Twins Video
Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober 5.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 6 SO (88 pitches, 55 strikes 62.5%)
Home Runs: Buxton (6)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-0.311), Trevor Larnach (-.230), Joey Gallo and Jorge López (-0.180)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
Bailey Ober makes another solid cold weather start
Called up to replace the injured Kenta Maeda, Ober started off the game by tying Bobby Witt Jr. up with a high-and-tight fastball, striking out in comical fashion. Not to be outdone, Sal Perez went down swinging on a slider two feet outside to finish the inning. Throughout the outing, his changeup was floating outside of the zone, or hanging in the top portion of the strike zone, leading to some hard contact from left handed batters. That eventually hurt him in the fifth when he gave up a hard single to Nicky Lopez for the Royal’s first run. He was lifted after a two-out single to another lefty, Nick Pratto in the fifth. The Royals are the worst offense in the league by runs scored, so it will be telling to see how Ober fares against a collection of better lefties.
Max Kepler continues to show why he should be a part of the team’s plans
Ignoring the pleas of one Aaron Gleeman, the Twins have held on to Max Kepler despite their plethora of promising left-handed corner bats. Kepler’s OPS is now solidly over .800 after adding two hits, a hit-by-pitch and a walk today, while continuing to play excellent defense in right field. If he remains healthy, a three WAR season seems quite attainable which suddenly makes his 8.5M salary look positively valuable. Let us not forget Kepler was a league average hitter in 2022 before attempting to play through a broken toe that tanked his season numbers, a fact conveniently forgotten by.. everyone?
Royals’ starter Brad Keller faces his control demons, sort of wins
Coming into play with a solid-looking 3.96 ERA, Keller quickly showed why his walk rate is over seventeen percent, walking Max Kepler to lead off the game. Kepler was erased on a Carlos Correa double play, though, and Keller began his hi-wire act from there, stranding runners in scoring position in the second and third before starting to unravel in the fourth when he walked two and unleashed a wild pitch that allowed Buxton to score the game’s first run. He ended up walking five on the night in addition to five hits and the aforementioned wild pitch, channeling a little Sam Deduno magic to avoid giving up any significant damage.
Jorge Polanco stays hot but confusion leads to baserunning blunder
Ahead in the count to the wild Keller, Polanco ripped a 3-1 fastball deep to the right field corner, where the ball landed on top of the wall’s edge, inconceivably bouncing back into play where a trotting Polanco was tagged out at second base. He then ripped a line drive (106.6 MPH) to right field with men on in the fifth, only for the suddenly ascendant Nick Pratto to make a great diving catch.
Decision to have Jorge López face Salvador Perez in the eighth backfires
Griffin Jax had thrown 15 pitches in the eighth inning, giving up just a walk to Bobby Witt Jr. Rocco Baldelli came and got him anyway, bringing in Jorge López to face noted Twin-killer Salvador Perez. After getting ahead 0-2 with high fastballs, López threw another high fastball that Perez got on top of, lining a single to center to tie the game. It is fair to question whether Jax may have been a better matchup given his elite slider paired with the fact that Perez got a hit off of López the night before.
Buxton draws another walk, remains above league-average in walk rate
Drawing his tenth walk in his 25th game would have been a preposterous stat for Buxton just a few years ago. Although he was known to have good strike zone control as a prospect, his actual walk rates were abysmal the first few years of his career, and plummeted to 1.5% during the 2020 season that also represented his power breakout. He is now over nine percent after walking 8.9% of the time last year (league average is 8.8%). Buxton’s timing still seems a little off this year despite his big home run in today’s game, but if he has added a modicum of selectivity to his game that should put the league on notice.
What’s Next
MLB ERA leader Sonny Gray (3-0, 0.62 ERA) wraps up the series facing Royals “ace” Brady Singer (2-2, 6.67 ERA) with the Twins hoping to avoid what would be a disappointing split with the bottom-feeding Royals.
Postgame Interviews
Bullpen Usage Chart
| TUE | WED | THU | FRI | SAT | TOT | |
| Durán | 15 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 25 | 55 |
| Thielbar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 22 | 47 |
| J López | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 16 | 46 |
| Jax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Morán | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 29 |
| Stewart | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Pagán | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Winder | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |







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