Twins Trade Candidate: Max Kepler

[Cody Christie]

Max Kepler is one of the longest-tenured Twins, but his time may be running out. With other young outfielders, will Minnesota look to trade Kepler?

Image courtesy of Denny Medley, USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota's roster has depth at multiple big-league positions, allowing the front office to exercise creativity this offseason. The current regime hasn't been afraid of making trades to solidify the roster and keep the team's winning window open as long as possible. As the offseason begins, it's essential to identify some of the team's possible trade candidates. 

What Did He Do in 2022? 
For the second consecutive season, Max Kepler posted a below-average OPS+. It's looking more like the 2019 campaign was a mirage regarding Kepler's offensive production. His average exit velocity, Hard Hit % and Barrel % all ranked in the 51st percentile or lower last season. While those numbers are disheartening, he does have good control of the strike zone as he ranks in the 78th percentile or higher in K%, BB%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. Most of his value comes on the defensive side of the ball, where he ranked in the 97th percentile for Outs Above Average. In 2022, SABR's Defensive Index ranks Kepler as the second-best AL right fielder, which has him on pace to be a Gold Glove finalist. 

Why is He a Trade Candidate?
Minnesota's outfield is quickly filling up with other younger outfield options that offer more long-term upside than Kepler. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner have emerged over the last three seasons and are entering the prime of their careers. There are no guarantees with any of these players, especially with Kirilloff and Larnach returning from injuries. Austin Martin is another prospect to consider in the outfield picture with an outstanding AFL performance. Other players like Nick Gordon and Gilberto Celestino will also get some opportunities in corner outfield spots. With all of these names, it's easy to see why Kepler can be expendable. 

What is His Trade Value?
Kepler is scheduled to make $8.5 million next season, but his contract can run through the 2024 season. The Twins hold a $10 million option for 2024 with a $1 million buyout. Fans who have been frustrated by Kepler's offensive performance might not realize how valuable his defense has been in recent years. Over the last two seasons, FanGraphs pegs Kepler's value at $34.4 million while the team paid him $13.25 million. He is an above-average big-league player with multiple years of team control on a team-friendly deal, which has significant trade value. A contending team may look at Kepler as one of the last pieces to help their club take the next step.  

Minnesota isn't forced to trade Kepler, but this front office has touted its creativity regarding roster creation. With younger options emerging, it might be the perfect time to trade Kepler. The team might be able to acquire a pitcher to help next year's roster, or the club can add to a minor league system that has recently dropped in national rankings. To keep the team's winning window open, it's critical to move on from veteran players at the right time. The time might be suitable to capitalize on a Kepler trade. 

Do you think the Twins will trade Kepler? What kind of value do you think he has? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-Gio Urshela
-Emilio Pagan

 

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[Major League Ready]

f course it all depends on the return but now is the time if we can get a decent return.  I like the idea of signing Haniger to get a RH OFer.  We have Larnach / Wallner, and Kirilloff from the left side.  I like the odds of filling the role between the three of them.  I am still ticked off they took Cavaco is team of Corbin Carroll who debuted this year and would be the perfect complement to this team given Buxton's injury history.  He had a wRC+ of 133 in his 1st 32 games and he is a great defender.  We would be in a great position to deal Kepler had they drafted Carroll.

[weitz41]

With the crutch of injuries sunk the 2022 season. My guess is they'll hold onto him till the trade deadline.

But if a package that fills the shortstop, catcher position or better yet a high end starting pitcher they may move him based on greater needs elsewhere. Any one of the Yankees, Marlins and Padres look like a good fit for a trade partner.

[Reptevia]

How much can we get for a defensive replacement type fielder?  I’ve said it before, Billy Hamilton can do what Kepler does for league minimum. We will be unable to get a ML player for Kepler even up. Having good defensive “metrics “ at the 2nd least important position isn’t going to bring anything back.  Maybe a former prospect that hasn’t so far panned out…

[The Mad King]

Like everyone else is saying, I don't see them getting value return. He needs to get back to swinging at first pitch strikes like he did in '19. 

His contact is team friendly and until these others can prove their ability to stay healthy, we kind of need him out there. 

[Blyleven2011]

Kepler has worn out his welcome as a hitter who doesn't make adjustments  ( mostly because Rocco bats him 4th and he doesn't belong there in the batting order  )  ...

His defense is another matter  and is definitely above average and keeps him in the lineup   ...

He has value in a trade but just how much I can't speculate  , there are suckers born every minute , trade him ...

[Dave The Dastardly]

"Minnesota isn't forced to trade Kepler, but this front office has touted its creativity regarding roster creation." Cody Christie

Huh? You mean the Twins penchant for acquiring broken-down pitchers in exchange for some of our better prospects? That creativity?

 

[Vanimal46]

I would trade him for a useful reliever, or perhaps package him with someone else for a decent starter.

