Twins Daily Draft Preview: Chase Dollander

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Chase Dollander is a name that many Twins fans began to familiarize themselves with when they were fortunate enough to make a leap up in the lottery. At that time, Dollander was considered the top pitching prospect. Also at that time, fans were far less concerned with the Twins lineup and the hitters in the system than they were with a suspect starting rotation.

Image courtesy of Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel

Over the next two weeks, we're going to be providing you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the fifth pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. 

Who is He?
Chase Dollander is currently ranked as the 7th overall prospect on the latest edition of the Consensus Big Board. 

Dollander is a 6' 3", 195-pound right-handed pitcher from Tennessee. After spending his freshman season at Georgia Southern (and striking out nearly 12 per nine innings), Dollander transferred to Tennessee and went 10-0. He struck out 108 in 79 innings (12.3 K/9) and only walked 13 batters. He entered the off-season as the top pitching prospect and possibly the top overall prospect.

But in 2023 Dollander looked much more human. He was 7-6 and his ERA increased from 2.39 to 4.96. His strikeout numbers were similar (12.1 K/9), but he walked twice as many batters (from 1.5 to 3.0 BB/9). He was much more hittable (WHIP increased from 0.797 to 1.270) and gave up twice as many home runs. If he didn't have the near-perfect 2022 to lean on, Dollander's "stuff" still probably gets him drafted on Day 1 in 2023. But who Dollander was in 2023 was not the best pitcher in college baseball.

According to JD Cameron:

Quote

Dollander has a smooth, repeatable three quarters operation with an extremely quick arm. His fastball has deception and ride and sits in the mid 90s, touching 99mph. Dollander also features a plus sweeping slider that sits in the mid 80s, a changeup and curveball which are currently a smidge above average.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
It's extremely difficult to acquire a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. 

If the Twins were dead-set on adding a pitcher - and nothing indicates they are - Dollander would be a top-four option after Paul Skenes is selected. The upside on Dollander is significant. He's got an overpowering fastball, multiple breaking balls, and a change-up; all of which project to be usable in the big leagues.

Dollander would likely become the club's highest-ranked starting pitching prospect when you consider risk and proximity to the major leagues. He also would likely appear on the back half of some Top 100 lists. You could do worse than giving yourself a top pitching prospect, right?

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
Dollander's stock has dropped since the Twins' stroke of lottery luck.

The Twins are suckers for sliders and Dollander's has regressed. It's totally within the realm of possibilities that the Twins could tinker with his mechanics and get the 2022 version of Dollander back, but in the world of "what have you done for me lately?" there are other college pitchers, specifically, that have done a lot more than Dollander has. 

And as the saying goes, "there's no such thing as a pitching prospect."

What do you think? Would you take Dollander if you were making the call?

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[Mike Sixel]

I'd certainly consider it.....I've waffled on him.....It is so hard to get an ACE or even number 2 pitcher. There just aren't that many out there.....and if they are ever FAs, forget it. Fangraphs isn't in love with his fastball (they aren't in love with Lowder or Walldrp fastballs either).

Lowder and Walldrop look under rated on your consensus board....

But, if the choice is Dollander or Clark? I have no idea what I'd do. If it is Skenes or Dollander, it is Skenes.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd certainly consider it.....I've waffled on him.....It is so hard to get an ACE or even number 2 pitcher. There just aren't that many out there.....and if they are ever FAs, forget it. Fangraphs isn't in love with his fastball (they aren't in love with Lowder or Walldrp fastballs either).

Lowder and Walldrop look under rated on your consensus board....

But, if the choice is Dollander or Clark? I have no idea what I'd do. If it is Skenes or Dollander, it is Skenes.

I'm not super high on Dollander, tbh.

He'll probably prove me wrong by getting drafted by the Royals and holding the Twins to like a 0.34 ERA over the course of his long and illustrious 14-year MLB career... but he just doesn't do it for me.

Skenes, absolutely. Lowder, yes. Meyer, I could be convinced. Dollander, nope.

But like I said on Twitter, commenters always want to talk Dollander, so we obliged.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

I'm not super high on Dollander, tbh.

He'll probably prove me wrong by getting drafted by the Royals and holding the Twins to like a 0.34 ERA over the course of his long and illustrious 14-year MLB career... but he just doesn't do it for me.

Skenes, absolutely. Lowder, yes. Meyer, I could be convinced. Dollander, nope.

But like I said on Twitter, commenters always want to talk Dollander, so we obliged.

I can only go by what I read, and I don't LOVE what I read about Dollander....hence Clark wins that battle for me. Thanks for all your excellent work, btw. Really enjoying it.

Now that I've typed that first sentence, I don't want him at 5. Gotta LOVE a guy you pick at five (but again, I'm not scouting these guys).

[jkcarew]

I wouldn't be totally shocked if they reached a bit for Teel, assuming they think he's a mlb catcher. Don't know if that would be smart or not. I'd rather that than Dollander, tbh.

