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Knotholemike

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Everything posted by Knotholemike

  1. Knotholemike
    Signing Carlos Correa, which committed a huge portion of the payroll to a slightly above average shortstop who really wanted to move to third base was the beginning of the end for the Twins. Had they let him walk after the 2022 season they would have spent the money elsewhere, including potentially re-signing Sonny Gray. They most likely would have made the playoffs without Correa anyway. The return from Correa was minimal at best, detrimental at worst.
  2. Knotholemike
    Hey, at least he's no Keoni Cavaco. Anything is better than that performance.
  3. Knotholemike
    No, no, no to any backup plan that includes signing free agent flotsam. No to the Nolasco's, Bundy's, Archer's, Morrison's, Lynn's and Donaldson's of the FA world. They will make no difference in the win column. Better to bank the funds the Twins otherwise would have spent on Correa, play the kids, see what happens, and then maybe go for it next year. Of course, this assumes that any premium free agent would want to sign to play in Minnesota. The reality is that they do not.
  4. Knotholemike
    The fact that Arroyo "has not received an offer" is a little misleading. If his agent said the minimum we'll take is "$x" million per year and/or "x" number of years a team is not going to make an offer if their offer would be less than that minimum. This is why agents/teams "circle back" with one another as the off-season progresses to see if either side has changed their stance. Arroyo is probably still holding out for more dollars/years than anyone wants to offer at this point.
  5. Knotholemike
    Did anyone else notice that should the Twins sign Garza their entire starting staff will be right-handed? I also like the idea of signing lefty Johan Santana to a split contract a la Jason Kubel, assuming he's still got something left.
  6. Knotholemike
    See. This proves it. All the good FAs go to the West or East coasts.
  7. Knotholemike
    Exactly. At this point all the Twins are trying to do is to get something out of the $23M per year. The rest of it is a sunk cost; water under the bridge.
  8. Knotholemike
    So Parmelee, Colabello and possibly Plouffe fight it out for right field/DH. At least one, and most likely two of them are gone by the end of 2014 unless Willingham bounces back and is traded before the deadline.
  9. Knotholemike
    It is this kind of thinking that gets GMs fired. Cleveland just signed Capps to a "minor league deal with a major league invite" as I predicted. Lose the boss' money on stupid deals (no matter how large or small) will get you fired. [see Smith, Bill].
  10. Knotholemike
    Yay!
  11. Knotholemike
    That's what I said. Citing a single number from different sources is different than what Cots presents which is the actual breakdown of each individual salaried major leaguer and other obligations.
  12. Knotholemike
    The $100M payroll was NOT a media major rounding up. Go to Cots Baseball Contracts on Baseball Prospectus for the actual totals. Minnesota Twins | Cot's Baseball Contracts. The media will sometimes only site the payroll obligations of players on the major league roster, not those who have been cut loose but who are owed guaranteed money. This year's payroll obligation is currently sitting at around $72M which includes Nick Blackburn's $5.5M salary. He's not on the major league roster and some media outlets will site the lower $67M figure. Once all of the kids are signed the payroll, and assuming no other major league player is added, the payroll will be around $78M-80M including Nick Blackburn's salary.
  13. Knotholemike
    Shhh....Don't let anyone else know. This is our little secret. Why would anyone want to spoil it? Having lived all over the country, I can't think of places that offer what Minnesota has to offer. It is just reality that a lot of pro athletes and their agents want the media attention and endorsements of a big market. The perception is that Minnesota is just fly-over country. The Twins would have to overpay for top free agents which they smartly will not do.
  14. Knotholemike
    The Orioles have moved on. It is unbelievable how many people on this board simply do not do the math or examine the specifics of what other teams are doing/have done. Saunders has only 3 different options left: Seattle, San Diego and Minnesota. I said this previously to all those wannabe GMs who wanted to give Saunders $10M to $12.5M per year for multiple years. BTB, any "major" free agent will avoid the frozen tundra of Minnesota if at all possible. This is reality. Deal with it. It would take a very special free agent to accept a deal with the Twins. Take that to your ice fishing house and smoke it.
  15. Knotholemike
    $1M is NOT reasonable. If anyone had offered him a $1M major league contract he would have signed it in a heartbeat. He has not been effective in more than 1 year and there are plenty of younger options with potential upside available for the major league minimum. There are plenty of Capps-like players in AAA that can be had for a minor league deal and an invite.
  16. Knotholemike
    What are you guys smokin'? $1M - $2.5M for Capps, no way. He'll get a minor league deal with a spring training invite. What he made in the past does not matter. He has not shown the ability to put hitters away in more than a year. He is replacement level at best, and there are lots of guys like him who could be had on a minor league deal.
  17. Knotholemike
    One of the most over-rated prospects of ALL time.
  18. Knotholemike
    He has walked too many batters at every level he has played.
  19. Knotholemike
    This is another good one.
  20. Knotholemike
    I'm keeping this as one of my favorites from this site.
  21. Knotholemike
    It will not take an 8-figure annual salary or more than 2 plus an option year to sign Joe Saunders. Pitchers have been signing for about $3.3M per WAR this off-season when one adjusts for the low first-year salary contracts Jeremy Guthrie and Anibal Sanchez signed. Joe Saunders has posted an average WAR of 1.8 the past 6 years with last year being his second best at 2.5. That puts him at about $6M a year (which is what he made last year). There is not a lot of upside potential there so giving him a premium would not be necessary, but his consistency is probably worth an adjustment to say $8M per year. No one (except Dayton Moore and especially not Terry Ryan) is going to give more than a 2 year contract to someone who is consistent but with limited upside. My guess would be 2 years for around $16M or $17M, and maybe an option for a 3rd year based on innings pitched or some other benchmark. He could get more but it would probably be a one-year deal for about $10M.
  22. Knotholemike
  23. Knotholemike
    And Blackburn's $5.5M, and Jamie Caroll, Pelfry, etc. the payroll liability for the Twins in 2014 right now is more like in the low 40s. This boggles my mind since there are no impending large arbitration awards on the horizon. The only explanation I could see is that Ryan believes none of the pitchers that got multi-year deals was worth it. I know I would feel a lot better if they signed Shaun Marcum to a 2-year deal at $8-10M per year. Clearly he has not signed because no one wants to give him a long-term contract or more money. This would not break the bank and he would be a great fit for Target Field so it is puzzling.
  24. Knotholemike
    Wow! Looking at it that way one understands why the Twins front office is more optimistic with Correia, Pelfry, Harden, etc. in the fold than the bunch they suffered with last year. The front office probably sees Correia as a better option than Liriano and Pelfry as a less expensive risk than Baker. No wow factor there but if they just put up their average career numbers they'll be a huge improvement over the bunch that gave the Twins up an average of 7 runs over 580 innings. I still think the Twins could land either Saunders or Marcum.
  25. Knotholemike
    Ha Ha Ha
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