Planning Minnesota's Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline

[Cody Christie]

Last season, the Twins made multiple trades before the injuries pushed the team out of the AL Central race. So, how can the front office plan for a perfect trade deadline in 2023?

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig (Hernandez), Gregory Fisher (Robertson), John Hefti (Raley)- USA TODAY Sports

Many evaluators looked at the Twins' 2022 trade deadline with a positive view. Minnesota had clear needs at the deadline, and the team addressed those needs by trading for one of the top available starting pitchers, two late-inning relievers, and a back-up catcher. The Tyler Mahle and Jorge Lopez trades have not fared well over the last calendar year, but that should deter the front office from making other moves in 2023. 

Entering the 2023 trade deadline, the Twins have multiple directions the team can follow. Some big names have the potential to be available, including Shohei Ohtani, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Juan Soto. There's no indication the team will be willing to surrender the prospect capital needed to acquire one of those superstars. However, the club can address weaknesses by trading for specific pieces with a lower acquisition cost. 

The Twins have struggled against left-handed pitching for multiple seasons, so a solid right-handed bat can supplement the team's offense. Minnesota's easiest way to address this weakness is to get better production from the other significant right-handed bats on the roster, including Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Many contending teams need bullpen help, and the Twins will likely add at least one reliever before the trade deadline. It will be up to the front office to balance the quality of players being acquired and the prospects the organization will need to surrender. 

If the Twins want a perfect 2023 trade deadline, these are the players the team should target.

Right-Handed Bat: Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Multiple teams are on the cusp of being buyers or sellers before the deadline, and the Mariners are part of this group. Minnesota has seen a lot of Seattle recently, so the front office has gotten a close-up look at Hernandez. He destroys left-handed pitching and is a free agent at the season's end. Over the last three seasons, only two players have a higher OPS versus lefties than Hernandez. His defense could be better in the outfield, but the Twins might only need him for specific match-ups down the stretch. 
Back-Up Option: Hunter Renfroe, Los Angeles Angels

Late Inning Bullpen Arm: David Robertson, New York Mets
Minnesota hopes to add Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart back to the bullpen mix in August, but there are no guarantees with their age and injury histories. Robertson is one of the top available relievers that comes with extensive playoff experience and no signs of slowing down. His cost will be significantly higher than other bullpen options, but he might provide the most considerable potential boost. Relievers on expiring contracts are limited in the amount of innings they can pitch down the stretch. However, the Twins hope to play into October when Robertson can have an even more significant impact. 
Back-Up Option: Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals

Left-Handed Reliever: Brooks Raley, New York Mets
The Mets have multiple relief arms likely to be dealt before the deadline, and in this perfect scenario, the Twins acquire their top two relief arms before the deadline. Raley is under team control through the 2024 season so that he can help the team next season. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and a 99-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 88 1/3 innings. Raley has held left-handed hitters for his career to a .546 OPS with 104 strikeouts and 17 walks in 313 PA. Jovani Moran is the only lefty currently on the active roster, and there is no guarantee that Thielbar will be at 100% before the season's end. The Twins need to add a lefty, especially for crucial match-ups in October. 
Back-Up Option: Brad Hand, Colorado Rockies

How would you plan Minnesota's perfect trade deadline? Do they need to be in the market for one of the big names? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Perfect would include Ohtani :)

 

But yeah, this sounds really good too :)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Let's get this out of the way early:

TRADE GALLO, KEPLER, AND PAGAN FOR ANYTHING!!!

Sorry, had to appease the masses...

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I may be in the minority here, but I do not see a bullpen move being a top priority.  Sure, they will make a move for Robertson or another quality arm if they can get one on the cheap, but I think they have bigger issues:

1) They need to make a decision on Buxton.  Everybody can see he is not healthy and is generally hurting the team.  Are they willing to pull the plug on him to get him healthy?

2) Another higher contact bat would be a strong addition.  You could argue the only positions that are "locked" are catcher and shortstop.  Everyone else provides enough positional flexibility that the aren't blocking a move.

3) Do not overlook Dallas Keuchel.  Him deciding not to opt out could play a huge role here.

