What Does Taylor Rogers' Contract Tell Us About the Free Agent RP Market?

[Nick Nelson]

Last week, former Twins closer Taylor Rogers reached agreement with the San Francisco Giants. 

The size and length of the reliever's new deal came as a shock, offering insight about what the Twins can expect should they venture into the relief market to spend their remaining dollars.

Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Giants and Taylor Rogers reportedly agreed last Friday to a three-year deal worth $33 million. This kind of contract wouldn't have been to surprising had it been signed, say, mid-way through the 2021 season, during which Rogers was an All-Star for the Twins. 

But he missed the last two months of that season with a finger injury, and then struggled his way through 2022 for two different teams, posting a 4.35 ERA for the Padres and then 5.48 down the stretch in Milwaukee.

His underlying metrics were not bad – we'll get to that shortly – and Rogers had a very strong prior track record. Also, we know the Giants had money to burn after whiffing on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa.

Still... Thirty-three million dollars?! For a guy who had all the looks of a buy-low candidate fishing for a make-good deal? In this economy?!?

Even in a clearly inflated free agent market, I find this deal stunning and fascinating. Even if Rogers wasn't a top target for the Twins – sure seems that way – there are some implications worth exploring in terms of what this means for a potential pursuit of remaining free agent relievers.

First: 

The cost for free agent relief pitching is astronomical.

We already knew this long before Rogers signed. Edwin Diaz struck the biggest payday for a relief pitcher in history. Roberto Suarez ($46M) and Rafael Montero ($34.5M) received contracts that are pretty much unprecedented for non-closers. 

This contract for Rogers is merely another piece of supporting evidence to confirm what we already knew: in order to acquire impact relief pitching in free agency, the Twins will need to move well past their comfort zone.

To contextualize, the $33 million deal Rogers got coming off a bad year is twice the size of the largest contract the Twins have ever given a free agent reliever (2 years, $16.75 million for Addison Reed). At the time, Reed was an elite late-inning arm, coming off a great season and three years younger than Rogers is now.

Further context: if the Twins signed Rogers to the same deal he got from San Francisco, it would rank as the third-largest sum handed to a free agent in seven years under this front office (sixth-largest in franchise history). That distinction currently belongs to Christian Vazquez and his $30 million contract signed earlier this offseason.

And to reiterate, Rogers was NOT GOOD this past season. At no point was he a reliable late-inning fixture resembling his prime years in Minnesota. The lefty was bad enough in San Diego that the championship-obsessed Padres traded for an upgrade in Josh Hader at the deadline (didn't quite work out). After getting traded to Milwaukee, Rogers posted a negative-1.02 Win Probability Added for a Brewers team that missed the postseason by ... one game. 

Rogers was not only bad, but very consequentially bad, which is the same statement you can make about the guy Minnesota traded him for: Emilio Pagan. Would anyone have been excited about the Twins signing Rogers on these terms, even though it ostensibly meets the need to spend money and show initiative?

Actually, invoking Pagan brings me to the other big revelation from examining Rogers' new deal with the Giants:

Teams are paying for indicators over results.

I should clarify that when I say Rogers was bad last year, I mean his results were bad, not necessarily his underlying indicators of performance. Some would say that's a distinction without a difference, but to the Giants and whoever helped run up the bidding on Rogers, clearly it's not.

On the surface, the narrative seems clear: 

• Rogers was plagued by a serious finger issue in 2021.
• The Twins traded him just ahead of the 2022 season, at least in part because they were concerned about lingering effects from that injury on an extremely slider-reliant pitcher.
• They were right. Rogers scuffled through the worst season of his career. And now the Giants, who just backed out of a mega-deal with Correa because of an eight-year-old ankle injury, are paying $33 million to inherit all of this risk and apparent decline.

But when you take a deeper look, this version of events doesn't quite hold up. If Rogers' finger was truly affecting him, you'd expect to see tangible signs of it: diminishing velocity, reduced spin rate, wayward control. None of that was really the case. 

