Minnesota Twins Prospects: The Case for David Festa Over Marco Raya

[Ted Schwerzler]

Heading into spring training, it is officially prospect list season. The big three have all already published theirs, and we are rolling on here at Twins Daily. When it comes to Minnesota pitchers, should David Festa be ahead of Marco Raya?

Image courtesy of © Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN, The Athletic, and Baseball Prospectus have each posted their preseason top prospect lists for 2024, including top-100 lists. None of them had David Festa or Marco Raya among them, and as the Twins' fourth- and fifth-ranked prospects universally, the consensus is Minnesota has just three top-100 inclusions. However, Baseball Prospectus had Raya at 53 a year ago, before dropping him off the chart.

As we work through our top-20 countdown here at Twins Daily, Festa debuted at number five, while Raya checked in at the fourth spot. Is that the correct order, though?

First, look at Raya. We made him the higher-rated prospect because of a perceived ceiling. A fourth-round pick in 2020, Raya didn’t throw a single professional pitch until the 2022 season. He was 90-94 mph as a prep arm committed to Texas Tech, and he had a slider and curve projected to be above-average. With a three-pitch mix at an early age and good velocity to his credit, a frontline starter immediately became a discernible possible outcome.

It was just a 65-inning sample in 2022, but the 19-year-old Raya posted a 3.05 ERA with a 76/23 K/BB at Low-A Fort Myers. Success that soon is always going to get noticed, and that’s precisely what took place. Pushed to High-A Cedar Rapids out of the gate last year, he found success again despite being incredibly young for the level. His 2.94 ERA and 39-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 33 2/3 innings earned him a promotion to Double-A Wichita. That’s when things slowed.

Starting 11 games for the Wind Surge, Raya was lit up. He allowed 19 runs (17 earned) in 29 innings, and the strikeout-to-walk ratio fell all the way to 26:14. Nearly five years younger than the competition, it wasn’t unexpected that Raya would face challenges. Still, with only 127 2/3 professional innings to lean on, it’s hard to evaluate how he will adjust to them. 

The kid gloves with which the Twins have handled Raya will need to come off in 2024, if they're to find out whether he can be a viable long-term starting pitcher. He needs to see the sixth inning and the third time through an opponent's lineup in order to test his mettle for the role. How Raya responds to that type of workload can shed some light on what his actual ceiling may look like, but for now, it’s hard to ignore what Festa is doing out of the spot behind him.

Considered Minnesota’s second-best pitching prospect by some, Festa’s success has been a story of development. He was a 13th-round pick out of Seton Hall in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he saw time at both Rookie ball and Low A in his first professional season. Although he came into the pros at 21 years old, he's climbed two levels each season--impressive, to say the least. His 2.43 ERA between both levels of A-ball in 2022 made a mockery of the challenge, and while he was on par age-wise with his competition, it was clear he could have done more. Last season, Festa posted a mediocre 4.39 ERA at Double A, but his 104 strikeouts in 80 innings were eye-popping. 

Getting a late-season promotion to Triple-A St. Paul placed him on the doorstep of the big leagues, and it’s hard not to like what looks like a recipe for success. He has pushed the fastball toward triple digits and routinely sits in the mid-90s with the offering. The fastball is a plus pitch, and he pairs it with two major league-quality offerings in a slider and changeup. The combination of all three has resulted in significant strikeout numbers, but he has also put up ground ball rates north of 46% at every stop in pro ball.

There are still minor tweaks to make, and Seth Stohs outlined a couple of them in Festa’s top prospect piece. Getting a bit more crisp and working against upper-level hitters to start the year at Triple A will be helpful. He’s going to come with Minnesota to big-league camp, though, and working with pitching coach Pete Maki should give him concrete marching orders to take back to the minor league side when the season starts.

If Raya’s positioning ahead of Festa is about the ceiling, then the claim for a swap between the two involves the floor. We may never see Raya become a big-league starter, and the expectation for Festa should be that he fills a back-end rotation role at worst. He isn’t going to be an ace, but an arm like Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober who can slide into the middle of a group is plenty possible here. The Twins knowing they have that kind of arm so close to ready goes a long way when trying to figure out the depth for Rocco Baldelli’s group this year.

