Why Didn’t the Twins Sign Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda?

[Ted Schwerzler]

At this point, the Minnesota Twins have yet to make a significant move this offseason. We have heard plenty about the payroll sliding backward, but does that have anything to do with the front office opting against bringing back Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda?

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Heading into the winter, Derek Falvey’s shopping list was expected to include a right-handed bat, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. That last item on the list could be the most important, after Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the better groups in the game a season ago. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate.

Both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray threw substantial innings for the Twins last season. The latter finished runner-up to Gerrit Cole for the American League Cy Young award. That reflected how good of a season he had and indicated the payday he would command from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same tier of results, he fared well, and deals for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson paved a path for him to benefit financially.

So why didn’t the Twins show a greater desire to retain either of their departing starters? That answer is multi-faceted, but it isn’t exactly complicated. This front office has shied away from paying arms in free agency. That’s a logical stance when you understand that you’re getting someone else’s leftovers. Every free agent is hitting the market because their former employer allowed them to do so, and they are likely doing so at what baseball calls an advanced age.

The Twins, under Falvey, have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda that allowed him to bide his time during rehab from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to change course on that process with Maeda (as he enters his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s paid more based on recent performance) never seemed like a good bet.

Realistically, the Twins didn’t retain the services of either Gray or Maeda because the length of each deal wouldn’t make sense. Maeda finally landed a deal that wasn’t full of incentives, and he’ll make a base salary nearly the same as the eight-year deal he signed when coming over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t need to be prohibitive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to be back at all. Scott Boras was set on finding at least a two-year deal, and with the Tigers having more of a need, they were the team that bit.

Regarding Gray, Minnesota was interested in making a short-term deal. They proved the earnestness of that sentiment by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never accept that one-year pact, so it was a moot point, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for a season or two of his services. The problem is that the market was always going to give Gray a third year, and Minnesota being interested in that seemed like a non-starter. He hasn’t been the most durable arm throughout his career, and it’s unlikely that will change for the better as he ages. St. Louis had to find their ace, and pairing talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt before it got too late was necessary.

Now, the front office is tasked with replacing the innings and starts made by both Maeda and Gray. They went into the offseason assuming that would be the case, and now it has become a reality. That the Twins will stand pat remains highly unlikely, and expecting them to add someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker doesn’t seem realistic, either. They are already exploring the trade market, and it seems most likely that they will make their addition that way. Whom they land remains uncertain, but plenty of fine candidates are out there.

After a successful run in 2023, it may have been fun to run it back. A similar outcome with everyone repeating success or performing at a higher level wouldn't have been probable, though, and Minnesota must carve a new path toward more optimal results. Maeda was a fun way to get involved in the Mookie Betts excitement with the Dodgers, and acquiring Gray was a well-executed move that has come full circle. 

It’s okay to be sad that both are gone, while understanding that the right decision was made.

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[CRF]

I really don't think Gray was going to sign another contract here, even if the Twins would've out bid any other team for him. He wanted to be gone no matter what the years/money were. Especially with the comment he made about wanting to be with the Cards over a year ago. 

[TopGunn#22]

Gray will regress.  We got 2 solid years out of him but now we don't have to pay him $25 million for 3 years he won't come close to his Cy Young runner up.  

Maeda at $24 million for two years of his 37 and 38 year old seasons...no thanks.  I'll sign Giolito or Severino to $14 million dollar contracts and have better upside.  

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Gray will regress.  We got 2 solid years out of him but now we don't have to pay him $25 million for 3 years he won't come close to his Cy Young runner up.  

Probably not, but a CYA runner-up season is worth around $45M so he can regress a LOT and still provide $25M worth of value to the Cardinals.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, CRF said:

I really don't think Gray was going to sign another contract here, even if the Twins would've out bid any other team for him. He wanted to be gone no matter what the years/money were. Especially with the comment he made about wanting to be with the Cards over a year ago. 

Not to cast aspersions on Sonny Gray, but if the Twins had been the highest bidder, I suspect Sonny might have had a lovely sounding quote about the Twins all ready to go. "We started talking about an extension during the season, and I really felt like we had something special going here..."

StL made sense for him; the only other baseball town closer to his hometown was Atlanta, and I'm sure that mattered somewhat. not as much as $75M over 3, but...

I think Paddack will be able to replace Maeda's innings, possibly with more upside. Maeda's fastball is starting to get awfully hittable, and while he doesn't rely on it too heavily, at a certain point the slider and split struggle without something to play off of...and sometimes you need to put a pitch in the strike zone.

