Money Might be the Real Reason the Front Office did Nothing at the Deadline

[Hans Birkeland]

The front office had conversations and could have made moves. Their explanations for not doing so don't hold water, so the only explanation I can think of is that ownership didn't approve adding payroll, just like the 2022 White Sox.

Image courtesy of David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

In my never-ending quest to grapple with unfavorable realities by saying what things are similar to other things, I took a look at the 2022 White Sox to try and figure out why this Twins team did nothing at the trade deadline and then gave us an excuse on par with a sixth grader who forgot their math homework. The White Sox were last year's Twins - they had more talent than the rest of the division, but couldn't get out of their own way, had some injuries, and generally just hovered around .500. Every winning streak became a losing streak. Every breakout performance turned into an injury. The opposition crushed every 3-2 pitch with a game on the line.

And when the deadline came around, the White Sox did nothing. It was inexplicable. They made one trade, sending their backup catcher, Reese McGuire, for struggling lefty reliever Jake Diekman. GM Rick Hahn had the following to say:

"We're disappointed that we weren't able to do more to improve this club, I think you saw a year ago at this time, you've seen it for the last several years, arguably the last couple of decades, that it's our nature to try to improve this club at any opportunity we have. Unfortunately, we weren't able to line up on some of our other potential targets."

That is probably a bit more direct than Derek Falvey's explanation for the Twins' inaction, and White Sox fans crucified Hahn's. They had five quality starters (sound familiar?), but they had a true ace in Dylan Cease, who finished runner-up for the Cy Young. They had lineup stars in Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert Jr. , Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu, Yasmani Grandal, Yoan Moncada, and a great (though expensive) bullpen. It made even less sense for that team to be .500 then for the current Twins to be .500. They needed any playable outfielder and a bullpen piece at the deadline. 

Sound familiar?

When the season concluded, it came to light that the White Sox were operating with a cap on their spending, and that was at least part of the reason for their inaction. Even with the additions of Andrew Benintendi and Mike Clevinger, they opened the 2023 season with a payroll of about $13 million less than what they ended 2022 with. Could this be a reason the Twins stood pat, as well?

In Chicago's case, they had a thin farm system and probably assumed that the Twins and Guardians would return to earth in the second half, so they could avoid adding any payroll (They were right about the Twins, at least).

The Twins are in a similar spot. Their farm system is weak but has a few impact guys floating around in Brooks Lee, Marco Raya, and Emmanuel Rodriguez. They could have cashed those guys in and gone for it, knowing they were likely to host a playoff series, but could the team have afforded/gotten ownership approval for adding on Paul Goldschmidt's salary? Juan Soto's? Even the $5 million owed to Teoscar Hernandez over the rest of the year?

We have no indications that they either could or could not, so what follows is theory, not fact. What we do have are half-baked explanations that they didn't want to remove anyone off the 26-man roster of a team with a .500 record and had a couple of sellers turn into buyers last minute. One way to divert attention from being at your spending limit is to say you don't want to give up your prospects, but they certainly had no problem offering up Cade Povich and Christian Encarnacion-Strand last year and didn't even offer that excuse this time around.

Moderately tuned-in Twins fans have tried for years to quell the masses claiming "cheap Pohlads" and "poverty franchise" at every missed free agent. While all that was true in 1999, we tried to explain that the payrolls have risen to be mid-pack. We signed Carlos Correa! We extended Pablo Lopez! There's plenty of blame to go toward the front office, but their mistakes don't have anything to do with money! It was annoying work, but someone had to do it. The team is now running into some real financial limitations, some of which are out of their control, but nonetheless could have steered the front office away from adding anyone with anything above a minimum salary the rest of the way.

First, the Diamond Sports situation could greatly impact payroll flexibility. While they agreed to pay the Twins for their 2023 contract, the team is a free agent at the end of the year. And it seems increasingly unlikely that whatever media partnership they enter into for 2024 will not be nearly as lucrative as the one they had with Bally (court documents revealed that the deal was worth $54.8 million per year)- there's a reason it was hemorrhaging money beyond just mismanagement. With streaming and general shifts in the media landscape, TV deals just don't hit like they used to ten or even five years ago. If $20 million or so gets knocked off the team's revenues for 2024, that will impact the team's payroll, one way or the other. Not to mention the team is already running a franchise record $153 million payroll after signing Correa to the biggest deal in team history.

