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Posted

During the All-Star break, the New York Yankees parted ways with their analytically-renowned hitting coach in an effort to jolt their underperforming offense.

Are the Minnesota Twins taking note?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

On Sunday, following their 7-4 loss against the Cubs to close out the break, the Yankees announced that they had dismissed hitting coach Dillon Lawson. It was described as a "rare midseason change by a franchise that has prized stability." 

"I've never not been willing to make a decision like this but with careful consideration, I decided as we move forward, we have a sprint here in the second half, I felt like this was necessary," said New York GM Brian Cashman.

It's natural to draw parallels to the situation here in Minnesota, where continual teamwide failures in hitting approach have called into question the viability of top hitting coach David Popkins and his program.

Those parallels are even more intriguing when you take a step back and look at the paths that brought us to this point.

Lawson was originally hired by the Yankees in December of 2021, just weeks after the Twins hired Popkins. The two had a number of commonalities: both fairly young, considered up-and-comers after having success in reputed minor-league systems -- Lawson as minor-league hitting coordinator for the Yankees, Popkins as a Single-A hitting coach for the Dodgers. 

Alas, neither had ever coached or played in the majors before.

From the outside at least, it appeared that the Twins and Yankees were of similar minds when they made these hires. In 2019, they had the two best offenses in baseball, ranking first and second in runs scored, on the strength of power-driven approaches that led to record-setting homer totals. Both clubs embraced a mentality of attacking and elevating the ball, with spectacular results. (Albeit against juiced balls.)

And so, as these potent offenses saw their results dip in 2020 and further in 2021 -- when the Twins ranked 14th in runs scored, the Yankees 19th -- both organizations decided to make a change. Evidently, they wanted to recapture that magic of the 2019 season, because they each selected known students of analytics, at a time where modern hitting theory at large focused greatly on the idea of sacrificing contact for damage swings, and adopting a philosophy where barrels, exit velocity and launch angles became the gold standards. Again: both teams had seen this work brilliantly first-hand.

In 2022, their first year under Lawson, the Yankees returned to the top of the American League in runs scored -- in no small part because of Aaron Judge's otherworldly individual season -- but this year they are back down to 19th at the break. The decision to move on from Lawson is interesting, but so is the choice for his replacement: Sean Casey, who is basically the polar opposite as a hire. 

Casey, who had been working as an MLB Network studio analyst, spent 12 years playing in the majors. He has no previous formal coaching experience, but a lot of big-league playing experience, which the Yankees are hoping will resonate with an underperforming lineup that was still outperforming the Twins (ranked 24th in runs), despite being without Judge.

What can we take away from all of this as Twins fans? Well, the Yankees have now set a fresh precedent with their willingness to make a midseason change, even though it's not in their nature. And they decided to pivot completely away from what they viewed as a broken approach.

Could the Twins do the same? Nelson Cruz is a popular name floating around right now, but there are probably several different candidates out there who would represent a Casey-like change of pace. It would be a very uncharacteristic shift for this front office.

There's another implication here, though. Because the thing is, Casey-like guys are generally going to be the only options available right now. All of the desirable, established, experienced hitting coaches have jobs here in the middle of the season. Well, except maybe one.

If the Twins remain committed to their modernized analytics-driven hitting approach, but feel that maybe Popkins isn't the right voice to effectively coach it, Lawson is now on the market. He was extremely highly regarded around the game when the Yankees hired him less than two years ago. You're almost never going to find a candidate like this available when you're trying to make a hitting coach change in the middle of July. But here we are.

What would you do?


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Posted

Twins & NYY have the same objectives in hitting that only pays off only when "juiced" or "goldielocks" balls are in play & the Twins haven't had that advantage since '19. I'm not against analystics, what I'm against is the objectives from the FO of hitting "moonshots" that results in SOs.

Hiring Lawson won't help. If Cruz is available, I'd prefer him because of his way of motivating players. This is who I'd prefer not only as a head batting coach but also head pitching coach & manager with an analyst there to assist not to head anything.

Posted

Definitely move on from Popkins and 1st would explore whether Nelson Cruz is interested in the job.  Another possibility would be if there is college coach with big league experience either has a coach or player.  I just can't take much more of almost half the outs are strike outs.  Especially the high number of called 3rd strikes.  Swing the bat at the least.