Aaron Gleeman said it best on the recent podcast… Every team has a player that fans are tired of. Max Kepler is our tired player. Doesn’t mean he’s bad. We’re just tired of seeing his underlying metrics and wondering why he can’t put it together at the plate. 

[TopGunn#22]

Max is one of my favorite players on this current Twins team.  But I'm frustrated by his lack of adjustment offensively.  He is still a positive trade value and all you need is one trade partner to make something happen.  Weitz41 has identified three teams that could have interest.  I'd add Colorado to that list.  Certainly if I'm talking to Miami I'm angling for starting pitching.  The Marlins have tremendous pitching depth at the major league level as well as in the minors.  

It's also clear to me that SOMETHING has to give when you have Max, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner all left-hand hitting outfielders on a roster that desperately needs a RH bat in the mix.  

[TopGunn#22]

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value.  Not much you can do with that.  You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field.  His value is only 4.3.  That to me is a viable buy low candidate.

One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant.  He has a a negative 109 value.  His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup.  But...can he play 140-150 games?  What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ?  How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ?  A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.  

[jorgenswest]

Wherever he lands I hope he gets back to pulling the ball more. I think his attempt to make adjustments has led to more ground balls. While he is pulling the ball less he is also hitting it on the ground more often. He needs to go back to pulling the ball and get a greater launch angle.

[Nashvilletwin]

Love Max - one of my favourite Twins. But he doesn’t appear to be an ascending player at this point. Instead, the hitting data would suggest the opposite.  Max trade value for Max is probably more near term than mid-term. Pull the trigger on a trade, redeploy the capital, and provide space for the new young core. The old young core - Kepler, Sano, Polanco, and Berrios - will likely all be gone by the trade deadline at the latest.

Leider Max, aber es ist Zeit “Auf Wiedersehen” zu sagen. Viel Glueck mein Freund.

[tony&rodney]

Why did it seem like Kepler was unhappy the last year? No idea but his body language and facial expressions were definitely not one of a guy who enjoyed his job. Does this matter at all?

The crux of the matter remains whether any other team finds Kepler (or any Twin) appealing and potentially useful and worthy of acquiring via a trade. TD went over this same question last year and Miami was a prime contact suggestion.

The Twins could use a RH bat for the corner outfield and have some LH bats (others too) that they could give up. The Twins need to find out if Miami or Colorado, for example, have any interest in Kepler, etc. 

Maybe the Twins need to find out what state Kepler is in mentally too.

I'm hopeful that Kepler rebounds with two years that eclipse anything he has accomplished thus far in his career. 

 

[gman]

If they can't rob someone on a trade, which they probably can't, I hope they leave Kepler on the bench to start the year. Let some of the young outfielders play the field and show if they are ready. Kepler can backup all 3 outfield spots. He could start a couple of games a week and come in as a late inning defensive replacement. Maybe not automatically getting the starting nod, will help him focus on his hitting more.

[ashbury]

Kudos to the FO if they can get much for Max.  He's not a bad player - league average is nothing to scoff at because of the high level of overall talent - but he's past his inexpensive years, and other teams have corner OF players they may forecast to produce about as much for much less cost.  A contending team probably shoots for higher, a rebuilding team won't want a veteran like him.  If he goes it'll be part of a package, but I can't begin to guess what team(s) would bid for him - Phillies? Giants?  As with many trade candidates, he's probably just about as valuable as a RF/bench piece to his current team, as he'd bring back in trade.

[Danchat]

$34M value the past two years, seriously? His defense is good and he takes a lot of walks, but he was atrocious at the plate for long stretches of time, lost most of his HR power, and kept hitting into the shift. I had high expectations for Max and he's been a perennial disappointment since 2019. If a team is high on him and offers a substantial package I'd move him, but I would expect they hold onto him for one more year. Perhaps his numbers improve with the shift limitations, but he will be another year out of his prime too.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, gman said:

If they can't rob someone on a trade, which they probably can't, I hope they leave Kepler on the bench to start the year. Let some of the young outfielders play the field and show if they are ready. Kepler can backup all 3 outfield spots. He could start a couple of games a week and come in as a late inning defensive replacement. Maybe not automatically getting the starting nod, will help him focus on his hitting more.

They will do that in Spring Training and the Minors, NOT in the Majors where Wallner has already shown his fielding stinks.

[weitz41]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value.  Not much you can do with that.  You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field.  His value is only 4.3.  That to me is a viable buy low candidate.

One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant.  He has a a negative 109 value.  His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup.  But...can he play 140-150 games?  What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ?  How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ?  A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.  

I was looking at that earlier today (Kepler's trade value on BTV) The Rockies just never seen to follow the crowd, so I doubt they'll trade either no matter how bad the contracts are. Bryant isn't someone I considered. There's a lot to like there if he stays healthy and plays LF. BUT. Colardo is like a magic 8 ball when it comes to players and contracts..Not sure what to make of them.

