3 Bold Predictions for the 2023 Twins Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

MLB’s trade deadline can be a fast and furious 48-hour period. Some teams have already started making moves, so here are three bold predictions about what the Twins will do before the deadline.

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins made a minor trade over the last week by dealing Jorge Lopez to the Marlins for Dylan Floro. Lopez was one of the front office’s key acquisitions at last year’s deadline, but he struggled with the Twins. For both relievers, it is a chance to reestablish themselves with a new club. One reliever-for-reliever swap hardly moves the needle for the Twins, so here are three bold predictions that have a chance to play out in the coming days. 

The Twins Trade One Young Left-Handed Bat
Rumors have swirled that teams have contacted the Twins about their plethora of big-league caliber left-handed bats, and there are a few directions the club can go regarding a trade. Veterans Joey Gallo and Max Kepler have been regulars in the Twins line-up, but their offensive performance has been up and down throughout the season. Minnesota has overvalued Kepler in recent seasons, so I expect the team to look in a different direction. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach have seen sporadic playing time at the big-league level in recent seasons, and both would likely bring back more on the trade market compared to the veteran lefty bats. Trading one of the younger bats might allow the Twins to acquire a player that can help the Twins for multiple seasons instead of dealing with a rental player.

The Twins Acquire Josh Hader
Minnesota’s front office has mentioned the club is searching for bullpen help, which is a need for every contending club. Hader was dealt at last year’s deadline to the Padres and struggled with a 7.31 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP in 19 appearances after the trade. He’s returned to form this season in Southern California. In 38 innings, he has posted a 0.95 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and a 58-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hader is one of baseball’s best relievers, and the Padres are on the borderline between being buyers and sellers. Acquiring him from San Diego will take a lot, even though he is a two-month rental. FanGraphs predicted the Twins would need to surrender two young pitchers, Marco Raya and Brent Headrick. Is that too steep of a cost?

The Twins Trade a Starting Pitcher
Minnesota’s starting rotation has carried the team for much of the 2023 season, and other teams have contacted the Twins about some of their starting pitching options. According to the Athletic, the Twins initially considered trading Kenta Maeda to make room for Dallas Keuchel in the rotation. Maeda has been the team’s best starter since the All-Star Break, so their plans have likely shifted to keeping him. Keuchel bypassed his first opt-out with the Twins and has a second opt-out on the same day as the trade deadline. He has a 0.69 ERA in five Triple-A starts with 20 strikeouts and 11 walks. Minnesota could deal either pitcher before the deadline. 

There has also been plenty of talk about the Twins trading Sonny Gray, but that seems like it would take quite the offer from another contending team. Gray was one of the AL’s best starters in the first half, and the team has a chance to get draft pick compensation through the qualifying offer system if Gray leaves via free agency. The Twins will need Gray in October if they want to end their playoff losing streak, so it seems unlikely for him to be traded in the coming days.  

Which bold predictions will come true? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[Hheimer]

 

1. Instead of trading a young bat, should the twins just release Gallo? 

 

2. I see the twins getting another bullpen arm. But not someone like Hadar that will cost us two pitching prospects. 

3. You need starting pitching to win  playoff games. We finally have it. Why give it up? 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

IF they do all of these, as you mentioned. And IF the return for Gray is strong; then I do think it would be a positive trade deadline. Could be exciting, right?

[chpettit19]

Yes to trading any of the lefty OF bats.

No to Raya for Hader. *Unless you're actually going to extend Hader before the end of the season.

No to clearing way for Keuchel. I don't care if Keuchel has a 0.00 ERA in AAA, he's not worth doing anything to clear a spot for. Trade him if you can get a rookie ball flier for him.

Definitely a no to trading Raya for Hader and turning around and putting Keuchel in the rotation. If you're going to go all in on pitching (which trading Raya for Hader is doing) you don't give Dallas Keuchel a spot in your rotation because of a handful of AAA starts. If you get Hader you hope for a healthy rotation in the playoffs that allows you to move 1 of the 5 guys to the pen and you try to pitch your way as deep as you can with Hader and Duran shutting down the end of every game and starter X, Jax, Thielbar, Floro, and Stewart matching up to dominate the 6th and 7th as needed.