Second, ticket sales have not been great. They are up over 2022 at roughly 24,000 per game, but that pales compared to 2019 (28,000/game) and 2013 (30,000/game). Twins president Dave St. Peter famously stated last August that he didn't understand why fans weren't coming to games, citing the likable, contending (at the time) team. Not noted by St. Peter was any awareness of the public perception of the team, which had yet to collapse at that point.

My theory is that Falvey and Levine were directed not to add to the payroll for this year. That may have to do with the team's lackluster performance, or it might have to do with a lack of future revenue. Either way, it would seem ownership told the front office to make something up about believing in their guys and not wanting to boot anyone off the roster.

I've supported most of what this front office has done, or at least could see the thinking behind their weirder decisions. But if the team is fabricating excuses for not having authorization to add a couple million to its payroll, that's dysfunctional. Adding Connor Joe and Michael Fulmer wouldn't have made this team that much more of an attraction. But don't tell me you couldn't address obvious weaknesses that wouldn't cost much in prospect capital because the market didn't shape up exactly how you anticipated or didn't want to hurt Joey Gallo's feelings. If you weren't authorized to add payroll, say that. We get that; we're Twins fans.

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[Mike Sixel]

I see no evidence of this supplied anywhere online. The easiest explanation is they didn't love the team, and didn't want to pay the cost of prospects. They seem to believe that Lewis will be back at third, and polanco can cover it until he comes back. RP is hard to predict.

All that's simple to believe is the truth. 

[Brett]

I think “we get that; we’re Twins fans” is the best line I’ve seen all year. 6 words have never said so much.

[Karbo]

IMO the FO didn't want to give up any of the top youngsters in the minors. 1 or 2 guys just wasn't enough to do much for this team. I think they are looking at a bunch of young hitters coming along in the next 1-3 years that will be the core of the lineup. The thing I just can't understand is why Gallo is still on the roster, much more starting every day.

[Captian Hook]

Happy to see they added Dallas Keuchel.

Let's see if the former Cy Young winner still has something in the tank, and if his World Series championship leadership will teach the Twins to win a playoff game or two.

[jorgenswest]

They needed a hitter. Hitters weren’t moved at the deadline. Pham was probably the best fit that actually moved. The cost was a top 50 player in this year’s international signing list. Maybe the Twins could have won the deal by sending either Hendry Chivilli or Carlos Silva but they would be pretty similar so the Mets may have preferred Rodriguez. Ariel Castro probably would have beat the offer. Should the Twins have offered Castro?

I think it is more like the front office was unwilling to trade prospects rather than the budget. Too much was asked for the hitters on the market, In this case it is very unlikely that Castro will make it to the Twins while they are still in charge. I have to appreciate that they did what they felt was best for the organization.

[JD-TWINS]

$$ via TV contract seems to be a legit concern! My general understanding is Twins are around $153M this year in payroll.

Assuming $$ are an issue:

Kepler - Polanco are both serious maybes for ‘24. Certainly, unless playoff heroes, easy to justify not picking up their contracts going forward………$20M roughly

Gallo……..$11M

Mahle - Gray……..$25M roughly

Taylor - Solano - Maeda………$12M

Close to $70M reduced from $153M…….maybe re-sign the last 3 guys for $18M total? Pick-up option (doubtful) on one of two top guys $12M.

$68M - $30M & they field a team in ‘24 that brings in a bit of youth and saves $38M over this year at a minimum. That’s 25% of payroll.

Seems we could have afforded to pick up $10M (MAX) the balance of this year & jettison guys after November if needed for helpful pieces in August/September!

[saviking]

21 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO the FO didn't want to give up any of the top youngsters in the minors. 1 or 2 guys just wasn't enough to do much for this team. I think they are looking at a bunch of young hitters coming along in the next 1-3 years that will be the core of the lineup. The thing I just can't understand is why Gallo is still on the roster, much more starting every day.

100% hope that's their plan. Yep, just found another reason the Correa move might have been a mistake. Only so many dollars to go around. Correa is a wizard in the field which helps offset his BA. In his 2 years with us the outlier in his hitting was his hot streak at the end of last season. To this date he's performed at the Plate similar both years. I sure hope he has another late season hot streak. I can understand why we signed him the first time but the second time we had already drafted Lee with Lewis as well. Okay, last time I rag on spending all that money on Carrea. Just hope he starts earning his money.

