The Chris Paddack Dilemma: Is He a Viable Starting Rotation Option for 2024?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Twins starting pitcher Chris Paddack has been a hot topic over the last week, at the national level. Are the Twins making a mistake by expressing what appears to be unwavering faith in an unknown commodity? Or will proceeding with Paddack prove to be a shrewd decision by the front office? Let's take a look.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

Between Royce Lewis's breakout postseason performance, Pablo López putting on one of the best postseason pitching performances in franchise history, and the cathartic ending of the Twins' 18-game playoff losing streak, there was a more understated (yet noteworthy) optimism-inducing occurrence late in 2023: The dominance of starter-turned-temporary-reliever Chris Paddack.

For much of the 2023 season, Paddack existed more as an idea than as a pitcher who could make an impact on one of the best pitching staffs in Major League Baseball. "Will he be able to come back and pitch toward the end of the season?" fans wondered, as reporters provided occasional insight into how Paddack was progressing post-Tommy John surgery.

Eventually, it was announced that Paddack would return from the 60-day injured list on September 24, right before the Twins started a series against the lowly Los Angeles Angels. Paddack was in line to make his debut against the Angels the same day, but a rain delay aborted what was supposed to be his grand return from a 16-month absence. 

Instead, Paddack returned against the Oakland Athletics on September 26, the same team he faced when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in 2022. He worked two innings, striking out four of the 11 batters he faced while giving up three earned runs, on four hits and one walk.

Paddack struggled in his first appearance of 2023, but immediately bounced back against the Colorado Rockies on September 30, striking out four of the 11 batters he faced while giving up zero earned runs over two frames. Paddack's four innings pitched at the major-league level and the 14 innings he threw in the minors convinced the Twins' decision-makers that he would be a worthwhile addition to the 26-man Wild Card Series roster against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Paddack didn't pitch against the Blue Jays in the first round, but he made his Twins postseason debut against the Houston Astros in the ALDS. In the two games he threw against the Astros, Paddack generated an incredible 0.27 WHIP and 14.7 K/9, striking out six of the 12 Astros batters he faced. He surrendered only one hit over 3 2/3 innings pitched.

Though Paddack wasn't the only Twins reliever who excelled during the postseason, the long and tedious road he traveled to get there is what made his commanding performance truly special. Fast-forward to the present, and the Twins find themselves on the brink of reintegrating Paddack into the role they wanted him to fill when they acquired him on Opening Day of the 2022 season: that of a mid-rotation starter. The Twins transitioning Paddack back into that gig seemed like a relative certainty to those who follow the Twins closely, especially with the recent departures of Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray. Yet, the decision to give Paddack a spot in 2024 has stirred some unexpected controversy at the national level. 

On November 28, Keith Law of The Athletic wrote an article wherein he recapped Maeda and Gray signing with the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively, and how the Twins could realistically fill the holes the two veterans left in the starting rotation. In his article, Law states that the Twins "only have three true starters left on the roster: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober." 

Law then went on to state that the organization has several former starters turned relievers, including Louie Varland, who, according to Law, "was very homer-prone as a starter last season," which is true, evidenced by his 20.6% HR/FB over 10 games as a starter. 

Also, Law mentioned Jordan Balazovic, who "hasn't shown enough command to even be a good reliever yet," as another potential rotation option. Law was correct to say that Balazovic hasn't shown that he could be a good reliever yet, let alone a starter, but to mention his name as a potential rotation option for the Twins in 2024 feels like a statement someone who is out of touch with how the franchise is operating would make. Law is one of my favorite baseball analysts, so I don't want it to appear as if I am bashing him. Yet, I want to provide clarity and context to his coverage of the Twins and their mode of operation before sharing what he declared next.

If one were to scroll down to the comment section of Law's article, they would see various Twins fans asking him why he mentioned Balazovic as a rotation option yet blatantly ignored Paddack. A specific commenter, "Jesse W." questioned Law's stance by stating, "I definitely agree with the conclusion that the Twins need another pitcher, but this was a weird write-up about their rotation. No mention of Chris Paddack, whom they're obviously planning on having in the starting rotation, but for some reason a mention of Balazovic, who is a guy they've pretty clearly given up on. Was this blurb written last year?"

Law responded to Jesse W., saying, "(Paddack has) never made 30 starts or thrown 150 innings in any year. Anyone assuming he'll do either of those things after he threw just 14 total innings last year (minors + majors) is ... well, to quote someone else in this thread, 'lazy.'" Law finished, adding, "If the Twins want to be unrealistic, that's on them. That's not the world in which I operate. The point of my paragraph on them is what they need to do, not what they might internally believe."

