5 Realistic Offseason Moves That Would Set the Twins Up for 2024 Success

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have a few places to add this offseason, and if they want to repeat as winners of the American League Central Division, they’ll need to get things right yet again. Derek Falvey is operating with a different payroll, but there is a natural avenue to be better while staying cheaper.

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Minnesota Twins front office provided Rocco Baldelli with a franchise-record Opening Day payroll. It was a raise on the pocketbooks for another year and has been consistently moving that way for a while. With decreasing television revenues, it always made sense Minnesota may dial things back. Beyond that, though, having the possibility of ten players all pre-arbitration and making a league minimum of $740,000, dialing back was just part of an expected reset.

Using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool this is the starting point I am operating from. Working with the parameters we know now, buckle up for the moves I would make before Opening Day.

1. Sign Rhys Hoskins for two years and $40 million
This is probably a bit on the high side for Hoskins, as I’d prefer to get him at $18 million annually, but the Twins should do what they can to make him say no. They need a right-handed bat. Check. They need a middle-of-the-order bat. Check. They need a serious player at first base. Check. Hoskins checks so many boxes for Minnesota that it becomes difficult not to love that fit. He costs money rather than prospects, as Pete Alonso would, and takes significant pressure off any expectations for Alex Kirilloff. Coming off a knee injury that kept him out all of last season, there shouldn’t be any concerns in the future, and he doesn’t hamstring the roster construction in any way.

2. Trade Matt Wallner, Yasser Mercedes, and Andrew Bechtold to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Mitch Keller and Canaan Smith-Njigba
Moving Wallner, as a Minnesota prospect right after his debut, won’t be well received. Getting Keller, a Cedar Rapids prospect, after his first All-Star Game might help to soften the blow. Wallner is penciled in to start as Minnesota’s left fielder, but there’s an immediate alternative in the form of Trevor Larnach. You could make the case to include Emmanuel Rodriguez, but his ceiling is substantially higher, and Keller only has two years of team control left. Mercedes is only 19 and made his stateside debut in 2023. He has incredible tools but is raw as a prospect. Bechtold is at Triple-A and plays every position, including pitcher. 

Acquiring Smith-Njigba in the deal, whose brother is the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver, also gives Minnesota another outfield option. He isn’t a free agent until 2029, but has fallen down the Pirates depth chart despite being on the 40-man roster. He posted an .839 OPS at Triple-A in 2023 and will be 25 years old in 2024.

3. Trade Kyle Farmer to the St. Louis Cardinals for Dylan Carlson
Minnesota tender Farmer a contract not because they intend to keep a backup at nearly $7 million in 2024 but because the shortstop class in free agency is horrible, and he has the talent to start. Sending Farmer to the Cardinals gives them an immediate veteran alongside Nolan Arenado and shores up their roster should they keep Paul Goldschmidt in the final year of his deal. Prospect Masyn Winn is waiting in the wings, but he posted just a 29 OPS+ in his first 37 games last season, and this would allow him more time to develop. 

Carlson is a name the Twins have been tied to previously, and he has former top-10 prospect allure to him. The luster has worn off, but he hit 18 home runs while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting just two years ago. Carlson was hurt some in 2023, but even at depreciated production in 2022, he posted a 99 OPS+ across 128 games. The Twins may unlock more production from him, and he provides a switch-hitting bat that is substantially better against lefties. He could be the Byron Buxton insurance Minnesota needs to replace Michael A. Taylor or become a high-quality bench option.

4. Sign Harrison Bader for one year and $7 million
We saw last season that having a viable full-time starting centerfield option alongside Buxton is a must. Given the uncertainty of health at the centerfield position for Minnesota, having a couple of guys makes sense. Cody Bellinger is the gold standard, but that isn’t going to fit from a logic or dollars standpoint. Kevin Kiermaier could be an option, but coming off a strong year for the Blue Jays, he’s much more likely to get a multi-year deal. Taylor should be paid handsomely after his season with Minnesota, but Bader could potentially be had on a prove-it deal.