Posted

I’m not in favor of outright firing Popkins.  He obviously has a talent that got him this position at 33 and you should never fire someone you over promoted and hung out to dry. It’s a great way to create a toxic environment and if you believed in the talent you would still want to develop it. 

Frankly we should not be surprised that major league pitching is out thinking him. I’m assuming he has tremendous promise but it does need development. My read is that he is probably very good technically but can’t possibly be major league good at strategy, adjustments or communication which is where the struggles are.   The hitting result feels very much like information overload, too much thinking when milliseconds matter.

I’ve suggested a few times bring Molly or Cruz in as a special assistant.  It would be a great match of new and old school and filter the information to a concise message that can be executed on. It also allows the Twins to make a tacit admission of a mistake without throwing out the bath water. 

This type of thing happens with young executives all the time.  There are entire industries around developing leaders. Even very successful CEO types have personal coaches. It’s just a shame the Twins put him in a situation he couldn’t possibly be ready for.  Honestly I would suggest developing him is one of Rocco’s jobs but I’m reliably informed he just fills out line up cards.🙄

Interestingly as well, Rocco may not realize that is his role.  He’s not much higher on the experience scale than Popkins.  When he ranted about not making adjustments all I can hear is that he is responsible for making sure the adjustments are being made.

To answer the question related to the former Yankees guy.  No.  Same thing.  The voice needed is old school. 

Posted

I'm not sure why people seemed to be convinced Nelson Cruz would be a good hitting coach. He certainly might be, but I have no reason to be convinced of it. That Padres team that just let him go certainly wasn't improved by any of his input over there. The Twins should know him well enough to know what kind of coach he'd be, though. I have very fond memories of him, too, but that doesn't make him a good hitting coach. He clearly knows his swing well, but that doesn't mean he can break down other guy's swings.

I see 1 call for Rowson already, and I'm sure we'll have more on this thread. Confused by that since he's had absolutely horrible offenses since he left. My thing with this offense is that it lacks talent. Rowson's offenses since he left have lacked talent. He wasn't able to turn them into even league average offenses. Why would we think he could do that here? You think the Twins offense is bad? Go look at the Tigers...

No thanks on the Yankees guy. He may very well be a very good hitting coach, but this extreme analytics approach needs to go. I'd guess he'd be the type they'd hire if they fired Popkins, though. And that's why I'm quite indifferent about firing Popkins. Find it hard to believe they're going to suddenly be willing to change the approach they've had in place since they got here, and built this team around. And if they are going to try to do that I hope the new head Pohlad says "thanks, but no thanks, you're fired" if they go to him with the idea of changing their whole philosophy.

You built your org around that philosophy and you haven't earned the chance to reshape the entire org again. Cashman has rings he can point to that suggest he's worthy of more leash so he can fire a hitting coach and try to switch things up. These guys don't. Don't let the FO throw Popkins, or any of the coaches, under the bus for the severely flawed offensive roster they assembled based on their flawed approach. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure why people seemed to be convinced Nelson Cruz would be a good hitting coach.

That occurred to me too. Supposedly he was Miguel Sano's mentor, and how'd that turn out? (although in this case it might be more on the pupil than the teacher). Also, has Cruz hung up his cleats? Maybe he wants one more kick at the can.

Posted
6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure why people seemed to be convinced Nelson Cruz would be a good hitting coach. He certainly might be, but I have no reason to be convinced of it. That Padres team that just let him go certainly wasn't improved by any of his input over there. The Twins should know him well enough to know what kind of coach he'd be, though. I have very fond memories of him, too, but that doesn't make him a good hitting coach. He clearly knows his swing well, but that doesn't mean he can break down other guy's swings.

I see 1 call for Rowson already, and I'm sure we'll have more on this thread. Confused by that since he's had absolutely horrible offenses since he left. My thing with this offense is that it lacks talent. Rowson's offenses since he left have lacked talent. He wasn't able to turn them into even league average offenses. Why would we think he could do that here? You think the Twins offense is bad? Go look at the Tigers...

