2023 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Draft Day is finally upon us! You've found the right place to follow the day's events, and you're all invited to be a part of the conversation.

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo

This year’s draft will again feature just 20 rounds. Day 1, which begins tonight at 6 p.m. CT and can be viewed on ESPN and MLB Network, will include the first and second rounds as well as both competitive balance rounds and all compensation rounds. There will be 70 selections total.

The Twins will make three picks tonight, with the first one coming fifth overall in the first round. They will also draft 34th overall in the competitive balance round A and 49th overall in the second round. The draft will continue on Monday with Round 3, beginning at 1 p.m. CT.

We're excited to bring back the Twins Draft Tracker which will be kept up-to-date not only during the draft but through the entire signing period. So keep coming back for updates!

There will be a lot going on during the draft both on and off this website. We will try to make updates to the story (and add links) as things happen, so keep refreshing! Otherwise, there will be plenty of activity in the comments. This is the place to be tonight during the draft!

In the meantime, you can catch up on all of our Twins-related draft content below:

Articles and Profiles
Paul Skenes
Walker Jenkins
Max Clark
Noble Meyer
Rhett Lowder
Jacob Gonzalez
Jacob Wilson
Wyatt Langford
Kyle Teel
Chase Dollander

Twins 10-round Mock Draft

Nygaard Mock Draft v.3

Final Consensus Big Board Update (Print it out, cross players off as they are drafted. You won't find a better resource anywhere on the web.)

Consensus Big Board Profiles: 26-50
Consensus Big Board Profiles: 1-25

View full article

[AlwaysinModeration]

The one thing we know for sure is that the Twins will walk away from today with three picks in a very deep draft.

If they go under slot with their first pick, they should wind up with even stronger picks at 34 and 49.

By the end of the day, how many pitchers and how many prep kids will they have ultimately selected?

How would a:

Dollander - González - Eldridge first day be rated?

[Dave Borton]

Hats off to Twins Daily on all the previews of the draftees - great coverage to all the writers.

db

[terrydactyls]

Every national "last draft" that I've read has Jacob Gonzales as the Twins pick.  I hope he has a lot of unknown talents that we aren't privy to.

[Mike Sixel]

Great coverage. Thank you

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Every national "last draft" that I've read has Jacob Gonzales as the Twins pick.  I hope he has a lot of unknown talents that we aren't privy to.

I'm hoping it's a smokescreen from the Twins to get one of the top five who drops to us to accept a little less money. The Twins have taken a number of high schoolers in the 1st round, Kirilloff and Lewis being two of them. Also hoping the front office doesn't feel pressure to succeed in the next two to three years and take a college hitter just because of that.

[rickyriolo]

Why not Rhett Lowder the pitcher from Wake Forest at 5 ? That pitching duel with Skenes in the World Series was epic

[Hubie29]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Every national "last draft" that I've read has Jacob Gonzales as the Twins pick.  I hope he has a lot of unknown talents that we aren't privy to.

Shades of Levi Michael 2011. Levi who?

[redstorm]

In a year where the Twins luck into the top 5 via the lottery, are they really going to take a player they could have probably gotten at their original draft position? I get all the monetary gymnastics with going under slot at 5 to go over slot at 34 and/or 49 on a player who has fallen, but why take the chance?

[saviking]

Teel ..

[Chris Spencer]

All of the Gonzalez to the Twins buzz is sapping all of my enthusiasm for the draft. Why take a slow descending prospect at 5. Start the new GM search immediately if that happens. 

[Fatbat]

If you arent going to take a top 5, then take a solid college pitcher below slot $$ and get Jacob Wilson to slide to 34 and pay him. He never strikes out. Then grab Carigg at 49.

[Dman]

I think I have done too much reading about this draft as my mind is all over the place with options and ideas about how to handle things at number 5.  The Twins draft team has looked at all the players collected all the data so I have to believe their plan is locked in if the top 4 are taken or if someone goes offboard.  

A couple of things I wonder.  How worrisome is the hip impingement issue with Jenkins?  The kid looks like a tank and has a plus hit tool and plus power.  If he is for real he looks like an all star player to me.  Still Gonzalez's profile isn't all that different with 55 hit and power rating along with a strong arm and he has proven statistical performance at a higher level than Jenkins.  So I can see what the Twins are thinking there especially if they can get a discount and scoop up either some better players or more top 100 players in a deep draft.

