Threading The Needle At Shortstop

[Nash Walker]

The Twins find themselves in an identical scenario at shortstop this offseason: they need one. More importantly, they need to thread the needle between filling the spot in 2022 and leaving it open for Royce Lewis in 2023. Here’s a solution. 

 

THE SITUATION
The Andrelton Simmons signing was brilliant on paper. The Twins added one of the best defensive players of this generation while moving Jorge Polanco to second, where he’d go on to thrive on both sides. Unfortunately, Simmons didn’t carry his weight and produced one of the worst offensive seasons by a Twin in 20 years. 

The Twins must avoid a similar landmine in filling the shortstop hole in 2022. Additionally, the spot needs to be warm if Royce Lewis is ready to staff it in 2023. It’s undoubtedly a tremendous free-agent class, and the Twins could opt to pursue one of Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, or Trevor Story. They may go back to Simmons or opt for a similarly low-priced commitment to Freddy Galvis or José Iglesias. 

The latter would allow more allocation to starting pitching, which should be the primary focus this offseason. While it’s tantalizing, committing $20+ million to a star shortstop will eat up a considerable amount of available free agency payroll. 

The most admirable option is striking the middle. By swinging a trade for Jean Segura, the Twins thread the needle between improving in 2022 and leaving the door open for Lewis in 2023. Oh, and they save some money for pitching too. 

THE PLAYER
Segura was quietly fantastic for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2021, slashing .290/.348/.436 (111 OPS+) with 27 doubles, three triples, and 14 homers in 131 games. He was worth 3.7 Wins Above Replacement, which would’ve ranked third to Polanco (4.8) and Byron Buxton (4.5) on the Twins. 

The 31-year-old has averaged 3.86 Wins Above Replacement in five full seasons since a 2016 breakout for the Diamondbacks. Segura hits for a high average, doesn’t strike out (especially for this era), and consistently posts better-than-average OPS marks. 

Segura’s last entire season at shortstop was in 2019, when he was slightly below average defensively, according to Defensive Runs Saved (-3) and Outs Above Average (-7). He’s played primarily second base since, especially after the Phillies signed Didi Gregorius to play short.

Segura’s batted-ball data won’t jump off the page, but he’s consistently in the top 10% of the league for lowest strikeout and whiff rate. He has above-average speed and 10-15 homer power. The Twins have plenty of pop and could use another Luis Arraez-type in their lineup. 

THE COST
The Seattle Mariners signed Segura to a 5-year, $70 million deal after his outstanding 2016, then traded him after two seasons. He’s now entering his final guaranteed year of the agreement and will make $14.85 million in 2022. Segura has a club option for 2023 at $17 million with a $1 million buyout. 

Segura’s salary places him in-between the blue-bloods of this class (Semien, Correa, etc.) and the bargains (Simmons, Galvis, Iglesias). 

It’s essentially a one-year, $14.85 million deal with an option for a second. It's is an ideal contract for the Twins, as they aren’t sure Lewis will be ready to start at short in 2023 but also want to leave the possibility open. According to FanGraphs, Segura was worth $19.8 million in 2021. 

THE TRADE
You may be asking why the Phillies would trade their starting second baseman when they’re trying to compete? Well, you could be right. There’s a chance the Phillies aren’t entertaining offers for Segura. But why wouldn’t they?

Philadelphia needs as much relief help as it can get. The team has an estimated $171 million already committed to 2022 and sported a 27th-ranked bullpen last year (1.1 fWAR). The Phillies are spending ~$62 million on their infield and could stand to re-allocate those funds to the pitching side. 

Further, the Phillies currently have MLB’s 4th-weakest farm system, per Pipeline. They could hand off Segura’s contract while also adding young talent. On the Twins side, the price may be two mid-level prospects. Say, RHP Cole Sands and INF Edouard Julien? 

THE BOTTOM LINE
No one wants to see Simmons helplessly wave his bat for the Twins again in 2022. They need improvement in the short term and perspective for the long term. Segura is an opportunity for that. He’s a solid player on a solid contract and allows the Twins to focus most of their spending on the rotation. 

What are your thoughts on Jean Segura?

 

 

 

 

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[mikelink45]

That sounds like one of the worst ideas I have seen - somewhat similar to signed Andrelton Simmons. 

[Vanimal46]

4 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

That sounds like one of the worst ideas I have seen - somewhat similar to signed Andrelton Simmons. 

Trading for Segura isn’t my first choice, but calling it the worst idea you have seen is over the top and rude, don’t you think? Just because you can’t see a way to contending doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Did you predict a World Series championship in the winter of 86 and 90? 

[the_neds]

I have thought about this one a lot since you spoke about it on the podcast - and the more I think about it the more I like it.

