Free Agent Fails? Grading the Twins' Recent History in Free Agency

[Cody Christie]

Teams must hit on their free agent signings to succeed, especially when their payroll ranks in the middle of the league. How have the Twins done in recent years regarding signing free agent talent?

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Baseball’s most successful organizations create rosters through player development, trades, and free agent signings. Historically, the Twins have attempted to build their core around young, homegrown talent while supplementing the roster in other ways. The current front office has tried to be more aggressive on the free agent market, but how have those results played out over the last handful of seasons?

2023 Offseason

FA Signings: Carlos Correa (six-years, $200 million), Christian Vázquez (three-years, $30 million), Joey Gallo (one-year, $11 million), Donovan Solano (one-year, $2 million)
2023 spent: $56.3 million
Total spent: $243 million

Last winter, the Twins had Correa’s pending free agency looming over many of the team’s offseason decisions. His deals with the Mets and Giants didn’t work out due to concerns over an ankle injury from early in his professional career, and he ended up signing back with the Twins. Plantar fasciitis impacted his performance throughout the 2023 season, but he made multiple important plays on both sides of the ball during the playoffs. His contract will be looked at through a different lens because of the length and value. Hopefully, an offseason of rest and recovery will solve his injury issues from this season. 

Vázquez was a clear target for the Twins last winter, with Ryan Jeffers coming off a rough 2022 season. Minnesota likes to have a two-catcher rotation to keep both players fresh behind the plate. Overall, Vazquez posted a 65 OPS+ but remained a strong defender. Gallo posted a 1.063 OPS in the season’s first month before his performance dropped off significantly. Injuries elsewhere were likely the only reason he stayed on the roster for the entire season. Solano signed late in the offseason and provided a valuable veteran bat (110 OPS+, 1.8 rWAR). He is the most significant positive out of this free agent class.

2023 Grade: C-, the Twins don’t sign players like Correa, so it was nice to see the club make an aggressive move. However, most players didn’t live up to expectations. 

2022 Offseason

FA Signings: Carlos Correa (three-years, $105.3 million), Dylan Bundy (one-year, $5 million), Chris Archer (one-year, $3.5 million), Joe Smith (one-year, $2.5 million)
2022 spent: $46.1 million
Total spent: $116.3 million

Correa’s signing was unexpected, and the lockout changed the trajectory of the entire offseason. The Twins knew that Correa’s deal was likely for one season, and then he would likely opt out of the contract. Minnesota fell out of contention in the season’s final weeks, but that’s when Correa played at his best. He ended the season with a 138 OPS+, the second-highest total of his career. 

Minnesota’s other free agent signings couldn’t have gone much worse. Bundy and Archer started 54 games while each posting an ERA+ of 86 or lower. Injuries significantly impacted the team’s roster, and the Twins had to continue to trot out their veteran pitchers even though they were pitching below replacement level. Smith was limited to 34 appearances with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. None of these three pitchers made a big-league appearance during the 2023 season, which speaks to how bad they were in 2022.  

2022 Grade: D, there were other options the Twins could have targeted for the rotation. Correa is the lone factor that saves this grade from being an F. 

2021 Offseason

FA Signings: Nelson Cruz (one-year, $13 million), Andrelton Simmons (one-year, $10.5 million), J.A. Happ (one-year, $8 million), Alex Colome (one-year, $6.25 million), Matt Shoemaker (one-year, $2 million), Hansel Robles (one-year, $2 million)
2021 spent: $41.5 million
Total spent: $41.5 million

Minnesota avoided signing any long-term deals leading into the 2021 season, which kept money off the books for future years. Cruz had been the heart and soul of the Twins roster in 2019 and 2020 while the team won back-to-back division titles. However, things didn’t work out for the club after a slow start to the season. At the trade deadline, the Twins traded Cruz’s expiring contract to the Rays in a deal that included Joe Ryan. Cruz posted a 148 OPS+ before the trade and a 101 OPS+ with Tampa. 

Colome gets a lot of the blame for the Twins' poor start to the season because he posted an 8.31 ERA and blew multiple saves in April. Happ and Shoemaker both had ERA+ totals of 63 or lower, and neither finished the season on the team’s roster. Simmons played 131 games at shortstop while hitting .223/.283/.274 (.558). He played 34 games for the Cubs in 2022 and didn’t appear in a big-league game during the 2023 campaign. Robles posted an ERA of around 5.00 and was sent to Boston at the trade deadline. 

2021 Grade: F, the only positive was being able to snag Ryan from the Rays in the Cruz trade. 

Do you agree with these grades? Is there anything the Twins front office can learn from previous offseasons? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussions. 

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[nicksaviking]

Yeah, pretty easy lesson to read here. If you pay for bottom tier pitching, you'll more often than not get what you deserve.

