Royals 3, Twins 2: Duran Command Derails Twins in 9th

[Hans Birkeland]

A rare bout of wildness from Jhoan Duran costs the Twins a game they led in the eighth as Royals steal game three from the Twins, ending their nine game losing streak at Target Field.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober 5.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 6 SO (88 pitches, 55 strikes 62.5%)
Home Runs: Buxton (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-0.311), Trevor Larnach (-.230), Joey Gallo and Jorge López (-0.180)

Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Bailey Ober makes another solid cold weather start
Called up to replace the injured Kenta Maeda, Ober started off the game by tying Bobby Witt Jr. up with a high-and-tight fastball, striking out in comical fashion. Not to be outdone, Sal Perez went down swinging on a slider two feet outside to finish the inning. Throughout the outing, his changeup was floating outside of the zone, or hanging in the top portion of the strike zone, leading to some hard contact from left handed batters. That eventually hurt him in the fifth when he gave up a hard single to Nicky Lopez for the Royal’s first run. He was lifted after a two-out single to another lefty, Nick Pratto in the fifth. The Royals are the worst offense in the league by runs scored, so it will be telling to see how Ober fares against a collection of better lefties. 

Max Kepler continues to show why he should be a part of the team’s plans
Ignoring the pleas of one Aaron Gleeman, the Twins have held on to Max Kepler despite their plethora of promising left-handed corner bats. Kepler’s OPS is now solidly over .800 after adding two hits, a hit-by-pitch and a walk today, while continuing to play excellent defense in right field. If he remains healthy, a three WAR season seems quite attainable which suddenly makes his 8.5M salary look positively valuable. Let us not forget Kepler was a league average hitter in 2022 before attempting to play through a broken toe that tanked his season numbers, a fact conveniently forgotten by.. everyone?

Royals’ starter Brad Keller faces his control demons, sort of wins
Coming into play with a solid-looking 3.96 ERA, Keller quickly showed why his walk rate is over seventeen percent, walking Max Kepler to lead off the game. Kepler was erased on a Carlos Correa double play, though, and Keller began his hi-wire act from there, stranding runners in scoring position in the second and third before starting to unravel in the fourth when he walked two and unleashed a wild pitch that allowed Buxton to score the game’s first run. He ended up walking five on the night in addition to five hits and the aforementioned wild pitch, channeling a little Sam Deduno magic to avoid giving up any significant damage.

Jorge Polanco stays hot but confusion leads to baserunning blunder
Ahead in the count to the wild Keller, Polanco ripped a 3-1 fastball deep to the right field corner, where the ball landed on top of the wall’s edge, inconceivably bouncing back into play where a trotting Polanco was tagged out at second base. He then ripped a line drive (106.6 MPH) to right field with men on in the fifth, only for the suddenly ascendant Nick Pratto to make a great diving catch. 

Decision to have Jorge López face Salvador Perez in the eighth backfires
Griffin Jax had thrown 15 pitches in the eighth inning, giving up just a walk to Bobby Witt Jr. Rocco Baldelli came and got him anyway, bringing in Jorge López to face noted Twin-killer Salvador Perez. After getting ahead 0-2 with high fastballs, López threw another high fastball that Perez got on top of, lining a single to center to tie the game. It is fair to question whether Jax may have been a better matchup given his elite slider paired with the fact that Perez got a hit off of López the night before.

Buxton draws another walk, remains above league-average in walk rate
Drawing his tenth walk in his 25th game would have been a preposterous stat for Buxton just a few years ago. Although he was known to have good strike zone control as a prospect, his actual walk rates were abysmal the first few years of his career, and plummeted to 1.5% during the 2020 season that also represented his power breakout. He is now over nine percent after walking 8.9% of the time last year (league average is 8.8%). Buxton’s timing still seems a little off this year despite his big home run in today’s game, but if he has added a modicum of selectivity to his game that should put the league on notice.

What’s Next
MLB ERA leader Sonny Gray (3-0, 0.62 ERA) wraps up the series facing Royals “ace” Brady Singer (2-2, 6.67 ERA) with the Twins hoping to avoid what would be a disappointing split with the bottom-feeding Royals.
 