I have Festa pegged for an August debut, but we could see him sooner. The assumption should be that Louie Varland is the first starter to come over from St. Paul, but Festa won’t be far behind. With uncertain production from Chris Paddack or Anthony DeSclafani out of the gate, Minnesota will need arms ready to step up at a moment's notice. Festa has the makings of that guy.

Undoubtedly, it’s fun to dream on ceilings for prospects, and what Raya may be is exciting. Teams also need a level of certainty from future contributors, and what Festa already is should bring plenty of warm thoughts to dream about as well.

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Where do you fall in the Festa-Raya debate? Does the looming presence of Festa make you more ok with the team's failure to add a frontline starter this winter?

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it completely depends on what you value the most.  Festa has the more solid floor and is a more finished product that is closer to the majors.  Raya has the higher ceiling and has quite a bit more development ahead before he hits the majors.  For me, I see the value in having someone like Festa available sooner rather than later, so I would value him higher.  Will he have a better career?  No one can answer that, but if I’m placing bets, he seems like a safer place to put my money, even if the return isn’t necessarily projected to be quite as great.  

[DJL44]

There is essentially no difference between #4 and #5 on a prospect list.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There is essentially no difference between #4 and #5 on a prospect list.

Well, that is also true!

[Hubie29]

Wrong post

[jmlease1]

I think it's interesting in context of the top 100 prospect lists coming out to look at how Raya and Festa are perceived and have been. The way most of those work (except for guys like Gleeman) they value upside and projection over results, age is a significant factor in how they manage projection, and initial valuations and perceptions can be a little sticky.

So someone like Festa, coming from a cold-weather school as a low round college pick and not having any one tool to hang his hat on is going to struggle to get noticed even if he puts up video games numbers because he's always going to have something negative chasing him. he had a breakout year in 2022, but he did it in A-ball, so he gets the same bit that was assigned on Cory Lewis (not unfairly): you're a college pitcher in A-ball, so if you can't succeed there you're in trouble, because you're not lighting up guys older and more experienced than you. Festa did fine last season and he's developed the kind of fastball that should play in MLB...but he wasn't destroying AA.

Raya has been a guy that fits more of that classic prospect mold. He's young, he's got big upside, he's flattened A-ball at a young age, but the way the Twins managed him is going to keep him off the top lists, and his size hurts him with the guys who do these projections because they're going to make assumptions about his frame/size and without a lot more innings there's little to counter it.

But also agree with the statement that there's little difference between being the 4th or 5th prospect on the list...

[Fatbat]

13 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

There is essentially no difference between #4 and #5 on a prospect list.

Agreed. Great info in the post and at the end of the day its not worth splitting hairs. They should both be ranked as 4.5 but we don’t do ties so 4 & 5 it is.  Nationally, they should be ranked 104 & 105. 

[Doctor Gast]

It's the old ceiling & hype vs. proven experience debate.  Like with Lee who has proven experience & on the threshold of the MLB is #2  while Jenkins who has yet to play a full pro season is #1.

I'm very hopeful of what Festa can do in the near future, yet I trust the Twins know what they are doing with Raya, he's still young & I like his upside, it's close.

[Dman]

Have you watched both pitchers pitch?  Raya's pitches seem to move all over the place to me.  I think he has really good movement on the fastball and slider and I also like his changeup.  So for me Raya has higher rated stuff than Festa.  He also has more projection left so I can see why he is slightly higher.

To the OP's point Raya is only 6' with a slight frame and hasn't had a starters work load and pitchers of his stature generally have a hard time holding up as starters. So looking at that angle Raya doesn't look as good as Festa who has thrown a fair number of innings the last two years.

I like Festa's stuff but he has had trouble holding it through 5 inning's so he has his own concerns there IMO, but he has nice size and hasn't had any arm issues to this point so he looks like the next Louie Varland to me.  