[TopGunn#22]

Yeah, I threw Bryant out there because we REALLY need a RH bat and he would be a perfect fit in LF for the Twins.  But whoah baby, that contract is ridiculous!  How much would Colorado pay ?  I would really only consider Bryant if Correa leaves and the Twins add someone like Kiner-Falefa, a great glove, versatile at several positions, but not much more than a #9 hitter.  

[Linus]

I would keep Max and get a right handed hitting corner outfielder. I would make him compete for playing time with Wall er and Larnach and I would also make him the backup CF. My logic is there is far too great a chance that Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff will either be hurt or ineffective. Gordon is my backup and Celestino spends the year in St Paul preparing for next year. 

[RpR]

39 minutes ago, Linus said:

I would keep Max and get a right handed hitting corner outfielder. I would make him compete for playing time with Wall er and Larnach and I would also make him the backup CF. My logic is there is far too great a chance that Larnach Wallner and Kiriloff will either be hurt or ineffective. Gordon is my backup and Celestino spends the year in St Paul preparing for next year. 

I agree with you except Wallner will  be in AAA and Larnach is the big question.

[Dr Katz]

If the Twins pay Correa more than they have already agreed to then they will suffer the consequences when they cant sign other needed help. One player, even that good, cannot win titles alone. Correa is too expensive to break the budget for. 

[Doctor Gast]

8 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Baseball Trade Values simulator only gives Kepler a 5.6 value.  Not much you can do with that.  You could trade Kepler to Colorado even up for German Marquez, a 27 year old SP who has underperformed the last couple years but still has good stuff and could benefit from a ticket out of Coors Field.  His value is only 4.3.  That to me is a viable buy low candidate.

One interesting player Colorado has is Kris Bryant.  He has a a negative 109 value.  His contract is bloated and he can't stay healthy but his RH bat in LF could be a tremendous addition to the middle of the Twins lineup.  But...can he play 140-150 games?  What else could the Twins get back from the Rockies if they took Bryant off their hands ?  How much of that contract would Colorado be willing to pay ?  A conversation with them would indicate whether it's even realistic.  

I've recommend CO before &  I had basicly traded Kepler for  Marquez at BTV. I like Kepler and IMO Kepler could revitalize his career in Coors Field. I think Marquez could flurish here away from Coors. FO will have to sell the deal but I believe everyone could come out ahead in that deal.

[h2oface]

Trade him to Colorado so he can win a batting title like Morneau and Cuddyer.

[Fred]

8 hours ago, gman said:

If they can't rob someone on a trade, which they probably can't, I hope they leave Kepler on the bench to start the year. Let some of the young outfielders play the field and show if they are ready. Kepler can backup all 3 outfield spots. He could start a couple of games a week and come in as a late inning defensive replacement. Maybe not automatically getting the starting nod, will help him focus on his hitting more.

The new Jake Cave?

[DJL44]

I thought it could be interesting to trade him to the Rays for Manuel Margot. He's RH and a good fielder but underwhelming at the plate just like Kepler. The Rays want to add more lefties to their lineup. The Twins need more offense vs LHP.

[Rosterman]

He is still as good or better than what we trotted out in 2022. If I was a team outside, and was moving an "expensive piece" (shortstop, catcher, rotation arm) I would probably take a gamble of Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino or Wallner if I could pry them from the Twins...even before one year an an option on Kepler. 

Yes, Kepler has clearly shown what he could do.

If he wasn't injured, I kept thinking the Twins might've dealt him at the last trade deadline...except everyone else was on the list. And since he didn't finish the season, we were stuck with Garlick.

[dxpavelka]

You mean all those young outfielders who can't stay healthy?  I remember a couple years back when we jettisoned Eddie Rosario rather than pay him a similar number.  LF has been a revolving door ever since and we haven't sniffed the post-season.   But sure, let's double down.

[Major League Ready]

52 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

You mean all those young outfielders who can't stay healthy?  I remember a couple years back when we jettisoned Eddie Rosario rather than pay him a similar number.  LF has been a revolving door ever since and we haven't sniffed the post-season.   But sure, let's double down.

Since we "jettisoned" Rosario he has been below replacement level.  Please enlighten us as to how it was a mistake to jettison a replacement level player.  The premise we would have a shot at the post season had we kept a guy that performed worse than the players that replaced him is ridiculous.

[Thebigalguy]

I expect the Twins will keep him one more year. He'll benefit now that the shift is limited, though why players are too stultified to beat shifts I've never understood. Bunt the damn ball when they shift! His defense helps the pitchers, especially if Buxton in center can stay healthy. The only thing that falls is rain. Of course, as so many of you have speculated, there's no reason why the Twins can't entertain offers if they let it be known he's available for the right player(s). Some teams with sterling hitting coaches might take the bait in the hope that they can transform him into what he was for one, glorious, pre-contract-extension season.