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Would you Trade Correa this year?


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Many have talked about how we are not ready to win this year, unless we upgrade our pitching.  I agree we can upgrade our pitching, but believe getting a top starter and top reliever will drain our farm system and will not be needed to get into playoffs, and once there nothing says doing so will make the difference between a WS win or not.  I looked into past deadline deals and only found 2 higher end starters helping lead to WS win in recent history.  I am suer there was some middle of road trades that helped, but without knowing how someone else would have done we never know how big of a difference it would be. This post is not about if we should trade for pitching, but if we do not, should we trade Correa.

That being said, if you are in the boat of we need to upgrade pitching or season will be a bust, if the price for that pitching is too high, would you trade away Correa to get prospects?  Most likely doing so would cost us a chance at playoffs, with no clear replacement.  I believe it would greatly lower our chances if we did sneak into playoffs, but much as starting pitching we would not know. It is highly unlikely Correa opts in for next year barring any injuries down the stretch that would eat up much of next year, he will want to get a bigger deal, which we all expected when the deal was signed.  

The question is, do you stand pat on him hoping we can still make playoffs and do something with him, or do you try to bring in a couple of top prospects, understanding that his value is not super high being just a rental for any team taking him.  He also has limited no trade clause I believe.  You would also most likely give up any chance of getting a deal with him long term, which is already very unlikely.

Both trading and not trading has merit. First, keeping him we have one of best defenders and one of best hitting SS in the league.  Bogaerts right now has best WAR of SS but Correa is not far behind and has much less games.  Any contending team that does not have a SS or could not move their SS to another position would love to have Correa.  What would they give up?  That might depend on how desperate they are, if they think they could convince him to opt in, or resign him, or who else is looking for him.  You never know who would come back to the Twins and how they would pan out, but with most likely losing Correa for nothing after the season there is merit to saying get value for him. You may upset many fans though down the stretch, and affect possible future FA signings, although think every knew it was a 1 year deal so doubt that would affect many future FA thoughts. 

On the flip side, if you can make the playoffs having a guy on defense at SS that is as good as he is, and will hit middle of order with chance of hitting HR and getting on base at high clip, has a ton of value.  Our offense versus some good starting pitching has shown at least right now they can hold their own.  We won two world series in our history, both of which were considered big underdogs in each round of those playoffs but still won.  When we had what we thought was elite top pitching or at least a top pitcher, we have not won series.  Specifically in 2020 we had two guys that could dominate games that year, and lost both starts after having not great, but not terrible but facing off against aging vet and unproven rookie.  We failed to score despite pitching not being terrible it was not good enough.  I am a big fan of getting to playoffs and see how it goes.  Atlanta last year was not favored.  Many teams that win are not favored, but yes many that are do as well.  However, sometimes it is a surprise person that steps up.  

I personally would not be upset either way, as long as the return in a trade helps next year and in near future, not years down the road.  But if we try to stay pat with starters and bring in cheap relief guys for very low level prospects, I would be happy with that too. 

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I would trade him.  Boras isn't letting him play out this contract.  He's getting Carlos 350 mil.  If the Twins will not pony up the funds then don't take this gift signing for granted. 

As much fun as the season has been.  We aren't winning the World Series this year.  We wouldn't even be getting past the Yankee's in the playoffs.  Stock up the farm, let the kids roll next year.  

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The Twins won 5 of 9 games against Toronto, New York and Tampa Bay without four starting pitchers, all of whom should be back this month. The front office shouldn’t rule out a deep playoff run with Carlos Correa. If they have more season-ending injuries before the trade deadline, they could then consider trading Correa, but they an win this year. 

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6 minutes ago, baul0010 said:

I would trade him.  Boras isn't letting him play out this contract.  He's getting Carlos 350 mil.  If the Twins will not pony up the funds then don't take this gift signing for granted. 

As much fun as the season has been.  We aren't winning the World Series this year.  We wouldn't even be getting past the Yankee's in the playoffs.  Stock up the farm, let the kids roll next year.  

You never know on the WS.  I wouldn't bet on it, but crazy things happen in the playoffs.  