[RJA]

Am I mistaken, or are Raley's splits this year not good against lefties?  Hand's splits are much better against lefties this year I think.  Plus, his home and away splits are much better out of Coors Field, which is not surprising.  I am not in favor of adding any reliever on anything other than an expiring contract as there is too much fluctuation between seasons.  I agree totally with you on the bats.  Let's not make long term, costly additions there until we see whether Buxton is every going to play CF again, and whether Lewis is an option.  If not, make a trade in the offseason when the asking prices are more reasonable, and we know more about player availability.

[Vanimal46]

16 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I may be in the minority here, but I do not see a bullpen move being a top priority.  Sure, they will make a move for Robertson or another quality arm if they can get one on the cheap, but I think they have bigger issues:

1) They need to make a decision on Buxton.  Everybody can see he is not healthy and is generally hurting the team.  Are they willing to pull the plug on him to get him healthy?

2) Another higher contact bat would be a strong addition.  You could argue the only positions that are "locked" are catcher and shortstop.  Everyone else provides enough positional flexibility that the aren't blocking a move.

3) Do not overlook Dallas Keuchel.  Him deciding not to opt out could play a huge role here.

Agreed with all of your points. I also think bullpen arms aren’t a top priority. In fact, I would rather see one or more of Balazovic, Sands, and Ortega progress to more frequent, higher leverage work. Stewart and Thielbar are coming back soon. If we add another old veteran, all of the younger pitchers are back in St Paul. 

Keuchel not opting out is certainly worth keeping an eye on. Makes me wonder if there’s an arrangement made that he will be activated if/when a trade is made? 

[Otaknam]

Their minor league teams were hit hard by trades last year, with little to show for it. I’m hoping the top prospects are off the board like Lee, Schobel, Rodriquez, Festa, Raya, , and maybe even Cosetta. My guess is they will trade for a player and LHP who are free agents at the end of the season, which minimizes what they have to give up. I’m still not convinced they can make a legit run in the playoffs. The contrast between the Twins and other teams was stark when they played Atlanta and Tampa Bay, and even Baltimore, though Tampa has struggled lately. 

[DJL44]

They should be focused on selling the prospects they aren't interested in adding to the 40 man roster. I think they can get a reliever for Severino.

[GKuehl]

If we can trade Gallo for anything (including a bucket of baseballs) we should.

He’s clogging up the roster and impeding our ability to determine whether Larnach and Wallner should be core players to build around. Gallo’s OPS is propped up by a red-hot May, and he’s playing like the same player who got boo’ed out of New York last year. Time to cut our losses and either trade him to a team looking for a power-hitting pinch hitter or DFA him so Larnach or Wallner can get an extended look, especially since they can’t play any worse than Gallo has this season. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Let's get this out of the way early:

TRADE GALLO, KEPLER, AND PAGAN FOR ANYTHING!!!

Sorry, had to appease the masses...

We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

	wRC+
Edouard Julien	182
Ryan Jeffers	153
Royce Lewis	138
Max Kepler	138
Alex Kirilloff	123
Donovan Solano	123
Kyle Farmer	112
Carlos Correa	98
Willi Castro	90
Matt Wallner	82
Joey Gallo	79
Christian Vazquez	66
Michael A. Taylor	64
Byron Buxton	53
	ERA
Emilio Pagan	1.13
Jordan Balazovic	1.29
Griffin Jax	1.88
Kenta Maeda	2.48
Oliver Ortega	2.77
Bailey Ober	2.93
Jhoan Duran	2.93
Pablo Lopez	4.15
Sonny Gray	4.81
Jovani Moran	5.4
Joe Ryan	5.75

[NotAboutWinning]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well. 

Most definitely! The Twins have had such a Jeckel & Hyde season, they should only be looking at recent performance to plan for a post-season run.

[Trov]

Of course if you can add better pen arms that is always a possible upgrade, but our farm system is thinning out, and unless current MLB rostered players are included in trades some will be DFA/released for anyone you bring in.  I would not get mad at another high leverage guy, preferred left handed, to throw out there in late innings, but pen is not our biggest issue. 

