Mariners 8, Twins 7: Ryan Struggles, Bats Rally, but It’s Not Enough

[Thiéres Rabelo]

In one of the most exciting games of the season, the Twins and the Mariners combined for 15 runs on 22 hits, with Minnesota cutting a five-run deficit down to one. But ultimately, Seattle’s bullpen held on tight, and the M’s take home the series win.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

 

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K (95 pitches, 63 strikes, 66.3%)
Home Runs: Christian Vázquez (3), Édouard Julien (10), Matt Wallner 2 (4)
Bottom 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (-.305), Max Kepler (-.207), Jordan Balazovic (-.190)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Ryan gives up two homers, three runs early
When Twins and Mariners met for the first time last week, All-Star centerfielder Julio Rodríguez didn’t cause Minnesota much trouble, going 1-for-10 with five strikeouts and only a walk to show for against Twins’ pitching. In this second encounter between the two teams, though, he has been a real thorn in the Twins’ side.

After picking up three hits in the first two games of the series, including two home runs that powered the M’s comeback on Tuesday, he was at it again right out of the gate this afternoon. He got ahead on the count against Joe Ryan in the game’s first at-bat and ended up hitting a leadoff double after six pitches. Teoscar Hernández pushed Rodríguez across on a one-out bloop single giving Seattle their first lead of the day.

The Twins’ offense struggled to get anything going against Mariners’ starter Bryce Miller to start this game, allowing Seattle to add on and increase their lead. Ryan quickly retired the first two batters he faced in the second, then was one strike away from retiring Dylan Moore, but the struggling shortstop took him deep for the second home run of the game. Back to the top of the Seattle order in the third, Rodríguez picked up where he left off and crushed a no-doubter to the second deck in left field, making it 3-0 Mariners.

Ryan is in trouble again, but the offense hits three homers
The bats finally got into the game during the third, and they also punished Miller with the long ball. Christian Vázquez jumped on the very first pitch of his at-bat to hit a one-out solo shot to center-left and put the Twins on the board. A couple of at-bats later, it was Édouard Julien’s turn to take Miller deep. Exactly like Vázquez, Eddy jumped on the first pitch he saw, hitting a line drive that cleared the left field track by a few feet. Suddenly, the Twins cut their deficit to only one run.

But it simply wasn’t Ryan’s day, as Seattle batters seem to have him absolutely figured out. The Mariners swung on only 34% of his pitches outside the zone in this game, while Ryan has been getting hitters to swing at his outside pitches almost 40% of the time this season. With that, it didn’t take long for Seattle to get him in trouble again. Ryan loaded the bases before recording an out in the fourth inning, then gave up a single to Kolten Wong that scored the Mariners’ fourth run.

Ryan managed to strike out the next two batters, but with his pitch count nearing a hundred, Rocco Baldelli decided to bring Jordan Balazovic into the game, making this Ryan’s second-shortest outing of the season. Balazovic got Hernández to fly out, avoiding any further damage. In the bottom of the inning, Matt Wallner hit his first home run of the afternoon, and once again, the Twins were within a run, trailing 4-3.

Mariners explode to build a five-run lead, but the Twins answer back
Balazovic remained in the game for the fifth, and with 14 pitches, he had retired two batters and allowed a walk. He failed to retire Cade Marlowe next, instead giving up an eight-pitch walk, which would cost him highly on the next at-bat. Moore, who before this game had homered only twice all year, hit his second home run of the day, a 429-feet bomb to left-center, making it 7-3 Mariners.

Rodríguez led off the sixth inning with another double, this time against Josh Winder, and he scored on the next at-bat after Eugenio Suárez smashed a long single off the right-center field wall. Seattle had its biggest lead of the afternoon, heading into the bottom of the sixth. For many teams, an 8-3 deficit this late would be too much to overcome. But this Twins team simply refuses to quit as of late.

Minnesota’s offense rallied for four runs in the sixth and cut the Mariners’ lead to only one run once again. Wallner kicked things off with his second solo home run of the game, a rare opposite-field monster shot by a lefty that landed in the second deck. Willi Castro flied out to put Miller within an out of finishing the inning, but Trevor Larnach doubled and scored next on a Kyle Farmer single to shallow center, making it 8-5 Mariners and immediately ending Miller’s day.

