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What types of trades should Twins pursue?


Trade rumors are starting to rumble, and will hit high gear after the ASG. What/who should Twins target?

This Bleacher piece is 6 weeks old, and hoping it hasnt already been featured in previous posts. If so, my bad.

If not, it's fascinating. It's logic leads me to believe Twins should strengthen the 6/7th inning RP roles, by trade (or even internally....would Archer profile for this, or Bundy? )

All comments and ideas welcome!

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2955675-the-newest-trend-taking-over-mlb-in-2022-and-beyond

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Remember back in '17 when we were trying to decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline?  The fans (and players too, for that matter) wanted to buy.  We had a chance to go somewhere, and ultimately did end up with the 2nd wild card spot.  The FO decided to sell, and traded Kintzler, our closer, who was having a pretty darn good year.   I would like to see a trade of that kind with a team that is out of it and is looking ahead to the future.  A RP along the lines of what Kintzler was might be the difference in a lot of games.  

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I would still be looking for a SP (Montas ?) so that Archer could fill that long/middle guy role and a closer like Lopez or Bednar so that I could double up with Duran and whomever that would be.  Better pitchers with better stuff (back end types) push everyone in the pen down a peg.  But I'm also looking for guys I would have for the rest of this year and beyond.  I'm not making any trades that are a short term rental unless I "steal" the guy.  The trade has to be made for the "now" and the future.  

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For the post season, Archer could fill a middle inning role, as he is unlikely to slot as a top 4 starter, at least right now if everyone we have is  healthy.  That being said, we do not know health, and I am assuming the likes of Smeltzer, Winder, Ober are still pitching like they have shown so far this year.  If they drop off near post season then Archer should slot in the top 4, if for nothing else his experience.  I do feel the Twins could upgrade the pen overall, but would not want to overspend on any "closer" as we do not follow that normal trend.  

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1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would still be looking for a SP (Montas ?) so that Archer could fill that long/middle guy role and a closer like Lopez or Bednar so that I could double up with Duran and whomever that would be.  Better pitchers with better stuff (back end types) push everyone in the pen down a peg.  But I'm also looking for guys I would have for the rest of this year and beyond.  I'm not making any trades that are a short term rental unless I "steal" the guy.  The trade has to be made for the "now" and the future.  

I like your train of thought. Through June Archer was trending better as the month progressed until his last start. Another start or two or progress would give me some comfort with him as a starter.

Bundy on the other hand, scares the heck out of me. I don’t want to see him in the bullpen either. It seems there are good options internally as we see improving health with Ober, and Winder.

I’d like to see a trade for the back of the bullpen type (as you suggested a couple of great but expensive options) and potentially promote or convert a minor leaguer. Maybe Sands could see some oomph on his fastball in the bullpen.

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At least 2, preferably 3 bullpen arms. As things stand today, there are a lot of teams jockeying for position before making a decision to buy or sell. 4 teams in the AL East who have a reasonable chance at making the playoffs. Cleveland and White Sox still hanging in there. 3 teams in the NL East and West with playoff aspirations.

A few of these teams are going to run out of time and determine it’s best to sell for next year and beyond. Who those teams are? Who knows. 

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Bolstering the bullpen has to be priority 1. Just be prepared to pay, because it'll be a sellers market.

 

And as an aside, let's stop pretending each winter that "the bullpen is fine," "relievers are easy to find," "relievers are fungible," and all the other excuses.

Baseball has changed. Bullpens take on more innings seemingly every year, grow more important every year, and require seemingly endless options. 

We'll need to spend prospects this year. But I'd really like this pursuit to get more attention year round in the future.

 

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I'd like to see relief pitchers who throw good sliders or bat busting cutters.  David Robertson is a slider guy who should be available from Cubs, Zach Thompson on Pittsburgh was a quick Google find for pitchers with good cutters.  Just someone to face Judge in the 7th inning who won't just end up hanging one.

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Since Archer and Maeda can bolster the pen, I think we should focus on a starter like Montas or Castillo.  Second should be one more reliever.  Or if we have a major injury between now and the trade deadline we may need to trade for a short term replacement…..

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What's interesting about this article is pointing up the shifting paradigm in managing pitching rotations.

But then it's hard to gauge where the Twins' FO sits on this spectrum. Trading Berrios indicates one thing, trading Rogers another. Maybe the consistency there is a decision not to extend contracted pitchers at FA market rates-whether that rate is length, cost or some combo of the two.