I mean, yeah, who wouldn’t be super pumped to see one of the amazingly talented shortstops available sign with the twins? But realistically if we have to pay one of them over $20M that’s going to hamper our starting pitching big time. Plus I highly doubt any of them would be looking for a short term deal. 
 

I like the idea of Segura - offensively he is a massive improvement, and defensively he’s not Simmons but Polanco also wasn’t a stellar defensive shortstop and we had him there. 
 

And as much as I loathe the idea of trading someone like Arraez, signing Segura would mean we could potentially float him as a trade candidate, which might be the kind of piece that - when coupled with a prospect - gets some looks in exchange for pitching quality. 

[mikelink45]

23 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Trading for Segura isn’t my first choice, but calling it the worst idea you have seen is over the top and rude, don’t you think? Just because you can’t see a way to contending doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Did you predict a World Series championship in the winter of 86 and 90? 

I did not mean it to be personal - I have to learn the etiquette of these posts.  But I did mean to express displeasure at the idea.

 

[Doctor Gast]

In the NL, nobody cares if their pitchers can hit, the importance is this, can they pitch? So why is that so many people don't care if a SS can play SS or not? The importance is on whether he's a stud at the plate or not. Next to pitching, SS and CF are the most important positions on the field so IMO more importance should be put on the glove and less on the bat. I can see at the corner positions, defense is less important but SS and CF positions are more critical. I'd pass on Segura.

[cjm0926]

I know it was just a hypothetical trade but I hope the Twins keep Sands, I think he can turn into a solid ML starter. He seems to be a good pitcher, not just a good thrower.

[bean5302]

I'd be more in favor of signing Eduardo Escobar and sticking him at shortstop because I believe his physical tools will still play there since his sprint speeds, 90 foot splits and arm haven't deteriorated at all. Mlbtraderumors forecasts Escobar at 2 years and $20MM. Sounds about right.

[Major League Ready]

The Twins are not trading a prospect of any consequence for a player with 1 year of control.  That would be extremely short sighted and this FO has not demonstrated any short-sighted tendencies.

[Major League Ready]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I'd be more in favor of signing Eduardo Escobar and sticking him at shortstop because I believe his physical tools will still play there since his sprint speeds, 90 foot splits and arm haven't deteriorated at all. Mlbtraderumors forecasts Escobar at 2 years and $20MM. Sounds about right.

I have no idea if he can still play short but this is a very creative and interesting idea. 

[Vanimal46]

24 minutes ago, cjm0926 said:

I know it was just a hypothetical trade but I hope the Twins keep Sands, I think he can turn into a solid ML starter. He seems to be a good pitcher, not just a good thrower.

I am with you on Sands. I think he’s a prospect who will surprise like Ober did in 2021. He doesn’t walk a lot of people, strikes people out at a solid clip, and keeps the ball in the field of play. That should translate well to the majors when he gets his opportunity. 

[ashbury]

Unless you happen to think Sands isn't a legit prospect, no dice. 

I'm not trading pitching prospects except for established pitching.  Teams hang onto their arms and we shouldn't be handing ours out like candy.

[terrydactyls]

Add a $2-$3M SS with a good glove and then go nuts on pitching.  Go after every free agent under 32 or 33 years old and try to get three of them to sign.  Oh, and get Buxton's autograph on a long-term contract.  Then the Twins will be in contention.

[cHawk]

The tough thing is that there really wasn’t anything wrong with the Simmons signing on paper last year. NOBODY predicted he would be that bad (if you did, then props to you).

The more I think about the Segura idea, the more it makes sense to me. He’s been a pretty solid player over the last five years. I’d be fine with it. He would be cheaper than the big names in the FA market, so the Twins could allocate that money more towards the (many) holes in the pitching staff.

That being said, IDK what the Twins would give up for him. That’s the hard part.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I have no idea if he can still play short but this is a very creative and interesting idea. 

I spent quite a bit of time looking at the physical and athletic stats for Escobar recently. He really hasn't lost even a single step. I just don't see a reason why he wouldn't be able to cover shortstop adequately. I don't think he'd be a gold glover or anything, but he'd undoubtedly be better than Polanco was.

[dxpavelka]

So what you're saying is to go get a guy who is basically Simmons without the Gold Glove.  AND give something other than cash up for him.  I dunno. 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

That sounds like one of the worst ideas I have seen - somewhat similar to signed Andrelton Simmons. 

Worse than signing Nolasco, Pelf  or Kevin Correia? Worse than Tony Bautista? Tommy Herr ?  Worse than a lot of the first round draft picks. 

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

That sounds like one of the worst ideas I have seen - somewhat similar to signed Andrelton Simmons. 

Worse than Nishioka? No way in hades

[big dog]

I don't have strong feelings about Segura in particular, but I like this idea in general. Spend the big money on Buxton and pitching, get someone to stand in at SS who is plausible for a year and see where we are. Same idea as last year, hopefully with a somewhat better outcome.

