Uh-oh. Simeon Woods Richardson is Throwing Gas Again.

[John Bonnes]

FORT MYERS - Last year, Simeon Woods Richardson's four-seam fastball averaged 90.4 mph. Monday, in his 2024 spring training debut, Woods Richardson threw eight fastballs. The slowest was 92.1 mph. Two of the eight were over 94 mph. Last year - over the whole year - he did that once. In 884 pitches.

Image courtesy of Kim Klement

This is potentially big news, because Simeon Woods Richardson has had a velocity problem. Since being acquired by the Twins as part of the José Berríos trade, he's seen his velocity - and prospect status - decline. Last year, as a 22-year-old, that resulted in an unsightly 4.91 ERA at Triple-A St. Paul. Even given his relative youth, there were plenty of concerns. What had happened to the velocity?

"I honestly think it was from being so over the top," said Woods Richardson, talking about his arm slot. "I wasn't able to use my full potential."

The idea behind being over the top was that it allowed his pitches to be more deceptive, to disguise the pitches longer to the batter. But it appears the side effect of that was to significantly hinder his natural athleticism. So, over the offseason, he and the Twins decided to try something new.

"It was from both parties," Woods Richardson said. "I wanted to change for the better, and why not? And they said, 'OK, let's sit down. Let's talk about this.' And we came up with a couple of things, working on mechanical stuff. Let's see if we can drop the slot a little bit and see where it goes."

So Richardson got to spring training a month early and started working on becoming more "rotational," meaning he throws a little more across his body than up and down. Both Woods Richardson and Twins officials thought that work looked like it had been paying off, at least in the bullpen. 

But the real proving ground is a game where the adrenaline is flowing. Among the most difficult proving grounds is George M. Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees' spring training park. Woods Richardson started Monday and was lucky enough to test his new stuff versus DJ LeMahieu, Juan Soto, and Gleyber Torres. ?

Three up .... three down. With a strikeout of Soto for good measure. And eight fastballs over 92 mph. His release point was, indeed, noticeably different from the 2023 Woods Richardson:

And from that change in delivery came a change in movement, too, as well as the added velocity that came from a freer arm swing. His fastball was a true fastball again, rather than a cutter. His slider had more consistent depth, and much more separation from that fastball. The changeup is a more functional pitch against a lefty, with greater run away from them.

Three batters doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But a long journey starts with a first step. It also goes a lot faster - and is a lot more fun - if you add a little velocity.

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[Major League Ready]

This is very good news.  His ceiling just went up.  However, it appears from the graph that the arm slot has reduced the break in his off-speed stuff.   The fastball looks too straight.  Hopefully, this is just a SSS thing.  

[Kenny Powers]

Good read.  I was watching the Gamecast pitch mph on MLB.com and was immediately surprised at his increased velo.  I saw 94.5 mph pop up and thought it was a mistake - but then hit 94.3 on the next batter. 

He is still only 23.  SWR and Canterino are going to be guys I'm going to be keeping an eye on this Spring.  I love this time of year!

[wabene]

This is welcome news. I had questioned earlier whether his extreme over the top delivery limited his velocity ceiling. Well apparently the answer is yes. Simeon is a big, strong, athletic young man, so the 90 mph fastball was curious. If SWR breaks out the Twins starter depth gets a needed jolt. 

[Doctor Gast]

Had no doubt that SWR would see what needed to be done & make the adjustments. High hopes for SWR.

[saviking]

Very nice increase from 90.4 but not sure i would call it throwing gas ..But great news ..

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is very good news.  His ceiling just went up.  However, it appears from the graph that the arm slot has reduced the break in his off-speed stuff.   The fastball looks too straight.  Hopefully, this is just a SSS thing.  

Not that I completely understand what makes up these metrics, but at least one Stuff model likes the changes in his fastball.

Also worth noting that he's gained ~150 RPMs on the slider and it's more of a gyro slider now with 5 inches more vertical break and an inch less horizontal break. The changeup is moving 1 inch less vertically and just under 2 inches less horizontally, but the extra 2.4 mph of velo should help offset that. Of course, he only threw 17 pitches and Statcast probably isn't perfect early on in ST stadiums, but I'd imagine the velocity and movement profiles should be pretty quick to stabilize. 

