The Unbelievable Success of Walker Jenkins at Just 18 Years Old

[Matt Braun]

Can we find some comps for the 18-year-old with no regard for pitcher’s egos?

Image courtesy of Michael Cuneo/STARNEWS / USA TODAY NETWORK

Most 18-year-olds are pretty useless. I mean, @Matt Braun, at 18, was entering his Freshman year of college, and he didn't end up doing much that year outside of playing Mario Kart with his buddies on the weekend. Stone sober, of course. Classes? Don't need them; I was feeling tired anyway. That's your average 18-year-old: draining society with their laziness. 

Walker Jenkins is not average. After taking the Twins down to the wire in contract negotiations, he suited up for the FCL team and hit .333/.390/.537, leading to Minnesota's decision-makers declaring that they've seen enough. Jenkins was sent to Fort Myers when short-season ball ended, and he has since slashed an even better .447/.488/.684, with one strikeout. One. Hey, at least I was a menace on Rainbow Road.

His performance so far has been impressive—probably even beyond what the wildest optimist could conceive—so let's look at the numbers and see if we can find some historical comparisons for the terror out of North Carolina.

40 plate appearances is a putrid sample size, but going back to 2006 (the extent of Fangraphs' minor league data), no one tops Jenkins' 1.112 OPS as an 18-year-old at A-ball. Some of his close contemporaries are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto... Domingo Santana... and Giancarlo Stanton. Some players around him never became stars—that happens when you look at small samples in the lower minors—but there are also some undeniable superheroes, easy Hall of Famers, who shaped the game's landscape.

But stretching 40-plate appearances that thin, especially when some of these guys are sitting at 500+, is a dangerous game. Expanding the sample to all 18-year-olds with at least 100 plate appearances in a minor league season (conveniently, the number Jenkins has split between Rookie and A-Ball) gives us some interesting results. 

The greatest 18-and-under batter in recent MiLB history was Malcom Nuñez, who hit for a Bondsian 238 wRC+ in Rookie Ball in 2018. He's now a fringe prospect with the Pirates.

So it goes. You'll still find guys like Joey Gallo and Nolan Gorman populating the leaderboard, but most young batters bashing in the low minors hit a wall somewhere in their future development, finding the older competition more challenging to dominate as all the boys mixed in with the men get filtered out eventually. 

Still, Jenkins is 44th on the list by OPS, tied with Austin Riley as one of the best youngsters to eviscerate his peers thoroughly.

Most impressively, though, is that strikeout rate: most 18-year-olds only have a sporadic relationship with contact, finding the ball reclusive and tricky. Not Jenkins. Only one non-DSL hitter—William Bergolla of the Phillies—has a lower K-rate than him amongst 18-year-olds with at least 100 minor league plate appearances. Most are slugging at or around .400; Jenkins is at .579. 

Honestly, I don't think his numbers can tell us much of anything at this point; you can strangle stats until they tell you what you want to see, but the reality is, plenty of 18-year-olds have appeared to be an unstoppable comet, streaking through the sky, seemingly unable to be stopped until some force (pitchers that aren't literal teenagers) kills their momentum. It happens. It can happen here. 

So, be excited about Jenkins' tremendous start—lord knows I am—but practicing at least a little discipline may also be wise. Minor league stats can be informal, but they also often lie, leading to unrealistic expectations and dramatic levels of hype that can swallow you whole without you even realizing it. Jermaine Palacios once looked like an unstoppable force, after all. 

 

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[D.C Twins]

Doesn't it always seem to come down to if they can learn to hit an MLB level breaking ball?

That being said, I couldn't be more excited in the present. (And he looks like he is right out of central casting for an MLB star in a movie :)

[Nashvilletwin]

31 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Doesn't it always seem to come down to if they can learn to hit an MLB level breaking ball?

That being said, I couldn't be more excited in the present. (And he looks like he is right out of central casting for an MLB star in a movie :)

Agree - the best comp is obvious: he’s Robert Redford as Roy Hobbs in The Natural.

[tony&rodney]

Jenkins and likely all other Mussels end their season on Sunday. Cedar Rapids is already pretty full of players. It doesn't seem like players will move up to A+ for those playoffs.

The offseason will allow Jenkins to prepare for 2024 and the possibility of a Jackson Holliday type development.. 

