Free Austin Martin

[AlwaysinModeration]

August slash line:  378/506/636

(For reference, Jordan Luplow August:  200/300/343)

Martin had a down year in 2022, but he OPSed 796 in 2021 in the minors and his OPS is up to 841 this year.  He walks almost as much as he strikes out (25:27 this year), and he is stealing at an 83% success rate across his minor league career.

I get that there is some complication with impending returns of Buxton and Castro, but Martin is on fire right now.  Would love to see him join Julien and Wallner as another batter with good plate discipline on the roster. 

Call him up before the calendar turns to September!

 

[Dman]

Yeah Martin is showing why he was a top 25 top 100 prospect not that long ago.  His contact oriented swing appears to be back and he has added some power.  It will never be elite power but enough to keep pitchers honest.  There is a ton to like in his Small Sample Size,, but that is all it is at this point a small sample size.  

In general he is a Castro clone with better plate discipline and they already have Castro on the roster. Sure they could swap him for Luplo but once guys like Castro, Kirilloff and Buxton get back just how many at bats would there be for Martin at the MLB level?  I think it will take a late season injury or two before we see Martin.  I have to believe the Twins want him to get as many at bats as possible after being injured earlier in the year and relying on SSS's isn't a good way to manage your 40 man roster.

I am incredibly happy to see Martin performing at a level we thought was a given when we traded for him.  If he makes it to MLB this year great if not I get some of the reason's why the Twins aren't quite ready to move him there just yet.  He will be added to the 40 man in the offseason for sure and will be a big part of the core of this team in the future hopefully turning into a pseudo Arraez clone over time.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Martin has had a hot month and he looks strong.  I am fine with letting him continue to gain confidence with his new approach.  I do think he would/will be good at the MLB level but waiting til next year would be okay in my mind. Martin has plenty of whiplash between trying to change his approach and multiple injuries.  Letting him settle in at AAA for another month may be just what he needs.  We are so lucky he didn't need tommy john.  

[jorgenswest]

I think an argument can be made without using his stat line. He will give the Twins versatility, speed and a right handed bat.

The stat line from AAA is so skewed this year. An .800 OPS is ordinary and just below average. Walks and strikeouts are off because the automated strike zone is so small. The Athletic reported about the automated strike zone in two article. Lewis is quoted in one of them. With the robo umps pitchers are allowing 5.2 walks per nine innings. That isn’t close to the major league context for walks. It is also forcing pitchers to throw more center cut pitches to avoid walks. Some batters have the skill to really take advantage of the strike zone. I do worry though how they will respond to a different strike zone in the majors. It would almost be better to see them swing more in the minors.

Unless a batter like Julien or Wallner have shown better than a 130 wRC+ across multiple years I don’t think stats from just this year or part of this year can be used to justify a call up. The argument really needs to be made without the stat line. I don’t think the stat line supports the notion that Martin put up a better OPS against left handed pitching than Luplow or a better option than Castro for the remainder of the season.

Does Martin bring skills to the team that can’t be found in the return of Castro? Do they need them both? Maybe. He needs to be put on the 40 this winter so a move to the roster is imminent. Miranda can be moved to the 60 day IL since he isn’t able to throw yet. Luplow can be optioned and Castro can continue rehab assignment for a while. Castro also can be optioned.

[chpettit19]

I don't need him on the 26-man before September, but I think they should consider putting him on the 40-man in the next couple days to get him playoff eligible to give themselves another possible bench weapon in October. I don't know where they're at with their plans to keep certain guys after this season, but I have to assume he's taking a 40-man spot this offseason so there should be a pretty straight forward path to just getting him on there now. I'm quite positive we won't be seeing Buxton, Castro, or Kirilloff on the September 1 roster so I'd think you could get Martin on the 40-man before September 1, and get him on the 26-man to start September before replacing him with the first IL return guy. I don't expect any of this to happen, but it's what I'd do.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't need him on the 26-man before September, but I think they should consider putting him on the 40-man in the next couple days to get him playoff eligible to give themselves another possible bench weapon in October. I don't know where they're at with their plans to keep certain guys after this season, but I have to assume he's taking a 40-man spot this offseason so there should be a pretty straight forward path to just getting him on there now. I'm quite positive we won't be seeing Buxton, Castro, or Kirilloff on the September 1 roster so I'd think you could get Martin on the 40-man before September 1, and get him on the 26-man to start September before replacing him with the first IL return guy. I don't expect any of this to happen, but it's what I'd do.