No thanks on the Yankees guy. He may very well be a very good hitting coach, but this extreme analytics approach needs to go. I'd guess he'd be the type they'd hire if they fired Popkins, though. And that's why I'm quite indifferent about firing Popkins. Find it hard to believe they're going to suddenly be willing to change the approach they've had in place since they got here, and built this team around. And if they are going to try to do that I hope the new head Pohlad says "thanks, but no thanks, you're fired" if they go to him with the idea of changing their whole philosophy.

You built your org around that philosophy and you haven't earned the chance to reshape the entire org again. Cashman has rings he can point to that suggest he's worthy of more leash so he can fire a hitting coach and try to switch things up. These guys don't. Don't let the FO throw Popkins, or any of the coaches, under the bus for the severely flawed offensive roster they assembled based on their flawed approach. 

I’m not sure Cruz would be a good coach but that’s not what I want him to do. They are distinctly different skills.  I want him to translate, dissect pitchers and simplify.  Popkins is still the coach but Cruz is rich in the exact skills he is lacking. 

I don’t buy the talent argument in the least. Were they performing at an approximate level of career averages this is a 95 win team. One more run a game is top 5 in the league.  That is out there for this team if they get close to career averages.  I’ll even go out on a limb and say this team could go on a Braves or Phillies like run down the stretch.

Full agreement on Rowson. If we should learn anything about this it’s that the 2019 season can be discarded as an outlier. 

Posted
18 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I’m not sure Cruz would be a good coach but that’s not what I want him to do. They are distinctly different skills.  I want him to translate, dissect pitchers and simplify.  Popkins is still the coach but Cruz is rich in the exact skills he is lacking. 

I don’t buy the talent argument in the least. Were they performing at an approximate level of career averages this is a 95 win team. One more run a game is top 5 in the league.  That is out there for this team if they get close to career averages.  I’ll even go out on a limb and say this team could go on a Braves or Phillies like run down the stretch.

Full agreement on Rowson. If we should learn anything about this it’s that the 2019 season can be discarded as an outlier. 

How do you know Cruz is rich in those skills? It's entirely possible that he is, but how would we actually know that? And how do you know Popkins is poor in them?

Who's not performing at career levels outside of Buxton, Correa, and Vazquez? Now 2 of those guys are the most important guys they have, but who else isn't? Jeffers is having his best year. Castro has been better than his career norms. Gallo is doing what Gallo does. Kepler is doing what Kepler does. MAT is slightly below, but not outside a regular dip. Solano is doing what Solano does. Farmer is pretty much doing what he does. Polanco has been hurt. They have a bunch of 7 hole through bench bat guys on the team. Polanco, Buxton, and Correa are the only 3 guys on this team that would've come into this year with a top 6 lineup spot locked up on a contender. The rest of these guys simply aren't that good. And are "performing at an approximate level of career averages." Their 2 most important players have tanked, yes, but the rest of the individual players on this team are playing to the middle of their career norms. This lineup is not that talented.

Posted

Popkins is a scapegoat not the real problem. The real problem (other than Correa which might be Popkins influenced, but he's a big boy making final decisions himself) is health, roster construction, and how it is managed. Bringing in somebody else isn't going to change who Joey Gallo is (which might be someone sort of useful if he weren't on a team filled with whiffers). It's not going to fix Max Kepler. And both of those are lineup regulars blocking potentially better players. A new hitting coach isn't going to give Jorge Polanco healthy hammies, rush Royce a perfect oblique, or bless Byron with instant cures for knees, back, and whatever else is messed up. And a new hitting coach isn't going to get Rocco to stop putting the rally killing duo of CC and BB in the top 4, or keep him from benching some of his best hitters because of leftie pitchers (it's worked out so well, right?).

Address the real problems, and if you need to change coaches (or managers or FO staff), do it in the offseason.

Twins Daily Contributor
Posted

I don't know who should be the new hitting coach. 

But this much I DO know. When

-outcomes are this putrid,

-the manager goes on a rant about how things have to change, and

-the hitters decide not inviting the hitting coach to the hitter's meeting is a potential solution,

it's long past time for a change. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

How do you know Cruz is rich in those skills? It's entirely possible that he is, but how would we actually know that? And how do you know Popkins is poor in them?