[Mike Sixel]

Raya for Hader? Yikes. Triple yikes. 

[CRF]

Hader is still pretty filthy, and I sure wouldn't mind him here...but not for Raya in the deal. 

[Dman]

I guess I am not sure why we are in such a hurry to trade Matt Wallner.  He had a top 5 OPS in AA last year at 1.033 and at AAA this year his OPS is .927 and currently at the MLB level granted a SSS he has a .988 OPS.  Most of those numbers are better than what Jullien put up.  So what exactly are we going to get back that is better than that?

I get he has some K rate issues as he hovers around the 30% mark but his walk rate is around 10% as well which offsets some of that.  He has an unsustainable BABIP at AAA right now at just under .400 so there are some warts in the profile but this is two years in a row with elite OPS production in the two top leagues in the minors so I guess I don't understand why you wouldn't give a bat like that a chance at the MLB level before trading him for a withered old veteran for a team barely over .500.

His defense at least what I have seen at target field is far from élite but he tracks down most balls and his arm makes up for some of the range issues.  He is no Rooker out there.  

If they want to trade a Lefty outfielder trade Gallo, Gordon, Kepler, Larnach likely in that order as I think Wallner has more potential than all of them.

While I would like to get something for Maeda before he leaves given the Twins are only 1 and half games up and he has a relatively fresh arm and has pitched about as well as the other four guys it seems like they might need him down the stretch to keep Cleveland at bay.  If they think Kuechel can hold that 5th spot without too much damage and they think Varland and Headrick could fill in a pinch I guess I could see them trading Maeda but it better be a nice return and it should be young pitching IMO.  Might be playing with fire there but this team has so many flaws maybe in the end it doesn't really matter.,

[Vanimal46]

The Hader situation is nearly identical to ours with Sonny Gray. A team trading for him will need to make the return more valuable than a QO draft pick. 

So, as we’ve reasoned in other Gray trade discussions, a draft pick in the 40 ish overall range is like a borderline top 100 prospect. I don’t think 20-25 innings from Hader is worth someone like Raya or Emmanuel Rodriguez. 

[TwinsDr2021]

18 minutes ago, Dman said:

I guess I am not sure why we are in such a hurry to trade Matt Wallner. 

If they want to trade a Lefty outfielder trade Gallo, Gordon, Kepler, Larnach likely in that order as I think Wallner has more potential than all of them.

 

I don't really think it is a hurry to trade Wallner, I think it is more the reality of the situation, the Twins couldn't find a way to get him on the roster this year until there were multiple injuries and when everybody is healthy he is likely to go back down. (That wouldn't be my choice, but it seems like the most likely thing to happen)

Very few teams go into a season that they are expecting to complete for a division title and more with a 26 year old unproven starting player (that is what young highly rated prospects are for), so it is likely he will again start next year in the minors.

They are likely to go into next year with three players in a similar situation as Miranda was this year (Julien, AK and Lewis), 4 or 5 if you think Larnach or Miranda should be a starter. I don't think this or any FO would feel comfortable with that situation plus Wallner, and maybe Lee soon behind that is more like what a rebuilding team would do. With no changes next years starters

C - Jeffers/Vazquez, 1B - AK, 2B - Polanco, SS- Correa, 3B - Lewis, LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Kepler, DH- Julien, that leaves Wallner and Miranda on the outside or bench. So it seems best to trade Larnach or Wallner.

As far a your trading order, IMO

Gallo returns nothing

Gordon next to nothing

Kepler very little

Larnach something decent

Wallner more than something decent.

[LewFordLives]

No way should the Twins be dealing a starter. The starting rotation is the only thing that has worked so far this year and is the reason they are in first place. No disrespect to Keuchel, but he has not had any sustained MLB success in three years. I'm fine with keeping him around for depth/injuries, but to replace Maeda??? ......seriously?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Between Maeda and Gray, I have always thought that Maeda was an extension candidate.  Yes, he is older, but I think he fits into the Twins 3 year plan pretty well.  When healthy, he has been successful and he has shown enough flexibility to do what ever the Twins ask of him.  He would also be relatively inexpensive and a known product.  

