KScott

Something I noticed while going through stats: there is only one player on the Twins roster that would be a qualifying batter for AVG, OBP etc.: Carlos Correa. It is conceivable that if the Twins clinch that they could rest him potentially making it so there are 0 players on the team that would qualify. Going through the rest of the league it looks like every other team has at least 3 players that would qualify. Its an interesting note, that I think is indicative of its overall struggles to find a line up that produces.

I am curious how this will change the value of the catchers in our system. Jeffers is currently highly valued because of his pitch framing ability. But if this goes into effect next season, how does that effect his value? Does he or Vazquez get leapfrogged by one of the other catchers in our system? Are there any catchers in our system whose value increases as a result?

So for those that are saying don't trade Gray. If the Twins do trade for an Ace caliber pitcher (Lopez etc). And we have these names to work with: Ace du jour, Gray, Mahle, Maede, Ryan, Ober, who is the odd man out and what do you do with them? At the same time Winder, Varland, and Paddack can all be added to that conversation as they are fighting for MLB spots. If you stash those 4 guys at AAA, that clogs up spots for SWR, Laweryson, etc. So in my mind it makes sense to trade one of the MLB pitchers. Given that Mahle and Maede probably won't hold any teams interest, would you rather trade away Ryan or Ober? What type of return would you expect to get from that trade?

Why was Jair Camargo omitted? There were multiple times that he had pretty impactful games and his .262/.310/.483 (.793) beats the lines of many of those listed above. His play was good enough to get him a promotion Cedar Rapids to Wichita. All of that is to say, I have seen multiple favorable things written about him, but that is all I know. But given that positive attention it surprises me he wasn't listed above.

I was just thinking this exact question. I did some playing around on baseball trade values. If LA wanted to get back to contention as fast as possible, they want major League ready talent, and it would have to be someone that would hurt to lose, and I don't think there is anyway the Twins don't lose Lewis in the trade, so he is included in all Trades. Below are 4 groupings of players that the Twins currently have redundancy in and could loose one from each group and not miss too much (especially given that they would be getting Ohtani in return) Group A ) Polanco, Arraez, Miranda Group B ) Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler Group C ) Steer, Martin Group D ) Ober, Winder, Paddack, SWR, Canterino Both of these scenarios are for just Ohtani (107.6 trade value): 1) If you took the highest value of each group that would be: Larnach, Lewis, Ober, Polanco and Steer (122.7 Trade Value) 2) If I were the Angels the trade I would want from this would be: Arraez, Larnach, Lewis, Steer, Winder (Trade Value) I do think the Twins could lose 2 from Groups B, C and D, without missing much. At the same time if the angels wanted another prospect not on the list I would not hesitate to make a 6 for 1 trade. What do you all think? Would that be too much to lose?

Great article. Its nice to see a little light in the very dark bullpen.

To me Buxton is a conundrum. Here are his stats and ranking among the 153 qualifying MLB players Hr: 23 #5 (#1 on Twins) Slugging %: .550 #10 (#1 on Twins) OPS: 0.845 #26 (#2 on Twins behind Arraez) Runs: 48 #30 (#2 on Twins behind Arraez) RBI: 42 #53 (#2 on Twins behind Polanco) OBP: 0.295 #123(Last of 6) Average: 0.215 #140(Last of 6) Depending on how you look at it he is elite or garbage. IMO his his runs and RBI stay high, he is great. The question to me is whether or not that is sustainable given his BA and OBP. Is he a candidate for sharp regression given those splits. Overall interesting article.

