Front Page: Who Hits Leadoff for the Minnesota Twins in 2020?

[Patrick Wozniak]

In 2019 the Twins used a variety of hitters who each brought a slightly different approach to the plate. Today we will take a look at a group of five batters who have varying levels of experience as leadoff hitters, but all have a case to start things off in 2020.When considering what makes a good leadoff hitter the most important factor should be the players ability to get on base. However, once the table is set, it’s also nice to have someone without lead feet on the basepaths, therefore baserunning ability should be considered as well. With that in mind here are the candidates and some of their relative stats from 2019:

 

Download attachment: Leading Off Table pic.png

 

Now let’s consider the players one by one.

 

Luis Arraez

 

Arraez is impressive across the board. He takes pitches, has great at bats, and got on base at a .399 clip. That’ll work. He doesn’t possess the thump of some of the other hitters on the list, but the job of the leadoff hitter is to set the table, not clear it. Also, despite not having great wheels, Arraez rates out as one of the Twins best baserunners, so he checks all the boxes. Unlike his peers on this list, Arraez also has the ability to get on base against both lefties and righties, he just does it in different ways. He’s patient and takes his walks against lefties and he crushes righties, but his OBP remained the same (.398/.399 respectively).

 

At this point it seems the only downside to Arraez may be his lack of experience and the smallness of his sample size, but this seems rather minimal.

 

Byron Buxton

 

Buxton would undoubtedly be the most exciting hitter to put in the leadoff spot. He’s one of the fastest runners in all of baseball and is an elite baserunner. Additionally, having him hit leadoff might encourage him to attempt more stolen bases, which seems like a good idea since he has such a high rate of success (60/68 career).

 

Holding Buxton back is his inability to get on base. He also makes sense in the nine-hole and the Twins may not want to immediately put extra pressure on Buxton, as he struggled in the past when he was asked to hit third.

 

Jorge Polanco

 

Polanco took a big step forward in 2019 and also gained some experience leading off, as he was second only to Kepler in appearances. Like Arraez, he checks a lot of boxes by getting on base, being a good baserunner and having the second fastest sprint time next to Buxton.

 

One thing that Polanco did not do well last season was hit lefties. His walk rate went down to just 4.7% and he was a below average overall player from the right side with an 88 wRC+.

 

Max Kepler

 

Kepler also chose 2019 as his breakout season and led the team in appearances leading off. Kepler had reverse splits, as he actually hit lefties better (.356 OBP, 130 wRC+) than righties (.328 OBP, 118 wRC+), but that wasn’t the case prior to 2019.

 

It’s unclear which way his splits will go in 2020 and having Kepler leadoff against lefties may feel counterintuitive. And while it’s always fun to lead the game off with a home run, Kepler’s power surge would probably fit better somewhere closer to the middle of the order.

 

Mitch Garver

 

Of all the breakouts in 2019, none were larger than Garver’s. Although a far cry from a traditional leadoff hitter, Garver also saw some action leading off. He absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching to a 198 wRC+ and managed to get on base at a .434 clip against southpaws.

 

Although Garver has the best walk rate of the group, like Kepler, it seems better to utilize his power with runners on base. He is also the slowest of the group, and also like Kepler, an overall negative on the base paths.

 

Overall, I believe that Arraez is currently the best option to lead things off in 2020. Although he has the least experience of the group and it’s fun to dream of Buxton’s speed or some platoon combination of the others, I love the idea of an Arraez at-bat to start the game. He’s a difficult out and starting the game facing Arraez would be headache-inducing for opposing pitchers.

 

We’ll likely continue to see some variation in the leadoff spot, but regardless of how the lineup is constructed, it will be a fun and exciting bunch of hitters to watch and lead us into 2020 and beyond.

 

Now it’s your turn. Who would you have leadoff if you were managing the Twins?

 

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[Doctor Gast]

They should have had Arraez lead off from the get go.  That would have been better for the team & him personally

[bobs]

The new analytics have changed how we see a leadoff hitter.  Arraez seems like the best fit for the more traditional model of the recent past with the exception of stolen bases, but that's a moot point since the Twins never run anwyay.  He's also the best fit for the new more analytics-driven model.

