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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/4 through Sun, 9/10
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Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 75-68)
Run Differential Last Week: +23 (Overall: +74)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (7.5 GA)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 138 | MIN 20, CLE 6: Offense Explodes in Stunning Blowout
Game 139 | MIN 8, CLE 3: Another Big Win Buries Cleveland's Hopes
Game 140 | CLE 2, MIN 1: Guardians Avoid Sweep, Silence MN Bats
Game 141 | MIN 5, NYM 2: Wild Seventh Inning Turns Tides for Twins
Game 142 | MIN 8, NYM 4: Timely Hitting Lifts Twins to Series Victory
Game 143 | NYM 2, MIN 0: Lopez's Gem Wasted by Offensive No-Show
NEWS & NOTES
Both because the Twins had a good week and because Cleveland had a very bad week, the magic number is rapidly whittling down in the AL Central, now sitting at 12 as we begin a fresh week with 19 games remaining.
It's not impossible that the Guardians could catch the Twins, but ... just about. Their odds of winning the division are now up to 99.7%, according to FanGraphs.
With that being the case, Minnesota's focus will gradually begin shifting toward preparations for what's next. They need to get themselves in the best possible shape for the playoffs, which will mean carefully managing workloads and usage while hopefully welcoming a few missing pieces back to the fold.
One of those pieces returned on Friday, when Alex Kirilloff was activated following an impressive rehab stint. He picked up a hit and a walk in the Mets series, starting two of the three games. Joey Gallo managed to avoid getting cut by instead going on the injured list with a foot contusion. We've likely seen the last of him.
Chris Paddack, nearly ready to return from his second Tommy John surgery, opened a rehab assignment in Fort Myers, starting for the Mighty Mussels on Wednesday. His first pitching line since last May: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
Jorge Alcala also commenced a rehab stint with the Single-A club, tossing a perfect inning on Saturday with two strikeouts. Meanwhile, Brock Stewart checked out well following a bullpen session and is expected to embark on his own rehab soon.
The Twins relief corps already received a boost with the addition of Louie Varland last Monday, and – fingers crossed – it seems like more help is on the way. The question becomes how substantive a look the team can realistically get at these guys in order to build confidence for a postseason role.
HIGHLIGHTS
This past week was the most impressive of the entire season for the Twins. They headed into Cleveland for a high-stakes showdown and absolutely obliterated the Guardians, clenching the division with a forceful showing that left no doubt. Monday's 14-run blowout turned from laughable to cringe-inducing as position players lobbed 50-MPH cookies all over the place and the game dragged.
Royce Lewis was, of course, instrumental in building that massive lead, launching another grand slam and later singling in two more runs en route to a three-hit, six-RBI night. For the week as a whole he was 8-for-22 with three strikeouts and three walks.
The grand slam in Cleveland was very reminiscent of Miguel Sanó's in September of 2019, which had a similar "calling game" type of feel. Lewis has batted third in all nine games this month, batting .343 and driving in 12 runs.
Willi Castro made a big impact during his first week back in action, going 10-for-20 at the plate while swiping a couple bags and handling center field aptly in Michael A. Taylor's absence. Carlos Correa continued his September surge with a 6-for-21 week that included two homers and two doubles. Christian Vázquez came through with a key home run on Tuesday, his second in September after totaling four long balls in the first five months.
With Kirilloff now back in the fold and joining a lineup that has Lewis, Correa, Edouard Julien and Max Kepler all looking fairly locked in, this is suddenly transforming into an offense that no one's going to want to face in October. The bats showed their explosiveness last week in collectively out-scoring opponents 42-19.
The offense does remain prone to completely disappearing on occasion, as we saw on Wednesday and Sunday, but they're averaging 5.5 R/G in the second half after averaging 4.2 R/G in the first half. Consequentially, a team that was 45-46 before the All-Star break is 30-22 since.
Not to be overlooked, pitching also continues to play a key role in Minnesota's rousing success. Sonny Gray was solid against Cleveland on Tuesday; he ranks second behind Gerrit Cole in ERA among AL starters, and will likely finish close behind Cole in the Cy Young voting.
As such, it feels weird to say that Gray is far from a lock to be Minnesota's Game 1 playoff starter. Right now, Pablo López is making an emphatic case for that honor, having spun six innings of one-run ball on Monday and then following up with one of the most dominant starts you'll ever see on Sunday.