Looking at some projections and the fit with Taylor leaving via free agency, Bader would be a seamless transition for the Twins. He plays at a Gold Glove-caliber defensively, and while he doesn’t bring much to the table offensively (77 OPS+ since 2022) at this point, he was exactly league average by OPS across his first 451 major league games. He has also gone 37/43 in his last two seasons of steal attempts, and replacing that for Baldelli would be beneficial.

5. Sign Matt Moore for one year and $6 million
By payroll measures, this pushes the total dollars close to the high end of where Minnesota is projected to be, and that may not work. I’d love to see Lou Trivino, but he won’t be ready until midway through 2024 and may wait until then to sign. Dakota Hudson isn’t a reliever, and while Spencer Turnbull could be used as a long man or depth starter, pushing the envelope at the back end of Minnesota’s pen makes sense.

Moore was designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Angels, and Minnesota put in a claim for him, but he was awarded to the Cleveland Guardians. After Cleveland fell out of it, Moore was claimed by the Miami Marlins. He made $7.55 million last year, and a similar contract makes sense as he will be in his age-35 season. Moore wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was with the Rangers in 2022, but his 2.56 ERA substantiated the strong transition to relief. The Twins bullpen could have five players making the league minimum, so adding the largest contract since Addison Reed could make sense even for a front office that has avoided spending on that group.

There may be a consideration for trading Nick Gordon, as Willi Castro has surpassed him for the main utility role. That said, he’s going to command a little over the league minimum and was very good in the Castro role a year ago when healthy. If he gets to the point of ineffectiveness, there’s no reason he can’t be released at some point during the year. At that time, Austin Martin may be ready for the same type of role.

Along with Polanco, Max Kepler’s name will be heard this offseason, as shedding him would result in a $10 million gain for the books. How the Twins handle the outfield configuration concerning Kepler, Larnach, and Wallner should be very interesting, but it’s Kepler’s 2023 that has me intrigued. He decided to lift the ball over the shift rather than hitting through it, and unlike in 2019, this time, it didn’t have the help of a juiced baseball. Kepler is still a great defender, and keeping him throughout his extension makes sense.

With the dust settling there, the Twins would be on the hook for a $138 million Opening Day payroll. Of course, that will rise throughout the season as incentives are hit, but they could also ship players if things go sideways. Cutting further could be done with a similar talent at a lesser amount than Moore, but a $140 million bill is still nearly a $20 million savings from 2023.

Unfortunately, the franchise isn’t run with a bit more spending correlation to the talent present or expectations in front of them, but this is maybe the best of both worlds. Losing the television contract means those dollars will need to come elsewhere, but even if taken over by a new entity, $30 million in revenues for 2024 would represent almost a halving of what was considered among the worst broadcast deals in the sport previously. No one should be crying poor here, and the Twins still get to field a team capable of making a run for the division and beyond.

What are your thoughts? What would you do differently? Give it a try for real using the Twins Daily Payroll Tool here.

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[tony&rodney]

These are interesting ideas.

Matt Moore and Harrison Bader could be good additions. 

A trade of Kyle Farmer for Dylan Carlson makes some sense for both teams. I don't believe both Carlson and Bader fit on the same team, so i would favor the trade.

Why would Pittsburgh trade any pitching? This is similar to if the Twins decided to trade Joe Ryan for a position player. Of course, anything can happen but any team trading pitching that is really desperate for arms, like Pittsburgh, would be strange. Ideas for trading for pitchers from teams that are totally deficient in pitching has been quite common though so who knows.

Hoskins can hit, that is a given. He burned his glove though. There are a couple of problems bringing him aboard. First, I think Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda can hold this spot in a productive manner. More importantly, I'm taking the Twins at their word that the budget will shrink, which means Hoskins is too rich for their accountants. He would be a sound choice if the budget was closer to the 2023 numbers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I can see these happening, but I agree with the previous commenter; Bader AND Carlson on this team don't make a ton of sense to me.

