Will the Real Jose Miranda Please Stand Up

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins saw plenty of rookie debuts last year, and among the most promising of them was Jose Miranda. Settled into a more consistent position this year, the hope was that his production would continue. So far, it’s been less than ideal.

 

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins moved on from Gio Urshela this offseason, it meant the hot corner was going to be handed over to Jose Miranda. Alex Kirilloff and Joey Gallo would handle the bulk of work at first base, and Carlos Correa was back to take over the shortstop role. At third, Miranda has been better defensively, but the production at the dish has left plenty to be desired.

Miranda finished 2022 with a 116 OPS+, which is more than fine in and of itself. However, the .651 OPS over his final 45 games as opponents adjusted to him too numbers down by a significant amount. Working on his body, and knowing the big-league level more, an offseason of preparation was expected to pay dividends.

We’re still early in the 2023 season, but Miranda’s .244/.301/.267 current line represents a brutal .568 OPS. In nearly 100 at-bats he has just two doubles to his name, and batting in the middle of the order, that simply isn’t going to get it done.

So what’s wrong?

From a high level overview, basically everything. Miranda’s Statcast profile shows more of what is happening rather than what part of the process needs reworking. When at his best, there are so many categories that can be red for the Twins third baseman, but right now there isn’t much of it to be seen.

A bit more under the hood we can find some answers. First, there is some bad luck happening. Miranda’s xwOBA sits at .286 while he has just a .247 wOBA through his first 21 games. He’s actually striking out less than last year, and drawing more walks, so it’s not exactly a discipline issue. His xBA is also .255, which checks in two points higher than it finished a year ago.

From an exit velocity standpoint, Miranda is generating a similar level of hard hit contact. That signifies he is making good contact when putting the bat on the ball. One of the first issues that jumps out though, is how he is putting the ball in play. With a 50% ground ball rate, he’s throwing away so much of how he generally finds success, and he’s giving opposing defenses more easy opportunities to convert batted balls into outs.

Nothing about how Miranda is being attacked suggests that opposing pitchers have made substantial changes. If anything, it’s in what Miranda is currently going after that is holding him back. He is chasing a bit less than last season which is a good thing, but he is making less contact both inside and outside of the zone. His whiff rate is only slightly elevated, but finding himself in negative counts means that Miranda is often faced with the need to hit out of a pitcher’s preferred sequence.

For a hitter with this level of contact ability, and a significant profile to drive the baseball, there is no reason to suggest what we are currently seeing will be indicative of the results when the dust settles. Miranda is young and still developing, but he’s so advanced as a hitter that this will likely just be a period of time when looking at 2023 as a whole.

Hitting is difficult, and poor weather makes things that much more troublesome. Miranda is certainly aware of his results right now, and for a guy looking to surpass his power numbers from a season ago, he’ll dial things in as the season goes on. You’d certainly rather have a playing going through a rough patch than seem to have a broken process, and that’s where this situation stands at the moment.

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[Althebum82]

Great analysis.  It is certainly easy to have concerns with the results so far, but if I recall correctly he was off to a slow start last year, turned things around after his "return" and then cooled off the last month.  The defensive improvement is encouraging.  However I would be curious to see what his offensive splits were for June-August versus Apri-May and September combined so far.  There is certainly no indication in his minor league career that he is a cold weather underachiever, but it would be interesting to see the comparison.

[Guest]

Nice work.  I recall Miranda started slowly last year and then picked it up once the weather warmed.  Wonder how this year compares to the first 20-odd games he played in 2022....

[FlyingFinn]

He's got a 5 game hitting streak with 7 hits in those games. What he doesn't have is the extra base hits. I think he's ready to start elevating the ball like last year. 

[Doctor Gast]

I think also that although 3B is his more natural position yet MLB level 3B is quite different. Last year he was having some difficulty at 3B and this year I immagine most of his attention is focused there. Once he feels more comfortable there & adjusting to the pitching, I believe his hitting will turn around.

[wabene]

Half kidding here. A friend recently mentioned that while on vacation in California his family went to a park on a 60 degree day. His kids were in shorts and flip flops while the native California kids were in puffy coats and winter hats. The MLB has many players from Latin America and the US born players are predominantly from the warm weather states. Since we can't get all our players from Wisconsin, like Noah Miller, we need another solution. Let's get all these guys to winter in Minnesota. Do their own shoveling. Take their kids sledding. Go ice fishing, Nordic skiing, whatever it takes. And no balaclavas damnit!

(I could care less about the balaclavas or whatever they wear as long as they produce)

[DJL44]

Patiently waiting for Royce Lewis to take his job.

[Major League Ready]

37 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Patiently waiting for Royce Lewis to take his job.

Why would you want him to fail?  I would much prefer he get back to the form where he was a dominant bat like he was June-August last year.  Lewis and his athleticism could be better utilized elsewhere.  He could play all three OF positions and fill-in at SS / 2B as needed.  He could even take over 2B from Polanco at some point in the next couple years.  I just don't understand fans hoping a young player with a high ceiling will need to be replaced.   

Ironically, there was very similar dialogue from many people here last year right before he went off.  Given this history, I think we should all be hoping for what he is capable of instead of writing him off.

[FanSince1961]

Decent analysis but, again, unnecessarily hard to follow in spots:

Just one example:  "However, the .651 OPS over his final 45 games as opponents adjusted to him too numbers down by a significant amount."

Perhaps "As opponents adjusted to him last season, his numbers trended significantly lower.  Miranda had just a .651 OPS over his final 45 games."

