Week in Review: Mission Accomplished

[Nick Nelson]

By winning two of three in Cleveland last week, the Twins effectively locked up the division title. But they didn't take their foot off the gas over the weekend, continuing their strong play at home against the Mets.

With their main mission for the regular season all but accomplished, the team can start turning its attention toward the ultimate mission still ahead.

Image courtesy of Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/4 through Sun, 9/10
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 75-68)
Run Differential Last Week: +23 (Overall: +74)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (7.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 138 | MIN 20, CLE 6: Offense Explodes in Stunning Blowout
Game 139 | MIN 8, CLE 3: Another Big Win Buries Cleveland's Hopes
Game 140 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Guardians Avoid Sweep, Silence MN Bats
Game 141 | MIN 5, NYM 2: Wild Seventh Inning Turns Tides for Twins
Game 142 | MIN 8, NYM 4: Timely Hitting Lifts Twins to Series Victory
Game 143 | NYM 2, MIN 0: Lopez's Gem Wasted by Offensive No-Show

NEWS & NOTES

Both because the Twins had a good week and because Cleveland had a very bad week, the magic number is rapidly whittling down in the AL Central, now sitting at 12 as we begin a fresh week with 19 games remaining.

It's not impossible that the Guardians could catch the Twins, but ... just about. Their odds of winning the division are now up to 99.7%, according to FanGraphs. 

With that being the case, Minnesota's focus will gradually begin shifting toward preparations for what's next. They need to get themselves in the best possible shape for the playoffs, which will mean carefully managing workloads and usage while hopefully welcoming a few missing pieces back to the fold.

One of those pieces returned on Friday, when Alex Kirilloff was activated following an impressive rehab stint. He picked up a hit and a walk in the Mets series, starting two of the three games. Joey Gallo managed to avoid getting cut by instead going on the injured list with a foot contusion. We've likely seen the last of him.

Chris Paddack, nearly ready to return from his second Tommy John surgery, opened a rehab assignment in Fort Myers, starting for the Mighty Mussels on Wednesday. His first pitching line since last May: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.

 

Jorge Alcala also commenced a rehab stint with the Single-A club, tossing a perfect inning on Saturday with two strikeouts. Meanwhile, Brock Stewart checked out well following a bullpen session and is expected to embark on his own rehab soon. 

The Twins relief corps already received a boost with the addition of Louie Varland last Monday, and – fingers crossed – it seems like more help is on the way. The question becomes how substantive a look the team can realistically get at these guys in order to build confidence for a postseason role.

HIGHLIGHTS

This past week was the most impressive of the entire season for the Twins. They headed into Cleveland for a high-stakes showdown and absolutely obliterated the Guardians, clenching the division with a forceful showing that left no doubt. Monday's 14-run blowout turned from laughable to cringe-inducing as position players lobbed 50-MPH cookies all over the place and the game dragged.

Royce Lewis was, of course, instrumental in building that massive lead, launching another grand slam and later singling in two more runs en route to a three-hit, six-RBI night. For the week as a whole he was 8-for-22 with three strikeouts and three walks. 

The grand slam in Cleveland was very reminiscent of Miguel Sanó's in September of 2019, which had a similar "calling game" type of feel. Lewis has batted third in all nine games this month, batting .343 and driving in 12 runs.

 

Willi Castro made a big impact during his first week back in action, going 10-for-20 at the plate while swiping a couple bags and handling center field aptly in Michael A. Taylor's absence. Carlos Correa continued his September surge with a 6-for-21 week that included two homers and two doubles. Christian Vázquez came through with a key home run on Tuesday, his second in September after totaling four long balls in the first five months.

With Kirilloff now back in the fold and joining a lineup that has Lewis, Correa, Edouard Julien and Max Kepler all looking fairly locked in, this is suddenly transforming into an offense that no one's going to want to face in October. The bats showed their explosiveness last week in collectively out-scoring opponents 42-19.

The offense does remain prone to completely disappearing on occasion, as we saw on Wednesday and Sunday, but they're averaging 5.5 R/G in the second half after averaging 4.2 R/G in the first half. Consequentially, a team that was 45-46 before the All-Star break is 30-22 since.