Yeah given Castro's back issue it might be prudent to have his clone (Martin) available.  I agree though that I don't think they will do it, but maybe they will surprise us?

[AlwaysinModeration]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't need him on the 26-man before September, but I think they should consider putting him on the 40-man in the next couple days to get him playoff eligible to give themselves another possible bench weapon in October. 

So, as long as he is on the 40-man roster by Sept 1, he is eligible for any post-season roster?

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

So, as long as he is on the 40-man roster by Sept 1, he is eligible for any post-season roster?

Correct. At least that's my understanding. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. 

Have to be on the 40-man or 60-day IL before the clock strikes 12 AM on September 1 to be playoff eligible. May be some funny injury replacement things in there, but that's the general gist of things.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Correct. At least that's my understanding. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. 

Have to be on the 40-man or 60-day IL before the clock strikes 12 AM on September 1 to be playoff eligible. May be some funny injury replacement things in there, but that's the general gist of things.

Yes.  There is a bit more flexibility when there is an injury involved. I believe then you can sub in a bat for an injured bat or an arm for an injured arm. 

————

According to MLB:

“A player who doesn't meet said criteria for postseason eligibility can still be added to a team's roster in the postseason via petition to the Commissioner's Office if the player was in the organization on Aug. 31 and is replacing someone who is on the injured list and has served the minimum amount of time required for activation. (For example, a player on the 10-day injured list who has been on it for at least 10 days, or a player who has been on the 60-day injured list for at least 60 days.) Players who are acquired in September or after are ineligible.”

————

It doesn’t talk specifically about the 40 man roster (that is in another place), but refers to “in the organization”, which I’m taking to mean that in the event of injury all bets are off.  I think in most cases someone will get injured near the end of the season (or someone may get “injured”) so that could work also.  However, my interpretation of that could be incorrect. 

 

[SteveLV]

A reasonable argument could be made to add both Castro and Martin.  Luplow obvious target.  Gallo or one of the marginal pitchers could be another spot.  It gives the Twins a ton of flexibility in tight playoff games with PH and PR options and plenty of positions covered.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Unless Kiriloff is 100% healthy do we really anticipate cutting Gallo?  

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Dman said:

I am incredibly happy to see Martin performing at a level we thought was a given when we traded for him.  If he makes it to MLB this year great if not I get some of the reason's why the Twins aren't quite ready to move him there just yet.  He will be added to the 40 man in the offseason for sure and will be a big part of the core of this team in the future hopefully turning into a pseudo Arraez clone over time.  

He has some upside Arraez does not have given the physical tools for defense and base running.  He won't be a 25HR guy but he should have a higher slugging percentage than Arraez and a lot of those singles will turn to doubles with stolen bases.  

[nicksaviking]

Call him up, even if it's to see if he's a CF option for 2024. I don't want another season where the team feels they have to find a Michael Taylor to fill the role because they aren't sure what they have internally.

[stringer bell]

I buy the arguments that say Martin should stay in St. Paul for now. I hope/expect he will be on the roster next April and it will be interesting to see how having Martin will effect roster decisions on Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon and Donovan Solano, to name a few. I can't see a roster in '24 with all of those guys. 

The Twins need more contact and speed and Martin provides that plus versatility. He hasn't played that much outfield until this season. I don't know how good he is as an outfielder, but he certainly seems fast enough to cover a lot of ground.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd call him up, but it isn't happening. They'd rather give away outs with Luplow and Gallo than make this move. I understand all the moving pieces.... But he was a top prospect, hurt, and is now healthy. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

20 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd call him up, but it isn't happening. They'd rather give away outs with Luplow and Gallo than make this move. I understand all the moving pieces.... But he was a top prospect, hurt, and is now healthy. 

