Twins Daily Draft Preview: Walker Jenkins

Dman · July 6, 2023

I just don't know a ton about Jenkins and for me I need him to be a better version of ERodriguez, Rosario, or JRodriguez as they have good power bats and project to left and right field. Granted his speed and arm might be a bit better than Rosario and JRodriguez and maybe his bat ends up elite hard to say.

He doesn't fit a huge need for me and I know that defies BPA. I also feel like he has the least buzz of the top 5. Still a big guy with strike zone control and compact swing that might be elite is the upside you want at number 5. Seems like he has been mentioned everywhere except the number 1 spot and he is consensus top 5. With him having high character I assume the Twins will grab him at number 5 if he is the player that falls. Granted I know the least about him out of the top five but he seems like the least desired of the top 5 options to me.

Still I believe most of the Twins superstar players started out of high school and the top players in high school get identified early. He probably is the pick they should make but will have to wait and see how things shake out.

Mike Sixel · July 6, 2023

Klaw still believes in him, from what I can tell. Any of the top five works for me, along with Teel, Lowder, or dollander.....

Cory Engelhardt · July 6, 2023

I'm hoping for one of Crews/Langford/Skenes to fall to 5, but otherwise Clark or Jenkins would be great. I don't really want to reach too much, and his bat/potential is very exciting.

DocBauer · July 6, 2023

I have nothing against Jenkins at #5 at all. He's got a powerful bat but reportedly good bat to ball skills as well. He runs above average for a big kid...still growing some I'd guess...and has a good arm. What's not to like? I keep thinking Kirilloff with a stronger arm? His profile as a HS senior just reminds me a lot of AK.

He hasn't been a favorite choice of mine simply because we have a lot of young corner OF bats in A ball but I feel we're short of future CF types that have real bat potential. That's why I'm so high on Langford or Clark as they fit BPA AND need.

There are a couple arms, and maybe Teel, that are legitimately worthy of top 10 status. And a couple might be top 5 in other drafts. But you should never turn down TOP talent. And I still think the best choice is to grab one of the top 5, whoever it may be, and celebrate your selection.

Doctor Gast · July 6, 2023

I really like Jenkins for the reasons you mentioned but I really believe he won't stick at CF. We really don't need another LH cOF bat, so I lean towards Keel (C) over him.

Beast · July 6, 2023

I have no info, obviously, but get the feeling that he’s the one that’ll be left at 5.

If he’s there, I’d have no problem with taking him (although he’s my least favorite of the 5).

People have to realize, this is an 18 year old kid. We’re talking 4-5 years until he sniffs a cup of coffee in the majors. You cannot draft (or not draft) kids like this based on positional need. We have no clue what that need will be in 4-5 years. Remember 2-3 years ago when we had the most epic logjam in the OF in MLB history? Some of those guys left, some of them have been hurt, some have been terrible, some have moved to 1B…..passing on an 18 year old based on the fact that we currently have Matt Wallner, ERod, Mercedes, and Urbina in the system is ludicrous. It’s more likely that none of them turn into good MLB players vs. we don’t have room for them all on the MLB roster.

chpettit19 · July 6, 2023

Jenkins is also 5th on my list of top 5 guys, and I'd prefer Clark because of his ability to stay in CF. I'm not sure if Jenkins will be able to or not, but I'm quite positive Clark will. Crews is my preference over Langford because I also don't think Langford is a CFer in the pros (he's fast, but does not read balls well). But I take Jenkins if he's there.

Along the lines of what @Beast said, I don't care even a tiny bit about organizational "need." The organization needs talent. It's that simple to me. If these 5 guys are truly the 5 most talented, and would all come in as the likely #1 prospect in the system from day 1, you have to take one of them. I don't care if the Twins have 75 lefty hitting corner outfielders in the organization if none of them are as good as Jenkins. Accumulate the most talent you can and go from there.