Not to be overlooked, pitching also continues to play a key role in Minnesota's rousing success. Sonny Gray was solid against Cleveland on Tuesday; he ranks second behind Gerrit Cole in ERA among AL starters, and will likely finish close behind Cole in the Cy Young voting.

As such, it feels weird to say that Gray is far from a lock to be Minnesota's Game 1 playoff starter. Right now, Pablo López is making an emphatic case for that honor, having spun six innings of one-run ball on Monday and then following up with one of the most dominant starts you'll ever see on Sunday.

Facing a fairly decent Mets offense, López threw eight shutout innings with 14 strikeouts and zero walks. That combination has only been achieved by two pitchers in franchise history: Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven and two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana. 

 

In his first start after the All-Star break, López gave up seven earned runs against Oakland. Since then, he has a 1.89 ERA and 68-to-13 K/BB ratio in 62 innings across 10 starts.

During that timeframe, Luis Arraez has a .315 wOBA and has been worth 0.3 fWAR – he would rank 13th in each of those categories among Twins hitters during the same span. For what it's worth. 

LOWLIGHTS

Although the Twins are trending toward being fairly close to full strength for the playoffs, which would represent a radical departure from their previous norm, it's looking like one pattern will sadly hold: the absence of a remotely representative Byron Buxton.

In his career with Minnesota, Buxton has played on three teams that reached the playoffs, but he's had little opportunity to shine on the biggest stage. 

In 2017, he made two plate appearances in the Wild Card Game against New York before injuring his back in a collision with the wall. In 2019, Buxton was sidelined for most of the second half by a shoulder injury – also suffered in an outfield wall collision – that rendered him unavailable for the ALDS. 

In 2020, Buxton was able to play in Game 1 of the ALWC series against Houston, but he still seemed dazed by the effects of a concussion, striking out three times in four at-bats. He wasn't in the lineup for Game 2, but appeared as a pinch-runner in the eighth inning and got picked off first base as the tying run. 

So that's the lingering sour taste in Buxton's mouth. It's looking increasingly unlikely he'll have a chance to rinse it next month. The 29-year-old's rehab remains paused after he experienced knee soreness in just his second game at Triple-A two weeks ago. The Twins offered a status update on Friday but there wasn't much to update.

He's still not ready to play, and didn't travel with the Saints on a road trip to Iowa that will stretch through the entire next week.

 

Rocco Baldelli and the Twins are still conveying a sense of faint optimism that Buxton could return this year, perhaps even in center field, but from a practical standpoint it's just very hard to see that happening. Which is a humongous bummer.

TRENDING STORYLINE

While the order may not yet be crystallized, it's clear that Gray and López will start the first two games of a playoff series for the Twins. Who would follow them in the event of a third game is less clear, and sets up one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the final three weeks.

The upcoming series against Tampa is the last on Minnesota's schedule a playoff-caliber club. Therefore, Joe Ryan's scheduled start on Tuesday night feels like it has a bit of extra weight – a chance to showcase his ability against an elite Rays offense.

Ryan has been excellent since coming off the injured list, with a 2.40 ERA and 17-to-3 K/BB ratio in three starts, but the ugly stretch that preceded has not been forgotten. Ryan needs to keep cruising and keep the ball in the park if he wants to earn the club's trust for what would be a decisive Game 3.

Kenta Maeda has not pitched as well lately, but he's been resilient and crafty. Since returning from his own IL stint back in late June, Maeda has a 3.70 ERA in 14 starts, with 82 strikeouts in 73 innings. He has a major edge over Ryan when it comes to playoff experience; Maeda has a 2.87 ERA in 27 ⅔ career postseason innings, and was stellar in Game 1 against Houston in 2020. 

Speaking of playoff experience, one other pitcher with a chance to claim or carve out a postseason role is Dallas Keuchel, who's thrown 63 career innings in the playoffs and won a World Series in 2017. 

Keuchel certainly won't be starting any playoff games for the Twins, but could make the staff if he continues to look capable. His latest start, against the Mets on Friday, was his most convincing yet. Keuchel struck out six hitters in five innings after totaling just eight in his first five outings.

