If Twins Trade from Offensive Depth to Get Pitching Help, They'd Better Be Right

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

But I think the Twins MUST do something to replace Gray & Maeda and picking up an Adam Dunn or Nick Senzel to cushion the blow of trading a Larnach or Kepler needs to be done.  Standing pat is not going to defend the divisional title.  It's not an easy job being a part of an MLB front office, and every year brings new challenges and uncertainties.  

I don't know if 44 year old Adam Dunn can really swing it like the Twins would need him to anymore. But I'd take him on my softball team.

In all seriousness, though, I agree that standing pat is not going to be good enough.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Varland looks like a relief pitcher

Does anyone remember that Varland had 7 successful starts in April and May last season? His performances showed an ability to go 7 innings. There can be no doubt that command and sequencing could use improvement, but not many pitchers blast their way through lineups in their first few years. 

It would be a mistake to put Varland in the bullpen next season unless the Twins add two pitchers who slot in above/behind Pablo Lopez. The Twins need to find out what Varland can do as a starter because he has the stamina, strength, and pitches to throw 180-200 effective innings in 2024.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Although these injuries happen with position players they are more likely to occur with pitchers.

This principle is pretty widely accepted, but I'm not so sure.  Remember how we ran out of outfielders in 2022?  Remember Royce Lewis tearing up his knee twice?  Remember Alex Kirilloff and his wrist?  The nature of pitcher injuries versus position player injuries may be different, for instance being more likely to result in shutting down versus trying to play through (and wrecking the guy's batting stats during that time), but I think we gloss over certain injuries while remembering others.  Correa's 2023 numbers were down and he had the foot problem - that's not the same as Mahle blowing out his elbow but both affected the team and how to work around them.

Personally, I am for trading position players to get legitimate arms.  The Mahle trade was the right idea but the wrong arm.

[TwinsDr2021]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

So right now we have Buxton, Castro, Martin & Gordon; all adequate or better at CF

One could argue that having those players at CF means you have nobody for CF. I personally think it is somewhere in between.

[stringer bell]

Many mentions of the Mahle trade on this thread. Would we be looking at it differently if the corner guy acquired was Miranda instead of Steer? Miranda, at the time, was considered the superior option both at the time and in the future. Given a chance, Steer showed himself to be a good major league hitter whose glove was adequate at several positions. I’m confident Cincy wouldn’t even listen to a Miranda for Steer trade now.

My point is choosing the right guy to move. Another example was the Giants getting LaMonte Wade instead of Jake Cave. Similar players, but Wade has shown himself to be a better player. 

[Heiny]

This has been a great thread and I find myself becoming more excited about the coming season whether we make a trade or not.  There are a lot of opinions here that I agree with and many that I disagree with but in any case I love hearing the opinions.  Also, some of you guys(gals) are downright funny.  The Star Trek bit was hilarious.  Now for my opinion,  I would not trade Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or Rodriguez, or any of our top pitching prospects for any one year rental.  I like our team and our prospects.  I want to see Martin and Severino in ST.  But if we have to trade for SP it needs to be for multiple years and even then I don't trade Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or ERod.  Just NO.  But I'd trade Rocco!

[Doctor Gast]

38 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

One could argue that having those players at CF means you have nobody for CF. I personally think it is somewhere in between.

I'm stating CF depth, CF takes priority, you can't have nobody at CF, you always put your best OFer there. All these guys are much better than Cave & have shown in the past they can perform there except Martin but like I said I'm confident about him much like I was for Lewis & Julien. I agree a lot hinges on how much we can depend on Buxton & development of Martin. During ST we can see enough of where these 2 stand & if we need a MAT to help cover any shortcomings, at the end of ST that will happen

[harmony55]

By the same token the Twins “better be right” if they make no moves.

Inaction carries risks just as action does.

[RpR]

Inaction, you know what you have -- Action can be a Pandoras Box that cannot be fixed.

[wabene]

Great thread. It is true that Miranda was thought to have more upside than Steer. Steer was perceived much like Schobel or Keachall as maybe lower floor (edit: I meant ceiling) utility type. It now appears that Steer may have the more complete bat, but you never know a healthy Miranda may surprise us. CES looked like a dangerous man to me with a bat in his hands. That one hurt at the time for me. 