I raise these concerns as a fan and supporter of your site.  Try running your writing through https://hemingwayapp.com/.  Its a great tool. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I have no doubt that he'll come around.  Just gotta give him some more time.  Way too early to give up on him.  Maybe when Lewis is ready to step in at 3B if he has not yet gotten on track then it would be time to send him back down.  They also can start subbing Farmer at 3B when he comes back and by then maybe he can DH some (assuming Buxton goes to CF) and that would take his mind off of fielding so he can focus in on hitting.

Lewis is a July option & things need to shift by mid-May. Seems like, at this point, Lee may be an option. Farmer helps v. LH pitching but not much difference v. RH pitching.

Miranda - Gordon - Larnach (hopefully) - Kepler - Correa all just need another 15 games. Still have 7 games left in April - EARLY!!

[Harrison Greeley III]

I've been assuming the shoulder issues he was dealing with in March have taken away his ability to swing confidently for power. It seems like one of those things that he can play through, but in August or next season he'll get hot and he will make comments like 'my shoulder is healthy again after a long time of not being right, etc.'  

[Dave The Dastardly]

If I recall correctly, Miranda has traditionally been a slow-starter right thru his time in the minor leagues. Cooler weather also has to be a factor, especially during this fake "spring". Temps 20 degrees below average in what's normally a cool month anyway doesn't lend itself towards "loosening up". I'll start worrying about Miranda if his bat hasn't warmed up by mid-May, assuming of course we're in the 70's by then. Which is never a sure thing for Minnesota. I believe the last frost date average for us is May 15. That translates to puffy coats for outdoor baseball 'till June.

[DJL44]

28 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would you want him to fail?

I don't. I think Lewis is a better baseball player and the Twins are a better team with Lewis at 3B long term instead of Miranda. Do I want Michael Taylor to fail if I think the Twins are better off with Buxton in CF?

Miranda's biggest problem at the moment is his lack of power. Just 2 extra base hits in 96 plate appearances. He's better than that. The batting average and walks are not a big surprise, just slightly below expectations. He's only 2 hits below last season's rate for AVG/OBP.

In two weeks he will have played one season's worth of games in the big leagues. Then you can start to project based on that larger sample of work.

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, FanSince1961 said:

Decent analysis but, again, unnecessarily hard to follow in spots:

Just one example:  "However, the .651 OPS over his final 45 games as opponents adjusted to him too numbers down by a significant amount."

Perhaps "As opponents adjusted to him last season, his numbers trended significantly lower.  Miranda had just a .651 OPS over his final 45 games."

I raise these concerns as a fan and supporter of your site.  Try running your writing through https://hemingwayapp.com/.  Its a great tool. 

Agree 100%.  I find it maddening to spend time reading the same sentence multiple times in order to determine what the poster was trying to say.  It only takes a few seconds to re-read your post before hitting the Submit Comment button. 

Note:  It took about 20 seconds to re-read this post and make needed corrections.

[wabene]

7 hours ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

I've been assuming the shoulder issues he was dealing with in March have taken away his ability to swing confidently for power. It seems like one of those things that he can play through, but in August or next season he'll get hot and he will make comments like 'my shoulder is healthy again after a long time of not being right, etc.'  

I'm not so sure about that Harrison. He played all spring with the shoulder and raked, smacking five homers I think. I chalk it up to the weather. He was fine in Florida after all. Many of these guys have very limited experience with cold weather.

[joefish]

I think his swing looks good. He is making contact. I believe that he is gonna hit his way put of this funk. Along with the majority of his teammates who are all under-hitting. 

I hope

[mikelink45]

Put me down as a Miranda believer.  He will come around soon.

[Linus]

I believe he will hit. I don’t believe he will ever be anything but a DH on a good club. He is not good in the field. 

[Aerodeliria]

I think Seth nailed it. He just needs to be a bit more patient. He's not the type of hitter who is going to excel by offering at pitches out of the zone.

[cjj td]

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Why would you want him to fail?  I would much prefer he get back to the form where he was a dominant bat like he was June-August last year.  Lewis and his athleticism could be better utilized elsewhere.  He could play all three OF positions and fill-in at SS / 2B as needed.  He could even take over 2B from Polanco at some point in the next couple years.  I just don't understand fans hoping a young player with a high ceiling will need to be replaced.   

Ironically, there was very similar dialogue from many people here last year right before he went off.  Given this history, I think we should all be hoping for what he is capable of instead of writing him off.

Because his defense is brutal and we already have too many DHs.

[jkcarew]

I'm not buying the 'swinging at pitcher's pitches' thing.

His walk rate is up this year...fairly significantly. He's showing patience. He's not hitting the ball as hard and he's hitting it on the ground more. Swing related in my opinion.

[tony&rodney]

On 4/24/2023 at 8:59 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Lee may be an option.

Lee is a ways off. Watch his games at AA. He is fielding really well but his bat is still in the transition stage. Yes, the stats are there but he is not controlling his at bats enough to get to St. Paul yet. Hopefully Brooks Lee gets promoted to AAA by July, maybe even June. At that point the Twins will be much more focused on what he can contribute in the future. Lee is highly thought of in the organization at this time.

[stringer bell]

I would say that Miranda has been a disappointment so far, but it doesn't take long to change that perception. A couple of good games would make his numbers acceptable. With Kyle Farmer still out, there really isn't anyone to step in for Miranda, so maybe the leash is a bit longer for him. 

Despite having the most experience defensively at third base, Miranda still looks like a work in progress at the hot corner.