Losing Gray is a loss, especially since he pitched very well for us this year. but there's decent odds he won't get through this contract without an injury and at $25M per, that could get rough. but the draft pick compensation is good and moreover, we're not in the same position we were when we dealt for Gray in the first place: desperate for starting pitching with few reliable options in place.

I certainly hope we do better than signing a scrap-heap retread like Archer or Bundy this time, but at least they would be fighting for the 5th spot and wouldn't be the 2nd or 3rd man in the rotation from the jump...

[Brandon]

I think the big reason the Twins didn’t want to go 2 years with Maeda was the commitments we already have for 2025 season.  Maeda on a 2 year deal is fine.  We just didn’t have the money in the budget for either as Gray signed a reasonable contract as well.  I think the Twins would be a place for Gray as Minnesota did check off a lot of boxes for him and isn’t too far from home.  Probably 2-4 on his list.  But that darn budget.

[Fatbat]

Not Signing Maeda for 2 yr 26M was just dumb. He has a shiny new arm and he knows how to pitch. We could have gotten 200+ innings in ‘24/25 out of him. 
Congrats to Gray on his overpay day. Thanks for the draft pick. 

[mnfireman]

14 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Not Signing Maeda for 2 yr 26M was just dumb. He has a shiny new arm and he knows how to pitch. We could have gotten 200+ innings in ‘24/25 out of him. 
Congrats to Gray on his overpay day. Thanks for the draft pick. 

Awful lot of money per year for 100 innings, Paddack should be able to replace those anyway for roughly $10 MM over the same period.

If you think he would give this team 200 innings per year, he never has. Only twice has he thrown more than 150. 

[Nine of twelve]

The following numbers are the reasons it makes sense not to have signed them: 11/7/1989 and 4/11/1988.

[Fatbat]

20 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Awful lot of money per year for 100 innings, Paddack should be able to replace those anyway for roughly $10 MM over the same period.

If you think he would give this team 200 innings per year, he never has. Only twice has he thrown more than 150. 

Just 100+ per year for $13M .  Its not overly expensive if he has 2 Good years. He is also the kind if guy that can pitch 5 innings in a playoff game and keep the score low.  Thats hard to find.  I expect Paddack to also pitch 100+ innings in ‘24.  That would have only required us to find a viable option for another 100 innings which I would hope could be covered by Varland/Headrick. 

[Rosterman]

Paddack should replace Madea.

Age and durability for both was questionable, especially with any longterm contracts. Good deals for both, they signed early (a Twins tactic in the past).

Here's hoping the Twins can make a trade. And Glasnow is always out there as a one-season high-priced rental, if the Twins can move the right prospects (from their depth). But do they really want that contract, although he is a lefty!

[Aerodeliria]

All of this wishful thinking....

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

He has a shiny new arm

Not quite how these surgeries work. I think you're thinking of Iron Man movies. 😀

[snellman]

I would have liked to see Gray stick around because he was a fun pitcher to watch. He was like a bulldog on the mound, never giving up.  That said, the Twins couldn't have played it any better.  You gave up a late first round pick for him, got 2 good years out of him with one being really good and you get a late first round pick back for losing him. Granted, we won't know the true outcome for years because of the youth of the player they traded and whoever they draft, but it worked out ok and I am fine with them not signing him for that kind of money at his age.

[Fatbat]

9 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Not quite how these surgeries work. I think you're thinking of Iron Man movies. 😀

He just proved in ‘23 that he can still pitch to his career averages.  Paying him $13M/yr is about half as we would pay a #1 SP.  I fail to see the risk because 2 years removed from TJ, he will probably improve his stats and durability. 

[tony&rodney]

The loss of media money may have played a small role in deciding not to pursue Maeda aggressively. If the roster budget was going to be around $160 million as many people thought it would be in September/October, then things change. Maeda did a fine job for the Twins. He won't be so easily replaced. Paddack will not go much beyond 100 innings if that. Varland is an unknown, but I'm high on his ability to pitch more than 160 innings if he can be effective.

Sonny Gray was always going to be a free agent and would sign with a team of his choosing, all things being equal. Neither Atlanta not Minnesota plays in the deep end for pitching, so it came down to CIN or STL. He made the easy decision. Gray would have resigned with the Twins in a heartbeat for 3/$75 million. We wish him well and now the Twins will need to cover his innings.

[mnfireman]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Just 100+ per year for $13M .  Its not overly expensive if he has 2 Good years. He is also the kind if guy that can pitch 5 innings in a playoff game and keep the score low.  Thats hard to find.  I expect Paddack to also pitch 100+ innings in ‘24.  That would have only required us to find a viable option for another 100 innings which I would hope could be covered by Varland/Headrick. 