Hitting left handed pitching is biggest issue, but is it as big of an issue we may think? Looking at the other likely playoff matchups only 2 teams, Boston and Yankees, currently have more than 1 left handed starter that would likely start in playoffs.  Every other team has 1 or 0 left handed starters that fall into top 4 starters really. Of course some teams may make a change if they face Twins.  

My point is, do we make a trade for a guy to simply play 1 game in the playoffs, or pinch hit a few times, because they are slightly better against lefties?  Keeping in mind it is hard for many to just play part time against lefties and sit rest of time.  I am not saying we should pass on possible upgrades, but do not overpay for what you are hoping is like at most 10 at bats per round of playoffs. Yes, if those at bats would be the difference makers then it would make sense, but for all we know they would have little impact. Keep in mind Lewis should be coming back, and CC is heating up.  They could make the difference as well. 

[RLTW894]

I absolutely think Buxton at DH is hurting the team. He is batting under .200 and striking out far too much. Twins need an upgrade at DH 

Buxton needs to play LF, a shade closer to the 3rd base line and warning track. His speed can handle the open field. His body can't handle the walls. This will limit him from getting a full head of steam towards danger zones. I think he also needs it for his mental game. He is one of the best OFs in the game and even if he still hits sub-.200, at least Twins get a little more value out of him. He is too good to waste like this.

As for Buxton's hitting slump this year, the solution is to refocus him to dial in on walks. Even if he strikes out looking, he's already striking out.  Opposing pitchers know this and aren't giving him the pitches he likes. So why not get walks? His speed can turn a walk into a double. He would also help team by reducing how long a starter lasts.

Once other teams see this and adjust after a month or so, Buxton can start swinging as he gets better pitches, and it would happen at a crucial point in the season.

We all want to see Byron succeed again.

[RLTW894]

3 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Let's get this out of the way early:

TRADE GALLO, KEPLER, AND PAGAN FOR ANYTHING!!!

Sorry, had to appease the masses...

Pagan has been doing very well lately. He gets strikeouts, which is important for a reliever. Think last year. Cano was blowing 6 run leads and had an ERA above 11 before "settling down" to a 9 ERA. He had tools, but was so ineffective. Now he is an all star. 

The best possible trade Twins could make is getting whoever is Baltimore's pitching coach for relief pitchers!

Kepler is always slow coming back from injury. But he has cleared past that phase and in the month of July, batting just shy of .300 with 3 HRs. Last year, Kepler's batting stance was straight up with feet nearly together. Opposing pitchers were attacking him with low sliders and he'd whiff on them a lot. His contact was mostly grounders.

This year, Kepler has opened up his stance, which allows his bat to get low pitches a hair faster and it's been his biggest asset. After working on spreading the ball to beat the shift last year, that work has made him a more complete hitter and you are seeing the results of that now that he is healthy.

Looking at what else is out there, it might be best to keep him if he can be signed for the same or less after his contract is up.

Gallo should be traded or let go. Wallner could get more in return than Kepler, though I'd like to see him stay. Same with Larnach. However, if other teams offer a good trade for Max, then I believe the Twins would do a trade. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

We should probably pay some attention to which players have been performing well as the team starts to produce better results.  Does not make sense to me to trade away the players performing well.  Here are the stats for the last 6 weeks.  

	wRC+
Edouard Julien	182
Ryan Jeffers	153
Royce Lewis	138
Max Kepler	138
Alex Kirilloff	123
Donovan Solano	123
Kyle Farmer	112
Carlos Correa	98
Willi Castro	90
Matt Wallner	82
Joey Gallo	79
Christian Vazquez	66
Michael A. Taylor	64
Byron Buxton	53
	ERA
Emilio Pagan	1.13
Jordan Balazovic	1.29
Griffin Jax	1.88
Kenta Maeda	2.48
Oliver Ortega	2.77
Bailey Ober	2.93
Jhoan Duran	2.93
Pablo Lopez	4.15
Sonny Gray	4.81
Jovani Moran	5.4
Joe Ryan	5.75

Don't bring facts to an emotional argument.

