Late in the off-season…time for high-end, discount shopping?

[Parfigliano]

18 minutes ago, RaoulDuke said:

Saw a rumor that a mystery team had appeared for Soler.  He could be a good fit here, big RH power that can slot into DH and some OF.  Not sure if they will want to meet the asking price but they haven't strayed away from big power with contact issues. 

Martinez is kinda the same boat but older and DH only.

Montgomery would be awesome but saving 5 mil on Polanco isn't going to suddenly let them sign someone to 20+ million a year.

As someone else said a reunion with one of Solano/ Taylor/ Cron seems the most likely.  Cron had a couple real nice years in Coors before coming back to earth last year. 

Didnt Morneau and Cuddyer win batting titles when Coors was home.

[FilthyMogwai]

4 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse. 

I like JD, but that swing and miss... Drove me nuts in the Houston series and he'd add to that.

[FilthyMogwai]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Didnt Morneau and Cuddyer win batting titles when Coors was home.

Yuppers!  Cuddyer with a .331 in 2013 and Morneau .319 in 2014. Darn. Time flies.

[AlwaysinModeration]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm really curious about the comments that suggest the Twins may sign a free agent to a big contract Do people really believe that will occur?

I took Falvey saying the Twins will allocate the savings on dumping Polanco as there will be a signing for around $5-8 million. But hey if the Twins sign Bellinger and Snell it is fine with me.

Do I really believe it will occur?  No.  But if you’d told me they’d sign Josh Donaldson and Correa (twice!), I’d never have believed you in a million years.  

Maybe they have exactly $5mm to spend.  Or…maybe, just maybe…they’ve got a bit of flexibility to sign someone if the right situation arises, and this extra $5mm helps them get there.

Doesn’t seem likely.  But we’ve been surprised before.

 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

JD Martinez would be a good fit in the middle of the order. I think he would bring what Nelson Cruz brought to the plate and the clubhouse. 

JD Martinez would be a fantastic gamble. 

The same people who who don't like him now didn't  like him last offseason either.

RH power, fills a middle of the order spot. We don't have enough bats to think we can fill the DH spot every day.

.893 OPS in 2023. Among Twins only Royce Lewis beat that last year.

[RaoulDuke]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want Solar, but if I'm honest, my justification for not wanting him isn't as strong as it is for every other offensive player. It basically boils down to never trusting a contract year bounce back player and why are his strikeout numbers so wildly inconsistent?

Ya I am not super high on him but he does fit and they have signed that type of player. 

If its a decent deal he could be a positive piece, I wouldn't want them to go 3 years and I wouldn't want it over 11 or 12 a year.  Kinda Gallo 2.0 and hope it works? 

[RaoulDuke]

2 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Didnt Morneau and Cuddyer win batting titles when Coors was home.

Ya that was why I mentioned it was Coors, it does skew offensive numbers.  But if its a bargain bin contract, 75% of Crons production there might be a good platoon bat/ insurance on Kiriloff.  That being said he might just be cooked as well last year he had plenty of time in Coors and didn't produce.

Just seems like it would be in the price range they are presumably shopping in.

[pierre75275]

I don't see JD Martinez as fit necessarily, bc of having one person as a DH. If they do sign JD I think that would signal that instead of limping or DH along with Buxton he would go to the DL. 

I think Cody B, Jordan M, Blake Snell would be the three best opportunities for Correa type contracts of all them, if the Twins would go that route.

Otherwise we are pry looking a reunion of Donnie or MAT, or someone like Adam Duvall 

[Major League Ready]

22 hours ago, Dman said:

I don't see any multi year deals for the Twins this late as they are likely hunting one year deals. I think they will want to keep payroll flexible in future years here to counter arb raises and to have money for extensions.  We'll see what happens.  

Just to support your point.., They will have 11 arbitration eligible players next year.  Plus, Lopez will be getting a raise of $13.5M.  However, if they get a decent TV deal, there will still be room.  Kepler's salary comes off and they just might try to move Vazquez or at least part of his salary if Camargo does well.  If they could move his salary, they would only be at around $110-115M with arbitration (est) raises depending on how salary they would have to eat to move Vazquez..  The capacity is there for the right player.