It'd definitely be more desirable for Jenkins to be a sure fire CFer, but if he's Juan Soto, or Barry Bonds, or Christian Yelich (the MVP years), or Larry Walker, or "pick your favorite lefty cOF" why do we care? If he's the highest ceiling player left at 5 take him. I don't care about bonus pool manipulation, "organizational need," what hand he hits with, or anything else. Take the highest ceiling player available at #5. If that's Jenkins I'll be happy and start watching our new #1 prospect on MiLB.tv as soon as they get him signed and in uniform.

jmlease1 · July 6, 2023

49 minutes ago, Beast said:

People have to realize, this is an 18 year old kid. We’re talking 4-5 years until he sniffs a cup of coffee in the majors. You cannot draft (or not draft) kids like this based on positional need. We have no clue what that need will be in 4-5 years. Remember 2-3 years ago when we had the most epic logjam in the OF in MLB history? Some of those guys left, some of them have been hurt, some have been terrible, some have moved to 1B…..passing on an 18 year old based on the fact that we currently have Matt Wallner, ERod, Mercedes, and Urbina in the system is ludicrous. It’s more likely that none of them turn into good MLB players vs. we don’t have room for them all on the MLB roster.

This. It's the biggest difference between the MLB draft and the NBA/NFL drafts. there's almost always 2-4 years of development time even for top picks. Joe Mauer is one of the greatest prospects in Twins history and he still spent 280 games in the minors before debuting at age 21. Jenkins looks like a great prospect (I think I like Max Clark better of the two HS kids, but I'm basing this on my opinion of the aggregation of public evaluations of others, so...wtf do I really know?) but he's likely to need 3-4 years before he gets serious consideration for the MLB club. By then, who knows what the OF looks like? We might be clamoring for a LH platoon bat to pair with Kala'i Rosario in RF by then.

there still seems to be a consensus top 5 and Jenkins is in there, so I'm good with picking him at #5 if he's there.

Jocko87 · July 6, 2023

1 hour ago, Beast said:

I have no info, obviously, but get the feeling that he’s the one that’ll be left at 5.

If he’s there, I’d have no problem with taking him (although he’s my least favorite of the 5).

People have to realize, this is an 18 year old kid. We’re talking 4-5 years until he sniffs a cup of coffee in the majors. You cannot draft (or not draft) kids like this based on positional need. We have no clue what that need will be in 4-5 years. Remember 2-3 years ago when we had the most epic logjam in the OF in MLB history? Some of those guys left, some of them have been hurt, some have been terrible, some have moved to 1B…..passing on an 18 year old based on the fact that we currently have Matt Wallner, ERod, Mercedes, and Urbina in the system is ludicrous. It’s more likely that none of them turn into good MLB players vs. we don’t have room for them all on the MLB roster.

I agree with ignoring organizational need when drafting a high schooler. 4 years is a long time. However, If we were in the 2 hole of this draft facing a choice of Skenes and Langford, organizational needs does come into play between the two. You could also argue for each as the higher need so in this case it’s back to BPA, risk tolerance etc. That pick profiles as 18 months away and is instantly in the plans.

JoeCool · July 6, 2023

Best player available. Clark, Skenes, Jenkins, Langford or Crews. If any of those five are available it would be foolish to pass on them for someone like Teel or Dollander.

I really hope the front office does not get too cute on this draft. A top 5 pick with this type of talent available is not worth passing on. This under slot value stuff would be foolish.

Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis were very solid picks. I hope the front office gets the best player available. We can always trade for a need of stuck with a surplus.

Dman · July 6, 2023

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Jenkins is also 5th on my list of top 5 guys, and I'd prefer Clark because of his ability to stay in CF. I'm not sure if Jenkins will be able to or not, but I'm quite positive Clark will. Crews is my preference over Langford because I also don't think Langford is a CFer in the pros (he's fast, but does not read balls well). But I take Jenkins if he's there.

Along the lines of what @Beast said, I don't care even a tiny bit about organizational "need." The organization needs talent. It's that simple to me. If these 5 guys are truly the 5 most talented, and would all come in as the likely #1 prospect in the system from day 1, you have to take one of them. I don't care if the Twins have 75 lefty hitting corner outfielders in the organization if none of them are as good as Jenkins. Accumulate the most talent you can and go from there.