Also, I count six free agent hitters in that list. Two were signed pretty exclusively for their bats, Cruz and Solano. Vazquez, Gallo and Simmons were brought over pretty exclusively for their gloves. And Correa was probably healthy doses of both.

The guys you only sign for their glove are bound to only frustrate everyone too.

[LewFordLives]

More often than not, the reason someone hits free agency is because their previous team, for whatever reason, wouldn't go the Xtra mile to resign them. Therefore, on average, free agent signings will result in overpays. That's just the nature of the beast. But yeah, even if you reduce expectations, the Twins' recent track record is poor.

[Blyleven2011]

Pitching wins games , we have the pitching with just alittle tweaking , now we need a more balanced lineup ...

The hitters are capable of hitting but they have no consistency to bunch hits together  ...

Cruz had 2 1/2 years of good baseball on a twins uniform  ...

Correa  , finished his first year on a high note and opted out for free agency  only to be re-signed  for 6 years , jury out on that contract  as of now  ... 

Solano  gave thexl twins value ...

Vazquez gave us defensive value , will he work on being a better hitter in 2024 if he isn't traded ...

Most of the other free agents were signed on hope that we could find some value  , Bundy was a workhorse  but the others  were laughable  ...

Boy did I laugh in 2021 and 2022 with what we had for pitching  , when certain relievers came in or extra innings occurred  , we knew what the outcome would be ...

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

BTV only has seven free-agent acquisitions with a surplus value of over $20M: Gausman, Freeman, Senga, Wheeler, Harper, Seager, and Eflin.

Most of the big-time contracts that are over water are given to players in their first few years (Rodriguez, Carroll, Tatis, Acuna, etc) or, sometimes, to players who have been traded in their arbitration year (Olson, Betts, Lopez, etc). Instead of ponying up a bunch of cash for a player who will most likely not create surplus value for the Twins, let's extend Royce, trade for another starter, and give him a below-market contract (like what we did with Pablo Lopez).

The only way to compete with teams paying the luxury tax is to create lots of surplus value- this is the best way to do that with large contracts.

[rv78]

Outside of the Solano signing for 2023 I'd give all 3 seasons an "F". His offense won a lot of games for the Twins in 2023. On the flip side, Correa hasn't done anything to prove his monster contract is/was worthy. Opting out in 2022 proved he could care less for the Twins organization and he's only interested in himself. Now saddled with his burdensome contract the FO will need to tread water trying to bring in other players plus keep their upcoming young studs from leaving. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

2022 Grade: D, there were other options the Twins could have targeted for the rotation. Correa is the lone factor that saves this grade from being an F. 

 

 

There is plenty of time for the Correa signing to produce.  However, at this point IDK that Correa saves anything.   33M for 1.1 WAR is an F.

[Aerodeliria]

Correa wins games in the playoffs and uses his defensive skills when it matters the most...that's all I really care about. 

I knew why we got Simmons. I never complained about him, but others were a big let down. (I didn't think Vasquez was anything spectacular behind the plate, so IMHO, he was a complete bust.) Cruz was a great sign. I thought the change of scenery made Gallo worth the risk--I was completely wrong. Bottom-feeding for pitchers from the scrap heap simply doesn't work.

[DocBauer]

So yeah, if we only look at the last 3 years, not very good. I would have liked to look further back for a longer, and I think, more accurate picture.

I think the grade for 2023 is too low though. Having Correa back was huge, IMO, from defense, to leadership, to a change in perception of the organization as a whole. Solano was a tremendous value, despite a somewhat limited OPS. He was streaky at times, but generally sound and had some big moments. And I still like Vazquez, despite the unexpectedly poor offense. His game calling and defense were still intact, and that's the most important part of why he was brought in. So I'm a solid B for 2023 and a rebound from Vazquez probably raises the grade going forward.

I have faith in a big 2024 season from Correa as long as the plantar issue is resolved over the winter.

 

[mikelink45]

Fascinating.  It really comes down to the young players moving the needle - it is a good lesson to learn.  

[gil4]

 

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

The guys you only sign for their glove are bound to only frustrate everyone too.

Taylor was brought in for his glove and worked out OK.  

[Fatbat]

They need to hire a FA expert to help them stay away from the garbage they bring in. 

[Brandon]

That was some lazy writing.  Bundy was exactly what he was brought in to be.  A .500 pitcher.  Led staff in starts.  Pitched 150 innings of close to league average era for 5 million.  He was a floor pitcher.  I know everyone is upset they didn’t shoot for better talent since so many pitchers were available that offseason.  

I would give the 2022 offseason a B+.  Getting Correa made all the difference in moral and shifted the mindset from rebuilding to winning.  
 

while it wasn’t ideal that Archer tired and was no longer the starting pitcher we needed.  It was an even bigger crime to not put him in the pen as a multi inning reliever too.  And while Joe Smith was a sunk cost at 2.5 million.  He did have a good start to the season being unscored on in first 12 appearances before cratering.  