I know it seems counter intuitive but in a projection system I still think Raya comes out ahead because of the good stuff and decent command and mainly his age as he is 2 and a half years younger than Festa and just one level behind. Age is generally weighted pretty heavily unless you have some other unique trait to overcome it.

In the end I like both and am happy the Twins have them.  Hopefully both reach their ceiling as mid rotation starters.

[Nashvilletwin]

I thought we have 4 consensus top 100s in Jenkins, Lee, ERod and Gabby? Maybe Gabby isn’t on all of them. But he is #4 in our system according to the national rankers.

So there really isn’t much difference between #5 and #6. Honestly, if Festa is our #6 starter next year replacing DeScalafani and both are solid #3-#4 rotation types in 2026, we all should be pleased as punch. No one really cares much where they are relative to one another in the rankings.  

[Jocko87]

29 minutes ago, Dman said:

Have you watched both pitchers pitch?  Raya's pitches seem to move all over the place to me.  I think he has really good movement on the fastball and slider and I also like his changeup.  So for me Raya has higher rated stuff than Festa.  He also has more projection left so I can see why he is slightly higher.

To the OP's point Raya is only 6' with a slight frame and hasn't had a starters work load and pitchers of his stature generally have a hard time holding up as starters. So looking at that angle Raya doesn't look as good as Festa who has thrown a fair number of innings the last two years.

I like Festa's stuff but he has had trouble holding it through 5 inning's so he has his own concerns there IMO, but he has nice size and hasn't had any arm issues to this point so he looks like the next Louie Varland to me.  

I know it seems counter intuitive but in a projection system I still think Raya comes out ahead because of the good stuff and decent command and mainly his age as he is 2 and a half years younger than Festa and just one level behind. Age is generally weighted pretty heavily unless you have some other unique trait to overcome it.

In the end I like both and am happy the Twins have them.  Hopefully both reach their ceiling as mid rotation starters.

The size and frame is the differentiator to me.  I just find it hard to project a tiny guy so high when its basically an inside straight flush draw for someone of that stature to be a solid major league pitcher.  His stuff better be good before he breaks down.  The Pedros and Lincecums and Wagners are the outliers and there's not really a subset of tiny pitchers that are just OK.  Sonny Gray, Marcus Stroman and Berrios are all built much stouter as well.

Raya is lucky to be 165 with a pocket full of rocks.  He doesn't look like a guy that will fill out a whole lot.  That's incredibly concerning. 

If prospect rankings are about projection, mainly, his stature unfortunately makes his window much smaller.  Festa projects with many more options for success at the next level.

[tony&rodney]

I'm not feeling the love on Twins Daily for David Festa that I have for him. Fangraphs may give Festa a boost because they have a guy or two who like the tall skinny pitcher.

Don't know what to think from reading and seeing so many blah forecasts on Festa. I have seen both Raya and Festa pitch on multiple occasions and have Festa as the #3 Twins prospect ahead of Raya. Festa does have some warts. His control, which can be pinpoint, falls off rapidly in some outings and he seems to either tire too easily or lose focus. What do i like? Festa can totally dominate a lineup, including dicing through hyped players from Texas, St. Louis, and Dodger minor league teams. While Raya gets great movement, Festa has more velocity and better control when he is on his game. I guess Festa is still growing into his body and becoming comfortable with pitching. I have wondered whether he was basically just throwing the ball until he became a professional and now is adapting to the mental side of pitching. Hey, maybe he flames out .... or becomes a fixture in the rotation in early 2025. i do think Festa will get some outings for the Twins in 2024, but I don't beleive he is ready right now. I do believe that Varland is far better than any of the other options for a #4 starting pitcher for the Twins in 2024.

 

[EGFTShaw]

A couple of notes:

If the stats are virtually the same between 4 & 5 and they are interchangeable then the younger one should get the bump if only because he is doing it at an earlier age.  In this case 3 years difference.

Gabby is ranked #4 prospect by The Athletics' Keith Law.