While it is understandable to question the Twins' seemingly unassailable confidence in Paddack, who pitched 18 (not 14) total innings in 2023 after his second Tommy John surgery in seven years and has never pitched an entire season as a starter anywhere in pro ball, to suggest he is not a viable rotation option--and maybe even that Balazovic is closer to being one--was bizarre. The front office must find a way to replace Maeda and Gray's contributions toward the rotation in 2023. They're not expecting Paddack to give them everything Gray did. He's a much better analog for Maeda, and that's the production they'll hope he can match.

Replacing Gray will likely end up being a group effort, effected by multiple back-end starting pitchers. The team might make a cheap free-agent signing like Hyun-Jin Ryu or Michael Wacha, or throw a combination of young internal options like Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa at the problem. To expect Paddack to shoulder that burden would be unfair and unreasonable, a mode of thinking that should be avoided at all costs.

No matter the outside perspective, Paddack will play a vital role in the success of the Twins' starting rotation in 2024. Whether he thrives in an expanded role or crumbles under pressure is yet to be seen, but when taking into account the front office's ability to trade for and further develop veteran starting pitchers (i.e., Gray and López) and watching Paddack thrive on the mound as recently October, there is reason to be optimistic about his outlook.

Was it unfair of Law to include Balazovic and omit Paddack? Do you think the Twins are wise to have faith in Paddack? Do you think Padddack will perform well in 2024? Comment below.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Well, I will say I feel more confident about Paddack going into 2024 than I did Maeda coming into 2023. Just for comparison’s sake 

[Doctor Wu]

I think Paddack is totally ready for a starting role in 2024. He's had sufficient recovery time from the TJ surgery, and everything I've read about him suggests that he is fired up and ready to prove his doubters wrong. Okay, I understand his track record, but he's still relatively young, and I think he's also very much motivated to put in some quality innings this coming year. That said, I think the Twins will be wary of him pitching TOO MANY innings in his first full year back. Another reason we still need a proven veteran in the rotation.

[mike8791]

Nice article!  Glad someone on TD brought up Law's comments.  They were quite a slap in the face to FO's faith that Paddack could step right into Twins rotation.  But, as you said, realistically, his ceiling is more likely Maeda's than Gray's.

Which brings me to my quarrel with your comments.  Based on 2023 this team showed potential to move into the top tier.  You can forget about that hope if their plan is to fill Gray's spot with the likes of  SWR, Varland, Festa or one of the mid tier FA's.  If they don't plan on a better add than Paddock,  this team will be headed in the wrong direction.  A Lopez-like trade is a necessity.  We have the position players/rookies to get it done.  This should be the top goal of the offseason.

[Doctor Wu]

14 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Nice article!  Glad someone on TD brought up Law's comments.  They were quite a slap in the face to FO's faith that Paddack could step right into Twins rotation.  But, as you said, realistically, his ceiling is more likely Maeda's than Gray's.

Which brings me to my quarrel with your comments.  Based on 2023 this team showed potential to move into the top tier.  You can forget about that hope if their plan is to fill Gray's spot with the likes of  SWR, Varland, Festa or one of the mid tier FA's.  If they don't plan on a better add than Paddock,  this team will be headed in the wrong direction.  A Lopez-like trade is a necessity.  We have the position players/rookies to get it done.  This should be the top goal of the offseason.

I'm quite optimistic about our stable of young prospects, but as you noted, unless we get another REAL difference changer in the starting rotation for this coming season, we may not even be capable of winning the division again. 

[Doctor Gast]

I have to admit I was skeptical of Paddack coming off TJ. IMO the 1st outing of a  pitcher coming off TJ shows a lot about his progress. Paddack has proved to me that he can be inserted into the rotation. Though his innings need to be limited & vamped slowly which a Paddack/ rookie Varland piggy-back duo would make a terrific idea. 

Although he has some interesting articles, I'm not a big fan of Law because a lot of his  ideas are way off. This is one of them.

[mikelink45]

Like so many speculations I cannot offer a reasonable response other than lets wait and see.  How can anyone judge operations, recovery, health, attitude at this point?

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm quite optimistic about our stable of young prospects, but as you noted, unless we get another REAL difference changer in the starting rotation for this coming season, we may not even be capable of winning the division again. 

I’ll take that bet

[Major League Ready]

15 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Like so many speculations I cannot offer a reasonable response other than lets wait and see.  How can anyone judge operations, recovery, health, attitude at this point?

