Biggest Question for Twins this Offseason

[Trov]

Many will say who do we sign, any trades, who will replace player 'x'.  However, the biggest question for the Twins will be who will be broadcasting their TV games, and how much money will they get from them.  At this point the Twins have no deal in place.  With all the issues with Bally, and not even knowing if they will be a broadcasting network next season there is a lot of questions.  Reports are Twins were paid about $54 million this last season.  Bally could barely do that.  Will the team find a broadcast network that can pay near that?  Will MLB take over the broadcast rights and if so how much will Twins get?  Can Twins go to an all digital solo broadcast, and how much will it cost fans and how much will team make?  

The reason this question is so huge is when the teams budgets for the year, they count on that TV money.  Losing out on $54 million is not a small thing.  The payroll for Twins this year when all said and done was around 156 mil.  Next year they have 92 on the books already, if they pick up the options of Kepler and Polanco.  Arb salaries are being estimated around 19 mil, depending on who is retained.  That bring projected, without trades or other FA signings, like Sonny Gray coming back, around $110.  Even if we assume the team was at break even, if you cut $54 mil out of the budget they are operating at a loss by about 10 mil.  If they were making some profit, then they may be at break even with current roster, again no new FA or trades, and we keep Kepler and Polo.

Depending on how long this question goes on it will have to affect how the team makes decisions.  I do not want to get into how the team could lose money because the owners are rich, they are a business and no business should expect to operate at a loss because they owner can afford it.  Also, there is a lot more expenses than just player payroll.  At this point, there does not appear to be a clear path as to who, or how games will be broadcasted next year.  I assume the very local broadcast networks cannot swing $54 million for a season, so it will have to a cable network, to get the money from the cable providers for having the channel.  But that is what led to Bally issues this year, was they wanted more from cable and satellite providers to carry Bally, to cover the fact they were losing money on their broadcasting deals.  So even if a network steps up, how much can they offer?  

There was going to be a natural reduction in payroll this year, due to the younger guys stepping up to take over for vets anyways.  But, Kepler played well enough his option would normally be picked up, but saving 10 million when he really has had 1.5 good seasons in his career, and rest just average to slightly below average at plate.  He has always been good on defense, but he is getting older too.  They may look to pick up the option in hope of trade, but he will not fetch much.  Polanco already was on the fence to have his option picked up.  He is still a decent player, but his injuries are mounting, and we have others that can take his place.  If Lewis and Julien are healthy all year, Polanco should be on bench, assuming Julien is not DH.  Even so, Lee should be making a debut, and Martin is there too. 

Really, until the team knows how much money, if any, comes in for broadcasting, it is hard to project a team budget.  This is the biggest question for the team going into offseason. 

[Linus]

I e been thinking about this as well. It seems that the Twins do operate fairly closely to a revenue ratio which might mean big changes. Who knows maybe they will count on a revenue boost from this playoff run. However it could be a much bigger factor than we think in the Polanco and Kepler decisions. 

[tony&rodney]

The media money is huge for some teams and any cut in revenue for the Twins will have a ripple effect. I'm thinking a player payroll around $135 million is a fair guess for 2024. The crunch in payroll will come in a few years if the media money is a problem.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

if you cut $54 mil out of the budget they are operating at a loss by about 10 mil. 

Half the $54M was shared with the league. If they lose all of it (and they won't) they're only really out $27M.

[JD-TWINS]

TV deal could strangle the team’s ability to get to next level. Gotta assume the club’s play is worth some TV revenue from some local source - worst case 60% of Bally’s number?? That’s $32M. Reasonable assumption?

Am assuming the attendance got to 2 million plus a few after 4 playoff games……what’s that revenue worth? Gotta be millions in advertising $ attached to Twins - not sure how that flows to the club?

I’m in Cincinnati and don’t know average Twins ticket cost - little feel at all. Is $40 plus as an average too high? That would mean they got to $85-90M for the year.

Gotta be some radio revenue for 162 games per year………..$ number?

Concessions & Merch?? $25M additional revenue……..maybe $15M net to Twins.

Anybody have better, more refined & view of finances?

Without considering revenue - knowing Club spent $153M on players roughly in ‘23………I was hopeful Twins would be willing to spend $150M going forward - maybe a stretch?

[Trov]

58 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Half the $54M was shared with the league. If they lose all of it (and they won't) they're only really out $27M.

I read that sharing is only like 34%.  I get the point, that it will not be a full $54 off the top, but even $27, or $20 is still not a drop in the bucket. The point still stands that this will affect their budget going forward if it is not figured out sooner than later. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Half the $54M was shared with the league. If they lose all of it (and they won't) they're only really out $27M.

