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Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the fifth pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.
Who is He?
Chase Dollander is currently ranked as the 7th overall prospect on the latest edition of the Consensus Big Board.
Dollander is a 6' 3", 195-pound right-handed pitcher from Tennessee. After spending his freshman season at Georgia Southern (and striking out nearly 12 per nine innings), Dollander transferred to Tennessee and went 10-0. He struck out 108 in 79 innings (12.3 K/9) and only walked 13 batters. He entered the off-season as the top pitching prospect and possibly the top overall prospect.
But in 2023 Dollander looked much more human. He was 7-6 and his ERA increased from 2.39 to 4.96. His strikeout numbers were similar (12.1 K/9), but he walked twice as many batters (from 1.5 to 3.0 BB/9). He was much more hittable (WHIP increased from 0.797 to 1.270) and gave up twice as many home runs. If he didn't have the near-perfect 2022 to lean on, Dollander's "stuff" still probably gets him drafted on Day 1 in 2023. But who Dollander was in 2023 was not the best pitcher in college baseball.
According to JD Cameron:
QuoteDollander has a smooth, repeatable three quarters operation with an extremely quick arm. His fastball has deception and ride and sits in the mid 90s, touching 99mph. Dollander also features a plus sweeping slider that sits in the mid 80s, a changeup and curveball which are currently a smidge above average.
Why the Twins Will Draft Him
It's extremely difficult to acquire a top-of-the-line starting pitcher.
If the Twins were dead-set on adding a pitcher - and nothing indicates they are - Dollander would be a top-four option after Paul Skenes is selected. The upside on Dollander is significant. He's got an overpowering fastball, multiple breaking balls, and a change-up; all of which project to be usable in the big leagues.
Dollander would likely become the club's highest-ranked starting pitching prospect when you consider risk and proximity to the major leagues. He also would likely appear on the back half of some Top 100 lists. You could do worse than giving yourself a top pitching prospect, right?
Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
Dollander's stock has dropped since the Twins' stroke of lottery luck.
The Twins are suckers for sliders and Dollander's has regressed. It's totally within the realm of possibilities that the Twins could tinker with his mechanics and get the 2022 version of Dollander back, but in the world of "what have you done for me lately?" there are other college pitchers, specifically, that have done a lot more than Dollander has.
And as the saying goes, "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect."
What do you think? Would you take Dollander if you were making the call?
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