Also, Correa is in charge of his own contract,  IF (BIG IF) he really loves it in MN, he might play it out another year when the free agent SS market isn't as filled with big stars.  If he waits until after next season, he'll still get a big contract without having to compete with Xandar Bogarts, Trea Turner, Tim Anderson, and more for the top contracts, and he still would probably have the highest AAV.  

So, no to the trade.  If you think you're getting to the playoffs, you're not trading your starting SS just because he might opt out.  

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Twins leading the division - Correa performing well and healthy = no.
Twins in the playoff chase - Correa performing well and healthy = probably not.
Twins likely out of it - Correa performing well and healthy = absolutely.
Twins out of it - Correa performing well and healthy = absolutely.

Twins leading the division - Correa not performing well or not healthy = probably.
Twins in the playoff chase - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.
Twins likely out of it - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.
Twins out of it - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.

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I think it is unlikely the Twins trade Correa.  One they have to match up with a team that really needs him for the stretch run but most of the top teams have good shortstops and teams fighting for wild card spots might just prefer to wait out Correa to the end of the season giving up no prospects this year. The Cubs, Phillies and a few other teams have been mentioned as wanting to add a shortstop next year but why pay in prospects for someone who is going to test the market no matter what.  So number one IMO it is going to be hard to line up a trading partner and get much value for Correa.

Two if the Twins are in the hunt for a division title or playoff berth do you really want to jeopardize that by trading Correa?  Unless it was an incredible return which is unlikely for a rental that seems too steep a price to pay for missing out on a chance for the division title and a long shot at a World Series title.

While I get the point of trying to make the team better in future years the nature of prospects is so fickle you can never bank on them working out.  They can regress, have career ending injuries, Be good one year and not the next, be good enough at AAA but never able to make the jump to MLB.  Our division is only going to have stronger competition in the coming years so I think any time you have a chance for playoffs you have to do what you can to get there and see what happens.

I don't see the FO trading Correa at the deadline.

 

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28 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Correa is GONE after this year if he plays well and is healthy. Absolutely, 100%, guaranteed. The Twins will not pony up $150MM+ for him, and that's what he'll get.

I agree I just can't see the Twins signing Correa to the 8 to 10 year deal he is going to want at 30M or more per year. I know Lewis might never be the defensive wizard Correa is but he can still be solid there and his bat likely won't be far off from Correa.  The Twins have Palacios as the proverbial defense first shortstop so they could cover the SS hole for a fraction of the cost and not give up all that much in terms of production at the position.  Also as Correa ages his numbers will likely go down as well while Lewis's should go up as he moves into his prime.

The Twins value payroll flexibility and like Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa Bay I think they plan to turn over assets when they get too expensive.  They would have to shock the Baseball world a 2nd time to sign Correa and go against their whole organizational philosophy in the process.  The odds of that happening are very, very low.

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If in contention... You buy at the deadline

If not in contention... You sell at the deadline 

Doing neither of these things is standing still

It is really that simple

In addition to the above: 

Selling while in contention is the same as sticking a knife into a good tire

Buying while not in contention is the same as pumping air into a tire after the knife. 

 

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51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Twins leading the division - Correa performing well and healthy = no.
Twins in the playoff chase - Correa performing well and healthy = probably not.
Twins likely out of it - Correa performing well and healthy = absolutely.
Twins out of it - Correa performing well and healthy = absolutely.

Twins leading the division - Correa not performing well or not healthy = probably.
Twins in the playoff chase - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.
Twins likely out of it - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.
Twins out of it - Correa not performing well or not healthy = absolutely.

Have to agree the question can't be answered without this context and I would add that one other key consideration needs to be known and that's the return.  What if the Yankees would trade Volpe?  It's not going to happen.  I am just saying it seems silly to answer this question without knowing all of the things you listed and most importantly ... What's the trade offer?

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My opinion - The Twins should be in negotiations with Scott Boras right now about what they need to offer Correa to make him a Twin for the next couple of years (with no opt-out clause).  If they are, the answer becomes obvious.  If he is going to stay, don't trade.  If he is going to opt out, then trade him.  I really don't care about this year if Correa isn't staying because I think (opinion) that this team has an almost zero chance of success of advancing in the playoffs even with Correa in the lineup.