[Otaknam]

It’s great so see Jenkins have so much easy success right away, and that the FO  is being aggressive with his development. High batting average, power, speed, and lots of contact w few strikeouts. But I’m not sure what the point of this column is. 1. Be really excited because Jenkins’ stats are other worldly for an 18 year old? Or 2. But he doesn’t have very many at bats so don’t put him into the HOF just yet? I’ll just wait to see how next year goes as he hopefully works his way to AA. If the team thinks he is that advanced would they be REALLY aggressive and assign him the Arizona Fall League in 2023? I don’t think so but …….

[Whitey333]

Didn't read much of the article.  You lost me when you said most 18 year Olds are useless.  Totally untrue and unnecessary com.ent.

[arby58]

10 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Didn't read much of the article.  You lost me when you said most 18 year Olds are useless.  Totally untrue and unnecessary com.ent.

This is just speculation, but sometimes writers sprinkle in a little levity to keep things from becoming pedantic (as statistics sometimes do). My suggestion (as I believe the author did) would be to lighten up.

[Nine of twelve]

I’m sure there is temptation to rush his development based on better-than-expected performance so far but I would expect cooler heads to prevail. We will know when it’s time for him to advance to the next level. Joe Mauer made it to the majors before he turned 21 but that’s a really rare accomplishment.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great article about my fellow North Carolinian. Thanks Matt.

[Knotholemike]

Hey, at least he's no Keoni Cavaco.  Anything is better than that performance.

[joefish]

Anybody know why I can't see this article? Just black screen and ads? No text?

[DocBauer]

23 minutes ago, joefish said:

Anybody know why I can't see this article? Just black screen and ads? No text?

You have to switch from the "dark mode" to the traditional "white mode" in order to view. (Circle on top of the banner-half shaded).

For whatever reason, about a third of all the front page articles won't display in the dark mode these days.

[joefish]

Yes. Thanks, Doc.

[Dave Borton]

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Didn't read much of the article.  You lost me when you said most 18 year Olds are useless.  Totally untrue and unnecessary com.ent.

Tongue in cheek w/self-references. 

[dxpavelka]

Don't be trevor larnach

[cmoss84]

8 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Doesn't it always seem to come down to if they can learn to hit an MLB level breaking ball?

That being said, I couldn't be more excited in the present. (And he looks like he is right out of central casting for an MLB star in a movie :)

I was at a scouting combine years ago and had an opportunity to talk with Matt Nokes...asked him any tips for hitting good curveballs. He told me, "yeah...don't miss the fastballs."

[RpR]

Players who make it to the Bigs in their early twenties are not unusual, there just does not seem to be as many as there used to, but Jenkins seems to fit that mold so enjoy the ride.

[Dman]

Jenkins is good at making contact.  I don't think I have seen a bat like him since maybe Joe Mauer (another tough guy to strike out). Agree the sample size is too small to gain much insight and there are a lot of challenges ahead, but he is off to a really good start and those are hard to come by for 18 year old's in their first year.  Really happy to see him doing so well and hope he becomes a star player in time.

[Heiny]

 It's great to see him doing so well in his first season as a pro and I'm very excited for him.  But let's see what happens in 2024 before making a Joe Mauer out of him.  He's so young.  Let him play.  His performance will dictate how fast he moves up.  Nothing wrong with being excited and hoping he is a future superstar, but time will tell.  I'm honestly very happy with both of our last two top picks.(including Lee)  But let's not put too much pressure on the kids cuz really, they are still just kids.  Enjoy the present.  The future will play out how it plays out.  See you at the ballpark.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

The only question left is does he enter the HOF with a Twins hat or a Yankees hat when the Twins won't resign him.

[nicksaviking]

15 minutes ago, SoDakTwinsFan said:

The only question left is does he enter the HOF with a Twins hat or a Yankees hat when the Twins won't resign him.

Why wouldn't the Twins re-sign him if he's a HOF caliber player?

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea if it's really unbelievable.... But any Twins fan not excited about him is taking an odd stance, imo 

[MN_ExPat]

On 9/9/2023 at 5:45 PM, cmoss84 said:

I was at a scouting combine years ago and had an opportunity to talk with Matt Nokes...asked him any tips for hitting good curveballs. He told me, "yeah...don't miss the fastballs."

In HS my son told me "2-0 changeups are why I have trust issues".

(There is a very good reason why he is pitching in college and hasn't picked up a bat in years )

[twinstalker]

The strikeout rate is the important stat.  Well, that and the fact it's harder than hell to hit in the FSL and maybe more so in Fort Myers.  I see he's at 6 Ks now, so something bad happened, but if he's K-ing under 12% of the time, that's still a great sign.