[Peter]

Twins did right thing at deadline by not making trades/giving up prospects. Especially Royce to Seattle for teo. With theilbar back. Along with kuechel and Lewis soon to be back this is just as good if not better then deadline pick ups. 

[Whitey333]

Very interesting article.  It does make you think anyway.  I can't imagine the ownership is that thrilled with this teams performance.  The big money guys have done little to nothing to help the team.  There are limits as to what ownership could or should do with payroll.  Yes they are very wealthy but smartly they run the team just like any of their businesses.  If they didn't we may not have had major league baseball here for the past 3 decades.  But of course we don't know if they put the lid on payroll or not.  After all it's a privately held business they don't have to tell us.  To me what's more intriguing is why Gallo is still even on the roster.  He should have been DFA'd weeks ago.  Also that we are likely to get nothing in return now when our free agents and option players are gone after the season.  A draft pic?  Big deal.  Only 15% of those draft pics ever make it.  What I find even more interesting is that they may not like the looks of, or believe in, this team.  Totally under a Randalls.  Many of us Twins fans feel the same way.  But remember thud.  The FO only has itself to blame.  They put this team together.

[USAFChief]

It's a very plausible theory. 

I don't believe the front office thought they didn't need help. At least I hope they are smarter than that.

So why didn't they get some? Costs weren't outrageous for the players moved.

 

[mikelink45]

I was happy keeping prospects - Steer and Encarcion would have been good on the team this year, But the issue of spending money is not in my area of knowledge.  I just know that we could have done better spending Gallo money on RP. 

No comment on Correa money, everyone loved it at the time.

Our recent addition does not seem any better than putting Garlick back on the roster or giving Stevenson or Contrares a real opportunity.  

I enjoyed your rant whether it is accurate or not. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I see no evidence of this supplied anywhere online. The easiest explanation is they didn't love the team, and didn't want to pay the cost of prospects. They seem to believe that Lewis will be back at third, and polanco can cover it until he comes back. RP is hard to predict.

All that's simple to believe is the truth. 

You look at this team and don't see obvious areas needing help?

Yeah, me neither.

So why didn't they get some?

 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

You look at this team and don't see obvious areas needing help?

Yeah, me neither.

So why didn't they get some?

 

I don't see data that the reason they didn't add is money. That's what the article was about. 

[Blyleven2011]

We'll never know the real story ,that's just the way the FO operates ...

Never a truthful statement to the fans  , always leave them guessing  ...

If the Twins are like the 2022 white Sox  that didn't upgrade at the deadline  , than maybe we should definitely expect twiins payroll to be less next year ...

And St Peter's statement last year , wondering why attendence is down  , is he lost in the world of delusion  ...

I'd love to sit in on discussions and see how they operate , if it's like our government officials ( and i have sat in on those discussions ) then we are in for years of Hurt   ...

[tony&rodney]

Unless attendance and viewership is up quite a bit from now until the end of the year or the Twins manage an extended run in the playoffs, there are going to be financial consequences to follow like a reduced payroll in 2024.

Money is still important in business. The Twins committed to a record (for them) payroll in 2023 and it is reasonable to expect a return on that investment. I do not think the 2024 expenditures will be anywhere near the costs of 2023. 

[by jiminy]

I suspect the asking prices were just too high. If I had to give up someone like Lee or Balazovic or Rodriguez to get an average OF or reliever I would pass too.

[gman]

I considered the direction of this article before and almost responded like wise to other current articles on not acquiring relief pitchers. If they have over stretched the available budget for this year and the financing for TV revenue is falling then how does that impact this winters free agent spending and the International free agent market. The list of players let go  was listed above. It would have been easier as a front office to sign a couple of players and look like they were doing something then to shrug their shoulders and go oh well. But if the only option was to make trades that cut payroll, who were they going to get?

Floro and Luplow plus whatever Keuchel had already agreed to. Unfortunately not enough minor league pitchers were pitching well enough to warrant promotions, although I expect that many were hoping  several to step up.

I suspect besides the year they are having, that come next winter the Twins would never even have tried to sign Correa or Buxton.

Just imagine the team next winter if they cannot add payroll from where they are now.

 

[Guest]

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make.  I didn't think any of the rumored rental proposals held value over their cost.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't see data that the reason they didn't add is money. That's what the article was about. 