Who's not performing at career levels outside of Buxton, Correa, and Vazquez? Now 2 of those guys are the most important guys they have, but who else isn't? Jeffers is having his best year. Castro has been better than his career norms. Gallo is doing what Gallo does. Kepler is doing what Kepler does. MAT is slightly below, but not outside a regular dip. Solano is doing what Solano does. Farmer is pretty much doing what he does. Polanco has been hurt. They have a bunch of 7 hole through bench bat guys on the team. Polanco, Buxton, and Correa are the only 3 guys on this team that would've come into this year with a top 6 lineup spot locked up on a contender. The rest of these guys simply aren't that good. And are "performing at an approximate level of career averages." Their 2 most important players have tanked, yes, but the rest of the individual players on this team are playing to the middle of their career norms. This lineup is not that talented.

Observatory skills and experience.

Buxton, Correa and Vazquez at career norms is worth several wins already. Don't forget Miranda either. He's been so bad we all tried to forget.

Posted

Who knows? 

Twins were not such a lousy hitting team last year, so, let's admit something up front:  They've gone backward.

Question is:  Why?  Or, better yet, how?

Strike outs are the most obvious clue.  They lead the league and are on pace to set a record. 

I know the stats heads don't overrate the value of Ks, but, still, if you go from middle of the pack to the worst ever, something must be going on, right?  Are the players water bottles spiked by an insider?

No real answers.  But, why are the veterans the worst of the worst?  Rookies, I can understand, but the veterans k'ing by the dozen every game?

It's just, it's like a murder mystery> Who murdered the Twins ability to make contact with the baseball?  What happened?

This is an all-time great mystery:  How does a team go from being mediocre at hitting to being one of the all-time worst?

I don't know.  Neither does anyone else.  But whatever Popkins is doing, can I just say this out loud:  It's not working!!

Maybe being cerebral is overrated when it comes to baseball,  He's great at analytics, but all it does is make the Twins hitters overthink it. 

Have some fun, hit the gaddamn baseball and run toward first.  It used to be SOP, but now, for whatever reason, it's swing and miss and go back to the dugout. 

It might be funny, even hilarious if this were a last place team, like the '68 Mets, but no, it's the Twins, in a lousy division, trying to out-lousy the worst teams in the American League and likely succeeding.

Who killed their ability to hit the ball?

Posted

Yes, move on.  We have had many occasions in the past where pitching coaches were changed, why not hitting?  We fire managers, why not coaches.  At a time where we have as many coaches as players we need to get out of the MN nice and move on.  I love the Cruz idea, he not only knows how to hit, he also knows how to communicate and motivate.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Observatory skills and experience.

Buxton, Correa and Vazquez at career norms is worth several wins already. Don't forget Miranda either. He's been so bad we all tried to forget.

Oh come on, observed what? Have you ever heard him talking with other hitters about that stuff? We have no real way of knowing anything at all about his ability to do anything at all when it comes to helping other hitters hit. He may be great at it. He may be horrible. We have literally no way of knowing that.

Vazquez at career norms wouldn't make much of a difference at all. Buxton and Correa, yes. But your claim was that this isn't a talent concern. If the other 10 guys can't make up for 3 guys, one of which is a below average hitter to start with, enough to keep you over .500 when you have a top 3 pitching staff in baseball you have a talent problem. I'm not forgetting Miranda, but he doesn't have "career norms." He's a sophomore hitter who was going to need to make adjustments to the adjustments. Him struggling isn't shocking at all. It happens all the time. This is a flawed offense that lacks significant talent.

Verified Member
Posted

I can't help but recall Tony O's comment about what he told young hitters at spring training--"See ball, hit ball."  I sometimes think we overcomplicate things by filling hitters' minds with a bunch of data that may not make them better hitters.  Easy analytics guys, I am not saying there is not value in information.  I am just saying there may not be value in TOO much information.  Having someone around who has actually been successful at the big league level might be a smart addition for this team.  Blend the old with the new.  

Posted
18 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh come on, observed what? Have you ever heard him talking with other hitters about that stuff? We have no real way of knowing anything at all about his ability to do anything at all when it comes to helping other hitters hit. He may be great at it. He may be horrible. We have literally no way of knowing that.