Probably should just take either of the HS kids...I'm higher on Clark than Jenkins fwiw. But it will be tempting when drafting up here to go with someone they think can help sooner.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Kiley McDaniel has really explored some... well, alternate ideas for this draft.

Yankees blowing through their spending limit and taking the penalties that come with it. I don't think that would alter the Twins thinking much.

Today he explored Crews not going first. Reading between the lines, it seems as though Boras may be trying to push Crews to Washington. He doesn't say Boras by name, however. He also suggests that Jenkins wouldn't go 1 either because it's the same rep. Boras spent last year in bed with with Rangers. 

It could all be leverage plays to squeeze as much money out for his guys as possible, but there are worse scenarios than the Pirates going underslot with Clark. Crews to the Nationals. The Tigers choosing between Skenes and Langford (actually that does suck for the Twins). Jenkins going 4 to the Rangers and the Twins *hopefully* getting Skenes or Langford dropped into their lap.

It's crazy season for sure. 

[2wins87]

I wouldn't be upset with Dollander at #5. The Twins staff can certainly develop good breaking balls, so hopefully they would be able to help Dollander regain his. Although the coaching in a big D1 program should be pretty competent too, so the regression this year is still concerning.

With all the good bats at the top of the draft, if they were going to go outside the consensus top 5 I think I would prefer Teel, and I would even hope they would be taking a hard look at guys like Matt Shaw and Tommy Troy.

[weitz41]

At our original draft slot #13 I'd say yeah to Dollander. At #5 feels like a reach unless it's an under slot signing. #5 should be a simple take the one that lands in our lap. Although I think it's 50/50 that it goes that way.

[Dman]

Seems like just too many good bats to go pitcher at number 5 unless Skenes drops.  Too much variance in results to want Dollander at number 5.  Been burned there before with Tyler Jay hoping to refine pitches.  The bats look like better bets to me.

I still think Pittsburgh should take Skenes number 1.  They will need an ace to compete and there should be good bats all the way down to pick 60 or so.  If ever there was a perfect pitcher to take number 1 he would be it.  I get them looking at Clark and doing a (Royce Lewis) type move.  He is a 5 tool player that in time could be as good or better than any player in the top 5 but I am pretty certain they will regret passing on Skenes as he seems like such a unicorn pitcher. A Verlander like pitcher IMO.

Jeremey what more can you tell me about Jenkins?  I hear he was looked at pretty hard by Washington and Texas really likes his bat as well. Is he sort of a Bryce Harper comp with the quick stroke and power or not quite that level?  There also are rumblings about Teel being top 5 in some mocks if teams view offensive catcher as scarce and his bat and eye a plate seem to play well but maybe just under the main top 5.

I know for the most part all the mocks have the main top 5 in various orders but I still think teams might want more than a big corner outfield bat as those can be found lower in the draft as well.  Usually the top is saved for up the middle bats and high end pitching but Crews and Langford do look special and others would add Jenkins to that list.  Clark looks solid for up the middle and Skenes the best pitcher I have seen at the top in quite a while so maybe it just stays set.

Should be an interesting 1st round for sure.

[Otaknam]

At number five you have pick the highest ceiling guy, an impact player. My guess is the Twins will take whomever is left from Clark or Jenkins, assuming that Crews, Skenes, and Langford are gone. Lowder might be a possibility here, or Teel if they see him as a strong two way player, High school pitchers are a crapshoot. I would prefer a college pitcher over a high school pitcher like Meyer when picking this high. 

. 

[saviking]

Not evaluating talent but from a pure positional need, I think our system could use a starting pitcher or catcher prospect the most. 

[Jeremy Nygaard]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

what more can you tell me about Jenkins?  I hear he was looked at pretty hard by Washington and Texas really likes his bat as well. Is he sort of a Bryce Harper comp with the quick stroke and power or not quite that level?

Austin Meadows is a comp I've seen on more than one occasion. Injuries have really derailed his once-promising career and there's some been some hip issues in Jenkins's past, so maybe it's an apt comparison.

Kyle Tucker is another guy that's come to mind. Pretty swing, solid all the way around, without any extremely loud tools. I think Tucker might be more a ceiling comp, though, and I also don't think Jenkins will be as much of a threat in the run game.

Twins fans will probably have the same expectations for Walker Jenkins as they did for Max Kepler, if that makes sense.

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

Austin Meadows is a comp I've seen on more than one occasion. Injuries have really derailed his once-promising career and there's some been some hip issues in Jenkins's past, so maybe it's an apt comparison.

Kyle Tucker is another guy that's come to mind. Pretty swing, solid all the way around, without any extremely loud tools. I think Tucker might be more a ceiling comp, though, and I also don't think Jenkins will be as much of a threat in the run game.

Twins fans will probably have the same expectations for Walker Jenkins as they did for Max Kepler, if that makes sense.

Yeah I don't know that, that excites me much at number 5 with E-Rod, Rosario and Jose Rodriguez already young and on the way up and the Twins have invested lot's of their pool in outfielders in international free agency it doesn't feel like the best use of draft capital if he is the one that is left.  Still he is highly regarded by virtually every outlet so what do I know.