This is a little different given the amount of time removed from the surgery.  The team has a fair amount of information based on his rehab and he made it all the way back to the ML level.  Of course, they will continue to monitor his off-season activities so they should have a reasonably good idea of what to expect from Paddack.  That said .... How many SPs make 30 starts these days.  Teams expect the need for depth, and I expect we will see moves to provide that depth.

[chpettit19]

The question to me is if the Twins have anyone behind Lopez who can start a playoff game. I think Paddack has the talent to do it, but what kind of shape is his arm going to be in by the time October rolls around? If they need to give him the Archer treatment and start him out with 4 inning starts and hope he builds up to 5 and then 6 innings I'm not overly optimistic that he's going to be good enough come October to be the #2. I know some people love Ryan, but I don't think he's a playoff caliber pitcher (maybe could be your #4 who only makes a couple starts, if any) because he's just too prone to the HR ball, and HRs win in the postseason. Can Ober put together a second full season, and end this one stronger than last year? It'd be a little surprising considering his IP totals up until last year, but I may actually pick him as the most likely one to be worthy of a start come the 2024 playoffs. That's not very encouraging to me, though.

Balazovich, Winder, Varland, SWR, Headrick, Sands, Festa, etc. are all nice enough regular season arms to help win this horrid division, but none of them should be counted on to start a 2024 playoff game. If one of them takes a leap and is that good, great, that's a wonderful problem to have, but going into the season expecting that would be a horrible plan.

Is Paddack a viable rotation option for 2024? For the regular season, yes. But the question after last year has to be framed around the postseason. Do the Twins have any viable playoff rotation options outside of Lopez for 2024? I'd argue it's not the end of the world to plan on 1 of Paddack, Ryan, or Ober being that guy, but they still need to bring in another from outside the organization. I don't think an IL stint here or there takes Paddack out of being a viable rotation option. But expecting him to do more than cover Maeda's 106 innings is probably expecting too much of him. Could he do it? Yes, it's totally possible. But should you plan for it? I'd say no. I hope they can pull another rabbit out of their hats and find a way to bring in someone who can go 150+ innings of 4 or lower ERA.

[mikelink45]

5 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This is a little different given the amount of time removed from the surgery.  The team has a fair amount of information based on his rehab and he made it all the way back to the ML level.  Of course, they will continue to monitor his off-season activities so they should have a reasonably good idea of what to expect from Paddack.  That said .... How many SPs make 30 starts these days.  Teams expect the need for depth, and I expect we will see moves to provide that depth.

In five years he has started 65 games - two years he was in the 20s.  He had an ERA under 4 during four years and over 4.7 in 3 years - he got over 100 innings twice - 140 and 108.  Yes he had one good year.  So why do we think we have the next Lopez/Grey.  I still say wait and see. 

[tony&rodney]

Paddack could be totally solid for 100 innings and he may take the ball as a starting pitcher for around 17 games. Expecting anything more doesn't seem realistic. I'm feeling positive about Chris Paddack.

[arby58]

49 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm quite optimistic about our stable of young prospects, but as you noted, unless we get another REAL difference changer in the starting rotation for this coming season, we may not even be capable of winning the division again. 

Like everything else, it depends. The Twins offense was anemic before the All Star break, and IF Lewis, Julien, Wallner can continue to perform as in the second half and if at least one of Correa and Buxton can return to form, the offense should be better. If the offense is better, the pitching doesn't have to be quite as stellar. 

The other thing about the Law article is it assumes the current young Twins pitchers will not get any better. I'm starting to think that may be the case with Ryan, unless he can develop a really strong second pitch. I'm not nearly as certain with Ober and Varland. Ober ran out of gas a bit and got hit, but that is a 'build him up' thing. Varland gave up too many home runs, but he's only started 15 MLB games. He had great success at every stop in the minors (and HRs weren't that much of an issue), and he lost the 2020 minor league year, so maybe it's just needing more time. The stuff is there.

[Blyleven2011]

Pitching proved that a quality pitcher can win in the post season  ...

We will have to acquire a quality pitcher through trade that has control and comes with  a lesser cost than a free agent  ...

Mediocre pitching can win divisions  but fail in post seasons against the better teams ...

Winter meetings are here , the FO needs to find this pitcher through trade and it isn't going to be a one for one swap like arraez for Lopez,  even though the twins did get 2 other prospects back along with Lopez,  but it still feels like a one for one ...

Every team is looking for quality pitchers  , so the FO needs to be aggressive  and get something done before other teams scoop up the tradeable pitchers available  ...