Well, I’m sure they prefer Luplow and Gallo make fewer outs, honestly.  But I’m guessing Luplow at minimum is skating on some very thin ice, whether it be for Martin or one of the rehab guys.

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Well, I’m sure they prefer Luplow and Gallo make fewer outs, honestly.  But I’m guessing Luplow at minimum is skating on some very thin ice, whether it be for Martin or one of the rehab guys.

And yet, he's up and playing nearly every day, for how long now? And how much longer?

[Squirrel]

36 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd call him up, but it isn't happening. They'd rather give away outs with Luplow and Gallo than make this move. I understand all the moving pieces.... But he was a top prospect, hurt, and is now healthy. 

Yes, that is their strategy … to intentionally give away outs and games. While I agree that I’d rather see Martin up than either Luplow or Gallo, can we at least stop this rhetoric that there is willful, intentional harm in the FO strategy? I agree with you … it was time to part ways with Gallo long ago, but this rhetoric is becoming conspiracy theory toned to it

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yes, that is their strategy … to intentionally give away outs and games. While I agree that I’d rather see Martin up than either Luplow or Gallo, can we at least stop this rhetoric that there is willful, intentional harm in the FO strategy? I agree with you … it was time to part ways with Gallo long ago, but this rhetoric is becoming conspiracy theory toned to it

Wut?

Both are terrible, and both are up. They'd rather have both up, even though they've proven to be terrible, than Martin. That's all I've said. There's no conspiracy,I don't even know what that could mean. 

[Squirrel]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Wut?

Both are terrible, and both are up. They'd rather have both up, even though they've proven to be terrible, than Martin. That's all I've said. There's no conspiracy,I don't even know what that could mean. 

They would rather give away outs than bring up Martin. Really? They would rather intentionally give away outs? You make it sound as if they are doing something nefarious intentionally to give away the games. And I agree with your strategy but could we please tone down the rhetoric just a little. I don’t get it either, but I don’t think it’s because they are trying to give something away

[Schmoeman5]

5 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

Yes, that is their strategy … to intentionally give away outs and games. While I agree that I’d rather see Martin up than either Luplow or Gallo, can we at least stop this rhetoric that there is willful, intentional harm in the FO strategy? I agree with you … it was time to part ways with Gallo long ago, but this rhetoric is becoming conspiracy theory toned to it

You're right. It's not that they're committing willful intentional harm. But as analytical as the Twins organization is are they just wishing and hoping that these holes will miraculouly improve just by penning their names in the lineup? Why not try something different? But that time was when Buxton went down as well as Castro. And Martin wasnt en fuego then. But still. They had options. Just chose the wrong one

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

They would rather give away outs than bring up Martin. Really? They would rather intentionally give away outs? You make it sound as if they are doing something nefarious intentionally to give away the games. And I agree with your strategy but could we please tone down the rhetoric just a little. I don’t get it either, but I don’t think it’s because they are trying to give something away

They are giving away outs. Luplow is one of the worst hitters on a MLB team. Gallo is striking out over forty percent of the time. They've chosen to keep those two on the roster. That's all I mean, I don't even know how it can be taken to mean anything else, but I'll stop typing that since it's clearly not coming across

[stringer bell]

51 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They are giving away outs. Luplow is one of the worst hitters on a MLB team. Gallo is striking out over forty percent of the time. They've chosen to keep those two on the roster. That's all I mean, I don't even know how it can be taken to mean anything else, but I'll stop typing that since it's clearly not coming across

I think they feel like they can be patient with guys like Correa, Gallo, Buxton and Luplow with a six-game lead. Especially with promising reports on Kirilloff, Buxton and the rest. Specifically, we've seen Gallo hit a bunch of homers in a short time and Luplow has had success in the past against left handed pitching. 

If they were up or down by a game, they might not be as patient. 