Facing a fairly decent Mets offense, López threw eight shutout innings with 14 strikeouts and zero walks. That combination has only been achieved by two pitchers in franchise history: Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven and two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana.
In his first start after the All-Star break, López gave up seven earned runs against Oakland. Since then, he has a 1.89 ERA and 68-to-13 K/BB ratio in 62 innings across 10 starts.
During that timeframe, Luis Arraez has a .315 wOBA and has been worth 0.3 fWAR – he would rank 13th in each of those categories among Twins hitters during the same span. For what it's worth.
LOWLIGHTS
Although the Twins are trending toward being fairly close to full strength for the playoffs, which would represent a radical departure from their previous norm, it's looking like one pattern will sadly hold: the absence of a remotely representative Byron Buxton.
In his career with Minnesota, Buxton has played on three teams that reached the playoffs, but he's had little opportunity to shine on the biggest stage.
In 2017, he made two plate appearances in the Wild Card Game against New York before injuring his back in a collision with the wall. In 2019, Buxton was sidelined for most of the second half by a shoulder injury – also suffered in an outfield wall collision – that rendered him unavailable for the ALDS.
In 2020, Buxton was able to play in Game 1 of the ALWC series against Houston, but he still seemed dazed by the effects of a concussion, striking out three times in four at-bats. He wasn't in the lineup for Game 2, but appeared as a pinch-runner in the eighth inning and got picked off first base as the tying run.
So that's the lingering sour taste in Buxton's mouth. It's looking increasingly unlikely he'll have a chance to rinse it next month. The 29-year-old's rehab remains paused after he experienced knee soreness in just his second game at Triple-A two weeks ago. The Twins offered a status update on Friday but there wasn't much to update.
He's still not ready to play, and didn't travel with the Saints on a road trip to Iowa that will stretch through the entire next week.
Rocco Baldelli and the Twins are still conveying a sense of faint optimism that Buxton could return this year, perhaps even in center field, but from a practical standpoint it's just very hard to see that happening. Which is a humongous bummer.
TRENDING STORYLINE
While the order may not yet be crystallized, it's clear that Gray and López will start the first two games of a playoff series for the Twins. Who would follow them in the event of a third game is less clear, and sets up one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the final three weeks.
The upcoming series against Tampa is the last on Minnesota's schedule a playoff-caliber club. Therefore, Joe Ryan's scheduled start on Tuesday night feels like it has a bit of extra weight – a chance to showcase his ability against an elite Rays offense.
Ryan has been excellent since coming off the injured list, with a 2.40 ERA and 17-to-3 K/BB ratio in three starts, but the ugly stretch that preceded has not been forgotten. Ryan needs to keep cruising and keep the ball in the park if he wants to earn the club's trust for what would be a decisive Game 3.
Kenta Maeda has not pitched as well lately, but he's been resilient and crafty. Since returning from his own IL stint back in late June, Maeda has a 3.70 ERA in 14 starts, with 82 strikeouts in 73 innings. He has a major edge over Ryan when it comes to playoff experience; Maeda has a 2.87 ERA in 27 ⅔ career postseason innings, and was stellar in Game 1 against Houston in 2020.
Speaking of playoff experience, one other pitcher with a chance to claim or carve out a postseason role is Dallas Keuchel, who's thrown 63 career innings in the playoffs and won a World Series in 2017.
Keuchel certainly won't be starting any playoff games for the Twins, but could make the staff if he continues to look capable. His latest start, against the Mets on Friday, was his most convincing yet. Keuchel struck out six hitters in five innings after totaling just eight in his first five outings.
The veteran left-hander is lined up to face the Rays on Wednesday, which will be his last remaining opportunity to prove he can be viable against a top-tier lineup.
LOOKING AHEAD
After they get done with Tampa, the Twins' schedule is a cakewalk, starting with four games against a lowly White Sox team that was officially eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend. Thirteen of Minnesota's remaining 19 games are against teams vastly below the .500 mark with nothing to play for.
MONDAY, 9/11: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Glasnow v. RHP Sonny Gray
TUESDAY, 9/12: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Littell v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, 9/13: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Taj Bradley vs Dallas Keuchel
THURSDAY, 9/14: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kenta Maeda v. TBD
FRIDAY, 9/15: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Jesse Scholtens
SATURDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Dylan Cease
SUNDAY, 9/17: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Touki Toussaint
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- ToddlerHarmon, Clare, Jocko87 and 4 others
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