I would love to see Arraez and Polanco at the top of the order and let Kepler hit in an RBI spot (3-5).  I'd keep Buxton at 9.  Great to have his speed (when he gets on base) in front of guys like Arraez and Polanco when the lineup rolls over.

[MMMordabito]

Luis Arraez should be the Twins leadoff hitter for at least the next five seasons, unless he gets moved to bring in pitching.

[RochesterDave]

I think that it’s a no- brainer with Arraez as his ability to take pitches, especially to start off the game, will allow everyone to see more pitches before their at-bat. Luis has a great eye, along with his patience. Let the more powerful guys drive some runs in, and let Byron stay in his comfortable 9 hole.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nice article Patrick. Thanks.

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Nice article Patrick. Thanks.

Thanks!

[D.C Twins]

The man pictured

[D.C Twins]

Though very (pleasantly) surprised by Garver's Pit/PA and BB%....

 

This makes me more confident that his 2019 performance is repeatable!

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

Though very (pleasantly) surprised by Garver's Pit/PA and BB%....

 

This makes me more confident that his 2019 performance is repeatable!

Yeah, I wouldn't have guessed that he'd lead the group in Pit/PA (would've guessed Arraez).

[Strato Guy]

Taking this a step further, I would bat Arraez first and Polanco second against righties and Arraez first and Garver second against lefties.

 

[saviking]

Funny, not sure why but I went through the same exercise a couple days ago and came up with the same answer. Arraez it is!!!

[DocBauer]

What I find so interesting is the versatility of this lineup and how many different points you could argue as to where guys fit. Kepler could fit anywhere from #1, where he was so successful, all the way down to the 7 spot. Polanco could even hit 3rd, which he did well when Molitor was here. Is Cruz best at 3rd or 4th in the order? If Kepler doesn't hit 1, does he slide down to 4 possibly and bump Rosario? So many possibilities!

 

I think you could legitimately argue against changing what worked so well last year and utilize Arraez and all his skills lower in the order as was done, and keep Kepler and Polanco in the top spots.

 

But all in all, it just makes too much sense not to have Arraez set the table. Buxton was so effective and downright dangerous hitting 9 I'd keep him there for now. And while I love Eddie, I wonder if the powerful but more disciplined Kepler shouldn't hit 4th behind Cruz, ahead of Sano, and Slide Eddie down.

 

Going to be another fun year for sure!

[specialiststeve]

Arraez has to be the man for that job... 

 

Arraez, Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Rosario, Garver, Sano, Gonzalez, Buxton ...would be my lineup. 

 

Of Course if Donaldson comes aboard it would be subject to change... 

[ScooterDance]

Espn had an article predicting the next decade.

 

Arraez was their selection for best aggregate BA for the 20’s.

 

That was cool.

[Darius]

I’m still an advocate of getting your best hitters the most ABs (aka, hit at the top of the order).

 

I know Arraez looked great. But, I’m not handing the lead off job to him out of spring training. I want to see him carry his success forward into the new year and sustain it. There’s always the opportunity for regression and the league to catch up. I’ll have no problem handing him the permanent lead off job if he shows up to start the season.

 

I want to see Polanco at the top of the lineup. He sees a lot of pitches (relative to most others in the lineup). He has some extra base pop. He’s one of the best hitters in the American League, who I want getting as many plate appearances as possible throughout the year.

 

I could see Buxton hitting his way into that spot as well. That speed would such a massive weapon atop the order. I think that’s the ideal scenario. In the meantime, Arraez and Buxton in the 8-9 hole is absolutely lethal considering you’re turning over to Polanco, Kepler, Cruz, Sano.

[mikelink45]

Arraez and the rest are interesting, but fall short in too many categories for me.

 

[Rosterman]

Besides getting on base, you want your leadoff guy to take pitches. 6-7-8-10 out of the chute. Show the batters who follow you what they might expect. See how the ump is going to call the game. Hopefully the second batter is not a free swinger, too. 

 

Secondary is speed. But you want the guy to be able to advance on a slow roller and stay out of the double play, make it to third on a clean single, possibly advance on a fly ball. 