[SwainZag]

16 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

Ya that was why I mentioned it was Coors, it does skew offensive numbers.  But if its a bargain bin contract, 75% of Crons production there might be a good platoon bat/ insurance on Kiriloff.  That being said he might just be cooked as well last year he had plenty of time in Coors and didn't produce.

Just seems like it would be in the price range they are presumably shopping in.

34 year old Cron coming off the worst season of his career just doesn't seem worthy of a even a discounted deal.  Not to mention his giant 2022 was extremely aided by Coors field.  His OPS at home was .955 while .619 on the road.  Pass.

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 1/30/2024 at 3:52 PM, Jocko87 said:

You are correct that they will likely get a nice late add but you are probably shopping in the wrong aisle.

Old friends MAT, Donnie Barrels or CJ Cron are far more likely than any listed.  

 

On 1/30/2024 at 5:51 PM, RaoulDuke said:

Saw a rumor that a mystery team had appeared for Soler.  He could be a good fit here, big RH power that can slot into DH and some OF.  Not sure if they will want to meet the asking price but they haven't strayed away from big power with contact issues. 

Martinez is kinda the same boat but older and DH only.

Montgomery would be awesome but saving 5 mil on Polanco isn't going to suddenly let them sign someone to 20+ million a year.

As someone else said a reunion with one of Solano/ Taylor/ Cron seems the most likely.  Cron had a couple real nice years in Coors before coming back to earth last year. 

I looked at Cron's stats and they are scary. Look at his OPS in Colorado 2021- first half of 2023. His OPS went from .905 to .789 to .723. Then he got traded to the Angels for whom he had a .519 OPS in 54 plate appearances (admittedly a SSS). He's now 33. Looks like a guy who's fading at the end of his career with that career possibly elongated by playing at Coors field. I don't think he would be a good add. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

What about Adam Duvall at 2 years/$12-16m total? He's older but still hitting and can play CF some and has played 1B in the past. Over .750 OPS 6 of the last 7 years and over .800 last year in Boston. Probably more of a .750 OPS guy outside of Fenway. Not great but would seem to fit our needs. Would be good on a 1-year deal but what I read is he's holding out for a 2-year deal. I like Soler short term, but he wants 3 years and I just don't think that's a smart gamble. 

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/30/2024 at 8:08 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

Just reviewing the last four off-seasons, the Twins Front Office has been active late in each of the off-seasons at the top end of the market.  And by waiting the market out, they’ve gotten some deals:

1/22/20:  Signed Josh Donaldson for 5 years, $92mm.  JD was the #5 free agent that off-season on MLBTradeRumors, predicted to get 3 years, $75mm.  Twins got him for a 26% mark-down annually.

1/31/21:  Sign Andrelton Simmons for 1 year, $10.5mm.  This wasn’t a big splash, as Simmons was #17 free agent, projected to go for $12mm.  But in waiting, the Twins got a 12.5% discount.

3/22/22: Sign Carlos Correa for 3 years, $105mm, with first year opt out.  Correa was the #1 free agent that winter, projected to sign for a 10 years, $320mm.  Twins’ patience landed them the top free agent in the class for a whopping 64% less than his projected total price tag.

1/11/23: Sign Carlos Correa for 6 years, $200mm.  After exercising his opt-out, Correa fell to the #2 free agent the next offseason. projected to get 9 years, $288mm.  This time the Twins didn’t wait nearly as long as in the previous years, signing him in early January—but they did have to wait for two teams to bail on deals over his physical.  Still, the Twins managed to save 30% off the projected retail.

It’s now late January, with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than two weeks.  And there are still several big names out there.  Could the Twins strike at the top end of the market again?

#2 Free Agent (according to MLBTR), Cody Bellinger, predicted to get 12 years, $264mm..

#4 Free Agent, Blake Snell, predicted to get 7 years, $200mm.