PS - I am not pro or con either one.  I personally hope they all pan out and I am not quite sure we are quibbling here about the ranking of our own prospects that at the moment are good.

[specialiststeve]

Rayes with his health issues and stuff likely to play up as a reliever will likely be his destination in reality. 

Festa on the other hand has the body and the stuff to be a good #3-5 guy. He does need to sharpen his control and get physically stronger. See Festa getting a turn or two during the season if he can get some better control. 

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

Gabby is ranked #4 prospect by The Athletics' Keith Law.

Law spends a ton of time looking over information and tries to watch a bunch of prospects play. I actually like Law as much as any prospect speculator. It sure seems to me that he was quite familiar with Jenkins, Lee, EmRod, and Raya while seeming lost on both Festa and Gonzalez. Tough to know every prospect in the minor leagues, so if you have seen a guy quite a bit you might have different thoughts than Law. May not be true, but Law may have just put Gonzalez #4 because he didn't have much to refute other's opinions. Who knows? There is always a ton of guessing on prospects down the lists. You can see that among the differences that our experts on Twins Daily show in their lists.

[EGFTShaw]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

Law spends a ton of time looking over information and tries to watch a bunch of prospects play. I actually like Law as much as any prospect speculator. It sure seems to me that he was quite familiar with Jenkins, Lee, EmRod, and Raya while seeming lost on both Festa and Gonzalez. Tough to know every prospect in the minor leagues, so if you have seen a guy quite a bit you might have different thoughts than Law. May not be true, but Law may have just put Gonzalez #4 because he didn't have much to refute other's opinions. Who knows? There is always a ton of guessing on prospects down the lists. You can see that among the differences that our experts on Twins Daily show in their lists.

Agreed on Keith Law and his assessment.

I only added it here to give perspective to the comments about Gabby.

[EGFTShaw]

Keith Law's notes on David and Marco.  The following is for informational purposes only and not my opinion, but belong to Keith Law.  Bashing Law is pointless since I am quite sure he is not on the TD website.

David, ranked 8th.

Festa’s a 6-6 right-hander whom the Twins popped in the 13th round in 2021 out of Seton Hall. He’s developing into a potential back-end starter if he just gets another half-grade of control. He’s always had a 55 or better changeup and his velocity has ticked up in pro ball to the mid-90s, while the slider has developed enough to be a weapon versus right-handers, so he showed no platoon split whatsoever in 2023.

Marco: Ranked 5th
Raya’s a smaller right-hander who might have the best pure stuff in the Twins’ system, but he’s had trouble staying healthy and doesn’t pitch that much when he is on the mound, maxing out at 63 pitches in a single appearance in 2023. It’s 94-97 mph with a four-pitch mix; both the slider and change miss bats while the fastball has good life to at least limit hard contact. He missed 2021 with shoulder soreness and now has thrown 127 2/3 innings in the last two years. You have to develop him as a starter because of the upside, but you can’t reasonably project him in that role when he’s had this much trouble staying on the mound.

Just to add to this because KL has a pitcher between these two:
Charlee Soto: ranked 7th
Soto was the Twins’ second pick, 34th-overall in the 2023 draft, earning a bonus just under $2.5 million after a spring where he’d show three plus pitches … if you saw him at all, as he pitched somewhat infrequently for a Florida high schooler. He’s hit 98 mph with some life to it, probably more for sink than ride up top for whiffs, and can both spin a hard slider and show a split-change with late fade. He didn’t turn 18 until after the draft, so the Twins gave him the summer off. He’s inexperienced and it can show on the mound in terms of command and sequencing. It’s probably No. 2 starter ceiling, depending of course on him staying healthy with this kind of arm strength at his age.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

Have you watched both pitchers pitch?  Raya's pitches seem to move all over the place to me.  I think he has really good movement on the fastball and slider and I also like his changeup.  So for me Raya has higher rated stuff than Festa.  He also has more projection left so I can see why he is slightly higher.

To the OP's point Raya is only 6' with a slight frame and hasn't had a starters work load and pitchers of his stature generally have a hard time holding up as starters. So looking at that angle Raya doesn't look as good as Festa who has thrown a fair number of innings the last two years.