Reliever Matt Brash took over, but he wasn’t able to stop the two-out bleeding. Joey Gallo hit a long fly ball to deep right, and Rodríguez couldn’t make the play, allowing Farmer to score and Gallo to reach second. Then, Vázquez, Minnesota’s seventh player to bat in the inning, joined the party and grounded to right to bring Gallo home and close the gap even more, cutting Seattle’s lead to 8-7.

Winder preserves the one-run deficit, but the rally falls short
Winder gave up two hits and a run in the sixth, but he did a fantastic job the rest of the way. He retired all the remaining batters faced (11 in a row) without allowing a single hit or walk while striking out four and throwing 75% strikes. But the offense went down in order in the seventh and stranded its only runner in the eighth. Minnesota would need their offense to step up once more to complete their rally in the bottom of the ninth. Things started off well, with Vázquez finding a gap in the middle for a leadoff groundball single. But reliever Andrés Muñoz managed to induce three groundball outs next, and the Mariners prevailed in the end.

Postgame interview

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Balazovic	7	0	12	0	32	51
Jax	16	8	19	0	0	43
Durán	21	16	0	0	0	37
Winder	0	0	0	0	36	36
Pagán	0	11	0	19	0	30
J. López	0	9	12	0	0	21
Morán	0	0	5	14	0	19
Sands	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[purplesoldier4u]

The Twins could not afford to throw these past two games away, but, as usual, they did. Is anybody else concerned that Ryan is so inconsistent?

[MABB1959]

3 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

The Twins could not afford to throw these past two games away, but, as usual, they did. Is anybody else concerned that Ryan is so inconsistent?

This series IMO was a must win.   If they don’t sweep KC I think the season is over. 

[Markdumont25]

 

19 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

This series IMO was a must win.   If they don’t sweep KC I think the season is over

That's a pretty aggressive prediction...

Even though we lost the series its encouraging to see the bats coming around. If the rest of the lineup continues as it has been the last few weeks then the only thing really holding us back from being a pretty scary lineup is our two supposed Superstars... If Buck and Correa can get it going (which is admittedly a big if at this point) we could be a legit good lineup.

[MABB1959]

8 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

 

That's a pretty aggressive prediction...

Even though we lost the series its encouraging to see the bats coming around. If the rest of the lineup continues as it has been the last few weeks then the only thing really holding us back from being a pretty scary lineup is our two supposed Superstars... If Buck and Correa can get it going (which is admittedly a big if at this point) we could be a legit good lineup.

Bats against bad teams?   I don’t know.  

[Mike Sixel]

Showing Wallner should have stayed up... How many more wins with Wallner instead of Gallo the last month?

[Chthulu]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Showing Wallner should have stayed up... How many more wins with Wallner instead of Gallo the last month?

I posted this in the Twins subreddit but I'll post it here.

Joey Gallo in 79 GP/ 260 PA - .2 bWar

Matt Wallner in 20 GP/ 58 PA - .8 bWar

Gallo has to go. 

 

[tony&rodney]

Falvey gets to show his worth in the next week. In addition to potential trade opportunities there is the decisions to make when Buxton, Polanco, and Thielbar return. I'm not sure when Lewis is expected back in action, but that is another roster move, although I expect Lewis spends a week playing for the Saints.

[Sutter50]

41 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

This series IMO was a must win.   If they don’t sweep KC I think the season is over. 

R U Serious Clark?

A bit dramatic aren't we?

[SwainZag]

47 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

This series IMO was a must win.   If they don’t sweep KC I think the season is over. 

It's July and not even the trade deadline yet.  There is 35% of the season left.  Really no reason to be overly dramatic.  A sweep would be great, but by no means it is the season on the line.

[David Maro]

Needed this game badly and why leave Ryan in after 3 innings of pitching batting practice. When you're pitches are being hit into the seats in under 2 seconds its time to change. And  we keep trying to hit solo homeruns to catch up. We were up 4 over  Cleveland other day,may only be 1.5 tomorrow night. They play Chicago WS while we have KC. 