#6 Jordan Montgomery, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#7, Matt Chapman, projected at 6 years, $150mm

#16, Jorge Soler, projected for 3 years, $45mm.

#20, JD Martinez, projected at 2 years, $40mm.

History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.

Who’s it going to be?

Soler or Martinez seem like better bets.  But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

Montgomery for 5 years at $26M/year with player option in year’s 4 & 5 would be a fine signing to me.

Martinez & Soler are both essentially just guys that DH………we have Byron Buxton slotted there for a big chunk of games. Lack of position flexibility/ability seems to be counterintuitive to the Twins M.O. Both more $$ than willing to spend for offense…….Duvall is much better value.

Chapman is a non-starter with our infield depth. Signing Snell is nuts with his health history……….more Cy Young’s than complete games as an aside.

Bellinger - 12 years - seriously? Even 5 years seems like a stretch and anything more than $20M, with his ‘20-‘22 seasons factored in, the equation makes him seem like not somebody to consider.

[JD-TWINS]

On 1/30/2024 at 8:30 PM, tony&rodney said:

I'm really curious about the comments that suggest the Twins may sign a free agent to a big contract Do people really believe that will occur?

I took Falvey saying the Twins will allocate the savings on dumping Polanco as there will be a signing for around $5-8 million. But hey if the Twins sign Bellinger and Snell it is fine with me.

Maybe Duvall fits the high end of that $$ available number??

[RpR]

The online baseball rags have mentioned Twins interestin Duvall.

Excellent Left Fielder and has a good bat, it would not be a bad move.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

What about Adam Duvall at 2 years/$12-16m total? He's older but still hitting and can play CF some and has played 1B in the past. Over .750 OPS 6 of the last 7 years and over .800 last year in Boston. Probably more of a .750 OPS guy outside of Fenway. Not great but would seem to fit our needs. Would be good on a 1-year deal but what I read is he's holding out for a 2-year deal. I like Soler short term, but he wants 3 years and I just don't think that's a smart gamble. 

In the name of balance... one of the first things I check out is K%.

Adam is consistently over 30%.

My arbitrary line in the sand is 30%. I'm not interested in K rates over 30.  

Better balance in 2024 is what I'm hoping for. I'd like the team to continue to hit the ball hard and I'd like them to patiently swing at the right pitches so I assume that K's are still going to be part of the equation... However... that K rate has got to come down. 

Apart from that... Duvall is a decent ball player. 

[Jeff K]

On 1/30/2024 at 4:03 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

There’s almost a zero percent chance the Twins outbid the Cubs for Bellinger. The Cubs have both money and need. 

...and I can't say that I trust Bellinger to perform!  That's a hard no for Bellinger...imho!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Jeff K said:

...and I can't say that I trust Bellinger to perform!  That's a hard no for Bellinger...imho!

There are serious questions about Bellinger. I wouldn't want my team to sign him for more than four years and it's almost certainly going to take more than that.

[LA Vikes Fan]

21 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

In the name of balance... one of the first things I check out is K%.

Adam is consistently over 30%.

My arbitrary line in the sand is 30%. I'm not interested in K rates over 30.  

Better balance in 2024 is what I'm hoping for. I'd like the team to continue to hit the ball hard and I'd like them to patiently swing at the right pitches so I assume that K's are still going to be part of the equation... However... that K rate has got to come down. 

Apart from that... Duvall is a decent ball player. 

Good point. It's one of the reasons I think Soler is a better fit - strikeout rates of around 24-25% rather than over 30%. They both have pluses and minuses - Soler is a bit of a butcher in the field - but on balance I think Soler is the better fit. He's also more expensive at more like $12-15m a year instead of $5-8m a year, I'd be ok with either one on a 2 year or less deal. Ig that can't happen, I say let's go with what we got and spend out money on a pitcher like Michael Lorenzen.  