If so, for Twins, it would then be about identifying controllable pitcher (define controllable? , IDK, pick a #, but guessing at least 1.5 yrs + of control for any mid-season trades), performing at or above their salary, who are flippable in future years, or whom the FO is willing to let walk if their FA contract projections exceed Twins' willingness to commit budget.

That feels like a narrow lane to occupy. And the cost to the Twins will be in prospect capital, moreso than financial capital. They do have prospect capital this year to be competitive bidders, if they wish.

But the whole situation just "feels" off this year. We traded our best SP and best RP in a matter of 6 months, clearly not expecting to be in this position, and now that we are, will they reverse course, and concede some of the prospect capital they gained to improve quality, especially BP,  for the 2nd-half run? Or, just try moving internal pieces around the chessboard, since they were not investing in a playoff run this year anyhow? Or, the 3rd, maybe likeliest scenario, find the "under the radar" flyer type who they think they can squeeze better performance from, with minimal further stretch to the payroll? Again, narrow lane thing.

I have no idea. But it does seem like July will be a really interesting month that might reveal more about their long-term strategy for roster construction, at least the pitching staff.

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Yeah, one dominant reliever and another really nice piece or two for the pen. Strikeouts are a must. No playoff losses due to seeing-eye groundballs, bloop singles or poor calls in the field by the umps. 

They can get a starter if they so choose, but I'm pretty particular about those, and I don't tend to like many of the names frequently mentioned.

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I'm in agreement with everyone who says the bullpen is the biggest area of need. They could try Canterino out once he's healthy, but they need more than one new arm, and the trade route seems more likely to work out. Someone mentioned David Robertson as a possibility. Arizona also has a couple of guys that would be nice to have.

A starter would be another option. If the playoffs were to start today, the ALDS rotation would be Gray, Ryan, and either Archer or Smeltzer (personally I'd go with the lefty; there's also a good probability they'd use a four man rotation for the divisional round). The first two have the ability to keep them in the game with anyone, but that third spot would have me a little nervous. Montas is the obvious name, and he'd be solid. If the Phillies fall out of it, I'd love to see them make a run at Aaron Nola. Picking up a starter would allow them to move Archer and/or Smeltzer to the pen. I think the latter's stuff would play up. Archer probably is what he is, and I'd only use him if the game is already out of hand.

 

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The bullpen is the biggest area of need.  However, we have Maeda coming back from TJ and Canterino in the minors if healthy, Archer, Ober, Winder could all be moved to the pen from the rotation as well.  
 

the big need is a front line starter or as frontline as we can get.  Montas or Castillo are the top 2 choices.  

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I don't feel like this is the year to go all in. Ryan and Winder have been very pleasant surprises. Then there are a handful of other pitchers coming soon, not to mention that until this year Duran was a starter.

If our rotation next year ends up Ryan, Gray, Duran, Winder plus pick the best of Smeltzer, Ober, Balazovic, Paddack. I don't want to sell off a ton of peices to replace that unless we are getting someone that is going to slot in above all of them long term, which I just don't see that happening.

 

When that is coupled with Larnach, Kiriloff, and Miranda getting a full season under their belts, I would rather the front office to wait until next year to push all their chips in.

 

That doesn't mean I want them to sit still. If they can extend Correa, I would look at trading Lewis, but only if you can extend Correa, and then only for high quality controllable pitching (back end of the bullpen imo)

 

Then work on clearing up the log jam. There have been multiple places where I have seen it said there is no place for Kiriloff right now. Make a place by trading away one of the peices blocking him (Urshela, Kepler, Larnach) or trade him.

I think if those trades can bring in a bp arm or two that would bump Duran down the pecking order. I would be thrilled.

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47 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm looking at the Nationals. I could see both Bell and Rainey as good fits that improve our club. 

 

 

Speaking of the Nationals, I wonder if Nelson Cruz is basically free to whomever is willing to eat his entire contract.

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4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Speaking of the Nationals, I wonder if Nelson Cruz is basically free to whomever is willing to eat his entire contract.

Yeah... I'd imagine it would be a very small ask to acquire our friend.  

I've never seen free in a trade. The Eddie Rosario deal between the Indians and Braves was about as close to free as I can recall.

My wife is currently listening to trade offers for me. She has an offer for a 1 year old 34 piece socket set in return but she will have to include our painting of dogs playing poker to make the numbers work. 

 

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12 hours ago, KScott said:

I would rather the front office to wait until next year to push all their chips in.

And if next year starts out like 21, then wait until 24?