[Cap'n Piranha]

There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline;

1. The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength
2. The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason
3. The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere

I don't think point 1 applies to this year's team, so the Twins should only be looking for players that are undervalued by their current team, or have additional control (but please, no more trades for oft-injured players or players with a SSS of success).

I would not trade for a reliever under almost any circumstances, as relievers are just so variable.  As has already been pointed out, I would much prefer to see which of our young guys find success down the stretch.

Given all of this, I would not be buying unless it is a game-changing move (Ohtani or Soto) and I just can't see the Twins being willing to give up the prospects necessary for those players (unless the Angels lose their minds, and think Varland, Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and SWR are all going to be #2 starters, and are willing to take those 5 in return for Ohtani).

[Major League Ready]

58 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Don't bring facts to an emotional argument.

I was right there with you until a week or so ago.

[IndianaTwin]

If we're talking "Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline," let's add the Twins going at least 3-2 the rest of the week and Cleveland going no better than 2-4. That puts Cleveland four games under .500 and 5.5 games back and hopefully makes them fully enter "sell" mode, depleting themselves a little further for future years. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

18 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

If we're talking "Perfect 2023 Trade Deadline," let's add the Twins going at least 3-2 the rest of the week and Cleveland going no better than 2-4. That puts Cleveland four games under .500 and 5.5 games back and hopefully makes them fully enter "sell" mode, depleting themselves a little further for future years. 

The whole point of selling is to strengthen yourself for future years.  If you truly want Cleveland depleted for future years, you should be hoping the Twins go 0-5 while Cleveland goes 6-0, so Cleveland will decide to be buyers.

[IndianaTwin]

3 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The whole point of selling is to strengthen yourself for future years.  If you truly want Cleveland depleted for future years, you should be hoping the Twins go 0-5 while Cleveland goes 6-0, so Cleveland will decide to be buyers.

Yeah, that's the danger of sneaking in a comment during a break from work. 😄

You are, of course, correct. I meant to say, "...deplete themselves further for the rest of the year."

 

But I do think there's an element of truth here. If Cleveland bails, that makes it less important to tweak for the rest of the season. And given the random nature of the playoffs, I'm always less about trying to tweak for the playoffs than I am for getting there. 

[lukeduke1980]

The names to acquire are fine, but what is the cost?  Not opposed, but have no idea what it would take to acquire any or all mentioned 

[IndianaTwin]

An observation, and a hope. 

Observation:
In one of the past two years, I remember going to the work of looking through the Twins and other teams' trades and found that over the previous number of years, the Twins had made an above-average number of trades. They've also shown a willingness to start those moves earlier in the month, rather than wait until the last day. Nelson Cruz was traded on the 21st, Magill and Morin traded for on the 19th and Escobar traded on the 27th. And, of course, Jaime Garcia was traded for on the 24th, early enough to get traded away a week later. There was also plenty of waiver action related to freeing up roster spots, etc.

Plenty more trades have happened in the last day or two of the trade windows, but I have to wonder if the fact that we haven't seen much activity so far may be part of leading us to a less-active trading season for the Twins this year. That leads to a...

 

Hope:
If this does lead to a trade season when they largely stay put with what they've built over the offseason, can we please not have articles and comments ad nauseum about stupid the front office is and how they are not committed to winning? Most of us already have our opinions one way or the other, and those opinions probably aren't going to change with seven more days of activity or inactivity. 

 

I can hope, right?    

[specialiststeve]

A bit skimpy on the options... 

Here is a better look at the options... 

https://theathletic.com/4716877/2023/07/25/mlb-trade-deadline-teams-players-rumors/

Max has been playing MUCH better... perfect time to move him... Maybe Dylan Carlson or O'Neil from the Cards...

Teoscar would be nice also. 

Bullpen arms are anyones guess ... so many out there. PLEASE do not overspend... See Lopez trade.. 

[NotAboutWinning]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline;

1. The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength
2. The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason
3. The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere

You forgot reason #4: The team has an 18 game post-season losing streak that needs to end!