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Good point. It's one of the reasons I think Soler is a better fit - strikeout rates of around 24-25% rather than over 30%. They both have pluses and minuses - Soler is a bit of a butcher in the field - but on balance I think Soler is the better fit. He's also more expensive at more like $12-15m a year instead of $5-8m a year, I'd be ok with either one on a 2 year or less deal. Ig that can't happen, I say let's go with what we got and spend out money on a pitcher like Michael Lorenzen.  

I got my wish list but I feel like having a wish list is a little Oliver Twisty at the moment. 

The budget is the budget... but I really really want a big bat. From somewhere... anywhere. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Here is my wish list and not likely to occur until further down the list.  

1. Montgomery - would fill into your #2 slot - too much competition and not enough money

2. Bellinger - Left handed but backs up 1st base and CF, the 2 biggest question marks - money and length of deal is likely a no go

3. JD Martinez - best quality bat left,  in the version of Cruz,  may be willing to go that route with a healthier Buxton. Likely not due to positional flexibility.  

4.  Ryu -  Could easily be a #3,  see this as an option. 

5. Duvall,  solid overall

Several other but start to get more questionmark. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Ryu is an interesting call. I guess he had TJ surgery in June 2022 and threw 52 late season innings for the Blue Jays last year in 11 starts.  3.46 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 1.288 WHIP. Baseball reference projects him for a 6-5, 4.40 ERA over 88 innings as a starter this coming season. Spotrack gives him a "value" of $8.1m a year. He'll be 37 this year.  I've read that the Yankees have interest in him as rotation depth. Would he be worth a 1 year, $8-10m deal? How about a 2 year $15-17m deal? Could be a good pairing with Paddack - 200 or so innings between the 2 of them. Might make sense on a 1 year deal if we can't get good RH bat.  And to me, a good RH bat is Soler, Duvall, or maybe Pham. Not Merrifield, MAT, or Solano (love Solano but no power and age 36, hard to see a repeat, same for Taylor at age 33). Here's an interesting thought - Sign Ryu, fill the 80-100 games Buxton can't play CF with Castro and /or Martin or Keirsey and rotate Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Farmer, Julien, Larnach, Wallner, etc. through the DH spot. Would rather have a good RH bat (Plan A) but I think this is a decent Plan C.  FWIW, my Plan B is a trade for a youngish starter using prospects other than Jenkins or Lee. I don't think we are going to bee able to pull off Plans A or B so C is at least another option. 

[FilthyMogwai]

I would love to see the Twins "test drive" another super star whose market may not be what he thinks, like Correa in 2022. I wouldn't mind doing that with Belli, but nothing longer than 3 with the opt out after 1 (just like CC). 

Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that the Twins are in the same position that they were in 2022; with a taker for Donaldson and a few years removed from Mauer.

If they could find a taker for Buxton, maybe but then I'd want a more reliable, longer term solution than Bellinger. And I don't see that in FA right now.

[KBJ1]

The only one on this list who might prove worth the price and be reliable would be Montgomery. 

We already missed out on Gurriel who can hit, run and field, so Soler for the same price isn't really an upgrade. 

Santana as a platoon/PH/DH is fine, but doesn't solve our lack of a RH OF bat.

Trade some/ all of what we got from Seattle to the Brewers for Devin Williams would be more useful as well.

Belanger is dreaming if he is worth 12 yrs.

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 1/30/2024 at 8:08 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

History would indicate that the Twins will sign one of these six guys before they break camp, and more than likely, they’ll sign him for a bargain rate.

Who’s it going to be?

Soler or Martinez seem like better bets.  But could the Twins pull another last-minute surprise by signing Bellinger or Montgomery?

Two weeks later, and the only thing that has changed (aside from it getting really late)  is that the Twins now have some extra cash in their accounts after the tv streaming deal was settled.  All of these top free agents are still available, with Bellinger and Montgomery in particular seem to be good roster fits for team—Bellinger could spell Buxton in CF and Kiriloff against lefties, and Montgomery would be the best LHP for their rotation.

Bellinger was projected to get $22mm per year, Montgomery $25mm per year.

What if the Twins offered either one of them the same sort of 3/105, opt-out-after-every-year deal that they gave Correa? 