It'd definitely be more desirable for Jenkins to be a sure fire CFer, but if he's Juan Soto, or Barry Bonds, or Christian Yelich (the MVP years), or Larry Walker, or "pick your favorite lefty cOF" why do we care? If he's the highest ceiling player left at 5 take him. I don't care about bonus pool manipulation, "organizational need," what hand he hits with, or anything else. Take the highest ceiling player available at #5. If that's Jenkins I'll be happy and start watching our new #1 prospect on MiLB.tv as soon as they get him signed and in uniform.

I agree with pretty much everything you said but the thing we don't know is the end result. Consensus is all fine and dandy but it doesn't guarantee players work out as expected. Jenkins is the 5th best player in this draft until he isn't. Lot's of players get hyped and don't work out in the end.

Jenkins had some questions about a hip impingement issue and questions about a potential swing path issue with handling balls up in the zone that might stop him from becoming an elite player or they might not matter it is hard to say. Still there are questions as there are with every player that will be drafted.

So far pretty much every outlet has the same top 5 in various orders so the top 5 consensus hasn't changed in last three to 4 months. It is the power\hit combo that had Jenkins ahead of Clark in most early mocks but that seems to be changing now with Jenkins being slower and more believers that Clark can hit for enough power.

I feel pretty confident that Jenkins lines up with what the Twins like in a hitter and his makeup likely seals the deal. The more I look on the draft writeup's the belief is he has an All Star caliber hitting profile. I don't have a problem if they take him but sure would have loved the power righty college bats or a sure thing up the middle center fielder. Hopefully he is a Langford or Crews type bat in a few years time.

I still like Teel but catcher is such a tough injury prone position it seems the risk there might be higher than Jenkins and the same with going any pitcher not named Skenes. I think you are right best bet is stick with the top 5. They all seem to be good choices.

Roaddog · July 6, 2023

In a perfect world, Langford is who I want. After that Jenkins, Clark, and Meyer wouldn't upset me

chpettit19 · July 6, 2023

16 minutes ago, Dman said:

I  agree with pretty much everything you said but the thing we don't know is the end result.  Consensus is all fine and dandy but it doesn't guarantee players work out as expected.  Jenkins is the 5th best player in this draft until he isn't.  Lot's of players get hyped and don't work out in the end.

Jenkins had some questions about a hip impingement issue and questions about a potential swing path issue with handling balls up in the zone that might stop him from becoming an elite player or they might not matter it is hard to say.  Still there are questions as there are with every player that will be drafted.

So far pretty much every outlet has the same top 5 in various orders so the top 5 consensus hasn't changed in last three to 4 months.  It is the power\hit combo that had Jenkins ahead of Clark in most early mocks but that seems to be changing now with Jenkins being slower and more believers that Clark can hit for enough power.

I feel pretty confident that Jenkins lines up with what the Twins like in a hitter and his makeup likely seals the deal. The more I look on the draft writeup's the belief is he has an All Star caliber hitting profile. I don't have a problem if they take him but sure would have loved the power righty college bats or a sure thing up the middle center fielder. Hopefully he is a Langford or Crews type bat in a few years time.

I still like Teel but catcher is such a tough injury prone position it seems the risk there might be higher than Jenkins and the same with going any pitcher not named Skenes. I think you are right best bet is stick with the top 5. They all seem to be good choices.

Oh, for sure. At the end of the day it's all a crap shoot. And we're all going off what we read, since, as far as I know, there's not many actual MLB scouts roaming these threads daily. My concern with the Twins is that they seem to be very much model driven. As in data over human scouts. And their model seems to heavily favor college bats (they've as much as admitted this). I was also in a Q&A with Levine a couple years ago where he talked about their belief that finding impact bats was harder later on so they go that way early in the draft. This combination leads to less athletic guys with big college exit velo numbers (Wallner, Rooker, Sabato, Larnach types) that have a naturally lower ceiling as an overall player.