Rogers' 2.7 BB/9 rate was a bit high by his standards, but hardly terrible. His K/9 rate (11.8) and K% (30.7%) were both above his career benchmarks. His home run rate was typical (about one per nine innings). 

There were no signs of trouble gripping and executing a featured slider that produced a .191 batting average and 38% whiff rate, while leaned on to a higher degree than ever before. 

The Giants paid Rogers based on these qualities, not the ugly ERA or the season-altering breakdowns on the mound. Which is an interesting dynamic when you think about Pagan and the Twins.

Many of the same things we're saying here about Rogers can be applied to Pagan, whose contract tender from Minnesota in November raised a lot of ire from the fan base. The case for Pagan outperforming his peripherals isn't quite as compelling – he had a 4.21 FIP compared to 3.31 for Rogers – but in both cases, the stuff is undeniable and there's big upside beyond what we see on the stats page. 

After seeing Rogers get $33 million from San Francisco, it becomes a bit easier to grasp the idea that Minnesota had several trade suitors lining up for Pagan, and that his projected $3.7 million contract could be viewed as somewhat of a bargain.

Of course, it's unlikely this will change anyone's opinion on Pagan. And bringing him back will certainly not stand on its own as a satisfactory approach to reinforcing the Twins bullpen, in anyone's eyes.

Luckily, there are still quite a few interesting arms out there on the free agent relief market, which has developed more slowly than starters and hitters. Assuming the Twins miss out on Correa again, and don't sign Nathan Eovaldi, there are few other obvious places to focus their remaining budget and make an impact. 

Building a bullpen that is ultra-deep on quality options, to offset question marks in the rotation and protect against key reliever injuries or setbacks, would seem to be one of the few remaining paths for an offseason that legitimately positions the Twins as assertive contenders.

Read More: Looking Toward the Bullpen Market by Cody Pirkl

There's already a very solid foundation in place, so the addition of an arm or two like – say – Matt Moore or Andrew Chafin or even our old friend Michael Fulmer could have outsized benefit. But as the Rogers contract illustrates, none of these guys will be coming at a bargain and whichever route they go, the Twins will likely have to overpay on faith. Something this front office doesn't tend to do.

Yet, something's gotta give if the Twins want to demonstrate to their fans that they give a dang about making a push in 2023. Thus far their moves have felt more obligatory (Vazquez, Kyle Farmer) or confusing and lateral (Pagan, Joey Gallo) than strategic. The relief market offers opportunities for more purposeful, decisive upgrades ... if Minnesota's willing to meet the price.

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[old nurse]

Harder had 0 runs in the post season. He did his job

[roger]

I am happy for him now that he gets to play with his brother.  The contract is another example of how ridiculous things are getting.  Interesting that after reading this I have hope that the Twins may get a big year from Pagan.  Wouldn’t that be something?

[old nurse]

Free agency is a game of chicken. There are only so many impact players available. Rogers had a bad season, but not a bad career thus far. It seems like the Giants have a pretty good track record turning around pitchers. If they get Rogers back on track they have a bargain compared to the other contracts. The Twins on the other hand have not turned around anyone. Parts of good seasons from Odo and Pineda but not anything that makes you go wow.  It does not help that Reed’s career died in Minnesota, as did Joe Smith’s. It may be tough for them to pick up a reliever

[Mark G]

When will we face the fact that any player, from RP to UTL players, cost?  If they are not in their beginning years with no leverage in contract negotiations, they are going to cost money.  And a lot of it.  It is what it is.  Pay or be left with the best of the rest.  There is simply too much competition for players today to putz around hoping for reasonable (and I use that term very loosely), contracts.  Identify the positions you need, and the players you want to fill those positions, and offer what is needed to acquire them or play the young guys and accept where you finish!!

Mic dropped!

[Florida Flash]

I keep thinking the teams will spend themselves into oblivion with these insane contracts, but it never seems to happen. The fans just pay more and more and more but that doesnt drive enough fans away to send a message to baseball FO's. Good for the players if they can get it.