Looking at upside, or all-star potential for our current crop of young position players that will be available this year in descending order I would go

Lewis

Very close behind would be Julien who I think has a chance to be the toughest, clutchest playoff out on the team.

Lee, could he be a more consistent, better fielding Polanco?

Kirilloff if healthy enough to really get in top shape, he can get to anywhere in the strike zone with that bat.

Jeffers, he could climb this list if he builds off of last year. 

Wallner

Martin

After that you've got some wildcards.

For me the top three are pretty much off-limits. 

 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Many mentions of the Mahle trade on this thread. Would we be looking at it differently if the corner guy acquired was Miranda instead of Steer? Miranda, at the time, was considered the superior option both at the time and in the future. Given a chance, Steer showed himself to be a good major league hitter whose glove was adequate at several positions. I’m confident Cincy wouldn’t even listen to a Miranda for Steer trade now.

My point is choosing the right guy to move. Another example was the Giants getting LaMonte Wade instead of Jake Cave. Similar players, but Wade has shown himself to be a better player. 

At that time, the Twins might have been able to get Mahle for Miranda straight up.

Though, there were reports that Carlos Correa personally took it upon himself to tell the front office they dare not trade Miranda. Might have had a Correa problem had they done so.

And who knows, this time next year Miranda could be back crushing it while the league has figured out Steer. 

[nicksaviking]

3 minutes ago, RpR said:

Inaction, you know what you have -- Action can be a Pandoras Box that cannot be fixed.

Which isn't good enough to win a World Series. And everything can be fixed.

You can't be afraid of change and be a good GM in professional sports.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Does anyone remember that Varland had 7 successful starts in April and May last season? His performances showed an ability to go 7 innings. There can be no doubt that command and sequencing could use improvement, but not many pitchers blast their way through lineups in their first few years. 

It would be a mistake to put Varland in the bullpen next season unless the Twins add two pitchers who slot in above/behind Pablo Lopez. The Twins need to find out what Varland can do as a starter because he has the stamina, strength, and pitches to throw 180-200 effective innings in 2024.

I remember a nice stretch, and I also know that he is 26 and as a 25 year old he had an ERA of 4.63. I also remember in 10 starts he had an ERA of 5.30 last year. I am not saying he can't be a viable starter, I am saying using analytics/probability he is probably better suited for the pen. I have no problem if the Twins bring in another pitcher and give him the fifth spot. But again if you are going to slide a position player over a few feet based on analytics they should be looking at prospects with the same approach.

[stringer bell]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

At that time, the Twins might have been able to get Mahle for Miranda straight up.

Though, there were reports that Carlos Correa personally took it upon himself to tell the front office they dare not trade Miranda. Might have had a Correa problem had they done so.

And who knows, this time next year Miranda could be back crushing it while the league has figured out Steer. 

I think it's entirely possible that Miranda and Steer flip-flop in terms of performance. 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm stating CF depth, CF takes priority, you can't have nobody at CF, you always put your best OFer there. All these guys are much better than Cave & have shown in the past they can perform there except Martin but like I said I'm confident about him much like I was for Lewis & Julien. I agree a lot hinges on how much we can depend on Buxton & development of Martin. During ST we can see enough of where these 2 stand & if we need a MAT to help cover any shortcomings, at the end of ST that will happen

My point was if Buxton is out for an extended period (which is likely based on history) they are left with two utility guys (one who has been solid and also gawd awful and one who was super valuable 1 year as utility player)  and a complete unknown, things could go real south in a hurry.

[Beast]

What offensive depth?  We couldn’t score a damn run in the playoffs when we needed to.  Willy Castro was taking pinch hit ABs in the playoffs.  We have no idea what we have in Wallner right now.  Larnach isn’t good.  Polanco, Lewis and Buxton can’t stay healthy.  People wanted to DFA Kepler last July.  Lee hasn’t played especially well at AAA and Rodriguez hasn’t played a game above AAA.  We don’t really have another prospect that’s a difference maker and close to the big leagues.