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps not a favorable opinion, but the players within the system are as good as any available, except for Blake Snell who is a risky signing for any team. The pitcher to add and fit above or just behind Lopez had to come via trade and that ship has sailed. Adding an expensive free agent of dubious worth at this time will not help the team.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps not a favorable opinion, but the players within the system are as good as any available, except for Blake Snell who is a risky signing for any team. The pitcher to add and fit above or just behind Lopez had to come via trade and that ship has sailed. Adding an expensive free agent of dubious worth at this time will not help the team.

You believe there's a player in our system that could help the 2024 team more than Jordan Montgomery or Cody Bellinger? The Twins shouldn't sign them for a ton of years, but if they can get one of them on a deal like Correa's first deal (essentially a 1 year deal) you don't think they're more of an upgrade than guys in the system?

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You believe there's a player in our system that could help the 2024 team more than Jordan Montgomery or Cody Bellinger? The Twins shouldn't sign them for a ton of years, but if they can get one of them on a deal like Correa's first deal (essentially a 1 year deal) you don't think they're more of an upgrade than guys in the system?

These next few weeks should be interesting. Who is going to offer Montgomery, Bellinger, and Snell a contract. Snell has Cy Young Awards because he can be very good, yet is prone to slumps and pitching fewer innings. The Snell approach: 2 mediocre, CY, 4 mediocre, CY. He is a big gamble. Montgomery had two decent years and now wants to cash in. I hope he gets his money but I prefer Ryan and Ober over Monty and believe in Varland. The money is way off for the Twins. Bellinger would really help the Twins but I can't see even a sliver of a chance that the Twins add his salary to Buxton's for centerfield. It would have made more sense for the Twins to trade for Juan Soto if the team was looking for a one year deal, and that would have cost the team too many player assets. I just don't see any of those guys as a possibility and both pitchers are too risky for the Twins. The Twins are fine with what they have now. They had some options in trades and held the guys they wanted to hold and wound up with what they chose. It would be a surprise, to me, if the Twins pivoted and gave up a pile of prospects at this time for a starting pitcher. Just my take and I don't know anything, so we shall see what transpires in the next couple of months.

[SteveLV]

Soler and Duvall appear to be the FA's that might fit, shorter deals and good bats.

I don't see the Twins paying for one of the top FA SP's, but I also did not see the Correa signings coming either.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

These next few weeks should be interesting. Who is going to offer Montgomery, Bellinger, and Snell a contract. Snell has Cy Young Awards because he can be very good, yet is prone to slumps and pitching fewer innings. The Snell approach: 2 mediocre, CY, 4 mediocre, CY. He is a big gamble. Montgomery had two decent years and now wants to cash in. I hope he gets his money but I prefer Ryan and Ober over Monty and believe in Varland. The money is way off for the Twins. Bellinger would really help the Twins but I can't see even a sliver of a chance that the Twins add his salary to Buxton's for centerfield. It would have made more sense for the Twins to trade for Juan Soto if the team was looking for a one year deal, and that would have cost the team too many player assets. I just don't see any of those guys as a possibility and both pitchers are too risky for the Twins. The Twins are fine with what they have now. They had some options in trades and held the guys they wanted to hold and wound up with what they chose. It would be a surprise, to me, if the Twins pivoted and gave up a pile of prospects at this time for a starting pitcher. Just my take and I don't know anything, so we shall see what transpires in the next couple of months.

Yeah, I certainly don't see them signing any of Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger, but I took your statement that only Snell was better than their system guys to mean you didn't think Montgomery or Bellinger were. It will be very interesting to see what happens with those guys over the next few weeks. I'd put Soler on my list of players I'd like them to sign if they can get them for 3 years or less, as well. I'd actually take Montgomery over Snell, or anyone on our team outside Lopez, because I think he's a playoff stud and that's what I care about. I don't expect any big moves between now and the season, but I see a rotation spot open (would very much like to keep Varland in the #6 spot to start the year and upgrade on DeSclafani) and a lineup spot open. We'll see if they pull another rabbit out of their hats.