[DocBauer]

A well written article Nick, with some great observations. The difference between Rogers and Pagan is Rogers has had a much better career thus far, and was coming off an injury, and probably wasn't used properly. Pagan has been pretty much just bad except for 1yr of his career. Someone who likes his underlying peripherals and pry him from the Twins with a decent offer. Please!

I like the base of our pen, especially if we actually account for at least one solid middle man this year. Two would be awesome. I have a lot of belief in Moran and Alcala to be bug parts of our pen. But why lock them in to a spot when we have the opportunity to add at least 1, if not 2, previously proven arms to create the best and deepest bullpen we can?

Would be nice if they could still come up with a quality RH batter ad well, but maxing out the pen deepens the STAFF as a whole.

[USAFChief]

Two points:

1. further proof the Rogers trade was a poor decision. Really poor. Really, really, really poor. 

 

2. Christian Vasquez's 3/$30 is the THIRD LARGEST FA CONTRACT IN FRANCHISE HISTORY. Holy cow.

 

 

[Jester]

29 minutes ago, Florida Flash said:

I keep thinking the teams will spend themselves into oblivion with these insane contracts, but it never seems to happen. The fans just pay more and more and more but that doesnt drive enough fans away to send a message to baseball FO's.

Exactly.  This is why baseball fans need to go on strike.  Evidently in this "tough economy", the owners have plenty of money to spend.  Earlier this year, the lockout was caused by billionaire owners fighting millionaire players over the almighty dollar.  Looks like both sides have plenty of it.  Well, they lost my dollar.   I will never, ever spend another dime again on baseball, whether it's a game, merchandise, or a TV package to watch from home.  

 

[Nick Nelson]

59 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

2. Christian Vasquez's 3/$30 is the THIRD LARGEST FA CONTRACT IN FRANCHISE HISTORY. Holy cow.

Actually I mis-phrased that. Third-largest under this front office; fifth-largest in franchise history. Just fixed.

[BsuNemo]

At what point to we stop saying "the contract is astronomical" and just realize that's the world we live in. Our 60k salaries are now worth 30k. A 5 million dollar contract is now worth 30 mil and the only way to get someone to sign is to pay them for years they will be obsolete... Not to mention, only the rich can truly afford to go to more than a few games a year in person. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Actually I mis-phrased that. Third-largest under this front office; fifth-largest in franchise history. Just fixed.

1. Correa, 2. Donaldson, 3. Ervin Santana

 

...who am I missing?

[mikelink45]

If they are that valuable maybe we can dump (trade) Pagan and Lopez for some future value.

[h2oface]

"And to reiterate, Rogers was NOT GOOD this past season. At no point was he a reliable late-inning fixture resembling his prime years in Minnesota. "

Well, for his first 12 appearances of the year he had given up no runs at all. 11 saves, 4 hits total, one walk and one HB. He finally gave up one on May 10th.

Thru May 27th - 20.1 innings, 20 appearances (4 times the dreaded back to back days that he always had trouble with on the Twins), 17 Saves in 17 opportunities, 23 Ks, 4 walks, 3 HB (2 in the game he gave up a run but still got the save), 9 total hits, 1 run, .132 BA against, ,44 ERA and .64 WHIP!

That is Cy Young votes in 2020 for a 2 month season, the kind that made some declare Maeda an Ace! As I was paying attention to it happening, I thought they were using him too much, and that might be the case. But I would say for 2 months, and not "at no point", that he was "a reliable late-inning fixture resembling his prime years in Minnesota", and it might have even been the best consecutive 2 months of his career.

The last 4 months were definitely NOT GOOD, but the first 2 months made Pagan look even more horrid, if that was possible. And the trade for Hader at the end of July (both Hader and Rogers had a magnificent first 2 months and had strugged since).... Hader's July was even worse than Roger's! So it seemed that both San Diego and Milwaukee were betting on each of them returning to form before the end of the year.

The market is overpaying everyone this year. So much for collusion theory....