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Chart

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Durán	15	0	15	0	25	55
Thielbar	0	0	0	25	22	47
J López	10	0	0	20	16	46
Jax	0	0	0	16	15	31
Morán	0	0	29	0	0	29
Stewart	0	0	28	0	0	28
Pagán	0	10	0	0	0	10
Winder	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[wsnydes]

I flipped on the radio just before Duran and the bullpen melted down.  You can blame me if you want.  

Walks still haunt.  Sloppy end to the game.  Sounds like they had plenty of chances requiring a clutch hit throughout the game, only to come up empty.  Polanco's return has been a boost for the offense, but he's not going to cure the RISP problem on his own.

[Rosterman]

Sometimes the Twins can be so frustrating.

You have 26 players on the team. If you don't trust the arms in the bullpen in pretty much any setting, why are they there. Wsa there a reason you dragged out Thielber, Jax and Lopez AGAIN after they pitched the night before, and NOT WELL putting eight Royal runners on base.

You brought up Winder to be a long-man. What better time to test him than to put him out there in a close game where 2-3 innings against a so-called weaker team would be a goodtime to reinroduce him to major league play.

If Pagan is just around for can't win or mop up situations, and even Moran slipping into that status, then the front office has made some mistakes in putting together a bullpen.

The Royals didn't give up. They played hungry.

You pinch-run Correa, who is not a disater on the basepaths, with more of a running machine like Castro, and he doesn't test the outfielder's arm. If Buxton comes to the plate with runners on first and third, and a Polanco dancing off the first base bag, it puts whole new pressure on the pitcher.

Sometimes, you feel, splitting a series is okay. Maybe it is. Let's get everyone out there to play (and I hate the B-squad day lineups). Bu the guys in your bullpen are major league pitchers. They are expected to be ready to come in and do a job.

Have no explanation for Duran who just needed to keep throwing 100mph strikes. Hell, evan Chapman managed to do that. Did the "immigration" blip throw him off the game? Three walks, a sacrifice bunt, a wild pitch and a strikeout. Worse than giving up a leadoff homerun (which he has done a couple of times) or letting a team bang together three singles.

On a plus note: Ober did well!

[Linus]

Another sloppy game for my favorite team. I HATE that players don’t run hard out of the box. Polanco goes into a home run trot on a ball that hits the wall?  Just effing run and show boat when the play is over. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins couldn't generate much & KC beat us by small ball. Ober had a pretty good game considering.

[h2oface]

38 minutes ago, Linus said:

Another sloppy game for my favorite team. I HATE that players don’t run hard out of the box. Polanco goes into a home run trot on a ball that hits the wall?  Just effing run and show boat when the play is over. 

Used to be they would be benched for the next game, no matter who they were. At least not get the start. Polanco sure is hot at the plate, though. Now, Baldelli shrugs. Just talks about the play in the presser as if it is totally normal to assume the HR. Perfect opportunity to say "we have to run hard on all plays until the call is made." I truly don't understand it. All they have to do is play baseball with max effort for a couple hours a day. Not bolting on the base paths for every ball in play is just bad coaching and training. If you let them get away with it, they never change. And where was Conger? What was he doing as the first base coach? So many just stand there on the dropped third strike and give up, too. No matter how you hit the ball, even if you "think" you have crushed it, run your fastest until you see it land and if close, a call is made. The umps made the in play call right away. I guess, I do understand it. Different time. Different mentality from the players.

https://www.mlb.com/video/jorge-polanco-out-after-review?q=ContentTags == ["hitting","gamepk-718378"] Order By Timestamp DESC&pt=Offensive Highlights&p=0

 

[PDX Twin]

Ober deserved better. He's a class act.

[h2oface]

Moran, Stewart, Pagan, and Winder for tomorrow to back up Gray. Hope he can go deep and the Twins score some runs. Maybe he gets the chance to pitch a rare complete game.

[USAFChief]

Frustrating loss. 

Pretty clear ignoring the pen in the offseason was a bad gamble. 

[mikelink45]

I did not think I would be saying this, but I am concerned about Duran.  We need him to be what he has been.

[h2oface]

29 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I did not think I would be saying this, but I am concerned about Duran.  We need him to be what he has been.

Batters have been touching most of his pitches when they swing it seems. 