It would also be nice to get this done to generate some interest for Twins fest , since their payroll announcement has deflated some of the Twins fans interest ...

Paddack should be good until he isn't  , liked how he pitched in the small sample size at the end of 2023  ...

You could see the fire and determination in his eyes,  he wants the ball ...

[terrydactyls]

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I have to admit I was skeptical of Paddack coming off TJ. IMO the 1st outing of a  pitcher coming off TJ shows a lot about his progress. Paddack has proved to me that he can be inserted into the rotation. Though his innings need to be limited & vamped slowly which a Paddack/ rookie Varland piggy-back duo would make a terrific idea. 

Although he has some interesting articles, I'm not a big fan of Law because a lot of his  ideas are way off. This is one of them.

1. How should innings be "vamped up"?

2. Is it a fact that a lot of Law's ideas are way off?  Or is that just your opinion stated as though it is a provable fact?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

I'm quite optimistic about our stable of young prospects, but as you noted, unless we get another REAL difference changer in the starting rotation for this coming season, we may not even be capable of winning the division again. 

Honest question, who are the Twins stable of pitching prospects? I mean I like Festa, Raya, Lewis, SWR and some other prospects, but I am not optimistic of any of them being a factor in 24.

Raya has pitched 65 and 63 innings the last two years so he will be on a innings limit (with most likely in the minors), Festa has pitched 103 and 92 the last years so he is likely to increase that by a good amount, but again likely in the minors,  Lewis should also be fine on pitch count but will start the year in AA most likely so probably won't be much help until the summer, And while I like SWR I am not optimistic he will be anything more than replacement level next year.

I  agree with you on the division is not guaranteed next year.

 

 

[Fatbat]

31 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

In five years he has started 65 games - two years he was in the 20s.  He had an ERA under 4 during four years and over 4.7 in 3 years - he got over 100 innings twice - 140 and 108.  Yes he had one good year.  So why do we think we have the next Lopez/Grey.  I still say wait and see. 

I believe thats just an upside hope that he will be a solid #2 guy.  That might be his ceiling if he stays healthy.  I don’t think anyone can point to any prev production that says with any certainty that CP will be throwing 150 innings of 3.3era 1.17 whip ball. That just defies logic but damn it would be nice.  
lets just stay with the Maeda ‘23 numbers for now as that seems like a solid expectation.  The innings I want Paddack to throw are the 20+ come October 24.  Thats only going to happen if we sign another ace or someone on the staff steps up and reaches their ceiling and has as an absolute career year.  
Maybe JB is the next Varland, maybe its Festa. I think it’s a bad bet for the FO to not bring in another guy or two. But those $$$ are hard to come by. 

[Guest]

Paddack's arm never was fully healthy.  He'll have a sub-1.2 WHIP in 2024 as a starter.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Well, I will say I feel more confident about Paddack going into 2024 than I did Maeda coming into 2023. Just for comparison’s sake 

So Lopez and Ober are better than replacement level, and the rest of the rotation is replacement level (maybe a bit bettter)  or worse?

Doesn't seem like a real plan for a division winning team.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Paddack's arm never was fully healthy.  He'll have a sub-1.2 WHIP in 2024 as a starter.

In how many innings, the guy has 335 career innings and has been in the majors since 2019. I think he will be good this year and hopefully brought along slowly so he again can pitch in the playoffs if the Twins get there.

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

So Lopez and Ober are better than replacement level, and the rest of the rotation is replacement level (maybe a bit bettter)  or worse?

Doesn't seem like a real plan for a division winning team.

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are all well above replacement level. You've seen what replacement level is, correct? It's still up in the air a bit with Paddack, but his stuff was electric in the playoffs.

Yes, without any additions this offseason they are the odds-on favorite to win the division in 2024. I want them to add because JUST winning the division isn't good enough next year.

[TwinsDr2021]

24 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Ryan, Ober and Lopez are all well above replacement level. You've seen what replacement level is, correct? It's still up in the air a bit with Paddack, but his stuff was electric in the playoffs.

Yes, without any additions this offseason they are the odds-on favorite to win the division in 2024. I want them to add because JUST winning the division isn't good enough next year.

Joe Ryan's WAR last year was 1.2 which according to ESPN was 163rd in the majors behind the likes of Pagan, Brock Stewart and a whole lot of guys I haven't even heard of. Do I think he will be better next? Yes, do I think he will be as good as 2022, I am not sure of that.