We don’t have a good offense.  The way I see it, we have two known commodities right now:  Correa and Julien.  There are big question marks attached to everyone else.  We have the opposite of depth.

[twinfan]

First of all, the Mahle trade was not a disaster- he simply got hurt so we'll never know. Secondly, San Diego plays in a much tougher division than the Twins. Yes, they fell badly and were poorly managed but they could not compete with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks or even the Giants- even with Snell having a great season.

I would not trade Polanco just yet. He is too valuable- even if as a fill-in- but should be the starter at second. Kepler should garner something with the good season he had so dangle him with a minor leaguer (or a Gordon type) or two for a pitcher that we can control for 2+ years. 

Alex Wood and Carlos Carrasco are still out there (wood would be my choice). Sean Maneaa and Mike Lorenzen are also available. Heck. If you really want to take a chance, Madison Bumgarner is due 5 mil a year from Arizona and may sign for just 1 mil to try for a comeback.

Who knows. Detroit seems improved enough to give the Twins a run for our money and we need a starter or two. I'd sign Burnes for 3 years if we could afford him but we probably can't. So do we sign Kershaw for 1 year? Probably not. Let's see what happens.

[Blyleven2011]

7 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading for pitchers at the deadline is risky business, their arms need to be carefully examined 1st. Mahle, Dwyer & Paddack's arms were shot when we got them. Yeah I know Paddack wasn't traded at the deadline but his arm was well known to be shot but it seems like they didn't care. Off-season you're not paying for the abuse some teams do to showcase their arms at the deadline. Yeah, it was difficult to give up Steer & CES when they could be used for better trades but at least they are getting an opportunity to play.

The Lopez/ Arraez trade is the model we are looking for. Lopez more than adequately filled our need at SP. And Arraez who was great with his bat but was our lesser option at 2B glovewise. filled MIA's need for offense.

I share with you the concern for depth. For depth, we need to look at how we sit at the key positions (CF, SS & catcher) defensively, Last season we were the deepest we had ever been at CF. & fortunately, we were because Buxton basically didn't play a single game at CF. But this season, Buxton is in a much better place than last season & Martin is in a good place to come up & impact this team sooner rather than later, So right now we have Buxton, Castro, Martin & Gordon; all adequate or better at CF. At SS we have  Correa, Farmer & Lewis (Lee could be brought up later in the season but I don't see him as a factor & I didn't include Castro because he'll be busy in the OF) are adequate or better. Buxton is very good at CF, Correa is very good at SS and at catcher, we have Vazquez who is very good, Jeffers who's adequate & Carmargo is unproven. IMO Carmargo doesn't have catcher in his blood & doesn't have the spunk, talent & motivation that Martin has to really take off. If we trade especially Vazquez that'll highly compromise our catching position. Jeffers thrived under Vazquez's safety net, the last time Jeffers was our sole primary catcher he bombed. 

In '21, PIT offered us Musgrove straight up for Larnach, FO didn't accept or gave a counter-offer. Musgrove was moved to SD for substanially less. FO decided to go FA & picked up Happ & Shoemaker & got the fanbase all on board. Needless to say Musgrove had a wonderful year pitching no-hitters & how did Happ, Shoemaker & Colume do? We had a pretty good team how did we fare? What would have happened if we went the trade route & picked up Musgrove instead like I had advocated, What I've observed is we take more risk in FA than in the off-season trade  route.

About the offense, we have a lot of offense, we had the most HRs in the AL. The problem with our offense is striking out too much (we set the record for the most) in clutch situations & not getting hits. The most important improvement on offense is ditching their "hitting HRs every pitch" philosophy. Where we can win more close games that we normally lose via SO's.

 

I had never heard the Twins could have made a trade for Musgrove  , must of been  later in off season and I was in Texas for the winter  ...

That does not sit right with me if they passed on Musgrove  , he resigned with San Diego  for 20ml per season  ...

[stringer bell]

The Twins are kind of in a box. They have much less depth than they did a year ago and really no money to spend, if they are at their payroll limit ($120M).