Jenkins isn't as fast as the other 3 top bats, but he's still getting mostly 55 grade evaluations on his future speed from what I've seen. If the Twins model is spitting out Jacob Gonzalez (as some rumors have suggested) as the likely BPA at #5 it seems to me like the model should be thrown out. I'd definitely prefer Crews or Langford, followed by Clark, but I'll take Jenkins (or at least the profiles I keep reading on him) over anyone outside the top 5. Him being ranked well doesn't guarantee him anything, but when basically every source you can find says there's a top 5 followed by a drop off, and you're picking #5, I just don't want them "getting cute," as has become the phrase used around here.

Take a big swing. I have no problem with a team taking a big swing on a consensus top pick, and that pick not working out. I have a huge problem with a team passing on a consensus top 5 talent for a lower talent, and then that guy not working out. Even if they saved money for a better pick at 34 or 49. I want stars. This team needs stars. Not DH, or no defense corner bat, stars. True stars. The top 4 bats all get pretty much universal "star upside" grades. Take the star upside guy. Teel sounds like his ceiling is "really nice player." I don't want that with pick 5. I want "perennial all star." Go big or go home.

To me, this is the baseball gods testing the FO. "We blessed you with a massive jump in the inaugural draft lottery. We gave you 5 guys with pick 1-1 upside, and put you in the 5th spot. Don't slap us in the face by taking Jacob Gonzalez."

tony&rodney · July 6, 2023

I'm still for Clark or surely one of the top five, but Arjun Nimmala is more interesting than Teel, Dollander, or Gonzalez.

Dman · July 6, 2023

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, for sure. At the end of the day it's all a crap shoot. And we're all going off what we read, since, as far as I know, there's not many actual MLB scouts roaming these threads daily. My concern with the Twins is that they seem to be very much model driven. As in data over human scouts. And their model seems to heavily favor college bats (they've as much as admitted this). I was also in a Q&A with Levine a couple years ago where he talked about their belief that finding impact bats was harder later on so they go that way early in the draft. This combination leads to less athletic guys with big college exit velo numbers (Wallner, Rooker, Sabato, Larnach types) that have a naturally lower ceiling as an overall player.

Jenkins isn't as fast as the other 3 top bats, but he's still getting mostly 55 grade evaluations on his future speed from what I've seen. If the Twins model is spitting out Jacob Gonzalez (as some rumors have suggested) as the likely BPA at #5 it seems to me like the model should be thrown out. I'd definitely prefer Crews or Langford, followed by Clark, but I'll take Jenkins (or at least the profiles I keep reading on him) over anyone outside the top 5. Him being ranked well doesn't guarantee him anything, but when basically every source you can find says there's a top 5 followed by a drop off, and you're picking #5, I just don't want them "getting cute," as has become the phrase used around here.

Take a big swing. I have no problem with a team taking a big swing on a consensus top pick, and that pick not working out. I have a huge problem with a team passing on a consensus top 5 talent for a lower talent, and then that guy not working out. Even if they saved money for a better pick at 34 or 49. I want stars. This team needs stars. Not DH, or no defense corner bat, stars. True stars. The top 4 bats all get pretty much universal "star upside" grades. Take the star upside guy. Teel sounds like his ceiling is "really nice player." I don't want that with pick 5. I want "perennial all star." Go big or go home.

To me, this is the baseball gods testing the FO. "We blessed you with a massive jump in the inaugural draft lottery. We gave you 5 guys with pick 1-1 upside, and put you in the 5th spot. Don't slap us in the face by taking Jacob Gonzalez."

Nice post!! I am not as good a writer as you are but that was a great read. Thanks!

tarheeltwinsfan · July 7, 2023

If Jenkins can hit, as the unbiased experts say, and if he has good character traits which compare to those of to Royce Lewis, and if he is available at #5 and if 1) Crews, 2) Skenes, 3) Langford and 4) Clark have been selected, please select Jenkins.

Fatbat · July 7, 2023

What are the odds that Jenkins is a perineal all star vs. any of the other top 13 prospects? With this being a deep draft, it may end up that the whole top 30 are solid MLB’rs. I’d be happy with Jenkins in our farm system! Hopefully for no longer than 3 years when he gets the call to be on the varsity squad. I still think that signing pool $$$ is going to shake up the top 10 somehow.