[Nick Nelson]

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

1. Correa, 2. Donaldson, 3. Ervin Santana

 

...who am I missing?

The unforgettable Ricky Nolasco!

[Doctor Gast]

Nice job Nick, to show us what to expect. I think the problem with Pagan, Duffy & Rogers was that they were missed profiled. MN believed Pagan & Duffy could pitch high leverage, they failed miserably from the start. SD profiled Rogers as a classic closer (able to close consecutive games regularly) which surprisingly  he was elite and didn't give up a run in Apr. w/ 9 saves. He didn't give up a run until well into the 1st week in May. He had a pretty good May w/ 9 more saves. June is where he started to lose it. I was surprised that it didn't happen sooner because he's not a classic closer. SD had no idea how to use Rogers.

LaRussa is old school & tried to make Rodon into a classic SP (to pitch 7+ innings regularly). Because he fell short of LaRussa's expectations he was released. Teams were hesitant to sign Rodon for fear of his injury history. SF signed him and was able to profiled Rodon correctly by pitching him 5-6 innings sometime 7 if situation was right. Because of it they reaped the benefits. I believe they can profile Rogers correctly, and they can see his true value, that's why they offered that $33MM/ 3yr contract. I'm happy for Rogers for being in SF where he'll be used right & pitching w/ his brother.

 

[tony&rodney]

Is it possible that the Giants feel the Padres misused Taylor Rogers and see a strong fit in their bullpen? 2023 holds the answer. Teams are putting stock in relief pitchers, for sure.

[D.C Twins]

Great article Nick.... you actually convinced me that in this market, taking a 3.7 million flyer on Pagan was probably the right choice..... which is a complete 180 for me (and I don't feel good about it ;)

[DocBauer]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is it possible that the Giants feel the Padres misused Taylor Rogers and see a strong fit in their bullpen? 2023 holds the answer. Teams are putting stock in relief pitchers, for sure.

The Padres DID misuse Rogers based on his history with the Twins. He was reasonably effective against RH hitters, IIRC, and used in high leverage situations but not as a true closer who often pitched consecutive days. I believe his ERA when used on consecutive days rose something like a full run or more. He didn't just stink, but he was less effective to be sure.

The Padres, somehow, weren't aware of this and thought he could be a elite 30+ save guy. That's not who he has ever been.

I loved having Rogers in our pen. I would have liked him coming back...though I like some of the other remaining LH on the market...but I wouldn't have even considered the contract the Giants gave him.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

The unforgettable Ricky Nolasco!

I had to ask, didn't I?

[TopGunn#22]

How much would a guy with an electric arm (Alex Reyes) cost the Twins ??  

[RaoulDuke]

There is no where left to spend it, bring on the pen arms (they are always trade-able later).  Get Matt Moore/ Fulmer or some LH/ RH combo.

Duran

Lopez

FA

FA

Thielbar

Alcala

Pagan

Moran

Megill

Jax/ Winder/ Ober/ ect all ready to step in when needed (I am sure I am missing a ton).

Then when they pull the starters at 5 innings there is actual depth to replace them.

[darin617]

I say not much. The Giants are still on tilt after getting lucky and losing Correa. They also overpaid for Michael Conforto who never played last year. They are just trying to do something to appease their fans.

[Danchat]

We have the payroll, and since we're not landing Correa, why not splurge a little on the bullpen? We shouldn't make assumptions with so many question marks in the pen (Pagan, Lopez, Alcala to start), and the FO already blundered the pen in the first half last year by making Joe Smith the only FA acquisition. They shouldn't let the ghost of Addison Reed haunt them forever.

[Karbo]

16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

A well written article Nick, with some great observations. The difference between Rogers and Pagan is Rogers has had a much better career thus far, and was coming off an injury, and probably wasn't used properly. Pagan has been pretty much just bad except for 1yr of his career. Someone who likes his underlying peripherals and pry him from the Twins with a decent offer. Please!