They can’t really afford to get any substantial free agents and they can’t (won’t) take on salary in a trade. They need to add pitching, which is at a premium, so maybe they could get someone’s 4-5 starter like the Mets did with Milwaukee, but it doesn’t really replace Sonny Gray. 
 

I don’t think they can count on being healthier than last year and expecting 2-3  guys to emerge is asking a lot. Having Buxton and Correa perform at or near peak could cover up a lot, but the odds are firmly against that. 
 

There’s enough talent to repeat in the Central and last year showed anyone who gets in can get hot and win, but adding little or nothing and losing eight free agents is a recipe for sinking to mediocrity or worse. 

[arby58]

11 hours ago, miracleb said:

The Cinci GM calls the Twin's front office daily....... trying to make trades.   Please, please, please.....don't answer those calls!

The Sonny Gray trade worked out fine.

[wabene]

17 minutes ago, arby58 said:

The Sonny Gray trade worked out fine.

Without the Sonny Gray trade the Twins don't break the streak and they don't win a playoff series. It is the Ying to the Mahle trade Yang, grasshopper. 

[RpR]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Which isn't good enough to win a World Series. And everything can be fixed.

You can't be afraid of change and be a good GM in professional sports.

Depends on the team.

Fear of change and change that results in minus performing players, fingers on the same hand.

[Brandon]

I was on board with this article until the author said the window of contention opened in 2019 and is closing.  We currently have a new team since then.  There are only 3 players on this team now from that year and 2 of them are on the trade block.  

I do like the idea of signing Ryu from Toronto and also note that if/when he gets hurt Texas will have 3 starters coming back from injury and we could probably trade with them for a starter if needed.  

[miracleb]

12 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Sonny Gray trade worked out fine.

Tell me that in 3-4 years.......

[arby58]

44 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Tell me that in 3-4 years.......

It still will, even if their pitcher turns out well. You play baseball in the moment. Would you, as a fan, been happy if the Twins had finished second in the division last year (or even first then lost three straight in the play-offs?). Sonny Gray was second in CYA voting, and he had a great season (granted, he laid an egg in the play-offs against the Astros, but nobody is perfect). The Twins may not have made the play-offs or beaten the Blue Jays without him.

Meanwhile, the pitcher in question is still in the minor leagues, and, while promising, there is no guarantee he will have two years as good as the ones Gray gave the Twins. 

Everything is a risk/reward calculation - and I will never fault the Twins for that trade, even if the pitcher they gave up turns into an All-Star (oh, that's right, so was Sonny).

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I had never heard the Twins could have made a trade for Musgrove  , must of been  later in off season and I was in Texas for the winter  ...

That does not sit right with me if they passed on Musgrove  , he resigned with San Diego  for 20ml per season  ...

I was keeping close tabs on PITT at the time. In PIT it was common knowledge. It might have made MLB Trade Rumors but was not in any of MN news that I know of.

[jmlease1]

40 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Tell me that in 3-4 years.......

I don't need to wait. Unless Petty becomes an elite starter we got exactly what we were looking for at a more than fair price. And even then, you're talking about 5-6 years from the trade, when we needed a starter in MLB immediately. If you're going to swing back in another 3-4 years and say "boy, we shouldn't have traded Chase Petty" then you also need to either admit you would have given up on fielding a competitive team during Gray's time here or explain how exactly you would have filled that hole in the rotation. Because we didn't have anyone internally to do it and Petty (who still has only thrown 8 innings above A-ball) certainly isn't ready. One of the reasons you're pushing Petty out another 3-4 year is dude still hasn't thrown 100 innings in a professional season, He averaged less than 4 innings per start last year and has a long way to go. I still like him, he was a good draft pick for the Twins but he's still got a long way to go and there's still plenty of hurdles to overcome.

There's real risk in trading some of our depth on offense to improve the pitching: it's hard to be sure which are going to be the right prospects to move that will maximize our value while hurting us the least by letting them go, but if you're going to make a trade involving prospects to improve the MLB team you can't obsess over whether or not a prospect might be a good MLB player in 2-5 years after the deal. Yeah, it's a bummer to move someone and have them turn into a regular elsewhere, especially if one of the prospects you kept didn't work out, but as long as you didn't give up a real star and you get what you needed, then it's the price of doing business.