Vazquez at career norms wouldn't make much of a difference at all. Buxton and Correa, yes. But your claim was that this isn't a talent concern. If the other 10 guys can't make up for 3 guys, one of which is a below average hitter to start with, enough to keep you over .500 when you have a top 3 pitching staff in baseball you have a talent problem. I'm not forgetting Miranda, but he doesn't have "career norms." He's a sophomore hitter who was going to need to make adjustments to the adjustments. Him struggling isn't shocking at all. It happens all the time. This is a flawed offense that lacks significant talent.

I’ll expect that same energy for the Rocco as a powerless puppet crowd.  Meanwhile, I interviewed Nelson over the weekend and it turns out that you’re completely correct. He knows nothing about hitting, talking about hitting or figuring out what a pitcher is up too.  The part about Popkins not having major league experience was on Wikipedia. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I’ll expect that same energy for the Rocco as a powerless puppet crowd.  Meanwhile, I interviewed Nelson over the weekend and it turns out that you’re completely correct. He knows nothing about hitting, talking about hitting or figuring out what a pitcher is up too.  The part about Popkins not having major league experience was on Wikipedia. 

Knowing about hitting and being good helping other people hit well are not the same thing. Popkins knows about hitting. All the major league players on the roster know about hitting. They all know about hitting, can talk about hitting, and figure out what a pitcher is up to. All you're really saying is that Nelson Cruz was a good hitter so you assume he can make other people better. That's not how it works.

The 3 guys performing well below their career norms have all been in the league for 9 years. You don't think they know hitting, talking about hitting, or figuring out what a pitcher is up to? If it takes them more than 9 years to figure out what a pitcher is up to they're probably not ever figuring out what a pitcher is up to.

Posted

I'm really baffled by this entire hitting collapse from the Twins and how it's being handled. The majority seem to be concluding (myself one of them) that there is a systemic problem given the poor performance across the board from the team and some select situational numbers (bases loaded, called third strikes, vs. Lefty pitchers) that are maddeningly consistent. Most of this criticism seems to conclude that their is an approach problem. In this day and age it shouldn't be all that hard to figure out what the approach is from teams performing well in hitting metrics where the Twins are failing. Just mimic that approach seems to be the obvious answer, or at least use it as a counterpoint to adjust the Twins approach. There's gotta be enough available data publicly for even the media and amateur statheads to make some pretty solid conclusions to at least move this team from being inept at hitting to being adequate. With our pitching staff, adequate would allow us to capture this bad division pretty easily I'd think.

So if the approach is the problem....then uhhhh...change it? If it's not, then for god's sake a) change the lineup based on talent / ability to execute / ability to adjust or b) change the coach based the the ability to inspire execution or adjustments. 

This whole "head scratching" reaction from the Twins is kinda nuts. No one on this team deserves the benefit of the doubt. This is a Vikings-level choke on the horizon.

Posted
1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Knowing about hitting and being good helping other people hit well are not the same thing. Popkins knows about hitting. All the major league players on the roster know about hitting. They all know about hitting, can talk about hitting, and figure out what a pitcher is up to. All you're really saying is that Nelson Cruz was a good hitter so you assume he can make other people better. That's not how it works.

The 3 guys performing well below their career norms have all been in the league for 9 years. You don't think they know hitting, talking about hitting, or figuring out what a pitcher is up to? If it takes them more than 9 years to figure out what a pitcher is up to they're probably not ever figuring out what a pitcher is up to.

I never caped up for Nelly, my initial suggestion was Molitor.  You’re getting stuck on the example, not the idea. Of course it has to be the right person, but as the article points out, what are the options available?

Posted
3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure why people seemed to be convinced Nelson Cruz would be a good hitting coach. He certainly might be, but I have no reason to be convinced of it. That Padres team that just let him go certainly wasn't improved by any of his input over there. The Twins should know him well enough to know what kind of coach he'd be, though. I have very fond memories of him, too, but that doesn't make him a good hitting coach. He clearly knows his swing well, but that doesn't mean he can break down other guy's swings.