I think the chances of Keuchel being on the big leaguer roster before the deadline are pretty high.  If there wasn't a visible path to the roster, he would have opted out at the first time.

[Hannytwinsguy]

Why get rid of the young OF’s they’ve developed? Trade Kepler and Gallo for what you can get.  

Please don’t give up possible future starters for a rental that may or may not help get past the first round.

 See what you can do this year by playing some of the young guys in the playoffs so that when actually do have a chance to get to the WS they have playoff experience.

if you build it, they will come.

[USAFChief]

Sign me up for Raya for Hader.

Easily.

But San Diego will get better if they trade him

 

[JD-TWINS]

Padres need LH hitting this year, if they are deluded, & going forward in ‘24 …….they have nobody on left side, except Soto, hitting over .200.

They have a solid Staff! Forget about Hader and get a controllable piece that may be their 3rd or 4th guy in Pen……we need solid depth!

Larnach & Polanco & should be a slam dunk.

Polanco has basically not been on the team this year - Larnach is still undeveloped potential. If either works out San Diego is happy.

Opens a roster spot going forward.

Btw, Gallo has no trade value. We are trying to move people around so we can get to “roster expansion” and carry everyone through September. They don’t want to DFA Gallo and then need him 10 days later……….with some option/IL creativity through August we can bring him to end of September and then drop him from roster.

Right now Kirilloff can’t play with a finger up shoulder. Gallo is a stellar 1B! Great guy to have around until we have zero room for him.

[Richard]

4 hours ago, Hheimer said:

 

1. Instead of trading a young bat, should the twins just release Gallo? 

 

2. I see the twins getting another bullpen arm. But not someone like Hadar that will cost us two pitching prospects. 

3. You need starting pitching to win  playoff games. We finally have it. Why give it up? 

 

You only really need three or four arms for the post season.  The Braves ran off the backs of three starters in 2021, the Rays used four primary in 2020, and the Astros only used four in 2019.  If we can stick with our top four rotation guys and give away Kenta for a significant right handed bat I would take that any day.  

[Richard]

2 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

No way should the Twins be dealing a starter. The starting rotation is the only thing that has worked so far this year and is the reason they are in first place. No disrespect to Keuchel, but he has not had any sustained MLB success in three years. I'm fine with keeping him around for depth/injuries, but to replace Maeda??? ......seriously?

Would you trade Maeda for an impact bat? 

[LewFordLives]

13 minutes ago, Richard said:

Would you trade Maeda for an impact bat? 

No. Decent pitching is more valuable than hitting. Especially in the playoffs.

[Richard]

The Twins already have 3, maybe 4, rotation guys they can trust in a playoff game.  That's all you really need for the playoffs.  Wouldn't we be better suited to flip him for a bullpen piece and a bat?  I understand the importance of pitching but a five man rotation isn't necessary in the playoffs.  We'll just be stuck in the same situation we are now and you need to score more than 2-3 runs in the playoffs.

[Richard]

7 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

No. Decent pitching is more valuable than hitting. Especially in the playoffs.

The Twins already have 3, maybe 4, rotation guys they can trust in a playoff game.  That's all you really need for the playoffs.  Wouldn't we be better suited to flip him for a bullpen piece and a bat?  I understand the importance of pitching but a five man rotation isn't necessary in the playoffs.  We'll just be stuck in the same situation we are now and you need to score more than 2-3 runs in the playoffs.

[Kummel]

These sound like trades for the sake of trading.  The offense has picked up, thanks largely to the young players.  Why trade Wallner --  he is the offense you are looking for.  Why lose a young hitter with power and with years of team control?   This time, don't give away the farm.

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

None of these trades do anything for me. I'm not giving up a 20 year old throwing darts at AA for 2 months of Hader. Especially when we have two pretty solid bullpen arms about to return. Id be looking to move Kepler or Polanco, or both. Maeda or Gray, preferably Gray because I believe we could easily bring Kenta back. I'm not trading Wallner or Larnach unless I'm BLOWN away. Not because I think they are studs, but Gallo and Max and Gordon probably all aren't back next season, so if we trade either of those guys now we have quality depth issues in the OF.