[Peter]

58 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

This series IMO was a must win.   If they don’t sweep KC I think the season is over. 

I agree!!! Definitely need to sweep KC!!! Should’ve swept Seattle!!!! Must must must win every series rest of season after Sweep of KC! 

[Shaitan]

Well, the core bullpen should be available again anyway.

[Nine of twelve]

20 minutes ago, David Maro said:

Needed this game badly and why leave Ryan in after 3 innings of pitching batting practice. When you're pitches are being hit into the seats in under 2 seconds its time to change. 

And which reliever would you have put into the game? In the 4th inning, no less. And what would that do for the KC series.

[mikelink45]

I asked this last game - is Ryan worn out, is this a blip, or has the league caught up with him.  We need him to be the strong and successful pitcher of the first half of the season. 

I

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	App,Dec	DR	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	HBP	WP	IBB	PO	BK	BF	Pit	Str	StL	StS	GB	FB	LD	PU	Unk	GmSc	IR	IS	WPA	aLI	cWPA	acLi	RE24
2023-07-21	MIN		CHW	W 9-4	GS-6, W	4	6.0	7	4	4	1	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	26	104	64	13	15	4	7	2	2	0	51.0			0.011	0.57	0.01%	0.60	-0.926
2023-07-16	MIN	@	OAK	W 5-4	GS-6	6	5.1	5	3	3	3	7	1	1	0	0	0	0	24	91	54	10	14	1	6	4	1	0	50.0			-0.123	1.01	-0.08%	1.03	-1.054
2023-07-09	MIN		BAL	L 2-15	GS-5, L	5	4.1	5	5	5	2	10	2	1	0	0	0	0	21	98	61	15	14	3	4	1	0	0	41.0			-0.168	0.94	-0.10%	0.93	-1.363
2023-07-03	MIN		KCR	W 8-4	GS-6	5	6.0	6	2	2	1	9	1	0	0	0	0	0	25	94	62	16	19	3	5	5	2	0	60.0			0.151	1.13	0.08%	1.00	1.088
2023-06-27	MIN	@	ATL	L 2-6	GS-3, L	4	3.0	9	6	6	0	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	18	82	57	10	9	5	5	2	1	0	22.0			-0.387	0.43	-0.21%	0.39	-4.355

[mikelink45]

I could not finish my post, but I think the Wallner versus Gallo comparison is done - Gallo is a waste of a roster spot yes he finally got a hit and 2 more ks.    I am so pleased to have Wallner, Kiriloff and Julien giving us such a lift.  If Lewis can come back we have four cornerstones for the future.  

I will go back to an earlier posting with a link to mlb.com.  Let's put Buxton in CF.  If he doesn't make it to the end of the season are we any worse off?  

 

[Riverbrian]

On May 27th... Matt Wallner went 4 for 4 with a home run. He Followed that up with a 2 for 2 day along with 2 walks on May 28th. 

On May 29th he was sent down as Max Kepler returned from the Disabled List. 

On July 25th... Matt Wallner hit his 2nd home run. He followed that up with 2 home runs on July 26th. 

Will history repeat itself? Maybe Wallner should stop having big games so he can stay up. 😁

[Markdumont25]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Bats against bad teams?   I don’t know.  

Well We haven't been hitting against bad teams either this year so It's still a step forward... Plus, Seattle isn't a bad team

[Markdumont25]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

Bats against bad teams?   I don’t know.  

Well We haven't been hitting against bad teams either this year so It's still a step forward... Plus, Seattle isn't a bad team

[sftwinsfan]

Ryan's 1st 10 starts of the season shows 61 IP with an ERA of 2.21 and 4HR's allowed. His next 12 he's also thrown 61 IP but with a 5.90 ERA and 17HR's allowed. Last season he had a 2.28 ERA through May with 3HR's allowed but then had a 5.31 ERA in June and July allowing 11HR's. Both seasons it's like a switch was flipped right around the end of May. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Chthulu said:

I posted this in the Twins subreddit but I'll post it here.

Joey Gallo in 79 GP/ 260 PA - .2 bWar

Matt Wallner in 20 GP/ 58 PA - .8 bWar

Gallo has to go. 