[darwin22]

Two pretty simple reasons for loss:

1. Offense goes 0-11 with RISP.  Pathetic.

2.  Walks will haunt---both leadoff walks in 8th (Jax) and 9th (Duran) both scored.

Also, sure don't understand Rocco's thinking pitching to Perez in 8th with 1st base open.  Not only has Perez demonstrated he's a monster at Target Field for years, but he was 5-7 lifetime against Perez prior to his AB.

Very frustrating loss which hopefully will motivate Baldelli NOT to trot out the JV lineup tomorrow! Absolutely zero reason, with an off day Monday, to see multiple hitters sitting vs. Brady Singer.

 

[stringer bell]

Today might be the first game where stolen bases really hurt the Twins. The Royals got stolen base threats on base and took advantage. There will be more, I presume.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, h2oface said:

Used to be they would be benched for the next game, no matter who they were. At least not get the start. Polanco sure is hot at the plate, though. Now, Baldelli shrugs. Just talks about the play in the presser as if it is totally normal to assume the HR. Perfect opportunity to say "we have to run hard on all plays until the call is made." I truly don't understand it. All they have to do is play baseball with max effort for a couple hours a day. Not bolting on the base paths for every ball in play is just bad coaching and training. If you let them get away with it, they never change. And where was Conger? What was he doing as the first base coach? So many just stand there on the dropped third strike and give up, too. No matter how you hit the ball, even if you "think" you have crushed it, run your fastest until you see it land and if close, a call is made. The umps made the in play call right away. I guess, I do understand it. Different time. Different mentality from the players.

https://www.mlb.com/video/jorge-polanco-out-after-review?q=ContentTags == ["hitting","gamepk-718378"] Order By Timestamp DESC&pt=Offensive Highlights&p=0

 

How do you know he did not chew his a$$ out in private?

[Jocko87]

I said in the series preview post we would be disappointed with 3 out of 4. The reason being that the loss would come in a frustrating fashion. It happens, come back tomorrow and get after it. It does seem like there are several opportunities for Rocco to make a point with an example from today. No reason to do it in public though.

Also Kepler being hot is great but not as a reason to prove he is part of the future plans. That ship has sailed but it's slow out of port. There is likely nothing he can do but increase his trade value.  It will be a nice win for the FO if he hits well and the return is higher than the off season though. Go Max! I can't see a scenario where they effectively pull the plug on 2-3 prospects to go forward with him.

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Sometimes the Twins can be so frustrating.

You have 26 players on the team. If you don't trust the arms in the bullpen in pretty much any setting, why are they there. Wsa there a reason you dragged out Thielber, Jax and Lopez AGAIN after they pitched the night before, and NOT WELL putting eight Royal runners on base.

You brought up Winder to be a long-man. What better time to test him than to put him out there in a close game where 2-3 innings against a so-called weaker team would be a goodtime to reinroduce him to major league play.

If Pagan is just around for can't win or mop up situations, and even Moran slipping into that status, then the front office has made some mistakes in putting together a bullpen

 

Agree with the bulk of this. For the last week to ten days, I've been bullish on the back end of the bullpen. They struggled, but succeeded on Friday and struggled again today and lost a late lead. I was surprised Rocco used all three of Jax, Thielbar and JLopez on consecutive days, especially since none of them had an easy time on Friday.

What does that say about the rest of the BP? Pretty sure it's nothing good. I didn't see anywhere where Winder was designated as long relief. He has worked multiple innings in most, if not all, of his rehab appearances. But if Rocco isn't going to use any of the "front end four" except in lowest leverage, there is a good chance he'll burn out the back end. 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, Rosterman said:

 

You pinch-run Correa, who is not a disater on the basepaths, with more of a running machine like Castro, and he doesn't test the outfielder's arm. If Buxton comes to the plate with runners on first and third, and a Polanco dancing off the first base bag, it puts whole new pressure on the pitcher.

Have no explanation for Duran who just needed to keep throwing 100mph strikes. Hell, evan Chapman managed to do that. Did the "immigration" blip throw him off the game? Three walks, a sacrifice bunt, a wild pitch and a strikeout. Worse than giving up a leadoff homerun (which he has done a couple of times) or letting a team bang together three singles.

On a plus note: Ober did well!

I don't know if Willi picked up his third base coach or not. Watkins probably had a better idea if a play at third was going to be close. The play was behind Castro, so I do think it would be up to the third base coach. Hitters 4-5 were coming up, so it's not like it was Gordon and Jeffers. 