I like Festa's stuff but he has had trouble holding it through 5 inning's so he has his own concerns there IMO, but he has nice size and hasn't had any arm issues to this point so he looks like the next Louie Varland to me.  

I know it seems counter intuitive but in a projection system I still think Raya comes out ahead because of the good stuff and decent command and mainly his age as he is 2 and a half years younger than Festa and just one level behind. Age is generally weighted pretty heavily unless you have some other unique trait to overcome it.

In the end I like both and am happy the Twins have them.  Hopefully both reach their ceiling as mid rotation starters.

I get their close and both have upside. I have not seen Raya but have seen Festa in clip from Future’s Game. He looked good to me - very specific footage, granted.

One thing I think is true though - can’t be very critical of Festa’s inability to get through 5 innings comfortably & having Raya never pitched completely through the line-up a second time. Seems contradictory?

Could be a problem for them both!!

Good news is the Twins Pen is strong enough to support a few starts when the guy only goes 3 2/3 - 5 1/3 in a start. I really think Festa is starting 2-3 games by June.

Relating to article, it seems Festa is closer but Raya may have more upside……. nobody really knows at this point. Interesting to see where they fit in April of ‘25.

[Linus]

I don’t care about prospect rankings I’ll be happy if either becomes a regular starter in the bigs. One disconcerting thing is Festa seems similar to Balazovic to me. Big guys with live arms that dominated the low minors and started to show some red flags at AA. I certainly hope his outcome is better. 

[High heat]

 I am much more of a closer to big league guy should be more valued l.  Yes you have seen the warts but atleast you have seen.  
 

why haven’t you let Raya go deeper into starts?  Is it durability which means he likely won’t stand the test of time even at the big leagues. Or all he is is a reliever?  
 

He hasn’t even dominated in short starts.  Rayas has to learn to go through the order a second and third time and get double A hitters out. 
 

I like the 6’6 big body of Festa and not sure he can’t continue to develop and be more than just a back end starter.  He has velo and a continued development and adjustment make a big difference. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, High heat said:

why haven’t you let Raya go deeper into starts?  Is it durability which means he likely won’t stand the test of time even at the big leagues. Or all he is is a reliever?  

I remember some discussion that his growth plate in his elbow might not have completely fused. That may be just speculation. He is still really young and is probably not maxed out physically.

[gman]

I am glad they are both pitching for the Twins system and climbing the prospect ladder. I think Festa can some starts for the Twins this year and perhaps next year for Raya. The more guys they can bring in as possible mid rotation starters the better chance one of them  will move up to the top of the rotation.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

One disconcerting thing is Festa seems similar to Balazovic to me. Big guys with live arms that dominated the low minors and started to show some red flags at AA.

JB is 6'-5" and listed at 215 pounds (looking bigger). DF is 6'-6" and listed at 185 pounds (looking like 155).

JB had AA/AAA WHIPs of 1.40, 1.97, and 1.73 with BAA of .255, .338, and .269. Jordan had innings where he looked good but really struggled at AA and AAA in the last three years. He is still in the system and will be at AAA.

Festa only pitched at AA and AAA last season. He looked really good for 3-5 innings before losing it at times. In AA, DF had a WHIP of 1.36, a BAA of .249 with less hits than innings pitched and a ton more strikeouts than innings. In only 12 innings at AAA, DF had 15 SO but also 9 walks. The BAA was .222.

A bunch of numbers that essentially say that Festa has to refine his control but can dominate hitters at AAA, whereas Balazovic really never got his feet settled above A ball.

Festa is still learning how to focus but seems to be growing quickly into a potential beast on the mound. Balazovic was all over the place in every inning I saw him with little apparent understanding of how to pitch. He was a thrower in AAA. We shall see, but I think you would really enjoy watching the skinny guy pitch.

 

[nicksaviking]

I just don't buy the 'floor' argument for pitching prospects. Every single one of them has the same floor, that being a complete bust.