The veteran left-hander is lined up to face the Rays on Wednesday, which will be his last remaining opportunity to prove he can be viable against a top-tier lineup.

LOOKING AHEAD

After they get done with Tampa, the Twins' schedule is a cakewalk, starting with four games against a lowly White Sox team that was officially eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend. Thirteen of Minnesota's remaining 19 games are against teams vastly below the .500 mark with nothing to play for.

MONDAY, 9/11: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Glasnow v. RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY, 9/12: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Littell v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, 9/13: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Taj Bradley vs Dallas Keuchel
THURSDAY, 9/14: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kenta Maeda v. TBD
FRIDAY, 9/15: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Jesse Scholtens
SATURDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Dylan Cease
SUNDAY, 9/17: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Touki Toussaint

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[IaBeanCounter]

I'm sure Cle thought the Angels were going to be cakewalk and ended up losing 3 of 4.  I agree that after Tampa the Twins have a favorable schedule.  However, the Twins seem to play to the level of their competition.  When we expect a team to roll over, they end up winning the series.

[Jocko87]

Biggest news of the week is slightly underwhelming.  Julien looking functional at first base is enormous both for this year and going forward.  It makes Gallo completely redundant and opens very tantalizing lineup opportunities.

Varland getting leverage looks is a big deal as well as Stewart, Alcala and Paddack rehabs.  Two solid arms out of that mix would be fantastic.

Correa must not want time off and it may not help his foot anyway. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Why would Gray start game 1? Lopez has been pitching the day before Gray for a while now, and they are already lined up nicely to start games 1 and 2 in that order.  

What kind of rotation rearranging are you suggesting? 

Hopefully Lopez can maintain his dominance and hopefully we have seen his last or second to last long start until October. No sense overworking people at this point, but also you want them to maintain their edge 

[stringer bell]

Nice summary Nick. 
 

I think it could be reported that a couple of rookies (Wallner and Julien) have hit a snag. It is unrealistic to expect everyone to be going good at the start of the “second season”. Most players are holding their own. 
 

It will be interesting to see who emerges as bullpen arms for the postseason. There would seem to be lots of candidates for eight spots. 

[Blyleven2011]

It was a good week  , entertaining  baseball  ...

Royce Lewis  is leading the youngsters  ...

Jorge Polanco  is leading the veterans  ...

We need Polanco in the lineup  , but we will miss him this week as he went on the bereavement list and returned home  ...

[Fat Calvin]

I'm not too worried about Julien.  He hasn't been hitting much, but he's been getting tons of walks and making the opposing pitchers work.  Wallner, on the other hand, concerns me.  I'm wondering if it wouldn't be a bad idea to send Wallner down and bring up Lanarch?  Or would that screw up the chemistry at this late date? 

[William K Johnson]

Agree that Julien and Wallner have hit a wall.   Julien seems to be guessing too much instead of reacting to what is coming.   He sure seems to take a lot of looking strike threes.   Wallner just looks overmatched at the moment.

[mikelink45]

With Kiriloff back and Julien at 1B could Kiriloff replace Wallner as OF?  Wallner is losing a lot of trust as the comments show.  I would love to see him get hot as we finish the season.  

[tony&rodney]

The Twins will be challenged by Tampa Bay because the Rays are among the top five teams in baseball and attempting to catch Baltimore in the standings.

The offense needs to keep scoring a bunch of runs and the White Sox series should allow them an opportunity.

[MABB1959]

I am getting excited but still a bit on the cautious side.  I think making the playoffs is going to happen, NOT winning a series would be devastating.

Where has this team been all year????????????????

[Nine of twelve]

9 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Why would Gray start game 1? Lopez has been pitching the day before Gray for a while now, and they are already lined up nicely to start games 1 and 2 in that order.  

What kind of rotation rearranging are you suggesting? 

Regarding the order in which Gray and Lopez pitch in the postseason, if one is historically better in individual matchups with opposing batters then that’s who goes first. Also, Gray being more experienced may make him slightly better suited for the first postseason game. But beyond that I don’t think it makes much difference.