Duran wasn't sharp. He usually doesn't have a problem with walks, but he lost two guys (plus an intentional walk) and walking one of the fastest guys in MLB isn't optimum. It was like a leadoff double. 

[stringer bell]

For quite a few reasons, tomorrow's game is pretty substantial. The Twins had a long homestand including two last place teams and if they lose, they'll finish .500. It will also be the last game of the month--17-12 looks and sounds so much better than 16-13.

The Twins totally shut down the Royals with RiSP in the opening series of the year. Regression to the mean indicates that KC will be hitting better in those spots this series and that has borne out for sure. They also have been getting hits from guys who looked like easy outs--Oliveros and Pratto--so there were less easy innings so far this weekend.

Cleveland lost in extra innings today, so no ground lost and the White Sox might be out of it by May Day. 

[Doctor Wu]

... and the aforementioned wild pitch, channeling a little Sam Deduno magic to avoid giving up any significant damage.

Man, that was a VERY wild pitch! Jeffers had almost no chance to keep that one from getting away. But your mention of Sam Deduno made me smile! I always thought he could have been a keeper ... if he had more control!

[jmlease1]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How do you know he did not chew his a$$ out in private?

That does seem to be the way this team does things: if someone needs a kick in the butt or be given some pointed instruction, etc they do it out of the view of the fans and the press. They're much more of a " keep things on an even keel" sort of squad for the most part, especially for the coaching staff and front office. That's frequently less satisfying for fans, but it's probably seen as a real positive by the players.

Disappointing loss, but hopefully the team comes out on fire on sunday and takes the series. a split would be disappointing, but taking 3 of 4 would be just ducky.

Ober did pretty well, looks like a major-league pitcher. Can he have a healthy season? I'd feel much more confident in him if he could get through a full season and throw 140-150 innings...

[Peter]

Need to score with runners in scoring position!!!0-11 unacceptable!!! Pitching especially bullpen was horrible!!! Lead off walks in 8th/9th inning 🤮🤬😡💩let’s get bats rocking today/sunny pitches deep get blowout win finish 3-1 with royals and 6-4 on homestand!!

[Linus]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How do you know he did not chew his a$$ out in private?

None of us knows what happens privately. What we do know is this team plays sloppy baseball and it has been that way for a couple of seasons. Whatever Rocco does or doesn’t do ain’t working. And this coming from a guy that generally likes Rocco. 

[miracleb]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

None of us knows what happens privately. What we do know is this team plays sloppy baseball and it has been that way for a couple of seasons. Whatever Rocco does or doesn’t do ain’t working. And this coming from a guy that generally likes Rocco. 

Rocco would have mentioned that they "talked to the player" if they had actually talked to him about it.  That was a coaching fail.  Conger as 1st base coach needs to be yelling instructions to players who the coaches have to assume are clueless.  Rocco needs to tighten up the ship....and we need to hear that he is working on it.  If no accountability.....nothing will change.  Is there any video of Polanco rounding 1st base with Conger in it?  If Conger is yelling "BACK, BACK"........then it is on Polanco..... and I take back the "coaching fail."

[Blyleven2011]

11 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Two pretty simple reasons for loss:

1. Offense goes 0-11 with RISP.  Pathetic.

2.  Walks will haunt---both leadoff walks in 8th (Jax) and 9th (Duran) both scored.

Also, sure don't understand Rocco's thinking pitching to Perez in 8th with 1st base open.  Not only has Perez demonstrated he's a monster at Target Field for years, but he was 5-7 lifetime against Perez prior to his AB.

Very frustrating loss which hopefully will motivate Baldelli NOT to trot out the JV lineup tomorrow! Absolutely zero reason, with an off day Monday, to see multiple hitters sitting vs. Brady Singer.

 

Plus the players took the field but did not bring the killer instinct to play and put the royals away  , lots of opportunities for the  taking   , the twins have only won 2 games scoring 4 runs or less ...

 

[Blyleven2011]

14 hours ago, Rosterman said:

 

Have no explanation for Duran who just needed to keep throwing 100mph strikes. Hell, evan Chapman managed to do that. Did the "immigration" blip throw him off the game? Three walks, a sacrifice bunt, a wild pitch and a strikeout !