Polanco to me needs to go simply because we'll get good value, and Brooks Lee is coming. He is gonna be ready very soon, that bat is dirty. He is young, and fits perfectly with the core we're gonna be competing with the next ten years. And Buxton needs to either be back in CF or do something with him this offseason. His bat stinks. He is made of glass. Most of his value has always come from his insane speed and defensive chops, neither of which are a factor anymore. He is closing in on 30. Everything is trending way down for him.

[JDubs]

7 hours ago, Hheimer said:

1. Instead of trading a young bat, should the twins just release Gallo? 

[PatPfund]

Agreed that Gallo brings back nothing. Which is pretty much what he adds to our lineup for the past month (a few HR, some walks, and strikeouts in essentially half his non-walk ABs).

Wallner and Larnach might be trade bait, but hopefully not (or hopefully at most one) since I don't see Kepler or Gallo with this team next season. And I also suspect we've seen the last of Byron playing a lot of OF in any season. 

Maybe they'll surprise me, but I think the FO mostly likes what we have, they saw Cleveland stand pat last year and succeed, and they saw their own big moves blow up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of Fulmer-like small trades, and nothing else. (And I'd definitely like to either see them trade Keuchel, or call him up for a start this weekend to boost his stock.) 

[Hheimer]

2 hours ago, Richard said:

You only really need three or four arms for the post season.  The Braves ran off the backs of three starters in 2021, the Rays used four primary in 2020, and the Astros only used four in 2019.  If we can stick with our top four rotation guys and give away Kenta for a significant right handed bat I would take that any day.  

I agree you only have three or four man rotations in the playoffs. It's hard to predict whose still reliable or healthy by the end of September. 

Back in 2019 the offense was playing well it was the pitching that doomed us. Starting pitching is the biggest factor who advances in the playoffs 

[IndianaTwin]

I don’t see them trading either Gray or Maeda. Contending teams aren’t going to mess with the mojo in their rotation. That’s a perfect way to alienate the clubhouse. Doing nothing is better than trading one of them.

Joe Ryan has given up 16 runs in his last 19.1 innings over four starts. To resolve the Keuchel situation. I’m tempted to go with an IL stint for Ryan if there’s any sense of tired arm. If not, I’d still skip a start and give Ryan an intentional stint or two out of the pen.

[DocBauer]

Trade Gallo, if you can, for a lower level prospect. But unless there is a GM out there that is just desperate for a veteran LH bat who thinks Gallo can get hot for a couple of months...he's a DFA. And he should have been a month ago to allow Wallner or Larnach to get AB.

Sorry, not entirely proven yet, but NO WAY I'd trade Wallner unless blown away by the return!

Circling back to Nick's OP, Larnach and Kepler should be on the block. I love that Kepler has been hot since the break, and love his defense. But I don't trust that he is suddenly "new and improved". And I just can't trust a massive 2+ year downturn in production. And maybe I'm wrong. But I'd rather give Larnach the shot and move Kepler. But I'm kinda 50/50 here. Kepler actuality  maybe, turning a corner and back for $10M next year vs keeping Larnach and seeing what we might have? I remain on the trading Kepler bandwagon.

Sorry, but we want to trade a couple top prospects for a rental of Hader? Including Raya? Sorry, but I'm OUT. He's a rental looking for a big payday. The pen is not bad at all with what we have, and a return of Stewart and Thielbar and our recent addition of Floro makes this pen pretty damn good. But I'm 100% on trading some lower level talent to add at least one, if not two arms. Just a couple of years ago we added Romo for next to nothing. And he was a difference maker. Why not go this way again and add rentals who might even be re-sign options?

The rotation has been the strength of the team all year. Forget the playoffs, we still have 2 months of the season to actually capture the ALC banner. But we want to maybe trade away the largest strength of the team for what reason? Because we might not need 5 SP in the playoffs? Well gee, wouldn't it be great to have so many arms available we'd have to move someone to the pen for the playoffs?