Edit- The Twins only won 9 more guys than Detroit last year and went into the season with maybe the best starting rotation in my lifetime and with Gray and Maeda (for depth), Mahle and a stud starting pitcher waiting for a chance in the minors (Ober), they still might be favorite to win the division but it more than worries me.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ryan was legit good until he went he was injured 6/27. 

Prior to 6/27, he was 8-4, and in 93.2 innings he struck out 100, walking only 15, and had a 2.98 era with a 2.77 fip. He was a dummy and tried to pitch through the injury, and that wasn't smart.

After the injury, he was 3-6 and in 68 innings he still struck out 97, but he had more walks than previosly (19) and he had a 6.62 era and a 6.01 fip.

I don't know if he is AS good as his pre injury numbers, but his splitter/fastball combo was legit the first 2/3 of the year. I also don't at all expect him to be anywhere near as bad as his post-injury pitching was either.

 

 

[hitterscount]

It would be shortsighted on the FO to believe that they can fill the loss of Gray with internal candidates. I believe Paddock will be solid to start the season, but if they are fighting for the division come late August and September counting on Paddock being there is a mistake. 

It will be interesting to see how a competitive team is brought together with a significantly reduced payroll.  If the answers to the many holes on the roster is believing Buxton, Kirloff, and Paddock are the solution, it could be long season. 

I don't understand the signing of Correa and then cutting payroll if you are truly committed to winning. We saw last year that this team was really close to beating Houston and moving on. Paddock could be a solid starter, but they absolutely need a proven arm to replace Gray. Then find answers to CF and 1st base.   

[old nurse]

Only 40 pitchers last year started 30 or more games. Less than 80 started 25 games. 118 for 20 games If Law wants to deal with realism you can start with those numbers. A team would be foolish to think their 5 man rotation is going to hold up for the whole season. Or be effective for the whole season. It is not 1-5 it is 1-9.  Who are the 6-9 starters. If the starters are Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Varland and Paddack, that leaves Festa and SWR as 6-7. What you have for 8 and 9 get dicey. Bullpen games require a stronger depth than the questions Twins have on their roster. It is early December and not late March. The pool of available talent will get sorted out.. we want the the world and we want it now. (For the many who wouldn’t remember the line )

 

[tony&rodney]

The expectations for Chris Paddack need to be realistic. He is coming back from his second TJ surgery. Paddack has worked hard and the Twins brought him back carefully, which resulted in a brief trial bullpen role at the end of the season. The Twins will be looking at Paddack as their #5 starting pitcher and be judicious in skipping his turn in the rotation from time to time. A season of 100+ innings will be a success. Paddack is not comparable to Maeda on many fronts, from the type of pitches thrown to their experience. Anyone expecting Paddack to eclipse Maeda's pitching is searching for disappointment. I expect that Paddack will have a good year for the Twins. I'm not thinking he has the WHIP and BAA numbers of a usual Kenta Maeda.

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Nice article!  Glad someone on TD brought up Law's comments.  They were quite a slap in the face to FO's faith that Paddack could step right into Twins rotation.  But, as you said, realistically, his ceiling is more likely Maeda's than Gray's.

Which brings me to my quarrel with your comments.  Based on 2023 this team showed potential to move into the top tier.  You can forget about that hope if their plan is to fill Gray's spot with the likes of  SWR, Varland, Festa or one of the mid tier FA's.  If they don't plan on a better add than Paddock,  this team will be headed in the wrong direction.  A Lopez-like trade is a necessity.  We have the position players/rookies to get it done.  This should be the top goal of the offseason.

There are no sure things in sports, but Paddack is a great bet as a starter.  His upside is higher than Maeda's.

[Karbo]

IMO they will get between 100-120 innings out of Paddack with a sub 4.00 ERA and a sub 1.2 whip. They will definitely need to add another starter through a trade. If not pre-season, by the trade deadline. I think Varland will be OK, maybe a little higher whip and ERA, but I doubt they can get much more than 125 IP from him either. Looks to me like they could end up with an overworked pen.

[Nine of twelve]

First of all, I commend the vast majority of commenters here for spelling Paddack correctly. It shows that you are actually paying attention and have some knowledge of the subject matter.

I think Paddack will be more than just viable in the 2024 rotation. I expect him to be solid. He is an experienced pitcher and, SSS notwithstanding, he showed last fall that his stuff will play now that he has a healthy arm (for the first time in a long time, as Minderbinder pointed out). He also has the offseason to continue working on whatever he needs to do to be ready to go. IMHO optimism about him is justified.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Minderbinder said:

Paddack's arm never was fully healthy.  He'll have a sub-1.2 WHIP in 2024 as a starter.

Optimistic.  Hopefully true.