I see 1 call for Rowson already, and I'm sure we'll have more on this thread. Confused by that since he's had absolutely horrible offenses since he left. My thing with this offense is that it lacks talent. Rowson's offenses since he left have lacked talent. He wasn't able to turn them into even league average offenses. Why would we think he could do that here? You think the Twins offense is bad? Go look at the Tigers...

No thanks on the Yankees guy. He may very well be a very good hitting coach, but this extreme analytics approach needs to go. I'd guess he'd be the type they'd hire if they fired Popkins, though. And that's why I'm quite indifferent about firing Popkins. Find it hard to believe they're going to suddenly be willing to change the approach they've had in place since they got here, and built this team around. And if they are going to try to do that I hope the new head Pohlad says "thanks, but no thanks, you're fired" if they go to him with the idea of changing their whole philosophy.

You built your org around that philosophy and you haven't earned the chance to reshape the entire org again. Cashman has rings he can point to that suggest he's worthy of more leash so he can fire a hitting coach and try to switch things up. These guys don't. Don't let the FO throw Popkins, or any of the coaches, under the bus for the severely flawed offensive roster they assembled based on their flawed approach. 

Bringing in Cruz would be a super move, just not as hitting coach (at this point in his coaching career).  Let's be honest this team hasn't been the same since guys like Rosario, Cruz & Sano have been gone.  No fire, no heart.  Cruz' mere presence in the locker room would help with that.

Posted

One has nothing to do with the other.  Some team is going to give Ohtani $600 Million dollars.  Is there a Twins implication for that?  Maybe we could re-sign Aaron Hicks to a similar deal.  He's a hitter that used to pitch.

Posted

Last night I watched a show where George Brett was interviewed on the facets of hitting. One of the first things he said was, analytics will not help you in an at bat. You have milliseconds to decide to swing and where. See the freakin ball and hit it. Are there any hitting coaches out there that can throw all of the analytical BS out the window and teach that? There should be at least a couple hundred. The philosophy needs to change and that will only happen with a whole new set of people in charge.

Posted

They are too analytical at the plate.   Time to go back to basic "see ball, hit ball".    Sano had his best years when working with Cruz.   If someone can make a productive hitter out of him, imagine what he could do with the rest of the lineup.

Posted
10 hours ago, RJA said:

I can't help but recall Tony O's comment about what he told young hitters at spring training--"See ball, hit ball."  I sometimes think we overcomplicate things by filling hitters' minds with a bunch of data that may not make them better hitters.  Easy analytics guys, I am not saying there is not value in information.  I am just saying there may not be value in TOO much information.  Having someone around who has actually been successful at the big league level might be a smart addition for this team.  Blend the old with the new.  

I heard on a podcast from a devoted NYY fan that they take a player that come into the "Show" hitting like gang busters then they start tinkering with their swing. Then they lose their feel & tank. IMO this have been the Twins approach. I reinerate with you again that experience trumps analytics. Analytics should be there to support not to head. That's where the Twins & Yanks have missed it.

Of course not all experienced good hitters make good coaches but you can look at players that are are good at mentoring while playing. Those are the ones that make good coaches, Ones that come to mind are Cruz & Rich Hill.

I've advocated that Baldelli should have been hired as a bench coach not as the head coach.

Verified Member
Posted

If the Twins let Popkins go in the middle of the season, or before the end of the season...I'd be absolutely shocked. I just can't see it happening. If that were to somehow happen, what's the point of bring in Lawson? I don't think that anything would change over the course of the rest of this season. It's not like turning a light switch, and all of a sudden we'll take better AB's and not strike out every time up. This is the way it's going to be for the rest of this season. After that...who knows?

 

Posted
8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Crazy idea.  Trevor Plouffe.  From his comments when broadcasting he seemed to have some insights on the problems.

EVERYBODY who has ever commented on this site seems to feel they have some insights on the problems.  MOST would not be great hitting coaches.

Posted

The focus on Popkins is missing the point. The FO dictates the hitting philosophy and they create the roster. You can get rid of Popkins but it isn’t going to matter until the FO changes. 

Posted
1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

EVERYBODY who has ever commented on this site seems to feel they have some insights on the problems.  MOST would not be great hitting coaches.

I have no idea if Trevor Plouffe would be a good hitting coach.  However, the difference between him and those who have commented here is that he has actually played MLB. 

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