Still the back and forth in my mind goes that Jenkins is just in High School his full potential unknown and if he is an elite bat odds are he gets to MLB at a younger age and is a plus defender in right field and probable all star.  It feels like Gonzalez has a more limited ceiling to me but maybe I don't\can't see what the Twins see.  Maybe he does have all star potential but it doesn't seem as likely as it does with Jenkins.  Finally there is high risk with high school players.  Jenkins could be at his full potential now, have issues with his hips or not be able to handle pro pitching.  His floor is far, far lower than Gonzalez.  So again I don't know my brain just kind of hurts thinking about the various scenario's that appear to be in play.

If the Twins are unsure on Jenkins I wonder what it is they don't like about Teel as he is slated to go right after Jenkins in a lot of mocks and has really good offense potential in a league where very few teams get much at the catcher position.  They wouldn't get the discount they would with Gonzalez but if they don't like Jenkins he seems like the next player up IMO.

All I can say is I have no ide what the Twins are gonna do I just hope they find some star players as they need some to compete with the rest of the league.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Something I found interesting in an article by Callis on the draft slots.  Last year 23 of 30 teams exceeded their draft pool (which you can do by up to 5% without losing any picks; it’s simply a financial hit of 75% surcharge on the overage) while the Twins (and Rockies) have NEVER exceeded their draft pool.

This year, with a draft pool of $14.35mm, the Twins could spend an extra $717K this year (which would cost an additional $500K in tax), which is not an insignificant amount.  
 

Essentially, the Twins are purposely shorting themselves some draft capital that almost all other teams are taking advantage of.

[AlwaysinModeration]

4 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The concern about reaching for Gonzalez and trying to save money for our later picks is that instead of getting a potential hall of famer with #5 we may get two or even three good players that may make a few all-star teams.  Which would you rather have?  I'd prefer one hall of famer vs the alternative.  Just my humble opinion.  I will root for the team and the selected players no matter who they are.

To be fair, they are all potential hall of famers.

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Something I found interesting in an article by Callis on the draft slots.  Last year 23 of 30 teams exceeded their draft pool (which you can do by up to 5% without losing any picks; it’s simply a financial hit of 75% surcharge on the overage) while the Twins (and Rockies) have NEVER exceeded their draft pool.

This year, with a draft pool of $14.35mm, the Twins could spend an extra $717K this year (which would cost an additional $500K in tax), which is not an insignificant amount.  
 

Essentially, the Twins are purposely shorting themselves some draft capital that almost all other teams are taking advantage of.

Yup. I've pointed that out before. I agree, they are shorting themselves pool money, all to save a few hundred K in a league where teams flush millions every year. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The concern about reaching for Gonzalez and trying to save money for our later picks is that instead of getting a potential hall of famer with #5 we may get two or even three good players that may make a few all-star teams.  Which would you rather have?  I'd prefer one hall of famer vs the alternative.  Just my humble opinion.  I will root for the team and the selected players no matter who they are.

My exact thoughts. Take a swing at the highest likelihood of an absolute star instead of your best chance at getting another average major leaguer. We know what a team full of average players can do. Struggle to stay at .500 and get swept out of the playoffs. Try to find a star!

[2wins87]

3 hours ago, redstorm said:

In a year where the Twins luck into the top 5 via the lottery, are they really going to take a player they could have probably gotten at their original draft position? I get all the monetary gymnastics with going under slot at 5 to go over slot at 34 and/or 49 on a player who has fallen, but why take the chance?

If the rumors are correct, then they legitimately have Gonzalez in their top 5. They could be wrong, but I think that's still different than just trying to get too cute. 

It's worth noting that most of those mocks that have them passing on Jenkins (or Clark) don't have the A's jumping all over him, so I don't think the consensus of a top five is nearly as strong among teams as it is in the public sphere. They may still be outliers on how much they like Gonzalez, so that is concerning.

Maybe Gonzalez would have fallen to 13 otherwise, but they were still handed a couple extra million dollars to use in their draft pool, and they will use it.  Their evaluations further down the draft board could be equally important.  I'm going to withhold judge.ent until we see their whole draft take shape.

 

[DJL44]

Are there really going to be two guys available at 34 and 49 that would make them want to go several million below slot at #5? Wouldn't they have to be high schoolers?