Great article. Thinking through the pitching staff that the twins had going in to the year these guys ( in the order they pop into my head) were all starters: 1. Ryan 2. Gray 3. Archer 4. Ober 5. Duran 6. Winder 7. Paddack 8. Bundy 9. Jax (the only guy on this list not on the opening day roster) That is a heck of a lot of people with legitimate experience starting and reason to think that they should be a part of a starting rotation. If the expectation changed, so that each guy was expected to get 4 innings and then pitch once every 4 days. I could see the logic in that. At the same time that would get you to the 8th inning, so you would hypothetically only need one more pitcher to go 1 inning. (5+innings every five days gives you the same number pitches over a 20 day period so the workload could hypothetically be the same) With the 9 we have, you would also have an extra starter/bulk bridge guy to supplement when someone melts down earlier or a guy needs a break. So with 9 bulk bridge pitchers, you would have 3 more spots for guys that do one maybe two innings pick from: Alcala, Pagan, Smith, Duffey, Coulombe, Theilbar etc. Alcala was arguably the best returning bullpen arm, and the twins made a point to get Pagan and Smith. The skeleton is there for this setup. It is consistent with the message we were getting early in the season. Duran and Winder were supposed to be long relief. But situations kept demanding they do something that wasn't the plan. I don't know if that was the case but it seems plausible. If they ever get healthy I would actually enjoy seeing that experiment tried. The logic makes sense it's just a matter of can that work in reality. RE Edit: reading this 10 hours later. I realized I forgot Smeltzer in that last of starters. Which doesn't change the statement that the Twins have the tools to try this model.

I had to respond a little of both. The Twins have a log jam at the top. You have Arraez, Kiriloff, Larnach, Miranda, Urshela, and Sano competing for some combination of 3rd/1st and LF. Trading any of those feels like selling, and are arguably too redundant. Kiriloff, Larnach and Miranda all given their level of development should be playing almost every day, but are essentially blocked by the other players on the list, whether its due to roster spots or definitely in the case Arraez needs to play every day to give the team the best shot at winning. So given that, one or two of the players should be traded in order to shore up a weakness of this year's team. Not prospect capital (unless that prospect capital is then being flipped again for help this year). If we trade Urshella and a prospect for a high end reliever, did we sell or buy? I think of it as shuffling. I would like to see the Twins make a shuffle style moves this season, and I don't particularly care which person is shuffled in/out so long as in the end we are net upgrading (especially the bullpen). You could make an argument that Kepler, Polanco, Gordon fall in that same category but I see those players have having locked in and defined places on the team. If the Twins could sign Correa to a long term deal, I would consider trading Lewis too as he would then fall under the same category of already mentioned names.

I don't feel like this is the year to go all in. Ryan and Winder have been very pleasant surprises. Then there are a handful of other pitchers coming soon, not to mention that until this year Duran was a starter. If our rotation next year ends up Ryan, Gray, Duran, Winder plus pick the best of Smeltzer, Ober, Balazovic, Paddack. I don't want to sell off a ton of peices to replace that unless we are getting someone that is going to slot in above all of them long term, which I just don't see that happening. When that is coupled with Larnach, Kiriloff, and Miranda getting a full season under their belts, I would rather the front office to wait until next year to push all their chips in. That doesn't mean I want them to sit still. If they can extend Correa, I would look at trading Lewis, but only if you can extend Correa, and then only for high quality controllable pitching (back end of the bullpen imo) Then work on clearing up the log jam. There have been multiple places where I have seen it said there is no place for Kiriloff right now. Make a place by trading away one of the peices blocking him (Urshela, Kepler, Larnach) or trade him. I think if those trades can bring in a bp arm or two that would bump Duran down the pecking order. I would be thrilled.

I am just extremely happy that the Twins are getting it done. I don't care that it's rookies like May, Rosario and Sano that are teaching everyone how to do it.

When reading the intro to this article with the Trevor May lead in, I was expecting the suggestion of a swap of roles. To which I thought that'd be intriguing, does he have the make up of a reliever? If so, that is what I want to see of Nolasco, shore up the bullpen and let May get down to business as a front of the rotation guy.

Molitor for not having May take the 11th.

I liked the call by Molitor to bunt then pinch hit Torii. It makes me excited for when Kepler or Walker come up in September and we have a legit bat off the bench.

8 innings 4 hits no runs for pelfrey. Turn the ball over to Perkins in the 9th, then with 2 outs he gives up a home run...

If we are looking at the Padres, their minor league system was described this way: http://www.gaslampball.com/2015/6/4/8731167/mlb-draft-2015-padres-farm-minor-league-depth Given that list: I would offer the following package: - 1B big bats: One of the two: Max Kepler or Kennys Vargas - Middle infield: One of the three: Santana, Polano or Gordon - A catcher of their choice from our organization (suzuki to back up hedges?) - and a player to be named later.