The Twins are in first with the worst case scenario with injuries that any of us could have imagined, and have some holes that everybody can see, this is the year to fill those bullpen holes. (I don't think they should trade for a top tier starting pitcher, because it will be just too expensive in terms of prospects and seemingly goes against what the front office is trying to build). On top of they traded that type of pitcher away last year, and my guess is it will cost more than they got in return for Berrios and I don't believe this FO thinks that high priced long term deals for pitchers are worth it for the reasons @Major League Ready has mentioned about 100 times.

The Twins minor leagues are filled with guys that could return them bullpen arms without gutting or really denting the pipeline.

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If I'm trading anything worthwhile it's for Montas or Castillo, and that's it. Ryan and Gray are 2 guys that can start playoff games. Montas or Castillo would be the only ones I want because they're the only 2 that would slot in above those guys. Ober or Winder as the 4th guy in the postseason rotation would be good for me. 

I think Archer, Maeda, and Alcala would be 3 big time additions to the pen down the stretch and for the playoffs. So the question for me is if Archer would be willing to accept that role, and what they expect from Maeda and Alcala as far as health is concerned. Sounds like Alcala is expected back in a couple weeks so they'll have a good idea about him before the deadline. I'd have Moran up to really see if he can be a counted on piece in the pen so I'm not sure what the strategy is with him right now.

I don't think they need to bring in any extra bats. I think they need to get Kirilloff up and be ready to go "top 9" come playoff time/the stretch run. Give Sanchez the #1 catcher role and quit DHing a catcher. I believe Kirilloff is the 4th or 5th best hitter in this organization and don't get the "there's no room for him" arguments. DH, LF, RF, 1B. There's more than enough ABs for him between those 4 spots. I agree bench guys need to get semi-regular ABs to stay sharp, but not at the expense of Kirilloff, Buxton, Arraez, Correa, or Polanco (when they're healthy).

So for me the trades I'd be looking at are for Montas or Castillo. I wouldn't be in "whatever it takes" mode, but I'd have a list of guys I was willing to part with and I'd see what I could make happen. Outside that I'd only be looking at cheap relievers that don't cost any "real" prospects. I think a 13 man staff of Ryan, Gray, Ober, Winder, Duran, Archer, Maeda, Alcala, Moran, Thielbar, Jax, Cotton, Smeltzer could win some playoff games, but would prefer to see Montas or Castillo in there over Cotton if the cost isn't too high for them. Wouldn't be mad with an extra insurance piece or 2 for the pen, but I think health is the bigger concern with the pitching overall.

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The Twins should look to get 1-2 High-end Starters and 2-3 more bullpen arms, likely 2 high-end relievers above all else. In a dream situation, the Twins get Frankie Montas, Kyle Hendricks, Mychal Givens, Jeff Hoffman and Jorge Lopez.

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Some of these trade are interesting to say the least. I don’t expect the twins to trade a major prospect however I could be surprised. That means using our #10-30 prospects for above average bullpen arms.  

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On 6/17/2022 at 2:32 PM, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't be in "whatever it takes" mode, but I'd have a list of guys I was willing to part with and I'd see what I could make happen.

What would your list be and who would you be willing to give up to get either of the two starters you mentioned? I think more teams will be ‘in’ on these two and they will go to whoever is willing to give up the most. What’s a reasonable cost is likely not going to get it done. It’s why I think we should focus on relief pitching. And I honestly don’t think Montas is ‘all that’. It will certainly take more to get him than is worth it, imo.

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The last two days has made this a much more tricky question. (and two games should never do that, but...) Maybe this team isn't as good as most of us hoped or thought and really is the team most people thought it was going to be coming into the season. (A rebuilding/get the prospects feet wet)

That kind of puts the FO in a pickle, because while the offensive prospects and Duran have gotten their feet wet and gained experience the vaunted pitching pipeline hasn't.  Ryan is Ryan (which is good) but I don't count him as part of the pipleline, sure Winder and Ober have gotten some innings and been decent to good but they have also been hurt it seems most of the year and that is the MO of this pitching pipeline.

So if the Twins continue to fall back in the standings and miss the playoffs has this FO done enough to keep their jobs and what is left of the good will from the fans if more pitching doesn't step up? (Larnach, Celestino, and Jeffers (and Lewis) are this FO guys, but AK and Miranda are not)

IMO the front office stays based on some of the pitching that still in the minors, but Rocco is gone and is the fall guy.

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The season is only approaching the halfway point. A little health and consistency can cure the worries. The Twins were projected to win 80-86 games and if they win 88 they could be in the playoffs. Their team is pretty good and will be in it all year unless there are a series of tough injuries. The baseball season is full of ups and downs.

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