I know what the article was about...a possible, and quite plausible IMO, reason for no deadline additions.

What data would there be supporting or refuting this speculation? Would you expect to see Falvey say "Yeah, we're tapped out. No more dinero."?

Because as we both believe, there's holes in the roster. So why zero attempt to fix any of them? 

 

 

[Minny505]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I see no evidence of this supplied anywhere online. The easiest explanation is they didn't love the team, and didn't want to pay the cost of prospects. They seem to believe that Lewis will be back at third, and polanco can cover it until he comes back. RP is hard to predict.

All that's simple to believe is the truth. 

I do think this is likely and not in a "cheap Polads" sort of way. Revenues are coming in below projection and I wouldn't be surprised if the team is actually close to break even this season with next season looking like a loss at the moment.

The "cost of prospects" argument is impossible to believe. Trading away Travis Adams or Francis Peguero for a RP and RHH COF on expiring contracts to plug holes could hardly be construed as a "cost of prospects". Even dealing Larnach for Lane Thomas would be acceptable...except for that pesky arb raise that comes with him for 2024.

And even if you don't love this team, trading away minor league filler lottery tickets for useful players on the market is worth the effort.

[Hans Birkeland]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I see no evidence of this supplied anywhere online. The easiest explanation is they didn't love the team, and didn't want to pay the cost of prospects. They seem to believe that Lewis will be back at third, and polanco can cover it until he comes back. RP is hard to predict.

All that's simple to believe is the truth. 

Revenues down, team-record payroll, unwilling to trade low level prospects for obvious needs. No explanation. That's pretty simple.

[Hans Birkeland]

41 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Sometimes the best moves are the ones you don't make.  I didn't think any of the rumored rental proposals held value over their cost.

I don't think the team's future would be compromised if we traded away Cody Lawyerson and Jose Rodriguez.

Edited August 5, 2023 by Hans Birkeland

[Hans Birkeland]

53 minutes ago, gman said:

I considered the direction of this article before and almost responded like wise to other current articles on not acquiring relief pitchers. If they have over stretched the available budget for this year and the financing for TV revenue is falling then how does that impact this winters free agent spending and the International free agent market. The list of players let go  was listed above. It would have been easier as a front office to sign a couple of players and look like they were doing something then to shrug their shoulders and go oh well. But if the only option was to make trades that cut payroll, who were they going to get?

Floro and Luplow plus whatever Keuchel had already agreed to. Unfortunately not enough minor league pitchers were pitching well enough to warrant promotions, although I expect that many were hoping  several to step up.

I suspect besides the year they are having, that come next winter the Twins would never even have tried to sign Correa or Buxton.

Just imagine the team next winter if they cannot add payroll from where they are now.

 

The top of the Twins' system is rich in position players. And if we don't pick up options on Polanco and Kepler, let Gray, Maeda, Gallo, Farmer and Solano walk there will be some money to spend but I wouldn't be surprised if our payroll drops to 130M or so.

[Minny505]

1 hour ago, by jiminy said:

I suspect the asking prices were just too high. If I had to give up someone like Lee or Balazovic or Rodriguez to get an average OF or reliever I would pass too.

Agreed, but seeing what players like Scott Barlow, Kenyon Middleton, Tommy Pham, Garrett Cooper, and so many other players in the range of what the Twins could use to sufficiently plug holes, the team never would have had to give up the players like the one you list.

Prospects like Cory Lewis, Ricardo Olivar, or maybe Danny De Andrade, would have gotten it done. That's hardly too high.

[David Maro]

Polhad's said no,play with the team you have. Adding a RH bat will not change anything. This team would still have the same problem. They are averaging 10 strike outs a game. Polhad's are watching the 33.5 million dollar boy hit just above .200 and 15+million dollar boy on IL again,who is also hitting about .200. We all know and have seen the overall problem can't score,because swinging for the fences. Starting to see it now with Julien and Wallner. How about last night,takes MAT late inning homerun to win. Had bases loaded twice and guess what Strike Out. Gallo and Popkins should of been shown the door weeks ago. I know the only thing that gets the fans attention is a homerun,that's not baseball. Put the ball in play is,making the other team make the play.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Hans Birkeland said:

I don't think the team's future would be compromised if we traded away Cody Lawyerson and Jose Rodriguez.

I look at Tyler Wells, Yennier Cano and Spencer Steer and note that MLB doesn't give you mulligans.