Teel has a nice batting line and plays a position where it is hard to find quality offensive output so that has a special value all its own.  I know lots of people don't like Wilson's lack of power but he is not too far of from Brooks Lee with the bat IMO and he is a faster runner with a decent chance to stick at short another position of need for Minnesota.  I think I like both better than Jenkins given how the farm is setup.  However, if Jenkins turn into the next Tucker then that decision could go sideways.

Thanks for the response! 🙂

[gman]

As long as the Twins preach swing from the heels, home run or nothing type of swings, why bother drafting good hitters with high draft picks. You can get the slugger only type, in the second or third rounds.

[SteveLV]

I prefer Lowder to Dollander as the 2nd SP off the board.

Jenkins scares me.  I have seen him in person, and he just doesn't ooze overwhelming talent even though he does have a beautiful swing.  I would greatly prefer taking a college player at 5, but of the 2 HS bats I prefer Clark.  I like Clark's interviews; he is very smart, mature and confident.

I don't know if the rumor the Rangers love Jenkins is just smoke, but I truly think the Twins simply need to let the draft come to them and take whichever of the consensus top 5 falls to them at 5 overall.

[Doctor Gast]

I don't think that Twins will draft Dollander, nor should they. Yet Skenes was coached by Wes Johnson so he's on top of his game where as Dollander wasn't coached like Skenes. So if a team believes they could correct Dollander, he'll be a steal because of his raw stuff.

[DocBauer]

I can see reasons for drafting Dollander. He was the top arm to begin the year, and potentially the #1 choice overall. He then slips and has a more "human" season and slides. But it sure seems like the stuff is there to profile as a top of the rotation SP who might just need some mechanical adjustments to make everyone who passed on him look silly.

Still, Lowder does seem to have passed him and may have just as much, if not more, potential. So if they went arm, Lowder MIGHT be the safer and smarter pick.

Whether it's the Pirates trying to go "safe" over someone who, supposedly, doesn't want to be there, someone trying for under-slot to spend more later, Dollander or Lowder or Teel sneaking in to the top 4, I wouldn't be surprised to see a surprise, if that makes sense. Lee was not supposed to be there for the Twins last year, and we saw what happened.

I won't be upset if the Twins go for an arm. I just don't know you can ever be upset if your team has a chance to draft a potential top of the rotation arm that early in the draft. And I'm actually starting to wonder if Langford might not actually slip to the Twins at 5. If he does, someone should pull a muscle racing to make him their pick.

But my target is still Clark as I think he fits available talent and potential as well as need.

[Roaddog]

Dollander kind of scares me. Is this year an aberration, or is it sign of things to come. This will age me, but reminds me of Ryan Mills. I don't think I'd prefer the best available bat, then grab pitching at 34

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, saviking said:

Not evaluating talent but from a pure positional need, I think our system could use a starting pitcher or catcher prospect the most. 

I'm still hoping for a quality pitcher too, plus we obviously need more catching prospects. But if some young talent like Clark is still available at the 5 pick, you gotta grab him. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

If Dollander and Skenes’ last two seasons were reversed, we would be talking about how we hoped Dollander would somehow fall to the Twins at five.

Another time a player was at the top of the board heading into the spring and fell after a middling college season was Trea Turner.  Twins didn’t take him when they had a chance to get him at #5, but instead took Nick Gordon.  Turner fell to #13.  

I think Dollander is the right call this year.  I think there is a good chance he winds up considerably better than Skenes.

[Fatbat]

Has anyone on the consensus board researched why Dollander had the season he had this year? He has a new pitching coach. He has been trying to develop his 4th pitch as a way to not be just a flamethrower. He is also been trying to overthrow just to hit triple digits. Im hoping Langford, Clarke or Skenes gets to us at 5 but Dollander is a great pick at 5 provided those guys are gone.  (Zero chance at Crews and I’m not high on Jenkins.)

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Has anyone on the consensus board researched why Dollander had the season he had this year? He has a new pitching coach. He has been trying to develop his 4th pitch as a way to not be just a flamethrower. He is also been trying to overthrow just to hit triple digits. Im hoping Langford, Clarke or Skenes gets to us at 5 but Dollander is a great pick at 5 provided those guys are gone.  (Zero chance at Crews and I’m not high on Jenkins.)

Have any scouts tried to scout him?

[South Dakota Tom]

I see Pittsburgh taking Crews, then Washington taking Skenes.  Clark is the helium pick at 3; then we're down to Langford or Jenkins, and 4 won't let Langford slide any lower.  I think this is the pick we get, unless we have eyes on something other than pba.

[Fatbat]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Have any scouts tried to scout him?

Absolutely, most of the write ups on Dollander just reiterate how he wasn’t effective in spring ball like he was expected to be…. and then they finish the report with. “ Still has upside potential to be an Ace.” Im sure there is a team just waiting to snipe him….