TopGunn#22 · July 7, 2023

I think the consensus here is not to overthink this and just take whoever is left at #5, whether that is Max Clark, Walker Jenkins or even Paul Skenes. If the Twins just stick with the conventional logic, they should end up with a great prospect.

The idea that we might take someone OTHER than one of the top 5 rated players in a bid to save money for a guy who falls to #34 though is misguided. The Twins already have a BOATLOAD of money. Over $14 million dollars to sign their draft class. They could pick any of those top 5 players, pay them whatever the slot is and have PLENTY of money left to go over slot on their next 2 picks if the right player/players fell to them.

The Twins are really in a GREAT spot here. They are picking 5th in a draft that has been analyzed as a 5 player draft at the top. They have over $14 million to work with and they have two more picks within the top 50. DON'T SCREW THIS UP! This is a golden opportunity to restock our minor league system with some great talent/potential. Personally, I'd love to get Skenes at #5. That's highly unlikely. But I'd be very happy with either Clark or Jenkins at #5. I lean toward Clark only because he's a pure CF and I have a grandson named Max.

TNtwins85 · July 7, 2023

On 7/6/2023 at 11:17 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'm hoping for one of Crews/Langford/Skenes to fall to 5, but otherwise Clark or Jenkins would be great. I don't really want to reach too much, and his bat/potential is very exciting.

Exactly! I really hope they don’t get cute with this pick. If any of these top 5 are there regardless if they are college or HS they’ve gotta take them! Unless it’s one of dollander or Lowder. Royce seems to be a good player but still waiting on that cost savings that went to Landon Leach and Blayne Enlow to come to fruition. I know 20/20 hindsight but let’s just take one of those top 5-8 guys and move on to the next pick please.

TNtwins85 · July 7, 2023

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, for sure. At the end of the day it's all a crap shoot. And we're all going off what we read, since, as far as I know, there's not many actual MLB scouts roaming these threads daily. My concern with the Twins is that they seem to be very much model driven. As in data over human scouts. And their model seems to heavily favor college bats (they've as much as admitted this). I was also in a Q&A with Levine a couple years ago where he talked about their belief that finding impact bats was harder later on so they go that way early in the draft. This combination leads to less athletic guys with big college exit velo numbers (Wallner, Rooker, Sabato, Larnach types) that have a naturally lower ceiling as an overall player.

Jenkins isn't as fast as the other 3 top bats, but he's still getting mostly 55 grade evaluations on his future speed from what I've seen. If the Twins model is spitting out Jacob Gonzalez (as some rumors have suggested) as the likely BPA at #5 it seems to me like the model should be thrown out. I'd definitely prefer Crews or Langford, followed by Clark, but I'll take Jenkins (or at least the profiles I keep reading on him) over anyone outside the top 5. Him being ranked well doesn't guarantee him anything, but when basically every source you can find says there's a top 5 followed by a drop off, and you're picking #5, I just don't want them "getting cute," as has become the phrase used around here.

Take a big swing. I have no problem with a team taking a big swing on a consensus top pick, and that pick not working out. I have a huge problem with a team passing on a consensus top 5 talent for a lower talent, and then that guy not working out. Even if they saved money for a better pick at 34 or 49. I want stars. This team needs stars. Not DH, or no defense corner bat, stars. True stars. The top 4 bats all get pretty much universal "star upside" grades. Take the star upside guy. Teel sounds like his ceiling is "really nice player." I don't want that with pick 5. I want "perennial all star." Go big or go home.

To me, this is the baseball gods testing the FO. "We blessed you with a massive jump in the inaugural draft lottery. We gave you 5 guys with pick 1-1 upside, and put you in the 5th spot. Don't slap us in the face by taking Jacob Gonzalez."

I’m of the same thinking here. Swing for the stars! I wouldn’t be disappointed at all if Jacob Gonzalez became a star and Jenkins doesn’t. As long as we went for it when we had a shot. I was never upset over kohl Stewart. I was only upset at how we handled him in the minors and majors. But at least we went for it when we had the shot.

Twins33 · July 9, 2023

My least favorite of the five, but I hope they take him if he’s what’s left. My preference is any of the top three and then I like Clark miles better than Jenkins.

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