In 2021 You can say that Cruz was an elite hitter for us again the provided long term value by being traded for Joe Ryan.  Also the pitchers JA Happ and Schoenaker were terrible.  Atleast Happ got us one of the 2 players traded for Taylor our CF last season.  Colome….. 2021 grade D-.

2023 analysis isn’t too bad.  I would say if Gallo signed for 2 million and Solano 11 million would you look at both signings positively?  Correa signing signified we were ready to win. Hence some of the moves / trades that followed showed this.  Vazquez was signed for defense and be near league average bat.  His defense was good but his bat cratered.  All in all a B.

[Doctor Wu]

9 hours ago, Brandon said:

Happ and Schoenaker were terrible.

Yeah, those two were pretty bad. Compared to them, I think Bundy and Archer were pretty good, or at least they put in their innings and weren't shelled too often. Not great, but not awful. They did what was expected. But we all hope the Twins can do MUCH better. Hopefully, trading for the likes of Lopez and Gray have shown us a better path to winning. 

[Johnny Ringo]

In 2023, that group (Correa, Vasquez, Gallo and Solano) collectively had a WAR (within a rounding error) of 2. They spent $56 million on them. So by modern baseball pay scales, the FO burned about $40 million or 26% of their payroll. That gets you an F most places. Very few businesses can withstand (outside of the government) over a quarter of their salary spend contributing nothing.  

I am not a fire Falvey guy though. On the other side of the scale, the trades for Lopez, Gray and Ryan were simply brilliant. He has a lot of ownership in the ascendancy of the fabulous rookie class (Lewis, Julien) too.   

Free agency spending is a lot like hot sauce. It is a nice touch. But if you live on it, you are likely to experience severe indigestion.

   

[Doctor Gast]

'23 is spot on. It'd be a good year if they hadn't signed Gallo (F~) it made no sense to spend that much money on a gamble on a player that IMO was slim where there was a great glut.&  that took time away from our prospects 

'19 was an A, with the signing of Cruz, Schoop, Cron & Perez.

'20 was terrible when Donaldson didn't work out.

'21 was an F from the start except the resigning of Cruz.

'22 IMO was a B. I don't blame the signing of Bundy, Archer & Smith, I blame how they were managed & the negative hype that they got. That they didn't deserve which wrecked their careers.

[Trov]

It is easy to point out the players we signed that did not work well, but without showing who we passed on that maybe could have been had it is hard to say we failed.  I mean because you signed bad players does not mean there was better options there. 

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Yeah, those two were pretty bad. Compared to them, I think Bundy and Archer were pretty good, or at least they put in their innings and weren't shelled too often. Not great, but not awful. They did what was expected. But we all hope the Twins can do MUCH better. Hopefully, trading for the likes of Lopez and Gray have shown us a better path to winning. 

These are never good signings though unless there's absolutely nobody in AAA who can help. We see it just about every time, whether it's the Happ/Schomacher class or the Bundy/Archer class, the the Ryan/Ober/Varland/Smeltzer/Winder options end up being just as effective if not more so than the vets.

Unless there is zero depth, spend the money elsewhere. The best case scenario with these guys is them just being empty filler with no production and zero upside. Worst case scenario is repeatedly flushing wins down the drain until the sunk cost revelation sinks in, which usually takes way too long.

[Jeff K]

15 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Correa wins games in the playoffs and uses his defensive skills when it matters the most...that's all I really care about. 

I knew why we got Simmons. I never complained about him, but others were a big let down. (I didn't think Vasquez was anything spectacular behind the plate, so IMHO, he was a complete bust.) Cruz was a great sign. I thought the change of scenery made Gallo worth the risk--I was completely wrong. Bottom-feeding for pitchers from the scrap heap simply doesn't work.

I think the Cruz resigning was outstanding as we picked up Ryan through trade.  That by itself ought to raise the one grade.

 

[KirbyDome89]

21 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Vazquez, Gallo and Simmons were brought over pretty exclusively for their gloves.

Was he? I thought the rationale was he'd bounce back with the bat, i.e. a HR obsessed FO thought they found a reclamation project capable of mashing nothing but HRs. You can squint and understand that gamble. $11M for a glove first corner OF'er? Yikes.  

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, Johnny Ringo said:

In 2023, that group (Correa, Vasquez, Gallo and Solano) collectively had a WAR (within a rounding error) of 2. They spent $56 million on them. So by modern baseball pay scales, the FO burned about $40 million or 26% of their payroll. That gets you an F most places. Very few businesses can withstand (outside of the government) over a quarter of their salary spend contributing nothing.  

I am not a fire Falvey guy though. On the other side of the scale, the trades for Lopez, Gray and Ryan were simply brilliant. He has a lot of ownership in the ascendancy of the fabulous rookie class (Lewis, Julien) too.   