When your closest division pursuer, Cleveland, is doing it's best to shoot themselves in the foot at the trade deadline, undeniably not buying, and when the overall trade deadline market clearly has more buyers than sellers, why jump into that pool?  If fifty people chant, "let's jump off a cliff together," one should still pause and ask about risk/reward.

[Guest]

54 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Agreed, but seeing what players like Scott Barlow, Kenyon Middleton, Tommy Pham, Garrett Cooper, and so many other players in the range of what the Twins could use to sufficiently plug holes, the team never would have had to give up the players like the one you list.

Prospects like Cory Lewis, Ricardo Olivar, or maybe Danny De Andrade, would have gotten it done. That's hardly too high.

I likely would've said the same thing about Tyler Wells, Yennier Cano and Spencer Steer.  But, not now....

[Heiny]

I'm not seeing a problem with payroll for next year.  If you lose Gallo, Kepler, Polanco after this year, and I believe that will happen and that is my hope, you're looking at about 30M drop.  My crystal ball shows and infield of Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, and Lewis/Lee.  If it is Lee at 3b then Lewis in LF, hopefully Buxton in Center and Wallner/Larnach in RF.  Re-sign Taylor for Buxton insurance.  I can see us keeping Castro on the cheap.  Vasquez and Jeffers are C's.  Now you are short just one position player.  Seems fairly reasonable financially considering the two highest paid among this group have no-trade contracts.  I would offer Gray the QO with Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack/possibly Keuchel with Winder, Varland, Mahle, Richardson for depth.  Still seems financially reasonable.  Bullpen?  Good grief!  Who knows.  But with all that being said, back to the point. With our shot at winning the division this year and anything possible in the playoffs,  I can't see any reason whatsoever to hold back a few million more dollars to upgrade this years team.  In my opinion, it had to be the asking price for our prospects.  And with a dwindling minor league system already,  "IF that is the case,  I would agree with it.  But, with the info the fans are privy to, all any of us can do is speculate.  Kinda leaves a little bit of an empty feeling.  I actually think the future looks pretty bright with what I think were two very good drafts the last two years so the FO gets at least another year for me.  But I would move on from Rocco.  How bout we give Toby a shot for a few years.

[LA Vikes Fan]

While not adding payroll may have played a part, I think the main reason they didn't add is that the team isn't very good and they no longer have a surplus of prospects to trade. Adding a Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, or 32 plus year old reliever doesn''t get us to contention this year. Even more importantly, the team is being transitioned from the current core vets to a new younger group. You don't trade prospects when you do that.  You need those prospects either to be in the first wave or to be in the second wave if the first wave fails. 

Think about it this way -what current vets on the 26 man will be here next year and in 2025 and why? I define vets as MLB 3 full years or more by end of 2023. Likely  to be Correa, Vasquez (contract), Buxton, Lopez, and . . . Maaaaybe Polanco , maaaybe Kepler but most likely not, possibly Pagan and Theilbar if he lasts that long. All the rest will be gone. By mid-next year or at least 2025 one would expect the primary IF to be a combo of Correa, Julien, Kirilloff, Lewis, Polanco and Lee with maybe Farmer as a UTL if one of those 6 is hurt or Lee isn't ready and Castro is in the OF. The OF is Buxton, Wallner, Kepler for maybe one more year, Larnach and Castro(?), maybe Gordon(?).  We need OFs starting next year, can't trade any we now have. 

The pitching staff is Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varaland, and SWR (or Maeda for 2024), with Duran, Jax, Balazovic, Pagan, Moran, Thielbar or Floro and young guys or FA retreads filling out the bullpen. Jeffers and Vasquez are the catchers. 

So who you going to trade for a Pham, Hernandez, or RP? Not Larnach, Lee, Castro, Lewis, Balazovic, Varland, SWR, etc. And you can't trade the next wave guys like Festa, Raya, Camargo, Severino, Williams, Miranda, Oliver, DeAndrade, etc. because then you have no Plan B if a part of that first wave fails.

Bottom line to me is threefold, (1) the current team can win the division with what they have, (2) the current team is very unlikely to do better than win one playoff series even with a couple of rentals, and 3) we got nobody to trade that we won't need in the next 2 years and probably don't even have enough guys for our own needs. Was money an issue? Probably. I think the talent level on the team and in the organization is the bigger issue.