If Rocco Baldelli is Fired, Should Nelson Cruz Be the Twins Next Manager?

[Cody Schoenmann]

If the Twins miss the playoff this season, widespread organizational changes will likely occur. One of the changes could be the firing of manager Rocco Baldelli. If Baldelli gets fired, would former Twins slugger Nelson Cruz make sense as his successor?

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The last three and a half months of Twins fandom has felt like being forced to open a cursed Matryoshka doll. The first and largest doll is an inept offense. The next doll is a stubborn front office who won't part ways with players. The third doll is star players being injured or underperforming. So on and so forth. 

There has been a yin-and-yang nature about this Twins team all season. They will look competent against teams like the Royals and Athletics but then completely submit and get swept by teams like the Braves or Orioles. 

To quote pop icon, Olivia Rodrigo, "It's always one step forward and three steps back."

Consistently beating bad teams is a good thing, and it may be enough to win this year's AL Central crown, as the Twins have the easiest remaining strength of schedule for any team in baseball, but this team is something other than a real contender.

Although the Twins' chances of making the playoffs this year are favorable (75% on Fangraphs and 81.5% on Baseball Reference), it is evident that they cannot play at the same level as some of the best teams in the American League. 

Excuses and justifications have been and will continue to be made, but action needs to be taken by those in charge. And if the Twins miss the playoffs, that action must be extreme. Passivity will no longer do.

The great auteurist Wes Anderson once wrote, "You can't wake up if you don't fall asleep."

In my interpretation, this quote means that we, as people, cannot genuinely move on or accept something that has happened to us until we go through a genuine period of emotional mourning and acceptance. 

When applied to the 2023 Twins, Anderson's quote can be interpreted as if the Twins miss the playoffs this year, and they would need to sleep or reset if they ever want to wake up as an organization.

This idea has been nearly impossible for the Pohlad family to accept in years past, but with new executive chair Joe Pohlad at the helm, this upcoming off-season may be different. 

To genuinely pursue a sense of awakening, or progression, the first step Joe Pohlad would have to make is relieving President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey, Manager Rocco Baldelli, and the Twins coaching staff of their duties.

At the moment, that feels like an unlikelihood, but in a recent interview with Star Tribune's Jim Souhan, Pohlad expressed a sense of urgency that has opened eyes amongst those who follow the Twins closely. 

If the Twins fail to win the lowly American League Central and miss the playoffs for the third season, would Pohlad fire Falvey? It feels unlikely, as Pohlad and Falvey appear to have incredible respect and an overall relationship with one another. Even so, the Twins would be forced to make organizational shake-ups, and the most logical shake-up would be to fire Baldelli. 

The firing of Baldelli would be a surprise that would feel like a scapegoating tactic, but change, even if symbolic, is better than blatant stagnation. If Baldelli got fired, who would be the best option to replace him?

A fascinating option is former Twins slugger Nelson Cruz.

Cruz, 43, was designated for assignment by the San Diego Padres on July 4 and eventually released. Despite allegedly drawing interest from teams around the league, Cruz's recent release may signify the end of his playing career. 

Despite Cruz's playing days destined to conclude very soon, that doesn't mean his involvement in Major League Baseball is ending. It may open up the door for a new chapter, his managerial chapter. 

During the past World Baseball Classic, Cruz served as the General Manager of the Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Team. Cruz also played for the team serving as the primary designated hitter. 

Despite not managing the team in-game, Cruz was in a position of power, having to construct a team and make player-centric decisions, similar to the responsibilities a Major League manager is tasked with on a game-to-game basis. 

During his relatively brief time with Minnesota from 2019-2021, Cruz had a significant presence in the clubhouse, and many viewed him as the leader of the infamous 2019 Bomba Squad. Despite Jorge Alcala, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Byron Buxton being the last remaining members of the Bomba Squad, Cruz's impact has remained in Minnesota, and his return as a manager would be welcomed with open arms by both players and ownership. 

Also, the Twins have a robust Latino presence on their current team, with 16 members of the 40-man roster of Latino descent. Major League Baseball has the most substantial Latino presence it has ever had, yet there are only four Major League managers of Latino descent. By the end of the 2023 season, only one manager of Latino descent could be left in Alex Cora, as Oliver Marmol, Dave Martinez, and Pedro Grifol could be relieved of their duties due to poor team performance. 

Similarly to Black coaches in the National Football League, coaches of Latino descent deserve more opportunities in Major League Baseball. And Cruz is a coaching candidate of Latino descent that should be pursued if the Twins do, in fact, fire Baldelli. 