 I myself am optimistic about this postseason. I think our starting pitching is flying under the radar of most of the national media and I think some eyes will be opened next month.

 

[minman1982]

Let's say that the Twins go 9-10 down the stretch, which would be disappointing given the level of competition that they are going to play. Cleveland would need to end the season 17-1 to claim the division. The Cleveland series last week was basically the last nail in the coffin. Now on to the next task: win a playoff game.

[wabene]

1 minute ago, Nine of twelve said:

Regarding the order in which Gray and Lopez pitch in the postseason, if one is historically better in individual matchups with opposing batters then that’s who goes first. Also, Gray being more experienced may make him slightly better suited for the first postseason game. But beyond that I don’t think it makes much difference.

 I myself am optimistic about this postseason. I think our starting pitching is flying under the radar of most of the national media and I think some eyes will be opened next month.

 

From the very beginning of the season they have treated Pablo like their #1 with an obvious eye on extending him. Knowing that Sonny would not be extended is what gave Pablo the leg up even though Sonny had the longer and stronger resume. When they reset the rotation order after the break it was with the intention of having Pablo first and Sonny second. Even with that being true there still is a chance Sonny is back next year on the Qualifying Offer or a contract extension. I would say this is unlikely. 

[Woof Bronzer]

30 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I myself am optimistic about this postseason. I think our starting pitching is flying under the radar of most of the national media and I think some eyes will be opened next month.

 

Maybe, but don't forget if we end up playing Seattle or Toronto both of those teams arguably have better starting pitching.

Under Falvine no starter has ever gone past 5 in the playoffs and my fear is that they will script the games in advance to turn it over to the pen in the 5th or 6th.   You'd think they learned their lesson on this but I'm not confident.  Starting pitching is our strength, for us to go anywhere in the playoffs the starters have to go deep.  

[DJL44]

Saw this elsewhere and wanted to share

Quote

Lucas Giolito is the first pitcher to allow 8+ runs in a game for 3 different MLB teams in the same season since Bill Magee did so in 1899 for the Louisville Colonels, Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Senators.

 

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, minman1982 said:

Let's say that the Twins go 9-10 down the stretch, which would be disappointing given the level of competition that they are going to play. Cleveland would need to end the season 17-1 to claim the division. The Cleveland series last week was basically the last nail in the coffin. Now on to the next task: win a playoff game.

Actually, because Cleveland holds the tiebreaker going 16-2 would win them the division in that scenario. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Maybe, but don't forget if we end up playing Seattle or Toronto both of those teams arguably have better starting pitching.

Under Falvine no starter has ever gone past 5 in the playoffs and my fear is that they will script the games in advance to turn it over to the pen in the 5th or 6th.   You'd think they learned their lesson on this but I'm not confident.  Starting pitching is our strength, for us to go anywhere in the playoffs the starters have to go deep.  

I am playing wait-n-see, as well. Letting their starters pitch deeper into games will become more important the further they go.

[PDX Twin]

To tell you the truth, I find myself forgetting that Buxton exists as I watch the current Twins team. They'd be better with a peak-performing Buxton in CF, but they would not be better with this season's strikeout-master Buxton at DH.

His biggest role this season has been "pay-role."

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Maybe, but don't forget if we end up playing Seattle or Toronto both of those teams arguably have better starting pitching.

Under Falvine no starter has ever gone past 5 in the playoffs and my fear is that they will script the games in advance to turn it over to the pen in the 5th or 6th.   You'd think they learned their lesson on this but I'm not confident.  Starting pitching is our strength, for us to go anywhere in the playoffs the starters have to go deep.  

Don't starters go shorter in the playoffs as a general rule for all teams?

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

To tell you the truth, I find myself forgetting that Buxton exists as I watch the current Twins team. They'd be better with a peak-performing Buxton in CF, but they would not be better with this season's strikeout-master Buxton at DH.

His biggest role this season has been "pay-role."

Pat Borzi mentioned that the knee injury keeps him from being able to load when he swings. 