[IndianaTwin]

12 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

A bit skimpy on the options... 

Here is a better look at the options... 

https://theathletic.com/4716877/2023/07/25/mlb-trade-deadline-teams-players-rumors/

Max has been playing MUCH better... perfect time to move him... Maybe Dylan Carlson or O'Neil from the Cards...

Teoscar would be nice also. 

Bullpen arms are anyones guess ... so many out there. PLEASE do not overspend... See Lopez trade.. 

From the article:  "The Cardinals are seeking young controllable pitchers and pitching prospects in return."

They will have no interest in Kepler. If they trade OFs, it's because they already have too many of them. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

13 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

You forgot reason #4: The team has an 18 game post-season losing streak that needs to end!

Not a reason.  I don't care about the 18 game postseason losing streak.  I care about the 32 year No World Series Appearances streak.

[terrydactyls]

19 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

You forgot reason #4: The team has an 18 game post-season losing streak that needs to end!

Mortgage the future in hopes of winning one playoff game?  Ridiculous.

And I totally agree wity LukeDuke1980.  There are tons of suggestions about who to acquire, but very little discussion of what it would cost to get them.  The Twins' farm is pretty sparse after last year's debacle and no one wants to trade for Gallo, Garlick, Kepler, etc.

[TL]

5 hours ago, GKuehl said:

If we can trade Gallo for anything (including a bucket of baseballs) we should.

He’s clogging up the roster and impeding our ability to determine whether Larnach and Wallner should be core players to build around. Gallo’s OPS is propped up by a red-hot May, and he’s playing like the same player who got boo’ed out of New York last year. Time to cut our losses and either trade him to a team looking for a power-hitting pinch hitter or DFA him so Larnach or Wallner can get an extended look, especially since they can’t play any worse than Gallo has this season. 

You may as well just release him then. Nobody is going to trade for him and then pay him. 

[clone52]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

There are only 3 reasons a team should be buyers at the deadline;

1. The team is a strong contender to make/win the World Series, and they need to shore up their only weakness or turn an area of average performance into a strength
2. The team is building to the next year, and acts to acquire players with additional control, rather than wait until the offseason
3. The deal on offer is just too good to pass up, even if the team isn't really going anywhere

I don't think point 1 applies to this year's team, so the Twins should only be looking for players that are undervalued by their current team, or have additional control (but please, no more trades for oft-injured players or players with a SSS of success).

I would not trade for a reliever under almost any circumstances, as relievers are just so variable.  As has already been pointed out, I would much prefer to see which of our young guys find success down the stretch.

Given all of this, I would not be buying unless it is a game-changing move (Ohtani or Soto) and I just can't see the Twins being willing to give up the prospects necessary for those players (unless the Angels lose their minds, and think Varland, Festa, Raya, Prielipp, and SWR are all going to be #2 starters, and are willing to take those 5 in return for Ohtani).

I'd be willing to trade for a reliever for cash or some really low end prospect.  Agree that trading for relievers is a crapshoot though.

I do think they get get a RH outfielder, though.  Even a rental like Grichuk, who wouldn't fit the bill.  Would anyone complain about giving up Carlos Aguiar or Willie Joe Garry Jr.?

The other thing to think about is the 40 man roster and the Rule V draft.  Looking at the current Twins 40 man, I count 33 they would retain.  That includes guys like Canterino, Headrick, Henriquez, Sands, Winder, Gordon.  Possible they could drop one or more of those.  I put maybes on 5 guys, De Leon, Ortega, Farmer, Kepler and Taylor.  

I don't know who exactly is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year, but if there are prospects who are eligible who the Twins know they won't protect, they might be willing to trade them now.


 

 

[nicksaviking]

I'm also in the crowd of not needing a relief arm, but I could see them going after Robertson.

The alternate options listed I'd think are unlikely though. The last several years the Twins have quietly built a bullpen that limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground, which is surely a large reason for the late inning infield defensive replacements. I would guess they'd have next to no interest in Hand or Hicks. Especially Hicks. Maybe they'd be interested in Raley, but he is a flyball pitcher.