Free agency spending is a lot like hot sauce. It is a nice touch. But if you live on it, you are likely to experience severe indigestion.

   

1 WAR is worth 10 million so if the 4 players you mentioned were worth an average of 1.5 WAR we broke even.  At 8 WAR we got some excess value.  How is this an F?

[jdgoin]

On 11/7/2023 at 4:36 PM, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, pretty easy lesson to read here. If you pay for bottom tier pitching, you'll more often than not get what you deserve.

Also, I count six free agent hitters in that list. Two were signed pretty exclusively for their bats, Cruz and Solano. Vazquez, Gallo and Simmons were brought over pretty exclusively for their gloves. And Correa was probably healthy doses of both.

The guys you only sign for their glove are bound to only frustrate everyone too.

I was never a big fan of extending or giving multi-year deals to players whose value was mostly driven by their defense. We did it in Arizona with Nick Ahmed during his arb years and it was a disaster. They need to at least be able to handle the bat enough to produce close to league average offense.

[jdgoin]

29 minutes ago, Brandon said:

1 WAR is worth 10 million so if the 4 players you mentioned were worth an average of 1.5 WAR we broke even.  At 8 WAR we got some excess value.  How is this an F?

Using $/WAR to gauge FA value can be misleading. WAR can be accumulated in a lot of ways. If you take two players who produced 2 WAR, one was mostly offensive, the other was mostly defensive/baserunning, I am not looking at giving those guys a similar deal. One player profiles as an everyday regular, the other as some time of UT/extra guy.

[Johnny Ringo]

36 minutes ago, Brandon said:

1 WAR is worth 10 million so if the 4 players you mentioned were worth an average of 1.5 WAR we broke even.  At 8 WAR we got some excess value.  How is this an F?

They had a collective WAR of 2. Two times $8 million is $16 million. They spent $56 million. $56 minus $16=$40 million lost.  

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, Johnny Ringo said:

They had a collective WAR of 2. Two times $8 million is $16 million. They spent $56 million. $56 minus $16=$40 million lost.  

Solano was 1.7 WAR https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solando01.shtml

Correa  was 1.4 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml

Gallo was .5 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gallojo01.shtml

Vasquez was -.3 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml 

total 3.3 WAR. So you’re half right.  Yes there is less than break even WAR.  But way more than 2.  Still not an F.  Maybe a D if you go by WAR alone.  But the Correa signing means a lot more than his WAR.  And I think Vázquez intangibles did too.  Solano was an A+ signing.  I give the 2023 FA signing season a B

[UK Twin]

This just shows how valuable the trade market is for a club the size of the Twins. It took multiple freak events for Correa to first sign in the first place and then sign long term with the Twins. The Twins generally can't get good value in the FA market. TBF this FO have tried to compete above their level. They were in for Wheeler, got Correa in the end. Although what happened with Correa is an excellent example of why the FA market is not where the Twins should be looking, apart from to add depth. Giants and Mets blew us out of the water with their offers. 

But the trade market is a different matter. Lopez, Gray and Ryan all acquired via trade. I think if Lopez was on the FA market this winter he would be looking at a $180-200 million contract over 8+ years. Every contender with holes in their rotation would want him. Way out of the Twins range. I know it cost us Arraez, but I maintain the Twins won that trade - we extended Lopez and he added the sweeper to his locker. Falvey identified the Marlins as a good trade partner for the Twins and struck gold. That's what needs to happen again this offseason. 

[nicksaviking]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:24 PM, gil4 said:

 

Taylor was brought in for his glove and worked out OK.  

He struck out 33.5% of his at bats and had a .278 on base percentage. By just about any measure, he was just as bad as Joey Gallo offensively.

[jkcarew]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He struck out 33.5% of his at bats and had a .278 on base percentage. By just about any measure, he was just as bad as Joey Gallo offensively.

True. But he was still significantly less awful offensively than expected..primarily due to the surprisingly decent SLG.

[jkcarew]

On 11/7/2023 at 5:21 PM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

BTV only has seven free-agent acquisitions with a surplus value of over $20M: Gausman, Freeman, Senga, Wheeler, Harper, Seager, and Eflin.

Most of the big-time contracts that are over water are given to players in their first few years (Rodriguez, Carroll, Tatis, Acuna, etc) or, sometimes, to players who have been traded in their arbitration year (Olson, Betts, Lopez, etc). Instead of ponying up a bunch of cash for a player who will most likely not create surplus value for the Twins, let's extend Royce, trade for another starter, and give him a below-market contract (like what we did with Pablo Lopez).

The only way to compete with teams paying the luxury tax is to create lots of surplus value- this is the best way to do that with large contracts.

Good post.

Also…you need to change your handle 😀