[nicksaviking]

21 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think they feel like they can be patient with guys like Correa, Gallo, Buxton and Luplow with a six-game lead. Especially with promising reports on Kirilloff, Buxton and the rest. Specifically, we've seen Gallo hit a bunch of homers in a short time and Luplow has had success in the past against left handed pitching. 

If they were up or down by a game, they might not be as patient. 

I actually think they feel that when veterans fail, the blame can be deflected on to the player, but when the rookie fails, it falls entirely on the front office. I don't think this is singular to the Twins front office or even baseball front offices, and I'm beyond confident they desperately want to win, they just can't get past the fear of the unknown and this is way to dodge some tough questions.

However, for a team that likes to deal in analytics, I'm sure they're aware that unproven youth provides better returns than cast off vets. All they have to do is look at their rosters for the past couple of years.

[Trov]

On 8/28/2023 at 8:22 AM, jorgenswest said:

I think an argument can be made without using his stat line. He will give the Twins versatility, speed and a right handed bat.

The stat line from AAA is so skewed this year. An .800 OPS is ordinary and just below average. Walks and strikeouts are off because the automated strike zone is so small. The Athletic reported about the automated strike zone in two article. Lewis is quoted in one of them. With the robo umps pitchers are allowing 5.2 walks per nine innings. That isn’t close to the major league context for walks. It is also forcing pitchers to throw more center cut pitches to avoid walks. Some batters have the skill to really take advantage of the strike zone. I do worry though how they will respond to a different strike zone in the majors. It would almost be better to see them swing more in the minors.

Unless a batter like Julien or Wallner have shown better than a 130 wRC+ across multiple years I don’t think stats from just this year or part of this year can be used to justify a call up. The argument really needs to be made without the stat line. I don’t think the stat line supports the notion that Martin put up a better OPS against left handed pitching than Luplow or a better option than Castro for the remainder of the season.

Does Martin bring skills to the team that can’t be found in the return of Castro? Do they need them both? Maybe. He needs to be put on the 40 this winter so a move to the roster is imminent. Miranda can be moved to the 60 day IL since he isn’t able to throw yet. Luplow can be optioned and Castro can continue rehab assignment for a while. Castro also can be optioned.

You point something very interesting the robo ump affect.  I do not know if the strike zone is any smaller than what the MLB zone should be, so it could be argued that the zone is just being called correctly.  I did not read the article you speak about.  However, it does make some sense that it means numbers are a bit inflated because those borderline pitches that robo ump calls balls, because they are balls, the MLB human umps will call strikes. 

[Mike Sixel]

We'll, this isn't happening. But at least we still have Luplow and Gallo.....

[jorgenswest]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well, this isn't happening. But at least we still have Luplow and Gallo.....

It may happen. I do believe that the front office makes moves with winning in mind. It isn’t as clear to me that Martin gives them a better chance to win than Luplow. The way Baldelli has pinch hit for Gallo against righties makes me think he believes Stevenson is going to be a better option than Gallo in CF. Let’s see what happens when Kirilloff and Castro return. We may not have have Gallo or Luplow or both after that. 

[MABB1959]

On 8/28/2023 at 6:55 AM, AlwaysinModeration said:

August slash line:  378/506/636

(For reference, Jordan Luplow August:  200/300/343)

Martin had a down year in 2022, but he OPSed 796 in 2021 in the minors and his OPS is up to 841 this year.  He walks almost as much as he strikes out (25:27 this year), and he is stealing at an 83% success rate across his minor league career.

I get that there is some complication with impending returns of Buxton and Castro, but Martin is on fire right now.  Would love to see him join Julien and Wallner as another batter with good plate discipline on the roster. 

Call him up before the calendar turns to September!

 

Looks like Buxton won’t be back.  I really am excited to see what we got for Berrios. Please don’t leave him down there and wear down.  He certainly has to be better than a few players on the roster today, if not that will be disappointing.  SWR should also make an appearance soon.  Not sure if there are anymore benefits by staying in AAA.   They need MLB experience now.