I do think Keller would be a dream get, and if the Twins were to acquire him, I think it would hurt more in terms of prospects. I'd imagine Pittsburgh would want prospect arms coming back instead of hitters with Wallner. Something like Festa and Raya with Wallner probably gets the conversation started.

[Ted Schwerzler]

12 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Why would Pittsburgh trade any pitching? This is similar to if the Twins decided to trade Joe Ryan for a position player. Of course, anything can happen but any team trading pitching that is really desperate for arms, like Pittsburgh, would be strange. Ideas for trading for pitchers from teams that are totally deficient in pitching has been quite common though so who knows.

Hoskins can hit, that is a given. He burned his glove though. There are a couple of problems bringing him aboard. First, I think Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda can hold this spot in a productive manner. More importantly, I'm taking the Twins at their word that the budget will shrink, which means Hoskins is too rich for their accountants. He would be a sound choice if the budget was closer to the 2023 numbers.

Keller is 27 and a free agent after 2025. Is he really going to be there when they are ready to compete?

I think banking on Kirilloff in any form is about as trustworthy as Buxton at this point. Hoskins is the lone big dollar addition above, and a $138M total bill is still over $20M down from 2023.

[Cris E]

PIT is not trading the only guy on the roster who has thrown 100 innings without getting some pitching back. Send Varland and it might be a discussion.

Oh, and @tony&rodney is right, Bader and Carlson are duplicates. I prefer Carlson, so pool that $7m with the $6m from Moore and go get a decent starter.

[pierre75275]

I don't mind any of them, I would like number 2 a lot better if there was away around trading Wallner or Julien to achieve it

[Brett]

Hoskins would be super fun to watch, but I don’t see tying up half the payroll in 3 guys. Especially when none of them are pitchers.

I like the other changes though. Well thought out.

[1985Fan]

I don’t see Pirates trading their ace. They’ve stated publicly that they’re looking to add arms this offseason. The deal, if they were to trade Keller, would have to include top pitching prospects that are near MLB ready. I doubt that Festa and SWR would be enough to get a deal done and I don’t like the idea of trading Festa. Hope that he’s ready to contribute by mid season. 
 

I do like one of Bader or Carlson to fill Taylor’s role. Who’s Correa’s backup if they trade Farmer? It’s not Polanco. I don’t think Castro or Gordon are MLB level SS. If Correa were to go down, Farmer is the only reasonable SS on the roster. 

[farmerguychris]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I like the Farmer for Carlson trade.  Trade from IF depth for OF needs.  Hoskins and Moore are too expensive given the direction that the FO wants to go and I agree that there is no way the Pirates trade away Keller.

Perfectly said - I fully agree.

[SotaSports in NM]

A contending team shouldn't be content with more than a couple question marks as starters. Kiriloff is unreliable and is an above average platoon guy for maybe 120 at best, anyways. Miranda is a bigger question mark and shouldn't be counted on. Hoskins is indeed a perfect fit, and I'd do my best to clear space to get Pohlad approval. My biggest argument here is our ALCS series vs the Astros (not to mention the remainder of the playoffs, i.e the Texas Rangers). It's another reminder that the true contenders can seriously hurt you with more than half of the lineup. The Twins didn't and don't have that, and Kiriloff or Miranda won't change it.

Keller absolutely could be had via trade because of the financial implications for one of the cheapest teams in the sport. Yea, his extra control will cost a pretty penny, but I Wallner, Festa, Mercedes and Varland/SWR or another 10-20 prospect is absolutely something I would do. Again, look at the true contenders from last year (and pretty much every prior year). They all have a very good 1-2-3 punch in the rotation, if not an elite 1-2 punch. Keller puts us right back in that category.

I'm not going to repeat my agreement about Carlson/Bader.

I like the Moore, but I think this likelihood went out the window when Pagan got 16 mil over 2 years. Moore is going to get a similar deal, I imagine. Not saying I wouldn't do it (though I wouldn't), I'm saying the Pagan deal takes Moore out of our price range.