Do Former Players Perform Well as First-Time Managers?
This is an interesting question, as sometimes they do and sometimes they do not. Let's look at recent former players' who recently stepped away from playing in the MLB's first seasons as full-time managers:

• Craig Counsell, Brewers (2016): 73-89
• Dave Roberts, Dodgers (2016): 91-71
• Aaron Boone, Yankees (2018): 100-62
• Alex Cora, Red Sox (2018): 108-54 (WS Champions)
• Gabe Kapler, Phillies (2018): 80-82
• Rocco Baldelli, Twins (2019): 101-60
• David Ross, Cubs (2020): 34-26
• Mark Kotsay, Athletics (2022): 60-102
• Skip Schumaker, Marlins (2023): Currently 53-43

Five of the eight managers on this list had winning records in their first seasons, and Schumaker projects to have a winning record. A 62% success rate is nothing to overlook, but context is needed. Boone, Roberts, and Ross inherited above-average rosters with winning expectations, Cora cheated, and the juiced ball helped Baldelli and the 2019 Twins immensely. 

On the other hand, Kotsay, Kapler, and Counsell were handed lowly teams without a strong foundation or the expectation of winning. First-time managers, and managers in general, shouldn't be given too much praise or blame, as what happens on the field is largely out of their hands. Despite this being the case, managers do control the environment and overall culture their 26-man roster breeds.

For example, a huge reason why the Cardinals, who are 43-53, are struggling this year could be because their manager, Oliver Marmol, has created a toxic and aggressive environment. On the flip side, the Marlins, who are 53-45, are performing so well this year because Schumaker created an inclusive and welcoming environment where players tend to thrive. 

What would Cruz's expectations be?
It depends on if Pohlad decides to fire Falvey. If Falvey stays, fans can expect more of the same as the front office is the control center of the Twins organization, and Falvey's process won't change as long as he remains the President of Baseball Operations. The Twins will platoon, pinch-hit, be stubborn about keeping veterans to maintain depth, etc. 

If Pohlad fires Falvey, expectations for Cruz and a hypothetical new front become an open door.

The 2024 Twins team that Cruz would be inheriting compares most notably to the 2020 Cubs team that Ross inherited. 

The 2020 Cubs, who finished 34-26 in the COVID shortened 2020 season, were headlined by star players Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and frontline starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks finished first place in the NL Central before getting swept 2-0 by the Miami Marlins in the shortened three-game Wild Card round.

If fully actualized, the 2020 Cubs were on pace for an 88-74 record, and this Twins roster feels like an 88-win team. 

A core of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, Bailey Ober, with a blossoming Edouard Julien, and potential star in Brooks Lee is a roster that, if managed correctly, is capable of winning divisional titles and playoff games. 

Cruz has the qualities of a great manager. A voice that is heard and respected, the ability to create genuine and healthy relationships with players, and a strong presence within the clubhouse. Would he thrive in game theory and making decisions like when to pull a starting pitcher and which reliever to use? That is unknown. But Cruz has played professional baseball for 19 years and has been around the game for much longer. 

Taking chances on former players as first-time managers feels risky, but it has proven to be a success almost two-thirds of the time in recent history. 

If the Twins move on from Baldelli this off-season and Cruz elects to retire from playing, they should consider hiring Cruz as their next manager. 

What do you think? Should the Twins consider hiring Nelson Cruz if they fire Rocco Baldelli this upcoming off-season? Comment below.

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[Nine of twelve]

Now you're just making stuff up.

[Brett]

One ex-player with no managerial experience that underperformed followed by another ex-player with no managerial experience? Intriguing, but doubtful.

[CRF]

When I saw the headline, I thought this was a RandBall deal.

[Dave The Dastardly]

One word: Dougie

[Brandon27]

NO

[Dakota Diver]

Doggie as manager, Cruz as hitting coach

[Dakota Diver]

Dougie as manager, Cruz as hitting coach

[Dave Borton]

"Pohlad expressed a sense of urgency that has opened eyes amongst those who follow the Twins closely..."

I believe the line was for public consumption only.

Your byline includes "If Baldelli is fired..." 'If' is the operative word in the clause. Not going to happen.

Loved Cruz as a player. Personality strikes me as a nice man but not sure there is leadership as an attribute. Teammate yes; manager doubtful. Hitting coach, possibly.