Quote

I'm hoping it's a smokescreen from the Twins

I don't remember the Twins ever doing a misdirection campaign.

[roger]

Got home this morning and watching my first game in almost two weeks.  Cannot think of when I was as down about this team as I am today. 

Why would anyone get excited about tonight's draft?  Or even care who they pick?  I have 100% confidence that the Twins brain trust will 1)  think they are smarter than everyone else and go thru some draft day gymnastics and screw up who they pick; 2) mismanage those they do pick; and 3) if one of the 21 players picked does turn out to be a great prospect, they will trade him away for an injured pitcher prior to his breaking into the big leagues.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

6 hours ago, rickyriolo said:

Why not Rhett Lowder the pitcher from Wake Forest at 5 ? That pitching duel with Skenes in the World Series was epic

I certainly don't hate this idea at all. Lowder is a very good prospect in his own right, just overshadowed by Skenes. Similar to Langford and Crews.

The two players who are getting overlooked more than anyone right now are Langford and Lowder. In five years, everyone might wonder how that happened.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

5 hours ago, redstorm said:

In a year where the Twins luck into the top 5 via the lottery, are they really going to take a player they could have probably gotten at their original draft position? I get all the monetary gymnastics with going under slot at 5 to go over slot at 34 and/or 49 on a player who has fallen, but why take the chance?

If they take the guy at 5 they could have taken at 13 and spread the extra money to their next two, it'll be like they used the lottery to trade up from 34 and 49 to 20 and 30.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

4 hours ago, Dman said:

A couple of things I wonder.  How worrisome is the hip impingement issue with Jenkins?  The kid looks like a tank and has a plus hit tool and plus power.  If he is for real he looks like an all star player to me. 

This is what it all comes down to for me. Walker Jenkins is exactly the type of player the Twins seem to want. And the fact they seemingly just *don't* doesn't make sense. 

Our resident PT says the injury doesn't seem like something he'd be overly worried about, but having a surgery as a freshman that resulted in him joining swimming because he couldn't put any pressure on his legs seems... major...?

I have no proof or concrete evidence, but if the Twins have the opportunity to and don't draft Jenkins (with the other four gone), I have to think it's cause he's medically red-flagged. Because otherwise it just doesn't add up.

[SoDakTwinsFan]

7 hours ago, rickyriolo said:

Why not Rhett Lowder the pitcher from Wake Forest at 5 ? That pitching duel with Skenes in the World Series was epic

I prefer lowder to dollander and it’s not that close.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I’m sure there’s been a ton of rumor going around Twitter about these scenarios and not all of it is equally based in fact, so I’m cherry-picking one that sounds more promising, but:
https://twitter.com/KyleAGlaser/status/1678060066111647746?s=20

Jenkins at 1-1 would take the one top-5 player who Twins fans seem least excited about off the board, and that … seems good?

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, roger said:

Got home this morning and watching my first game in almost two weeks.  Cannot think of when I was as down about this team as I am today. 

Why would anyone get excited about tonight's draft?  Or even care who they pick?  I have 100% confidence that the Twins brain trust will 1)  think they are smarter than everyone else and go thru some draft day gymnastics and screw up who they pick; 2) mismanage those they do pick; and 3) if one of the 21 players picked does turn out to be a great prospect, they will trade him away for an injured pitcher prior to his breaking into the big leagues.

This was dark.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, Chris Spencer said:

All of the Gonzalez to the Twins buzz is sapping all of my enthusiasm for the draft. Why take a slow descending prospect at 5. Start the new GM search immediately if that happens. 

This.

[Twins33]

Here’s to hoping the Pirates and/or Rangers do something crazy. 
 

The order of players I want: Crews/Skenes/Langford (any), Clark, Jenkins/Lowder (toss up), Teel. 

[jkcarew]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Twins brain trust will 1)  think they are smarter than everyone else and go thru some draft day gymnastics and screw up who they pick; 2) mismanage those they do pick; and 3) if one of the 21 players picked does turn out to be a great prospect, they will trade him away for an injured pitcher prior to his breaking into the big leagues.

This is WILDLY pessimistic.

And only MOSTLY realistic.

[jkcarew]

The odds are not fantastic that you get a needle-mover at any pick.

But the odds are much better taking the best player available at 5, than anything you can do in the 30’s…no matter how you play the money.