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1 hour ago, baul0010 said:

I would trade him.  Boras isn't letting him play out this contract.  He's getting Carlos 350 mil.  If the Twins will not pony up the funds then don't take this gift signing for granted. 

As much fun as the season has been.  We aren't winning the World Series this year.  We wouldn't even be getting past the Yankee's in the playoffs.  Stock up the farm, let the kids roll next year.  

While heading back to where we were last year, only without a top level short stop.

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20 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

My opinion - The Twins should be in negotiations with Scott Boras right now about what they need to offer Correa to make him a Twin for the next couple of years (with no opt-out clause).  If they are, the answer becomes obvious.  If he is going to stay, don't trade.  If he is going to opt out, then trade him.  I really don't care about this year if Correa isn't staying because I think (opinion) that this team has an almost zero chance of success of advancing in the playoffs even with Correa in the lineup.

How will it be better next year without him all year? 

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1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If in contention... You buy at the deadline

If not in contention... You sell at the deadline 

Doing neither of these things is standing still

It is really that simple

In addition to the above: 

Selling while in contention is the same as sticking a knife into a good tire

Buying while not in contention is the same as pumping air into a tire after the knife. 

 

Adding to the difficulty is, what contending team will trade away a good pitcher? Correa will refuse a trade to a poor team looking to unload talent for prospects. He will insist on going to a contender. 

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32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why don't people want to win in a year they are likely in the playoffs? What if more pitchers get hurt for longer next year? You've punted a year where you have a chance.....

To quote George Bush,  'Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again. '"

I think after 20 years of playoff failures it's hard for a lot of fans to go all in on the idea of a long playoff run by the Twins. Part of being a Twins or Vikings fan is waiting to be disappointed again,

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11 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

Adding to the difficulty is, what contending team will trade away a good pitcher? Correa will refuse a trade to a poor team looking to unload talent for prospects. He will insist on going to a contender. 

And the many $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ that needs to be factored in. 

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No for the following reasons

#1  I firmly believe we'll be in the post season, the time to have CC is in the post season. He's been there & done that. We don't know when we'll have another opportunity like this.

#2 CC rental won't make it worth it for us to trade him

#3 The market for CC is competing teams so they'll want to trade their prospects. We are in a 40 man crunch with abundance of good redundant  prospects & players. So we don't need any more prospects, we need upgrades at SP, RP and catching. IMO we have a very underrated farm system.

#4 Competing teams already have their SS that's why they're there. another words there won't be any market for him.

 

 

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The calculus on this has changed drastically since Lewis was injured.  Now not only would you have to trade Correa,  you would have to trade for a replacement in the process.  Also with an additional major injury to Lewis,  as freak as it was,  I am getting so serious Buxton vibes going on.   At this point I would be tempted to work on an extension with Correa if he truly is interested.  

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Trading Correa could be positioned as somehow being for the longer-term health of the franchise. 

But IMO the worst disadvantage the Twins face is that their market is not as strong as it might be for a metro area of its size.  St Louis is always held up as the benchmark for franchises below the big markets, and rightly so - their metro area is smaller than the Twin Cities but according to Forbes their baseball revenue stream is larger.  The beautiful thing is that this isn't (to any important extent) a zero-sum game - the franchises compete for wins on the diamond but every franchise has the potential to increase its fan loyalty.  The Cardinals have done this through literally decades of showing their fans that they care.  The Twins have by contrast conditioned their fan base to expect the minimum, through a constant message about overspending being bad and occasional last-place finishes being not as bad.  I liked many things about Terry Ryan but in retrospect he was bad for the franchise.   It will take decades to correct this, and our FO has taken halting steps to do so, while operating within most of the long-time constraints, but I'm skeptical that those higher up than them in the corporate hierarchy will go all in to make this franchise the one that other teams speak of in the same breath as St Louis.

With that as context: trading away Correa would be a PR disaster, unless the Twins somehow tank so badly in the coming six weeks that they drop from a first-place perch to completely-and-absolutely out of contention, or unless some team offers an insane package in return for two months of our player.  It would undo a lot of the good our FO has accomplished.  The Twins invested a year of high salary* into Correa, and they need to see it through now that the season has gone well.

* The investment actually includes a guarantee of two more years if disaster strikes and Correa becomes unemployable

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