[Trov]

Yes three batters does not mean much, but having higher velo and when you look at his last couple months of last season he put up good numbers. He will be an interesting one to watch this spring, and could be the first call up like Ober was last year and take off running if he is doing well. 

[High heat]

I sat and watched his bullpen and warm up yesterday.  The circle change up and the command of it will make or break him.  Glad the radar gun was popping mid 90s.

 

I was much more impressed with Jair Camargo.  He has a cannon!  And is a big boy and the ball he hit to third for a single was scorched!

[MinnInPa]

just dont see upside to this guy ..ceiling is #5 rotation guy ..or long relief mop up duty guy.. hope he proves me wrong

[CRF]

It's great that his velo is up, but 94-95 isn't exactly what I'd consider "throwing gas". It's not bad, but there are loads of guys in the bigs that can do that. Now, what Duran throws...101+, that's throwing gas!

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, High heat said:

I was much more impressed with Jair Camargo.  He has a cannon!  And is a big boy and the ball he hit to third for a single was scorched!

Funny how we don't have 100 articles complaining about Camargo being blocked by Vazquez. Maybe people realize catcher depth is important.

[Parfigliano]

14 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

just dont see upside to this guy ..ceiling is #5 rotation guy ..or long relief mop up duty guy.. hope he proves me wrong

I see SWR as taking DeScalf's spot before DeScalf gets 15 starts.

[DJL44]

This is great news. He didn't need much of a velocity boost to get him to a point where he could really be effective. Woods-Richardson fulfilling his potential would make this rotation 7 deep.

[Guest]

Can someone explain the (0,0) axis reference point? I cannot believe a fastball rises 18"± from the elevation point from which it was thrown. Thanks.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

14 minutes ago, Verified Member said:

Can someone explain the (0,0) axis reference point? I cannot believe a fastball rises 18"± from the elevation point from which it was thrown. Thanks.

If I am understanding this graph correctly, the vertical axis is actually "Induced Vertical Break" - or how much a pitches location differs vertically from where you'd expect a ball thrown with no magnus effect to end up. For fastballs, this is a measurement of how much the pitch "rises". So 0,0 would be a ball thrown with no magnus effect.

That being said, I don't understand why a changeup would have nearly the same rise as a fastball, and how a gyro slider would only just barely end up below a ball thrown with no magnus effect. 

[Mike Sixel]

I've never understood people that give up on 22 year olds in. AAA..... Here's hoping he progresses this year!

[Schmoeman5]

4 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is very good news.  His ceiling just went up.  However, it appears from the graph that the arm slot has reduced the break in his off-speed stuff.   The fastball looks too straight.  Hopefully, this is just a SSS thing.  

Is that an 8' ceiling or a 24' vaulted ceiling?

[Trov]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've never understood people that give up on 22 year olds in. AAA..... Here's hoping he progresses this year!

I do not think the team gave up on him, some fans may have after his terrible start last year, but if you look at his numbers from July on they were very good. Not great, but for being 22 last year at AAA his second half numbers were good enough to warrant an MLB look. 

[High heat]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I've never understood people that give up on 22 year olds in. AAA..... Here's hoping he progresses this year!

He was sitting 88 to 90 with a fastball and struggled with control.  Sitting that low velo you can not get major leaguers out without pin point control of all pitches.  
 

If he is sitting 92 to 95 with the movement he gets from offspeed and the rise on a fastball (makes the velo play up significantly) now you something.  The control continues to improve and he can keep the velo throughout the start and season he is absolutely a major leaguer.  If the velo is constant at 94 95 and the control and consistency of the slider and changeup he is a major league 1 or 2.  
 

His stuff+ is elite.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I do not think the team gave up on him, some fans may have after his terrible start last year, but if you look at his numbers from July on they were very good. Not great, but for being 22 last year at AAA his second half numbers were good enough to warrant an MLB look. 

Clearly the team hasn't.....but plenty of people here have.

[DocBauer]

I've always had very mixed emotions about SWR. The Twins got him in the Olympic year and his whole year was just a mess from being so young at AA, to not throwing in the Olympics at all, to then coming home and only getting a couple innings and then being shut down to rest. But in 2022 he seemed to really get it together and establish himself as someone to be excited about. And then comes 2023 where he stunk the first half, and was better the second half. But the lack of velocity was concerning.