I get Gray isn't a STUD #1 who goes 7+. But he's still damn good for 5 usually. And for those who haven't paid attention, after additional rest and recovery, Maeda at 35yo, coming off TJ, is looking every bit like the solid SP he has been, and much like his 2020 Cy Young runner up year.

What is the obsession with Keuchel? He's somehow a staff savior with a good ERA, but mediocre numbers against AAA batters? I love the idea that he might embrace a role in the pen at this point in his career. But promote him and trade away one of our current starting 5? PLEASE! 

I'd rather trust Varland...young and potential filled with solid early results...than Keuchel. Further, I want the QO offer draft pick if and when Gray says no. And I'm still not opposed to a re-sign, if it makes sense. But I just don't see it happening. 

But even at 35yo, coming off TJ, and needing some more time to "get right"  this season, tell me right now you wouldn't re-sign Maeda for $14M next year? I would in a heartbeat. Unless he implodes suddenly, I'd trust his experience and amazing "pitching" IQ as much as I'd trust an extension of Gray.

But nope, we should trade a SP from the best and deepest rotation we've had in years. No way.

 

[tony&rodney]

Too many strike outs. We need more bat to ball in the right situations. The team K totals are a downer.

[Karbo]

The best bet for the Twins IMO would be to trade out Gallo for for Stevenson or Larnach. haven't had much of a chance to watch the Saints this year but Stevenson seems to stand out in box scores. Gallo was a big mistake and its time the FO admits it and moves on. 

[TL]

Kepler has gotten hot and plays a great RF - need to ride that out and see if he can keep it up through year-end (but don't get fooled into thinking he can repeat it in 24).

Gallo seems like insurance in case of trades at this point. If we don't trade 1 or even 2 LF bats then he has to be released to make room after the deadline. Maybe even if we do make those trades.

The trade I'd like to see them consider is one that will sting but could pay dividends if the price is right- Kirilloff for right-handed bat CFer + RP + top 50 MLB Prospect. Kirilloff should return a big haul and that trade could plug some gaps now and net a top prospect.

For '24 it opens a spot for Julien (1B) without requiring Lewis to switch to CF.

For '23 Polanco can move to 1B when Lewis returns to give Julien an off-season to prepare. And you'd be betting Wallner can approximately replace Kirilloff's bat and the new CFer being a big upgrade over Taylor + getting a high leverage RP for remainder of this season at least. 

[Kenny Powers]

Guys I'd be fine trading:

1.)  Polonco.  People will counter with "we'd be selling low".  But we don't know that.  He could keep getting hurt/worse.  Julien has earned the 2nd base job.  Moving Polonco to 3rd at age just blocks Lewis again.  Polonco is still a good player (when healthy).  Some team would certainly be happy to add a vet like that for the stretch run (assuming they don't have the depth we do at 2nd base).

2.)  Kepler.  People will counter "he's just starting to hit".  But this is his 9th season.  He's had exactly ONE season with an OPS over .800.  And that was back in 2019.  Is .743 career OPS good enough for a corner OF?  Adequate perhaps (with good defense).  But Gallo is also in his 9th season and has put up over .800 OPS four times including as recently as 2021.  I'm not advocating for either guy as our starter.  My point is we won't miss Max because Gallo could give us the same or better if Wallner/Larnach fail.  But I'd want to the young guys to get their shot.  Gallo could also be a PH weapon.

People will say "we won't get much for those guys".  That's true - by themselves.  But what about other benefits?  

The immediate benefit would be opening roster spots for younger guys who are out performing the vets.  

Julien OPS = .930.

Polonco OPS ..747

 

Wallner OPS = .906

Gallo OPS = .743

Kepler OPS = .721

Larnach OPS = .715

Wallner doesn't have a lot of ABs.  But Gallo/Kepler/Larnach all look about the same to me.  We won't miss Kepler.

 

Also, there are always fringe prospects that they won't protect from Rule 5 that could be added to any deals to sweeten the pot/return.  That opens up more roster spots for guys they like better.  

So any return we get from those guys would just be whipped cream on top of the cake IMO.