Why are Minnesota Twins fans not celebrating the team’s 1st place standing? | MinnPost

Quote

On good days, Buxton can still rake (17 homers). But on bad days, he can’t load up on his back leg. So he compensates elsewhere, leading to hip and hamstring problems.

 

[Jeff K]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Nice summary Nick. 
 

I think it could be reported that a couple of rookies (Wallner and Julien) have hit a snag. It is unrealistic to expect everyone to be going good at the start of the “second season”. Most players are holding their own. 
 

It will be interesting to see who emerges as bullpen arms for the postseason. There would seem to be lots of candidates for eight spots. 

I don't think that Ober should be forgotten.  He needed rest and could be ready to help.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

41 minutes ago, wabene said:

Don't starters go shorter in the playoffs as a general rule for all teams?

That’s the trend, yes, but let’s ask ourselves who is better: Lopez/Gray, or the alternative.

Say they get to the second round, then yeah, they may want to do something like piggyback two+ innings of Varland off of 4+ innings of Maeda. 

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Don't starters go shorter in the playoffs as a general rule for all teams?

This is exactly the kind of thinking I fear, and that leads to the likes of Zack Littel and Cody Stashak pitching in the 5th inning of playoff games while your best pitchers sit and watch.  I doubt fans need a reminder as to how this has worked out under Falvine - I sure hope we don't do the same thing and hope for a different result.  

There should be no "general rules" determined in advance.  Let the game play out, and let your best pitchers pitch.  I trust Gray/Lopez after 80 pitches far more than I trust a fresh Jax or Pagan or Floro.  

[joefish]

Sorry, Bux.

He's gonna have to sit this one out.

[Mortimerkenny21]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

Actually, because Cleveland holds the tiebreaker going 16-2 would win them the division in that scenario. 

Ah that's fine, given their level of play lately. Maybe they play .500 ball, I think Cleveland going 10-8 or 11-7 might even be a stretch. I expect to Twins to play at least .500 or a little better the rest of the way. Tampa will be a good test, maybe Cincy will put up a fight if they are still contending. Twins can just worry about themselves now and be in their best form for post season.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

This is exactly the kind of thinking I fear, and that leads to the likes of Zack Littel and Cody Stashak pitching in the 5th inning of playoff games while your best pitchers sit and watch.  I doubt fans need a reminder as to how this has worked out under Falvine - I sure hope we don't do the same thing and hope for a different result.  

There should be no "general rules" determined in advance.  Let the game play out, and let your best pitchers pitch.  I trust Gray/Lopez after 80 pitches far more than I trust a fresh Jax or Pagan or Floro.  

Done blame the messenger, lol. Adding some facts to the conversation and would like to point out that the Twins do not have a quick hook compared to the league...

Edit: If you want to know my thinking, it goes like this. Win the first playoff game and end the streak. Then just keep winning series until you win it all. How they get there makes no difference to me.

This is from 2015-2022

 

[lake_guy]

7 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

Agree that Julien and Wallner have hit a wall.   Julien seems to be guessing too much instead of reacting to what is coming.   He sure seems to take a lot of looking strike threes.   Wallner just looks overmatched at the moment.

Listening too much to our hitting coaches?

[Minny505]

On 9/11/2023 at 9:23 AM, joefish said:

Sorry, Bux.

He's gonna have to sit this one out.

Buxton or Stevenson will likely make the roster as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. If Buxton is able to go, I'll take him. He's a half a step faster with offensive potential if his spot comes back up. He doesn't need to have a starting role.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On 9/11/2023 at 12:41 PM, wabene said:

Done blame the messenger, lol. Adding some facts to the conversation and would like to point out that the Twins do not have a quick hook compared to the league...

Edit: If you want to know my thinking, it goes like this. Win the first playoff game and end the streak. Then just keep winning series until you win it all. How they get there makes no difference to me.

This is from 2015-2022

 

 

Thanks for posting that. Suprised by 2021 - yikes

I think the point is that Lopez and Gray (and Duran) are the best available pitchers on this team. So when someone say "let the starters pitch deep" it generally means Lopez and Gray. The Twins probably won't get very far if Lopez and Gray don't turn in some quality starts.