So while I'm still in wait and see mode, the increase in velocity is definitely good news. That extra 4-5mph just really changes the timing of all of his pitches off of one another. He's going to get an opportunity this season, and hopefully he'll take advantage of it. A better fastball can do nothing but help.

[jmlease1]

30 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I've always had very mixed emotions about SWR. The Twins got him in the Olympic year and his whole year was just a mess from being so young at AA, to not throwing in the Olympics at all, to then coming home and only getting a couple innings and then being shut down to rest. But in 2022 he seemed to really get it together and establish himself as someone to be excited about. And then comes 2023 where he stunk the first half, and was better the second half. But the lack of velocity was concerning.

So while I'm still in wait and see mode, the increase in velocity is definitely good news. That extra 4-5mph just really changes the timing of all of his pitches off of one another. He's going to get an opportunity this season, and hopefully he'll take advantage of it. A better fastball can do nothing but help.

He really has had a messed up development track: between trades, the pandemic, getting pushed up levels, and some injuries it's been a pretty rocky road for the dude. But the good news is he's also just turned 23 this season. I still like his talent and if adjusting his release point helps his velocity and he can still sharpen his command, then he's got a chance. Right now he's somewhere in the 7th-9th place in potential Twins starters IMHO (clearly behind Varland, but could be ahead or behind guys like Festa or Headrick) and I'm looking forward to seeing how he responds in spring training and starting the season in AAA. he's showed he can be effective, but he needs to command his pitches and not hand out too many free passes. when he has that BB/9 down closer to 3 he looks a heck of a lot better than when it climbs over 4.

[jkcarew]

This seems mostly encouraging. First steps first and a fastball with a little more margin of error is very encouraging.

But how is a changeup that is 2 mph faster with less movement an improvement? Really small sample…so maybe it was just the adrenaline working against him.

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, saviking said:

Very nice increase from 90.4 but not sure i would call it throwing gas ..But great news ..

Same though here, If his fastball was averaging 96.3 and he touched 98, I would use the term “gas”.  It’s definitely nice to see him get the issues worked out tho! I hope it shows results in ‘24 with a better era/whip/fip

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

But how is a changeup that is 2 mph faster with less movement an improvement? Really small sample…so maybe it was just the adrenaline working against him.

The fastball was 3 MPH faster so he increased the difference in speed by 1MPH. Plus, a faster changeup probably has more movement.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, Trov said:

I do not think the team gave up on him, some fans may have after his terrible start last year, but if you look at his numbers from July on they were very good. Not great, but for being 22 last year at AAA his second half numbers were good enough to warrant an MLB look. 

Right - fans are fickle. 

[JD-TWINS]

It seems I’ve seen in TD posts thatcher was under 3.00ERA in 2nd half of ‘23….,.wildly wrong?

I didn’t & don’t look at pitching Stat cast graphs, etc. …… Ivdid see him throw v. the Yankees Monday and this “fastball rise” data seems strange. He was throwing darts at the knees with his fastball. It looked even quicker than the 92-94 he was registering - a bit of a peculiar delivery. Anyway, he dotted the ball in the black to Soto for called strike 3 & that was impressive.

[MinnInPa]

21 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I see SWR as taking DeScalf's spot before DeScalf gets 15 starts.

could be .. DeScalf has had an up and down career.. i haven't seen a lot of SWR ..but what i saw was average at best. no one to get excited about

[2wins87]

23 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Not that I completely understand what makes up these metrics, but at least one Stuff model likes the changes in his fastball.

Also worth noting that he's gained ~150 RPMs on the slider and it's more of a gyro slider now with 5 inches more vertical break and an inch less horizontal break. The changeup is moving 1 inch less vertically and just under 2 inches less horizontally, but the extra 2.4 mph of velo should help offset that. Of course, he only threw 17 pitches and Statcast probably isn't perfect early on in ST stadiums, but I'd imagine the velocity and movement profiles should be pretty quick to stabilize. 

This is interesting if, as I would assume, his version of stuff+ includes release point etc. in a similar way to Eno Sarris's.  SWR has always scored high in stuff+ models despite throwing 90 MPH, and I think a big part of that was his unique release point.  Something didn't quite translate from stuff+ to results in his case though.

His release point will be less unique now, but if it is more than offset by velocity and movement then the changes worked.  Will be one to watch this year.