2023 Twins 10-round Mock Draft

I think all the picks from "B" onward are excellent and make a ton of sense.

Absolutely no way they should even consider Gonzalez at #5. Not only is he not even close to being worth that high of a selection, but just because a couple of teams have had success playing the under-slot and save for later game doesn't mean it's going to work out the way the Twins want this year.

And then you've gone and blown a chance for a potential difference maker at 5 after winning the draft lottery.

I'd fire them before they could make the 2nd pick if they did this.

This is what KLAW says he's hearing, right? UGGGGGHHHHH.

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

IF they are going under slot, I would hope for about 8 or 10 other guys before Gonzalez. Why not Chase Davis or one of the next level of college pitchers (Dollander, Lowder, Waldrep) or Tommy Troy or Kyle Teel? All of them are vastly more exciting than Gonzalez in my opinion, and all would still come with a bit of a discount right?

And it isn't close. They all have more UPSIDE, which is what you take at pick 5. 

15 minutes ago, Dman said:

There is a fair bit of buzz going around about the Twins grabbing Gonzalez but he has been dropping in mocks like crazy. I know he is a model darling and started the year as the number 3 pick but Several mocks have him in the lower 20's now.  If they want him that bad why not take one of the top 5 and see if they will give them at least a $500,000 discount and use some of the the money from their second round pick to get Gonzalez with the Supplemental 1st round pick with money in the 20's range? 

If he goes to early to pull that off then just use the extra money for other players down the line or grab a comparable player that dropped. Not sure why they have to be so fixated on Gonzalez unless they do feel he is an under appreciated elite bat.  If they can't get one of the top five to take a slight discount how about grabbing Teel or Lowder and trying the same thing.  I just think Gonzalez might fall far enough to do that. and if not there are lot's good hitters and pitchers in the top 50 picks this year.

I like the bat and player but he runs almost as slow as a catcher rated at 40.  When picking top 5 shouldn't you try and get players that can hit and run and as close to 5 tool as possible?  It just feels a bit empty to go that route but I get that it would be nice to have that extra 1.5M to grab a first round pitcher in the 3rd round.  Maybe it all works out well but if they end up passing on a super star high school player they are gonna have a tough time explaining how they messed up at pick number 5. 

I will say that whatever model they are using it seems to work pretty well for college hitters.  last years class of Lee, Schobel, Ross, Ortega, Cossetti and you could argue the older Schuffield all look like quality bats. The year before they drafted CES late and he turned out well too. So they must be dong something right.  The thing is they can't seem to find guys with speed which as we have seen this year can be very helpful as well in certain situations.

I know so little my opinion likely doesn't matter but I just hope they are gonna find some stars in this deep draft because we need some.

I don't know......they have one actual position player that can hit and field on the MLB roster after 6 + years that they drafted. And I'm not sure if AK can really hit or not.....and Lewis, but he's never healthy. neither was a college bat. Until one of these guys actually makes it and plays well, I'm skeptical. 

1 minute ago, Dman said:

I think you can add Steer to the list he has an .800 OPS for the Reds.  Brent Rooker has an 800 OPS and is in the All Star game granted  he has fallen like a stone since the beginning of the season still it is success at the MLB level.  Jullien looks like a keeper.  Larnach still a work in progress but would like to see him for one full healthy season to see what he has. Wallner they haven't really given him his shot yet and CES looks like on of the best bats at AAA. granted that might not translate but he has been exceptional at every level so far.

Maybe no super stars in that group although Lewis has a chance to get there if he can stay healthy but he was a high school pick.  I think some more college bats are going to get there ( Lee, Schobel Cossetti).  Still High school and INTL picks seem to have had the highest upside but also the greatest risk for failure.

I will say I agree with you that they lacked super high impact players and tend to cultivate good solid players and agree they need to find some elite players.  That is hopefully what you find at pick number 5.

I like all those players...but Julien can't field. Wallner and Larnach, despite their ages, are sitting in AAA not playing. Rooker? One good month isn't changing my mind (and I hated the pick, not a fan of bat only players that high). 

Lee and Schobel look legit, but they need to be promoted, IMO. I had high hopes Lee would give them their first healthy helium guy but he's been very good, but not great. 

They've had some awful high picks the last few years......if they go with a guy that might be available at 34 with pick 5, I'll rip them left and right.....

11 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Wow, I'd love to read everyone's scouting notes from all the times they've seen Gonzalez and the dozen or so other players that they are so confident are better than him.

Ok, snark aside, I can't say I would love the pick either, but I have zero confidence that I know what I'm talking about, and only a small amount of confidence that the public consensus might actually nail this draft class.  

I like the contact and zone control in his profile, and a lefty hitting SS/3B is pretty rare as a type, so it would be pretty easy to find him a good right handed backup if he does develop into that role.  I have to think that they see some mechanical tweaks to add more damage to his swing.

I just can't really figure out exactly what their model would love so much about him if those reports are true.  If they do take him, I will be patient, but if Gonzalez isn't a top prospect knocking on the door within two years time, I think it's fair to criticize.  I do think this front office does plenty of things well, but I don't think they've shown that amateur scouting is really one of those things.

I don't get your first line? It is awfully appeal to authority and basically says that 90% of what this site is for is not right? 

Outside maybe three people here, I doubt anyone has scouted these guys....

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

Fangraphs feels the same way you do as they have Gonzalez rated #35.  This is some of what they have to say about him.

"His level of statistical performance is rare and Gonzalez will barely be 21 on draft day, but his swing has a huge hole at the top of the zone that I fear will be exploited in pro ball. He hasn't become meaningfully stronger during his time at Ole Miss (in fact, he's regressed a little bit as an athlete) and often needs to wind up his whole body to swing hard, making mechanical concessions in the process. It's a more extreme version of the issues JJ Bleday would eventually be exposed by, and Bleday's SEC performance was also a red herring. There's volatility here. Gonzalez has some premium skills and baseball feel, and he was an exceptional college performer, but he doesn't pass the eye test. He's arguably young enough to improve upon his athleticism and strength as a pro, and I think he needs to do so if he's going to be more than a utilityman."

Not saying they are 100% right about him but there are plenty of red flags in his profile.  Is this a guy (possible utility player) you take at number 5 overall?.  I will say his eye at the plate seems to be something the Twins really value and I guess you can see why given how the MLB team has performed. It is possible they can get him to more power as well but if he can't hit balls at the top of the zone that is going to be a serious problem.

In fairness, FG and this site and sometimes MLB or CBS are where I get my info....so I'm likely to agree with FG.

To me, it isn't that he might not be good, it's that his ceiling isn't worth number 5, and you MIGHT be able to get him at their second pick the way he's falling. The big part of that write up is that he hasn't gotten better each year, or even close. That's a huge red flag to me.