How low have our standards fallen that we are now content to expect 100 innings out of a starter and that $13 MM is a reasonable amount for that production?

[Fatbat]

19 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

How low have our standards fallen that we are now content to expect 100 innings out of a starter and that $13 MM is a reasonable amount for that production?

Its 2 guys coming back from TJ. maeda pitched 104 this year and had some early issues that he got reset. Its possible both him and Paddack each get to 150 but I expect 100+…. It’s a reasonable expectation. 150+ is a stretch but it’s possible.  If Maeda has a 3.9 era 1.13 whip and throws 147 innings for Detroit, is he worth $12M in ‘24? 
Edit…. In addition, Jordan Montgomery pitched 188.2 innings in ‘23. The most of his career. Had a 3.20 era and 1.19 whip. 10wins/11 losses. He is 30 and he is looking at $25M/yr or more on a 4-6 year deal. He isn’t known as an Iron man but he is gonna get his payday. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

The following numbers are the reasons it makes sense not to have signed them: 11/7/1989 and 4/11/1988.

I see what you did there.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

I really don't think Gray was going to sign another contract here, even if the Twins would've out bid any other team for him. He wanted to be gone no matter what the years/money were. Especially with the comment he made about wanting to be with the Cards over a year ago. 

Players talk all the time, and they certainly have the right to change their minds, That said, I wouldn't put much stock in the comment you refer to - unless you believe he was flat out 'untruth-telling' here (Sports Illustrated):

“I do truly believe there is something special going on in this clubhouse," Gray said. "It’s definitely going in the right direction. But at the same time, it’s something we’re going to have to take a look at as a family and see what is the next step for us, not only as a baseball player, but where are the next three to four years of our lives going and what direction is that going to go in. I do know it’s going to be playing baseball, I just don’t know exactly where. But we’ve enjoyed every single moment that we’ve had since we got traded over here, not only the people in the clubhouse, the fans, the city, the organization — everyone has been as much as you can ask. It’s been an incredible experience.”

[Linus]

I think we should give a hat tip to the FO for the whole Gray trade. They flipped a 26 th draft pick to get two years of Sonny at way below market salaries and will now get a 33rd ish pick. I’m glad they let him walk. They played this perfectly. 
 

im torn on Maeda. He got a reasonable contract and the depth would have been great but between health and age there is some decent downside risk. 
 

I hope the Twins go big and get a young starter with upside. Not interested in using valuable trade assets for innings eaters. 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

I see what you did there.

No spoilers, now.  Give everybody time to guess.

[jkcarew]

I don’t think it’s complicated, or surprising.

With Gray…you’re not going to lock into yet another (Buxton, Correa) $25M+ salary on a $100M-and-change payroll.

And with Maeda, at this stage of his career, FO doesn’t see enough delta between him and the cheaper (and younger) guys they already have.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

I think we should give a hat tip to the FO for the whole Gray trade. They flipped a 26 th draft pick to get two years of Sonny at way below market salaries and will now get a 33rd ish pick. I’m glad they let him walk. They played this perfectly. 
 

im torn on Maeda. He got a reasonable contract and the depth would have been great but between health and age there is some decent downside risk. 
 

I hope the Twins go big and get a young starter with upside. Not interested in using valuable trade assets for innings eaters. 

If the 26th pick keeps the trajectory  he may well be a valuable pitcher. When the 36th pick busts because they picked another college batter the howls will be loud

[TwinsFan98]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

No spoilers, now.  Give everybody time to guess.

I wasn't around at that time, so I'm confused 

[Fatbat]

8 hours ago, old nurse said:

If the 26th pick keeps the trajectory  he may well be a valuable pitcher. When the 36th pick busts because they picked another college batter the howls will be loud

Or the pick could be HOF. Either way, we will be talking about it for years. 

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Or the pick could be HOF. Either way, we will be talking about it for years. 

This front office’s late first round picks thus far have not produced that kind of player 

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Not quite how these surgeries work. I think you're thinking of Iron Man movies. 😀

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Sonny Gray was always going to be a free agent and would sign with a team of his choosing, all things being equal. Neither Atlanta not Minnesota plays in the deep end for pitching, so it came down to CIN or STL.

Yes, it's too bad that the Twins can't compete for free agents with large market behemoths like Cincinnati.

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Yes, it's too bad that the Twins can't compete for free agents with large market behemoths like Cincinnati.

The Twins do not chase after high priced free agent pitchers. It is both the money and years required. Atlanta also follows this path. It is what it is.