This crossed my mind also , his mind was on immigration  and not on pitching ( could be )  ...

[John Belinski]

Another game lost due to Rocco not having a clue on how to handle pitchers. Bringing  in Lopez to pitch against a hitter that was 5 for 7 when facing Lopez has to be one of the worst pitching choices ever. Why would any manager make a choice like that?  It is really hard to think that Rocco is a good manager when he makes a choice like that.  Wish one of the writers would ask him why he made that move.

[lake_guy]

52 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

Another game lost due to Rocco not having a clue on how to handle pitchers. Bringing  in Lopez to pitch against a hitter that was 5 for 7 when facing Lopez has to be one of the worst pitching choices ever. Why would any manager make a choice like that?  It is really hard to think that Rocco is a good manager when he makes a choice like that.  Wish one of the writers would ask him why he made that move.

exactly this.."Wish one of the writers would ask him why he made that move."  I keep wondering about that myself.  Maybe the writers should start thinking of it as not challenging him but helping him by making him think through why he does what he does.  For a team that seemingly prides itself on the use of analytics stuff like this just doesn't compute.

[djvang]

I put that loss 100% on Baldelli for choosing to pitch to Perez in the 8th. I was screaming at the TV to walk him. How can you let the same guy beat you over and over? 1st base was open.

[Whitey333]

It  was a typical Twins game Saturday as it has been the past 2+ years.  Sloppy, uninspiring play.  We have a manager that costs us several games per year.  A handful of managerial mistakes or at least questionable decisions made by him.  On Polanco not hustling; this is a frequent problem with the Twins that doesn't seem to be addressed.  Polanco should have been benched.  To the person that says he believes players like Rocco's approach to the way he handles things why not?  They obviously aren't held accountable.  This team continually plays boring and undisciplined ball under Rocco yet he isn't held accountable either.  I hope he doesn't put out a jv lineup today like he usually does on Sunday.  Due to yesterday's sloppy loss Sunday becomes a must win.  A loss would drop the homestand to 5-5 after taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees but not playing well against two teams in last place. Even a 6-4 record is helpful but underwhelming considering the opposition.

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Sometimes the Twins can be so frustrating.

You have 26 players on the team. If you don't trust the arms in the bullpen in pretty much any setting, why are they there. Wsa there a reason you dragged out Thielber, Jax and Lopez AGAIN after they pitched the night before, and NOT WELL putting eight Royal runners on base.

You brought up Winder to be a long-man. What better time to test him than to put him out there in a close game where 2-3 innings against a so-called weaker team would be a goodtime to reinroduce him to major league play.

If Pagan is just around for can't win or mop up situations, and even Moran slipping into that status, then the front office has made some mistakes in putting together a bullpen.

The Royals didn't give up. They played hungry.

You pinch-run Correa, who is not a disater on the basepaths, with more of a running machine like Castro, and he doesn't test the outfielder's arm. If Buxton comes to the plate with runners on first and third, and a Polanco dancing off the first base bag, it puts whole new pressure on the pitcher.

Sometimes, you feel, splitting a series is okay. Maybe it is. Let's get everyone out there to play (and I hate the B-squad day lineups). Bu the guys in your bullpen are major league pitchers. They are expected to be ready to come in and do a job.

Have no explanation for Duran who just needed to keep throwing 100mph strikes. Hell, evan Chapman managed to do that. Did the "immigration" blip throw him off the game? Three walks, a sacrifice bunt, a wild pitch and a strikeout. Worse than giving up a leadoff homerun (which he has done a couple of times) or letting a team bang together three singles.

On a plus note: Ober did well!

After Thielbar came in there’s no need for Winder. Coming to get a 3rd out in 6th isn’t a fair spot for Winder either. Management of staff/Pen wasn’t the problem - Jax walking the first guy in the 8th was the problem!! He had him 0-2……..I did not agree with bringing López in just after Jax retired 2 guys in a row. Guys have to execute & all 3 of our late inning guys didn’t execute!

I do agree that when throwing 100Mph plus and there are control issues, we could probably lay off the splinker as a surprise to the batter. Throw strikes!

There is no doubt that Pagán creates a dead spot in our Pen when we need something good to happen. Can’t go there.