Mere opinions from the recliner. Heck, my grandson works me over in ball now. Missed throws seem further away than they used to be.

[mikelink45]

I have no opinion on this.  It takes a real inventory of needs and options.  We have to have the best available. 

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Now you're just making stuff up.

Couldn't agree more. I could forsee a move where they entice a Bochy type to come to Minnesota. No not LaRussa. Nah. Forget about it. Should have put the satire lead before the post.

[Paul Walerius]

Everyone knows that if Rocco is gone Pohlads will have gardenhire coach.   He coaches his tail off.

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

One word: Dougie

The only way the Twins would hire Mientkiewicz as their manager is if Terry Ryan was re-hired as the President of Baseball Operations and the entire analytics department was gutted lol. Hiring Mientkiewicz would be a sign of regression as an organization, and I don't see Joe Pohlad taking that approach. Mientkiewicz is entertaining to listen to on podcasts, but I don't see him being a manager in the MLB any time soon. 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Jocko87]

I think the auto post schedule thingy is broken. 

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

One word: Dougie

No way. For many reasons, no. He was let go for good reason, and I don’t want that here.

[curt1965]

I thought this was a very well written and thoughtful analysis of a subject on the minds of many Twins fans. It might have to be revisited in early October.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, davidborton said:

"Pohlad expressed a sense of urgency that has opened eyes amongst those who follow the Twins closely..."

I believe the line was for public consumption only.

Your byline includes "If Baldelli is fired..." 'If' is the operative word in the clause. Not going to happen.

Loved Cruz as a player. Personality strikes me as a nice man but not sure there is leadership as an attribute. Teammate yes; manager doubtful. Hitting coach, possibly.

Mere opinions from the recliner. Heck, my grandson works me over in ball now. Missed throws seem further away than they used to be.

I’m with you on doubt Rocco is fired. They’d have to miss the post season, and even then, maybe third place in the division.

I have no idea if Cruz can be a good manager or hitting coach. This is probably not the right time for the Twins to find out… unless Falvey or Levine get canned and they gut/rebuild. 
 

a scorched-earth rebuild might drive me away from the team. Yuck

[Richie the Rally Goat]

11 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

Everyone knows that if Rocco is gone Pohlads will have gardenhire coach.   He coaches his tail off.

I’m with you. Toby is probably heir apparent 

edit to add: I think he’s a great candidate

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Dougie and Nelson.  That would be entertaining, if entertaining is watching a dumpster fire.  Neither are ready for the job they would be given and the team would be very likely to be unsuccessful.  I liked both a lot, in their time, and that time has passed.

[lukeduke1980]

Maintaining first place in a season when the 2 primary superstars have been anything but- I think Rocco sticks around.  

[Mortimerkenny21]

As much as we question Rocco every step of the way, and he baffles us sometimes, I think he actually has a decent grasp on being a manger. Right I know, we rant and rave sometimes seems like he should just go with it and not all the analytical stats. But I don't think he is bad. Love Cruz, don't think he is quite ready for this. Maybe hitting coach, idk?!?! Is this article click bait? Maybe. Mission accomplished, I clicked. Same as the Goldschmidt & Kirilloff article.

[Cody Schoenmann]

9 minutes ago, Mortimerkenny21 said:

As much as we question Rocco every step of the way, and he baffles us sometimes, I think he actually has a decent grasp on being a manger. Right I know, we rant and rave sometimes seems like he should just go with it and not all the analytical stats. But I don't think he is bad. Love Cruz, don't think he is quite ready for this. Maybe hitting coach, idk?!?! Is this article click bait? Maybe. Mission accomplished, I clicked. Same as the Goldschmidt & Kirilloff article.

I didn't intend for this to be a clickbait article. I wanted to look at the insight and skills Cruz could provide as a manager, analyze how former players perform as first-time managers, and bring to light how Latino members of the baseball community are underrepresented in the managerial hiring process. I hope I was able to accomplish that. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

I’m with you. Toby is probably heir apparent 

I do like Toby as a candidate as well. 

[Squirrel]

6 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I didn't intend for this to be a clickbait article. I wanted to look at the insight and skills Cruz could provide as a manager, analyze how former players perform as first-time managers, and bring to light how Latino members of the baseball community are underrepresented in the managerial hiring process. I hope I was able to accomplish that. 