 

Gallo can play a lot of positions well; Wallner can field at a lessor level and that is all.

[MABB1959]

37 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

Well We haven't been hitting against bad teams either this year so It's still a step forward... Plus, Seattle isn't a bad team

Very similar record as the Twins but they in a tougher division 

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

It's July and not even the trade deadline yet.  There is 35% of the season left.  Really no reason to be overly dramatic.  A sweep would be great, but by no means it is the season on the line.

It is like a de’javeau of last season only they were up about 14 games up at this time last year.  I think we are hope for the best but prepare for the worst fans. Let down far too many times 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I could not finish my post, but I think the Wallner versus Gallo comparison is done - Gallo is a waste of a roster spot yes he finally got a hit and 2 more ks.    I am so pleased to have Wallner, Kiriloff and Julien giving us such a lift.  If Lewis can come back we have four cornerstones for the future.  

I will go back to an earlier posting with a link to mlb.com.  Let's put Buxton in CF.  If he doesn't make it to the end of the season are we any worse off?  

 

Actually, add Lee and Jeffers and that means six of our eight position players are legitimate major leaguers comprising our new young “cornerstones” - all making essentially league minimum and controllable for years.  Of course, Correa is the seventh position player and Buxton, although we’d hope he’d be our CF, is the DH (for better or worse).  We could use a FA RH CFer before Rodriguez appears in ‘25 and Jenkins hopefully in ‘26 or ‘27.

With Vasquez, Farmer, and two of Polanco, Larnach, Castro and Gordon, I’d take those 13 position players right now in ‘24. 

[glunn]

2 hours ago, sftwinsfan said:

Ryan's 1st 10 starts of the season shows 61 IP with an ERA of 2.21 and 4HR's allowed. His next 12 he's also thrown 61 IP but with a 5.90 ERA and 17HR's allowed. Last season he had a 2.28 ERA through May with 3HR's allowed but then had a 5.31 ERA in June and July allowing 11HR's. Both seasons it's like a switch was flipped right around the end of May. 

Maybe he needs to skip a start or two? Put him on the 10-day IL and let Varland come up?

[D.C Twins]

17 minutes ago, glunn said:

Maybe he needs to skip a start or two? Put him on the 10-day IL and let Varland come up?

Yes.... but I'd give the start to the previous cy young winner doing well in AAA with an upcoming opt out instead of a still struggling Varland 🙂

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

And which reliever would you have put into the game? In the 4th inning, no less. And what would that do for the KC series.

If only Cole Sands wasn't in the witness protection plan, maybe he could have been asked to pitch 3 innings or so.

But it appears we're playing with 1 fewer pitcher than everyone else. 

Ryan clearly didn't have it. Couldn't locate, velocity noticeably down. Lots of traffic on the bases. Arguments to be made to take him out after 3. Also arguments to leave him in, to be sure, but "no relievers available" isn't really one of them. 

 

 

[jkcarew]

It’s pretty clear that in Rocco’s mind Buxton has been the one blocking Wallner…not Gallo. It’s been the opening up of the DH at-bats that finally got him here. (Today he rested Kepler).

That, and Rocco doesn’t want to give up the delta in defensive flexibility between Wallner (none), and Gallo (a lot).

But if Wallner is going to hit,,,and Gallo is not…it can’t be ignored when Buxton (and Polanco) return.

As usual, the obvious solve is putting Buxton in center. Then you can part company with Gallo, and take turns picking between Wallner and Julien who you’re going to hide at DH.

[mickster]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Showing Wallner should have stayed up... How many more wins with Wallner instead of Gallo the last month?

I have been won over and prefer we keep Wallner, but what will happen by Friday with Polanco and Buxton coming back?  Are there moves happening today to free up roster space?      Gallo was pulled yesterday for an illness so I could see him hitting the IL, but then who?  It has to be Larnach or Wallner right?   A trade would put someone on our ML Roster so maybe it will be a two for one?   

[mickster]

9 hours ago, glunn said:

Maybe he needs to skip a start or two? Put him on the 10-day IL and let Varland come up?

Send Winder back down and bring up Dallas and go to a 6 man rotation for a turn, then replace Sands with another BP arm.