And could also receive revenue sharing again depending on where that video broadcasting contract comes in, so the worst case shrinks from there.

still, a $10M haircut would hurt a lot.

what we don’t really know is, who are the competitors to buy the contract. It’s wide open including MLB and Pohlad companies, as well as other RSNs, streaming platforms, and maybe local TV.

It might be a revenue increase, because the legacy contract had some legacy ownership stake in FSN.

make no mistake, projected revenue will have a direct impact on spend next year and going to the ALDS with projectable upside to continue post seasons in the future absolutely helps that revenue upside too.

[Riverbrian]

“That’s a reality of our offseason. It’s not just for us. It’s for other clubs, too. That’s a piece of information we’re going to have to navigate. It’s a factor that there’s lack of clarity on TV revenue. That’s a fact, that’s no secret to anybody. That plays a role (with payroll), just like all of our revenue sources play a role to some degree.”

– Derek Falvey

When Falvey says this sort of thing. I believe him. 

I'm not worried about it. There is plenty of talent coming back. Ohtani isn't coming. 

[rv78]

The FO has to seriously look at the production they are getting from their veteran hitters. Or I should say "lack of production". Gallo and his $11M is gone. If not, the FO needs their heads examined and their behinds booted to the door. Let's all hope they learned their lesson signing a hitter that can't hit. Kepler is due a $10M option. I say save the money and give the job to any of the following, Castro, Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon. There's a savings of $20+M and you have 6 guys to pick from that will provide just as much run production or more for very little money. Let Polanco walk as well. His option is $10,5M and a combination, or one of Julien, Lewis, Lee can handle 2B. Unfortunately the Twins are tied to Buxton $15.1M and Correa $33.3M. Both mistakes by the FO as both are over-paid for what they provide offensively. Maybe they can be talked into waiving their no trade clauses but I doubt any other team would want them at the cost they are tied to. Sonny Gray got $12.7M so there's a chunk that is going away as well. The rest of the Twins roster is made up of relatively cheap players not named Pablo Lopez. Yes, some are due raises and they should also start to look at extending some of them with reasonable contracts as well. Jeffers for example. It's time to turn the page and start to lean on the youngsters. They're the main reason why the Twins made the playoffs in the first place.

[lecroy24fan]

I fully expect Scripps Sports to end up with the Twins TV deal. They've been aggressive in doing so in other markets, with Phoenix being the big one. They have a local affiliate, owning ION (Channel 41 for rabbit ears) so no need for cable/satellite. at that point.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

15 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Ohtani isn't coming.

Sure about that?

If i as paying attention, he got injured, and Twins have been more willing to work round injury concerns than some.

After Correa, i would go so far as to say the chances of it are non-zero.

(Well... unless he limits himself to the West Coast teams for personal reasons, or something like that...

What do i know. Not much, really)

As for TV deals... I wonder how many viewers like you it would take to get them on PBS?

[Rik19753]

I think as fans we try our hardest to demand that they maintain or even increase their payroll, even while understanding that the team is in a murky financial situation and it's highly unlikely they do so.

I see the payroll as something similar to a supply and demand situation. Owners want the team to spend less and the fans want the team to spend more, which results in an equilibrium. Obviously, there are a ton of other factors involved, but I think the aspect of not upsetting fans is something that owners consider when deciding payroll.

Once the fans start giving the owners an excuse to spend less, the owners are undoubtedly going to take that opportunity to cut payroll.

If the fans keep expectations high for the payroll, even if that expectation may be irrational, the owners will have a harder time decreasing the payroll.

I would prefer to deny the Pohlads any chance to justify decreasing payroll, even if the reasons for doing so are perfectly legitimate. Thus, I hope that fans demand we spend money, just like in any other year.

[FlyingFinn]

After the money/budget situation, the next biggest questions I have are: will the Twins play Lewis in CF, when will Kirilloff recover from his surgery and will Lee be with the Twins in April? All of these questions highly affect whether we are keeping Polanco and Farmer and whether we need a CF (unless the Twins think Martin is ready, which I don't think they do).

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Sure about that?

If i as paying attention, he got injured, and Twins have been more willing to work round injury concerns than some.

After Correa, i would go so far as to say the chances of it are non-zero.

(Well... unless he limits himself to the West Coast teams for personal reasons, or something like that...

What do i know. Not much, really)

As for TV deals... I wonder how many viewers like you it would take to get them on PBS?

I can't be absolutely sure. 

I also can't rule out the possibility of becoming President or dating Taylor Swift. 

