Twins Daily Draft Preview: Rhett Lowder

1. Take one of top five

2. Take Lowder

3. Don’t think you’re smarter than everyone else (Cavaco, Sabato, …)

Lowder is a strong prospect with a bright future. The Twins should be ecstatic if they get any of Drews, Skenes, Langford, or Clark. Passing on these guys would be an unwise choice. I'm hoping for Max Clark.

I'm expecting Langford, Crews and Skenes to be gone by #5. Of the HS bats I prefer Clark because he seems to have the best chance to stick in center field. If they are going another route Dollander, Lowder or maybe Meyers would be their top pitching prospect day 1.

If Clark isn't there. I'm not really sold on any one of the next group of talent. But I'd expect a bat at #5.

I do like the idea of taking an accomplished college pitcher w a mid 90’s fastball and plus secondary pitch who is almost major league ready. Lowder and Dollander fit that description, though Dollander’s mediocre season has seen him slide on mock drafts. However, take the player with the highest upside and a track record who has more than just power. No more Sabatos please, one dimensional base cloggers who hit .220 and strike out 40% of the time. We already have those guys in the bigs. I’m guessing they will take a college bat like Jacob Gonzalez or Kyle Teel, assuming the top three are gone and they are not sold on Clark or Jenkins.

Skenes is the only pitcher I take at #5 if he's there and if he is, I dash to the podium.  It really comes down to Clark, Jenkins or possibly Teel if Crews, Skenes and Wyatt Langford are gone.  At this point I've heard a lot to like about Max Clark.  Jenkins is an eyelash behind Clark and recent commentary about Teel (and the fact that he's a catcher that hits LH) and is a pretty darn good hitter to boot leads me to believe the decision will come down to Clark, Teel or Jenkins.  

Right now our pitching is great and our hitting is atrocious.  But MLB drafts take at least 2-3 years to have any impact on the major league roster.  We could be without Sonny Gray, Maeda and Mahle in 2024.  Skenes could have an immediate impact but I'm not sure about Lowder or Dollander.  They could each be 2025 kind of guys.  

I’d be just fine with Lowder or Dollander at 5. Skenes would be a dream that has almost no chance of happening. How “safe” does the front office want to draft since it’s unlikely to pick this high in the near future. A high school bat is 4-5 years away from impact vs. a college pitcher thats as close as 2 years. My view of drafting talent would first and always be the best talent that is closest to impact a need.  If a future superstar is available at #5, you have to take that chance! This draft seems to have at least 30 surefire stars.  Some 2 years away, some 5. Every pick has a risk but the 5th overall is only risky if they decide to do something weird. 

17 hours ago, RJA said:

 And, they haven’t really developed any of their drafted pitchers other than Ober for the rotation. I like Lowder but I don’t think they will draft him. 

Are we just going to ignore Varland, Winder, Jax (selected by previous management, developed under their leadership) - Petty Hajjar and Povich who all performed well enough to be traded for good assets - Priellip is a bit of question mark although twins thnk farther along than they expected and then Matthews and Lewis are far outperforming.   For the amount of capital invested in pitching in the draft, the Twins have far outperformed expectations under current managements leadership.  I think the current concern is the current lack of contact by the current team.  However yesterdays game, was more of an out of this world defense than anything.  Easily could have had 2-3 more runs in a smaller ball park or with not elite defense in centerfield, the robbed hit of Buxton and what would have been a homer by Castro in 15 other parks.  

18 hours ago, Otwins said:

Lowder is a solid pick and close to mlb ready. They could do a lot worse. I do not know much about Clark. Crews looks to me like Austin Martin so I am not as high on him as most people. Skenes and Langford look to me like the top two.  They both should be gone by the fifth pick and if they are I would be fine with Lowder. 

Crews has a lot more pop in his bat and is a lot faster and better defensively than Martin. He's a legit centerfielder with all five tools. Martin was a utility guy with a high avg and obp, but didn't profile as a great defender anywhere and didn't have the power in college Crews does.  

Really hard to evaluate Clark. Lowder profiles as a high floor type guy for sure. 

I think I would take Teel over Lowder. It's easier to get a #3/4 starter through other means than it is to get a left handed hitting athletic catcher with pop...

The problem with Teel is that the Twins like to platoon their catchers because of the wear and tear of the position. So even if he's an elite batter then he's only adding field value 60% of the time.

I watched his at bats in the NCAA tourney and wasn't overwhelmed (compared to Crews and Langford). 

Lowder's command and movement is exceptional. I would take one of the top five but Lowder's pitchability reminds me of how Nola was at LSU.

37 minutes ago, RJA said:

Our current rotation has one pitcher who was drafted by the Twins—Ober  Varland and Winder have yet to prove themselves. Jax as you know is not in the rotation. But, my basic point is that the Twins have not drafted college hitters in the first round and traded them for pitching. Who besides Rooker was traded  for pitching?  That statement in the article is simply not correct. As I noted, Petty, Hajjar and Povich were traded for pitching, not hitters. 

The reasoning is we can flip hitters for pitching,  which we flipped Arreaz.  As to 1st round,  who cares if its first round or not,  they are going with the law of averages, and to have both Steer and CES used in a trade even if I disagreed with it,  is a valid claim.  I don't get excluding 1st rounders as a valid argument.  Yes a couple of the 1st rounders haven't panned out,  but a majority have big league talent,  it is just needing to show their full potential on the field. 

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

I think I would take Teel over Lowder. It's easier to get a #3/4 starter through other means than it is to get a left handed hitting athletic catcher with pop...

Its easier to get a league average Catcher than it is to get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher.  Ultimately the ceiling of each greatly changes the value.  If you only see Lowder as a #3/#4 I think you are drastically undercutting his potential.  

Lowder has grown on me. I still think they should take one of the top 5, but wouldn’t hate it if they picked Lowder. 

On 7/3/2023 at 7:17 PM, RJA said:

I am not quite sure what point you are making. I think you need to read what I said more carefully as you are not getting what I said. Have a good day. 

RJA I get exactly what you are saying.  However your parameters are so restrictive it takes away of the overall strategy of what the Twins have done.  The other is the depth of the Twins pitching staff and in the minors should make it less necessary for the Twins to make multiple trades for pitching in the future.