You are right Milone by himself will not get the job done. Here is more of the situation I am thinking of. Take the Brewers and trying get Lucroy for example: Currently their rotation has a 4.41 era. 3 of the starters have ERAs well north of 4.0. They could use immediate help which Milone could provide. Their top pitching prospects (that haven't been called up) are still a few years out. Milone could be a stop gap with potential. In their system 1B and 3B are major needs with no answers (similar to our catcher): to fill this we could send Vargas and/or Kepler plus one other prospect covered below. Or send Plouffe with a lesser prospect. The third prospect could be dealt from our depth of starting pitching at the lower levels: think Stewart, Hu, or Gonsalves. I think this trade is on the reasonable to light end, especially given what was mentioned in the article: the brewers not having an mlb ready prospect. I am probably suffering from overvaluing players in our organization as has oft been said earlier. edit: State of Brewer's Organization: http://reviewingthebrew.com/2015/01/12/state-milwaukee-brewers-farm-system/ Also, lets throw in Suzuki, Pinto, and Deunsing for good measure.

How would dealing Milone, or other potentially mlb worthy talent (Santana or Arcia) play over with those teams? Or do players like those not have much value any more as their ceiling is more well defined?

Thanks, my first memory of him was a 2B prospect and there bring discussion of what to do between him and Dozier. I am glad he is playing his more natural position.

With how Arcia has been raking lately in Rochester, and Rosario has been playing great for the Twins, I've been trying to figure out a way to get both in the line-up. Then I remembered that Rosario was originally a second base prospect. Could Rosario be a consideration for shortstop, if Arcia forces his bat into the line-up? If so how much of a downgrade would this combo be defensively? (I know offensively I would rather have Arcia than Santana in the line-up.)

Its more that I am choosing to be excited over the growth of a player who could barely hang around .195 bringing their BA up almost 60 points. Instead of being down about a player that is playing the worst among all qualified 1B (based on WAR)

At the moment I don't understand why people are taking a comparison to Hicks to be a horrible thing. League BA at time of this post is .251, which Hicks is exceeding (.254). No only that but Hicks is within .010 of everyone else not named Rosario or Hunter on our starting roster. Yes, that includes: Plouffe, Dozier, and Mauer. So while yes Mauer is having a down year. I look at this as growth by Hicks more than anything.

A big positive I think should be added to this: Aaron Hicks (.259) is hitting better than the american league average (0.252). Both stats per ESPN. In fact there are only 3 players in tonight's starting line up hitting below the league average: Suzuki, Santana and Escobar. I think is that is pretty darn good.

Close but not quite. Part of the post was of frustration. I am tired of Nolasco, and biased. He probably is the victim of bad luck, but between letting up a large number runs, and almost never making it deep into games, and seemingly bouncing back and forth from the DL or playing hurt. He bugs me. The 90% was exaggeration to try to get people to talk. Nor do I want to rush anyone up from the minors. Come July, there will be 7 viable MLB starters (Santana, Hughes, Gibson, May, Pelfrey, and Milone) If they all keep pitching at a decent level the twins should trade someone. What I would like to see is good-bye Nolasco, bump Milone up and allow a player (Berrios) to bump up from AA to AAA, and some one up to AA (Hu or Gonsalves) etc. The reason I want Nolasco gone from that group, is he is older and is payed more than anyone in that list not named Santana. (same age and is making 1.5 million less than Santana). He may have decent years ahead yet, but his best is past and he has only played 3 seasons with a sub 4.0 ERA, Santana has a better track record. I want that money and roster spot open for a player that will contribute more to the team. Yes in his last 4 starts he has pitched to an ERA of 3.2. But the crux is he only pitched 19.7 innings. That's less than 5 per game as a starter. That's a quick way to burn out a bullpen. Yes he came out early in yesterday's game, however the games before that he went 7.2, 5.2,5.1. In fact he has only completed the 6th inning once. I understand that peripherals look good for him. But he just doesn't get the job done. He has been more of a liability or whirlpool filler than a quality starter for the Twins and it bugs me, therefore I want him gone. I would love to see a trade packaging Nolasco, an OF prospect (Kepler, Walker, Arcia or one of the many others) and cash, for a good catching prospect.

Well said. The next couple years look bright.