Having said all this, our contention window isn't closing. So I could absolutely argue against everything I just said lol

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

Hoskins would be super fun to watch, but I don’t see tying up half the payroll in 3 guys. Especially when none of them are pitchers.

I like the other changes though. Well thought out.

I don't think it really matters what positions get paid. The pitching not being one of them is reflective of astute development and trading.

[Doctor Gast]

Free angency isn't the answer especially in our situation. I like trading for Keller, IMO PIT will still be hesitant to trade Keller & will try to extend him, if they do trade Keller they'll want viable SP prospects in return. Which could be hard for us to do.

[2wins87]

I kind of see Bader vs Martin similar to Gallo vs Larnach this year.  Does Bader really have that much more upside or floor to justify spending the money and potentially blocking Martin from getting MLB experience?  I'm not even that high on Martin but he'll almost certainly get on base more than Bader at the very least if given the chance.  Bader's defense would likely be better but his foot speed has clearly started to decline, so I'm not sure the defensive gap would be as big as expected either.

The Twins may not have great options in CF besides a miraculously healthy Buxton, but they do have options with Castro, Gordon, and Martin currently.  I'd be interested in Kiermaier or Taylor at the right price, but below that I'm not sure I'd even call it an upgrade so much as just depth.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, SotaSports said:

So I could absolutely argue against everything I just said lol

This I can agree with.

[Fatbat]

We don’t know everything the FO does but my inclination is that we aren't going outside the org to deal with 1B issues. Its gonna get fixed internally or at least attempted to be fixed. 

Just doing the Farmer for Carlson kills 2 birds with one stone.  

Finding the right deal for pitching is going to be tough. I would imagine it will take some creativity cause it sure seems like a FA pitcher is out of the question.

[by jiminy]

These are all fine proposals but the Twins' biggest need is a playoff-worthy starter to replace Gray. As others have said, the Pirates are not trading their opening day starter for a rookie left fielder. They would need to get at least two high-upside pitching prospects for Keller.

My takeaway from this discussion is that the Twins are going to have a very hard time returning to last year's level of competitiveness after losing Grey, Maeda, and Pagan and cutting payroll by $20 million. The only way to do that would be to forfeit significant minor league talent for low-priced starter with upside, and hope the results are more like Gray and Lopez than Mahle.

[LewFordLives]

I think Keller would be a great get, but a package centered around Wallner is not gonna get it done. Think of what the Twins had to give up for Pablo Lopez. 

I think it's unlikely Keller is even available. There would be riots in Pittsburgh. I could maybe see Keller being shopped at the trade deadline if he can't work out an extension with the Pirates.

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, by jiminy said:

the Twins are going to have a very hard time returning to last year's level of competitiveness after losing Grey, Maeda, and Pagan

How many people ever thought you would see Pagan in this sentence? Emilio sure closed out his time with Minnesota on a positive note, didn't he?

[bigdave]

I love the idea of signing Hopkins. Kiriloff hasn't proven he can stay healthy and Miranda is looking like a flash in the pan who will fade away. Giving up Wallner would be a heavy price, but the Twins desperately need starting pitching.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, by jiminy said:

These are all fine proposals but the Twins' biggest need is a playoff-worthy starter to replace Gray. As others have said, the Pirates are not trading their opening day starter for a rookie left fielder. They would need to get at least two high-upside pitching prospects for Keller.

My takeaway from this discussion is that the Twins are going to have a very hard time returning to last year's level of competitiveness after losing Grey, Maeda, and Pagan and cutting payroll by $20 million. The only way to do that would be to forfeit significant minor league talent for low-priced starter with upside, and hope the results are more like Gray and Lopez than Mahle.

You are correct and for all those reasons ownership should change their budget. 

[darin617]

That Pirates trade is like missing 2 players from MN going along with the 3. No way they give up Keller for that package alone. I actually really like the OF included in the deal. So that trade is way too light on the MN end.

I would rather pay MAT $10M than give Bader $7M.

Matt Moore could be a nice addition to the pen.

Hoskins will most likely be able to land a 3-4 year deal this offseason.