Raya certainly has both benefited and been hurt by small sample sizes. While his first 13 innings in AA were a disaster, his last 16 were nearly flawless. One run and three walks in those last five outings. And outside of those first 13 innings in AA, his control has been decent, something Festa can't claim. And if there's one thing that torpedoes a good prospect's chances, it's giving up the free passes. Barring catastrophic injury, both of them have enough prospect equity to at least get their chance at the majors, but I honestly think Raya has a better chance of making it, even if he doesn't approach that high ceiling.

[Linus]

46 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

JB is 6'-5" and listed at 215 pounds (looking bigger). DF is 6'-6" and listed at 185 pounds (looking like 155).

JB had AA/AAA WHIPs of 1.40, 1.97, and 1.73 with BAA of .255, .338, and .269. Jordan had innings where he looked good but really struggled at AA and AAA in the last three years. He is still in the system and will be at AAA.

Festa only pitched at AA and AAA last season. He looked really good for 3-5 innings before losing it at times. In AA, DF had a WHIP of 1.36, a BAA of .249 with less hits than innings pitched and a ton more strikeouts than innings. In only 12 innings at AAA, DF had 15 SO but also 9 walks. The BAA was .222.

A bunch of numbers that essentially say that Festa has to refine his control but can dominate hitters at AAA, whereas Balazovic really never got his feet settled above A ball.

Festa is still learning how to focus but seems to be growing quickly into a potential beast on the mound. Balazovic was all over the place in every inning I saw him with little apparent understanding of how to pitch. He was a thrower in AAA. We shall see, but I think you would really enjoy watching the skinny guy pitch.

 

I e watched him pitch. The numbers you cited are pretty similar. Festa will need to obtain the command JB couldnt to be a big league pitcher. 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

Am I out of line to think Festa is a mid-rotation starter in MLB if everything goes well and Raya may be a really good setup guy out of the bullpen?

[wabene]

There can be a huge void between the 4th and 5th, or any 2 consecutive rankings in any list. In our list right now #3 ERod is a consensus top 50 guy while #4 Gabby G sits outside the top 100. That is a wide gulf. It is a small point I make.

Festa and Raya are similar even with the 6 inch height difference in that they struggle with endurance. They are both slight. They could both hop on Louie Varland's back while he does his squats. I'm curious to see how they look coming into camp this year. Festa is entering his mid 20's and may just remain a rail thin guy. I'm hoping to see a little more beef on both of them this season. 

[old nurse]

I think the green M&Ms taste better than the red ones.  I also remember people saying Berrios was too small to be a great pitcher. It really doesn’t matter which on is ranked over the other. They are both in development and Festa got a head start 

________ missed 20– due to a ligament tear that required Tommy John surgery, and then he struggled to miss bats in 20– and 20– while throwing a nearly elite level of strikes. His stuff is up. His fastball sat in the 92-96 range with life last year and touched 97. _______ does it easy and commands his fastball, average breaking ball, and changeup. He’s gone from projecting as an up-and-down arm to a potential No. 4/5 starter in the last year.

Fill in the name  blanks. What Festa or Raya can or can not be is far from determined or determinable 

[TwinsDr2021]

They both are more likely to end up like Fernado Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Mejia, Jorge than future rotation pieces for years to come. But with that said Festa could end up like Kyle Gibson and Raya like Berrios so I think Raya is the higher rated prospect, but I think Festa is the most likely to for sure end up in the majors.

The question I always ask myself is what separates Tanner Bibee and Joe Ryan types from Cole Sands, Josh Winder and 100's of other similar prospects.

[jkcarew]

I’m not fully educated regarding Raya’s raw stuff (across three pitches) as it would compare to Festa’s. 
 

But for me it would need to be significantly better than Festa’s for me to rank Raya higher as a prospect than Festa. Festa has the much better stature/frame for starting, and he’s much closer. Raya has a less-than-ideal frame and to this point, there’s no actual evidence that Raya can handle being a starter except for some opinions. Maybe this year we start getting more data on Raya working more consistently through 4+ innings, etc.