I like the base of our pen, especially if we actually account for at least one solid middle man this year. Two would be awesome. I have a lot of belief in Moran and Alcala to be bug parts of our pen. But why lock them in to a spot when we have the opportunity to add at least 1, if not 2, previously proven arms to create the best and deepest bullpen we can?

Would be nice if they could still come up with a quality RH batter ad well, but maxing out the pen deepens the STAFF as a whole.

You are right on the $$ Doc. RP could make this team competitive if it is quality. It would also help a lot to try and get more IP from the starters or if they want to stick with their plan they need at least 2 middle RP capable of going at least 2 innings. Also, I don't know why they dragged their feet on a RH hitting OF. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The “holy cow” still stands. I can’t see this FO spending what it takes to get an impact reliever in free agency.

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Two points:

1. further proof the Rogers trade was a poor decision. Really poor. Really, really, really poor. 

 

2. Christian Vasquez's 3/$30 is the THIRD LARGEST FA CONTRACT IN FRANCHISE HISTORY. Holy cow.

 

 

How does a poor signing from the Giants prove the Rogers trade was a poor decision. He was terrible in MN without at least a days rest between appearances. Every year with TWINS!!

They lost half of ‘21 productivity due to his finger issues. Still paid him.

They let him go due to lack of availability and he was brutal blast year ……..worse than Pagan somehow. We have the potential (low expectations) of Paddock coming back from surgery & contributing.

How is this a “4x really poor” trade????

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

There is no where left to spend it, bring on the pen arms (they are always trade-able later).  Get Matt Moore/ Fulmer or some LH/ RH combo.

Duran

Lopez

FA

FA

Thielbar

Alcala

Pagan

Moran

Megill

Jax/ Winder/ Ober/ ect all ready to step in when needed (I am sure I am missing a ton).

Then when they pull the starters at 5 innings there is actual depth to replace them.

All about adding a reliever or 2!!

Am stuck on the known - Fulmer. Seems like a practical path for a signing. 2 years for $21M. Worst case.

Maybe a lefty - Moore is 42……sensible??? Hand - Britton? 

 

My Pen for TWINS:

FA we can sign …….Fulmer is choice #1

Jax

Maeda

Moran

Thielbar

Duran

Lopez …….would like to alter this somehow, stuck for now. No command in zone. Pagan clone - good stuff, no clue how to pitch!

Megill …….please develop a 3rd pitch, if only just for show

Cap it at 8 guys……..26 man roster

Alternates are Alcala - Winder.

Gotta move Pagan!!!!

[Whitey333]

Nice article.  I was going to point out that Rogers was actually very good for the Padres the first few weeks.  While he was saving them Pagan was blowing them.  Someone else did a great job reporting this.  Pagan is a joke and the Twins insistence on process over results cost us many games last year.  Pagan has been bad most of his career.  Rogers has overall had a decent career.  Also if baseball is trending to less importance and length placed on starting pitching, you better have a damn good bullpen.  The Twins have some but overall it's not that great.  If bullpens are pitching half the games each year they deserve big increases.  The fact that the Twins won't pay market value for the product they need is not unusual.  They bargain basement shop for their pitching staff and it shows.  IfJoey Gallo is able to command a job on the Twins at 11 million, Rogers and relief pitchers like him deserve it more.  Remember Gallo is a career .199 hitter.  Yes that is CAREER.  He also strikes out more often than Sano.  And he is a terrible clutch hitter.  The bullpen needs to be beefed up if the manager only lets starters go 5 or 6 innings.  The bullpen was burned out last season.  Twins need to pay at least market share.  Good relievers cost money.  Apparently Twins only want " affordable" ones.

[Rosterman]

I was...astonished. But Trevor May also got, what, $8m from...OAKLAND! Hell, you could sign starter RICH HILL for $8m and one year.

Can't wait to see how the demand market for Fulmer, Hand, Moore and...Wisler will play out. Heck, Joe Smith and Sergio ROmo are still out there (not to mention Alex Colome, Ralph Garza Jr. and, coming off a brilliant season in Mexico, Sam Dyson).

So many choices for the bullpen menu. And nothing too filling!