 

[DocBauer]

On the surface, most of these moves make sense. I don't like moving Wallner, especially with Kepler in his probable last season in a Twins uniform, but i could live with it for Keller. But there are a couple of issues:

1] Even IF the Pirates were to move Keller with the idea of not extending him, they'd want at least 1 good arm brought back. That means Varland or Festa minimum. 

2] I don't see room for Carlson AND Bader. Frankly, Bader hasn't hit for a while. Even when he did, he didn't hit much. The defense and speed is nice, but he doesn't fit with Carlson added. And unless someone is on the IL, you have a 14 man roster before Gordon is considered.

I'm OK for 2yrs of Hoskins and figure out the moving parts best you can after the signing.

I'm still thinking Seattle and Miami are probably the best trade options for a SP at this point, not Pittsburgh, but you make a valid arguement. But again, now we're moving an arm, or two, and I don't think we want to do that. So IMO, move #2 doesn't happen. It's going to be someone else.

Farmer for Carlson makes sense. Polanco and Castro...even Lewis...can cover an off day here and there for Correa. But I believe it was Matthew Trueblood who wrote a recent article that the Brewers were interested in Polanco in a possible trade for one of their CF options other than Jackson Chourio. And that might be a better option. But if the Twins were to make a trade with Seattle or Miami, one of Polanco or Julien would probably be included. And we can't afford to move both. So maybe the Farmer for Carlson move makes sense.

Again, I don't see a fit for Bader.

I love the idea of Moore, but I think he costs $7-8M, not $6. But the savings by not signing Bader probably covers that. 

I think you got things about half right. 

Personally, when the smoke clears and the dust settles, I'm still betting on a $140M payroll. That's a $15M cut from opening day, about $19M from reported final numbers, and over $20M when you factor in no 5% raise in payroll based on previous seasons.

IF we accept that Pittsburgh either won't move Keller, OR, the Twins won't move pitching, or enough pitching, to make the deal work, that means, again, Seattle or Miami. In a trade with either, it will be some 2 or 3 for 1 that includes possibilities of Wallner, Kepler, Larnach, Polanco, Julien, Vazquez, and E Rodriguez. At some point in there, ONE of our $10M contracts almost undoubtedly gets moved. That might allow a signing of Taylor or Kiermaier for CF and possibly allow the Twins to keep Farmer. 

Just spitballing, not working all the $ numbers, but I think we'd still come in around $140M or less, even with Hoskins and Moore added. 

[Jim wyllie]

I agree with signing hoskins and acquiring Keller but I would trade larnach and if needs be add Sabato to the deal in place of waller.  Also I would move Polanco and farmer in a package with prospects to Seattle for Logan Gilbert, and make trade with Houston sending a package of Kepler, Vasquez and some prospects for Chas Mccormick 

[Mike Sixel]

Who's your backup SS? Because if it isn't Lee, you better hope CC plays every game. 

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who's your backup SS? Because if it isn't Lee, you better hope CC plays every game. 

There are actually a few options to backup Correa at shortstop. I believe Farmer is solid so I'm not promoting other guys to be put into a regular role. Stuff happens though. Sans Farmer, Willi Castro can play shortstop as a stopgap, which we saw last year. Provided the Twins are able to sign them back, both Anthony Pratto and Michael Helman can hold the position for a bit. Both guys are steady and pretty experienced minor leaguers. Nobody would recommend them for regular duty but they are solid bench players. 

When I watch Lee i see a guy who is really polished who may lack the foot speed needed to play shortstop at the MLB level. I think he would be an extraordinary third baseman though. I'm not sure he would be as good at second base. Lee is still an open book with a high floor. His being a switch hitter is great , yet he has struggled as a right handed batter. The jury is still out on Brooks Lee.