[Trov]

20 hours ago, rv78 said:

The FO has to seriously look at the production they are getting from their veteran hitters. Or I should say "lack of production". Gallo and his $11M is gone. If not, the FO needs their heads examined and their behinds booted to the door. Let's all hope they learned their lesson signing a hitter that can't hit. Kepler is due a $10M option. I say save the money and give the job to any of the following, Castro, Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, Martin, Gordon. There's a savings of $20+M and you have 6 guys to pick from that will provide just as much run production or more for very little money. Let Polanco walk as well. His option is $10,5M and a combination, or one of Julien, Lewis, Lee can handle 2B. Unfortunately the Twins are tied to Buxton $15.1M and Correa $33.3M. Both mistakes by the FO as both are over-paid for what they provide offensively. Maybe they can be talked into waiving their no trade clauses but I doubt any other team would want them at the cost they are tied to. Sonny Gray got $12.7M so there's a chunk that is going away as well. The rest of the Twins roster is made up of relatively cheap players not named Pablo Lopez. Yes, some are due raises and they should also start to look at extending some of them with reasonable contracts as well. Jeffers for example. It's time to turn the page and start to lean on the youngsters. They're the main reason why the Twins made the playoffs in the first place.

The money that is on books is not counting Gallo or Gray, but it does count Kepler and Polanco, so the 110 is counting those 2.  If you cut them, after the buyouts you save like 19 mil, forget the exact buy outs.  They can be filled with rookies/non-arb guys or cheaper FA.  I agree with moving on from Polanco.  Kepler I am more on fence about, but would not be surprised either way.  

Buck's contract so far is not looking good, but he is only as cheap as it was because of the risk he was.  Had he not been injury prone, he would be earning over $30 mil.  CC had a very down year, but he was hurt all year.  Hopefully with a full offseason of rest he will be more productive next year. He sure was one of the best in the playoffs for us.

My point is that the loss of potential broadcasting money will affect how they move forward and may force the buy outs of Polanco and Kepler, and passing on any FA signings and lean more on the young cheap guys.  Not that it would be a bad thing, but could handcuff what they would want to do. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I can't be absolutely sure. 

I also can't rule out the possibility of becoming President or dating Taylor Swift. 

What about the President dating Taylor Swift?

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

What about the President dating Taylor Swift?

It can't be ruled out. 😎

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

It can't be ruled out. 😎

[Vanimal46]

16 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

I fully expect Scripps Sports to end up with the Twins TV deal. They've been aggressive in doing so in other markets, with Phoenix being the big one. They have a local affiliate, owning ION (Channel 41 for rabbit ears) so no need for cable/satellite. at that point.

That would be great news! Whatever happens, I hope the broadcast is widely available to the largest audience it can reach. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

That would be great news! Whatever happens, I hope the broadcast is widely available to the largest audience it can reach. 

This. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

11 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It can't be ruled out. 😎

Boolean logic calls...

Are you more likely to become president if you date Taylor Swift?

Or vice versa?

 

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Are you more likely to become president if you date Taylor Swift?

Or vice versa?

Are you more likely to become Taylor Swift if you date the president????????????

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Boolean logic calls...

Are you more likely to become president if you date Taylor Swift?

Or vice versa?

 

Since you used "Or". 

[Unwinder]

Jersey patch sponsorship could eat some of the difference between the Bally deal and the new deal.

[Brandon]

I think the Twins management figures they will get something from TV but will scale back since they don’t know.  And I can’t blame them after the losses from COVID seasons.  So a 135 -140 million budget instead of an increase to 160-165 million to continue the playoff push.  

[sampleSizeOfOne]

14 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Boolean logic calls...

Are you more likely to become president if you date Taylor Swift?

Or vice versa?

 

Musta been late... i typed boolean instead of bayesian...

Sorry.

PS. @Riverbrianthose will be cooler venn diagrams.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

8 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Are you more likely to become Taylor Swift if you date the president????????????

I vote for this as biggest off season question..

If we can answer this, we can answer anything!

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Musta been late... i typed boolean instead of bayesian...

Sorry.

PS. @Riverbrianthose will be cooler venn diagrams.

OK... That's much different. No Venn Diagram needed.  

As I age (I am getting older at lightning fast pace it seems). The conditional probability of my becoming President obviously increases while the conditional probability of my dating Taylor Swift decreases.  

[chaderic20]

14 hours ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Are you more likely to become president if you date Taylor Swift?

Or vice versa?

Given the rise in popularity of Travis Kelce jerseys, I'm gonna say you're more likely to become president by dating Taylor Swift than vice versa.

[Nine of twelve]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

As I age (I am getting older at lightning fast pace it seems). 

Life is like a roll of toilet paper. The closer you get to the end, the faster it goes.