I would really like to have a crystal ball into Lewis' future to help make this decision. We have several good pitching prospects, we ought to be able to get one or two reasonable starters from there before too long and who knows which ones. At SS, we've got Lewis and...Palacios? I'd love to turn the job over to Lewis in April or May and hope he catches fire, but it's probably well into spring training before that's anything more than a dream that might become a nightmare.

[big dog]

3 hours ago, old nurse said:

Worse than Nishioka? No way in hades

I don't see how anything could be worse than Nishioka. Factor in that signing him led to the team trading JJ Hardy for Jim Hoey and the whole situation becomes a Superfund toxic waste site.

 

[rv78]

Not interested in Segura, Too expensive. I'd much rather see Iglesias signed for less money and no prospects. Even if they have to give him a 2 or 3 year deal. Pass on Simmons too for Iglesias. Much better bat.

 

[cooldude]

Isn't there a lot of doubt about whether Lewis can stick at SS? It seems to me that this offseason, with so many excellent SS available, is a good time to find the guy to man that position for the next 5 or 6 years. 

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

Worse than Nishioka? No way in hades

I am sorry I posted something that made you reach back to remember all these bad signings.  So I will have to adjust to one of the worst! 

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I spent quite a bit of time looking at the physical and athletic stats for Escobar recently. He really hasn't lost even a single step. I just don't see a reason why he wouldn't be able to cover shortstop adequately. I don't think he'd be a gold glover or anything, but he'd undoubtedly be better than Polanco was.

For me it all comes down to will Lewis stick at SS.  I don't think even the Twins inner circle has a real great read on this because he has not played in a year and there are questions on both sides of the ball.  Here is another thought ... If they try Escobar and he does not stick, is there any chance Palacios is ready/capable for an audition at the ML level?  Could he be plan B?  What if the sign Escobar and trade Arraez for a near ready SS or a SS being blocked?  Interesting possibilities with your idea.

[farmerguychris]

I'm ok pursuing trades, but not for players with only 1 year of control left.  I'd rather give Lewis a shot (if he's healthy enough to play) and risk growing pains.

[Nashvilletwin]

Yes, the jury is still out on Lewis (or Martin) as an everyday SS.  It’s much more likely that they project as plus corner outfielders with Buxton in center. If Buxton leaves (heaven forbid) or gets injured, then, of course, Lewis can slot in at CF. 
 

Better to find a 5 year solution (as sagely posted above) as a true SS now. If we have to move our declining asset at 3B or give up our pipe dreams of a #1 SP to do it, so be it.  
 

At the moment I’d take a long term deal plus SS and Miranda at 3B as we look to build a new window than Josh, an expensive temp at SS and the hope (of hype) of Lewis or Martin as a plus SS in ‘23 and beyond. Really, not even close. 

[Tim]

I would make a call on Dansby Swanson

[LastOnePicked]

If this were 2021, I think I could better see the argument. However, the 2022 Twins are not anywhere close to contention and we need our solid prospects to develop for the future here. Plus, we have payroll flexibility - why trade for a SS when you can sign one without losing future impact players?

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

For me it all comes down to will Lewis stick at SS.  I don't think even the Twins inner circle has a real great read on this because he has not played in a year and there are questions on both sides of the ball.  Here is another thought ... If they try Escobar and he does not stick, is there any chance Palacios is ready/capable for an audition at the ML level?  Could he be plan B?  What if the sign Escobar and trade Arraez for a near ready SS or a SS being blocked?  Interesting possibilities with your idea.

The Twins appear totally committed to Lewis at shortstop. Lewis talked about it in an interview mid season.

Palacios did well defensively after a rusty start and based on his overall performance through August, he's totally ready at the plate. Palacios did scuffle in September quite a bit and I'd think the Twins might have called him up had he forced their hand by pushing another .820 OPS+ month through the end of the AA season. Depending on how the Twins do in the offseason, if they're rebuilding, I wouldn't mind seeing Palacios and Gordon platoon shortstop just to give them a chance.

[Major League Ready]

59 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

If this were 2021, I think I could better see the argument. However, the 2022 Twins are not anywhere close to contention and we need our solid prospects to develop for the future here. Plus, we have payroll flexibility - why trade for a SS when you can sign one without losing future impact players?

I agree in concept.  In reality, the Astros have 88M coming off their payroll.  I guess it's possible they hand the job to Pedro Leon but you would not think a WS team would do that after letting Springer go.  The Dodgers have about the same coming off and the Yankees need a SS.  Landing one of those top SS is not going to be extremely difficult if these top markets decide they want to sign them.  What about trading Arraez for a SS and signing Escobar to replace Arreaz or Bean's idea of signing Escobar for SS until Lewis or Palacios is ready?