Then title your article to reflect that. You spent too much time on the aspect of if and why Baldelli could be fired and didn’t focus on Cruz and his path to a managerial role. That’s what made it seem clicky in that it was a bit confusing what exactly this was about. I mean Baldelli being fired isn’t Cruz’ path forward. Instead maybe highlight on how some former players made it to the top and then compare how Cruz could do that. Or if it’s about Latin players making that shift, then focus on how other Latin players made their way in or how others were denied the opportunity. Baldelli potentially being fired really has nothing to do with that, but it’s a ‘clicks’ subject matter in these parts. But back to Cruz, I’d like to see him in a managerial role someday, whether here or elsewhere, but not sure how that path looks for him. I’d love it if he were a hitting coach for us, as a start. Or maybe a lead role in player development. But doubtful he, or any player, goes right from playing to managing. And he would have to officially retire from playing first. Has he?

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Then title your article to reflect that. You spent too much time on the aspect of if and why Baldelli could be fired and didn’t focus on Cruz and his path to a managerial role. That’s what made it seem clicky in that it was a bit confusing what exactly this was about. I mean Baldelli being fired isn’t Cruz’ path forward. Instead maybe highlight on how some former players made it to the top and then compare how Cruz could do that. Or if it’s about Latin players making that shift, then focus on how other Latin players made their way in or how others were denied the opportunity. Baldelli potentially being fired really has nothing to do with that, but it’s a ‘clicks’ subject matter in these parts. But back to Cruz, I’d like to see him in a managerial role someday, whether here or elsewhere, but not sure how that path looks for him. I’d love it if he were a hitting coach for us, as a start. Or maybe a lead role in player development. But doubtful he, or any player, goes right from playing to managing. And he would have to officially retire from playing first. Has he?

I concur with all this, except to say that there have been player-managers over the years and a DH would be the easiest position to play while managing.

[jmlease1]

I like Nelson Cruz and I think he might have a future in managing, if he wants it. But let's pump the brakes for a second: you're talking about him going from playing directly to the top dugout job, which is a major challenge and could be setting him up to fail. Let's look at your list a little more closely on guys who supposedly moved to managing right after playing:

• Craig Counsell, Brewers (2016): 73-89 (retired from playing in 2011)
• Dave Roberts, Dodgers (2016): 91-71 (retired from playing in 2008)
• Aaron Boone, Yankees (2018): 100-62 (retired from playing in 2009)
• Alex Cora, Red Sox (2018): 108-54 (WS Champions) (retired from playing in 2011)
• Gabe Kapler, Phillies (2018): 80-82  (retired from playing in 2010)
• Rocco Baldelli, Twins (2019): 101-60 (retired from playing in 2010)
• David Ross, Cubs (2020): 34-26 (retired from playing in 2016)
• Mark Kotsay, Athletics (2022): 60-102 (retired from playing in 2013)
• Skip Schumaker, Marlins (2023): Currently 53-43 (retired from playing in 2015)

Only David Ross had fewer than 5 years between playing and MLB managing. The average here is like 7 years. Expecting Cruz to step in a year after retiring (and not entirely on his own terms) with essentially no coaching experience seems like a risky move. He'd probably be well served to spend some time on someone's staff (he'd likely make an excellent hitting coach or bench coach immediately) first. Literally no one on this list went straight from playing to managing; all of them had several years before starting their first MLB managing job.

[Karbo]

I would have to look at several candidates before making a choice. I have a ton of respect for Cruz, however, with no real experience maybe start out as bench coach?

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Nine of twelve said:

I concur with all this, except to say that there have been player-managers over the years and a DH would be the easiest position to play while managing.

Recently? Pete Rose did it, but I couldn't find anyone since him. In the modern era, which I'd describe as after Pete Rose there have been none. I don't think we'd see that again, and doubtful that would be Nelson Cruz. 

[killertwinfan]

I like Nelson, but as a manager?  Who knows??? I don’t care much for Rocco but this team has had glaring weaknesses every season and I don’t think there is much Rocco can do about that.  In baseball going all in on pitching sounds like a great start, but if you can’t hit the ball you are going to struggle, just like we are. Trading Arraez, your only consistent hitter, was not wise.  Rolling the dice on your injury prone top talent, was not wise.  Signing Correa to a long term deal, who may end up having injury problems was not wise because it’s too risky with a lot of money.   The issue is the FO.  Maybe they are too constrained?  But I would be willing to see what Rocco can do given a little more help. 

[twinzcynic]

I actually love this idea. In my opinion a large portion of the success of 2019/20 was due to the effect of having Cruz in the dugout (Hunter had a similar effect in 2015). He's a natural leader and the players clearly respect him.