This is why they were willing to move Petty: they needed a pitcher like Gray, and while Petty is a nice prospect he's not dominating and was far enough away there was substantial risk. Right now, we're looking at moving Polanco, who is proven but more expensive, but should bring a substantial return. Maybe they're looking at moving Kepler, but we've been hearing that for years and it never happens.

Twins aren't going to be packaging Polanco, Kepler, and 2 position player prospects for an average starter, either. We have the depth to move a player like Polanco right now without substantially impacting the offense; as much as I still like the guy, his production can be filled by full seasons from Julien and Lewis with the club (and I haven't given up on Miranda). We're not dealing Brooks Lee for a 5th starter or a 1-year rental.

There's risk in any trade, but ITA there's just as much risk in standing pat and refusing to deal. We have the ability to compete right now, but we need one more playoff caliber starter to be a real contender. We shouldn't be afraid to make moves to try and compete.

[Doctor Gast]

18 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was keeping close tabs on PITT at the time. In PIT it was common knowledge. It might have made MLB Trade Rumors but was not in any of MN news that I know of.

I could not find this PIT interested in a Larnach/ Musgrove trade in MLBTR.

[DJL44]

22 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Is it also fair to say…?

“If Twins Don’t Trade from Offensive Depth to Get Pitching Help, They'd Better Be Right”

Yes. The Twins margin for error is very small because they refuse to spend any money on free agency.

[Doctor Gast]

36 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I don't need to wait. Unless Petty becomes an elite starter we got exactly what we were looking for at a more than fair price. And even then, you're talking about 5-6 years from the trade, when we needed a starter in MLB immediately. If you're going to swing back in another 3-4 years and say "boy, we shouldn't have traded Chase Petty" then you also need to either admit you would have given up on fielding a competitive team during Gray's time here or explain how exactly you would have filled that hole in the rotation. Because we didn't have anyone internally to do it and Petty (who still has only thrown 8 innings above A-ball) certainly isn't ready. One of the reasons you're pushing Petty out another 3-4 year is dude still hasn't thrown 100 innings in a professional season, He averaged less than 4 innings per start last year and has a long way to go. I still like him, he was a good draft pick for the Twins but he's still got a long way to go and there's still plenty of hurdles to overcome.

There's real risk in trading some of our depth on offense to improve the pitching: it's hard to be sure which are going to be the right prospects to move that will maximize our value while hurting us the least by letting them go, but if you're going to make a trade involving prospects to improve the MLB team you can't obsess over whether or not a prospect might be a good MLB player in 2-5 years after the deal. Yeah, it's a bummer to move someone and have them turn into a regular elsewhere, especially if one of the prospects you kept didn't work out, but as long as you didn't give up a real star and you get what you needed, then it's the price of doing business.

This is why they were willing to move Petty: they needed a pitcher like Gray, and while Petty is a nice prospect he's not dominating and was far enough away there was substantial risk. Right now, we're looking at moving Polanco, who is proven but more expensive, but should bring a substantial return. Maybe they're looking at moving Kepler, but we've been hearing that for years and it never happens.

Twins aren't going to be packaging Polanco, Kepler, and 2 position player prospects for an average starter, either. We have the depth to move a player like Polanco right now without substantially impacting the offense; as much as I still like the guy, his production can be filled by full seasons from Julien and Lewis with the club (and I haven't given up on Miranda). We're not dealing Brooks Lee for a 5th starter or a 1-year rental.

There's risk in any trade, but ITA there's just as much risk in standing pat and refusing to deal. We have the ability to compete right now, but we need one more playoff caliber starter to be a real contender. We shouldn't be afraid to make moves to try and compete.

I agree with you jmlease1 100% up to the point of "we have adequate depth at 2B" because if we trade Polanco we will be forced to play Julien full-time at 2B which will compromise the integrity of our INF. IMO we are wasting our time with Julien at 2B where he could be learning to play 1B where he belongs. Polanco is a bargain, he has good numbers when he plays unnecessarily hurt but he has monster numbers when he's 100%. He's finally starting this season at 100%. So anyone don't sell him short.