[Twins Takes]

Mitch Keller is exactly the type of pitcher Falvey and Co. would go after. Unfortunately, I think the value you give up to get him and the value he is worth are far apart. Pittsburgh doesn't have any pitching. I think that means you have to give up that much more to get him and I don't see us doing that.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There are actually a few options to backup Correa at shortstop. I believe Farmer is solid so I'm not promoting other guys to be put into a regular role. Stuff happens though. Sans Farmer, Willi Castro can play shortstop as a stopgap, which we saw last year. Provided the Twins are able to sign them back, both Anthony Pratto and Michael Helman can hold the position for a bit. Both guys are steady and pretty experienced minor leaguers. Nobody would recommend them for regular duty but they are solid bench players. 

When I watch Lee i see a guy who is really polished who may lack the foot speed needed to play shortstop at the MLB level. I think he would be an extraordinary third baseman though. I'm not sure he would be as good at second base. Lee is still an open book with a high floor. His being a switch hitter is great , yet he has struggled as a right handed batter. The jury is still out on Brooks Lee.

If any of those guys need to play for a week or more, yikes. Farmer is the last backup I trade. Heck, what are the odds Lewis is healthy?

[stringer bell]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There are actually a few options to backup Correa at shortstop. I believe Farmer is solid so I'm not promoting other guys to be put into a regular role. Stuff happens though. Sans Farmer, Willi Castro can play shortstop as a stopgap, which we saw last year. Provided the Twins are able to sign them back, both Anthony Pratto and Michael Helman can hold the position for a bit. Both guys are steady and pretty experienced minor leaguers. Nobody would recommend them for regular duty but they are solid bench players. 

When I watch Lee i see a guy who is really polished who may lack the foot speed needed to play shortstop at the MLB level. I think he would be an extraordinary third baseman though. I'm not sure he would be as good at second base. Lee is still an open book with a high floor. His being a switch hitter is great , yet he has struggled as a right handed batter. The jury is still out on Brooks Lee.

Lee has played shortstop almost exclusively since signing with the Twins. If Correa suffered a disabling injury, I'm quite confident that Lee would be recalled unless he had showed he was obviously not ready for the majors. As far as a backup for giving Correa a day off (or more), Farmer is fine, but so is Castro. I have speculated that Farmer's role as a backup shortstop has been reduced with Lewis, Castro on the roster and Lee available in St. Paul.

[DocBauer]

35 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Who's your backup SS? Because if it isn't Lee, you better hope CC plays every game. 

I actually like what little I've seen from Castro as a backup SS. And Polanco, while by no means great, can also sub in. And if Rocco likes it better, he could place Lewis at SS and Castro at 3B. 

I really want the Twins to keep Farmer for another season for various reasons and roster flexibility.  But if he's gone, I think SS is covered for a day or two when CC needs a day off. And when Lee is ready, we have another option.

When I look ahead, provided we don't "gut" the INF due to trades, I see Lewis and Lee, Castro, maybe someone like Helman and Prato, all available to cover SS for a day or two. Now, an injury is different. That throws a monkey wrench in to things. But you could still do worse than Lewis or Lee in to SS.

I WANT Farmer to fit in to the roster for another season. And maybe he does. Polanco gets moved to Seattle or Miami, maybe there's room to keep Farmer for 2024. But I don't think we're desperate if he's gone.

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Lee has played shortstop almost exclusively since signing with the Twins. If Correa suffered a disabling injury, I'm quite confident that Lee would be recalled unless he had showed he was obviously not ready for the majors. As far as a backup for giving Correa a day off (or more), Farmer is fine, but so is Castro. I have speculated that Farmer's role as a backup shortstop has been reduced with Lewis, Castro on the roster and Lee available in St. Paul.

Are we talking a disabling injury? That is different than a backup guy who plays 20 games at shortstop. I thought we were looking for short term backups. I like Farmer in his current role.

Like I said, the jury is still out on Lee, which is a pretty neutral comment. Also remember that it is the practice to play a ton of guys at shortstop for quite a stretch. Austin Martin was only moved off of shortstop as the organization wanted to see him in different positions because of his proximity to MLB. It is likely that Martin would have seen time last season with the Twins if he hadn't started the year with a bum arm.