 

If he can also put pressure on the pitcher as a potential base stealer, that is a bonus.

 

I never liked the idea of a leadoff home run being a plus.

[USAFChief]

 

 

I never liked the idea of a leadoff home run being a plus.

Uh...wut??

[jorgenswest]

Garver and Arraez are both very patient seeing over 4 pitches per plate appearance. I would use both of them depending on the starting pitcher.

[TopGunn#22]

My brother and I talk about this all the time.  Not just who should hit leadoff but how the rest of the lineup should be positioned.  Doc Bauer is right, there is a tremendous amount of flexibility for Rocco.  Here's what i would do WITH Donaldson and WITHOUT Donaldson.

 

1.   Arraez   2B                            Arraez    2B

2.   Polanco  SS                          Polanco  SS

3.    Cruz       DH                         Cruz        DH

4.  Donaldson  3B                        Kepler     RF

5.  Kepler        CF                        Garver      C

6.  Garver        C                           Rosario    LF

7.  Rosario      LF                          Sano        3B

8.  Sano          1B                          Gonzalez/Adrianza etc...

9.   Buxston      CF                          Buxton

 

 

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

Well, it just sort of posted before I was done.  And it didn't allow for the spaces so you can discern between the 2 lineups so here we go again:

 

1   Arraez   2B

2   Polanco  SS

3   Cruz   DH

4   Donaldson  3B

5   Kepler     RF

6   Garver    C

7   Rosario   LF

8   Sano     1B

9   Buxton   CF

 

1   Arraez   2B

2   Polanco  SS

3   Cruz       DH

4    Kepler    RF

5   Garver     C

6   Rosario    LF

7   Sano       1B

8   Gonzalez/Adrianza etc.. 3B

9   Buxton     CF

 

Buxton could still steal a ton of bases because a hitter like Arraez coming after him seeing so many pitches without power would make running Buxton more attractive for Rocco.  I've always wanted Buxton to be the leadoff hitter, but with the way this lineup sets up, he's REALLY go as a power/speed guy at the bottom.  (and this is why I would consider trading Buxton to the Mets for Syndergaard because even though I know Buxton is more than that, he's your #9 hitter !!

[Brandon]

When Donaldson signs with the Twins, we will have 6 30+ HR hitters on the team so if one of them leads off, it's ok.

[gman]

I like seeing Arraez bat leadoff. Which would probably only be 1 time per game. However, every other time he comes up he would bat after Buxton, assuming Buxton bats 9th.He would probably give Buxton the best opportunity to steal bases. After Buxton steals second, or gets another double, an Arraez single scores him and it wouldn't matter how far the hit goes.

[jkcarew]

The break even success rate for stolen bases is approaching 75% for teams with power....and is easily into the 70's league-wide.

.

Break Even Rate = 0.590 + (3.33 x (HR/PA)) source: Fangraphs

 

So, one CS erases the value of 3 successful attempts. That significantly mitigates the value of even Buxton's 82% (2019) success rate. It's also why nobody else on the club attempts stolen bases at all...to speak of. For scoring runs and winning games...especially in the modern HR-dominated game, OBP trumps every other metric by light-years in that spot. I'm guessing Rocco will be willing to put Arraez there more now that he's into his second year at the MLB level?

[Old Twins Cap]

Only problem with batting Arraez at leadoff is, then, where is Kepler, where is Polanco, where is Garver?

 

It's not so much about where in the lineup these guys hit, but, how often they get back to the plate.

 

In other words, who do you want to get the most ABs amongst your players?

 

If Garver or Kepler or Polanco drop down in the lineup, that means that in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning, they may not get that 4th or 5th AB, and on an analytical level, over the course of a season, do you want that to happen to them?

 

That's where the HR power matters, is number of ABs per game, per week, per season.

 

I bet Rocco crunches such numbers and continues to lead off his highest HR per AB guys, along with guys that take the most pitches and earn the most BBs.

[AlwaysinModeration]

When Donaldson signs with the Twins, we will have 6 30+ HR hitters on the team so if one of them leads off, it's ok.

I think Donaldson should bat leadoff.

[Twins33]

Taking this a step further, I would bat Arraez first and Polanco second against righties and Arraez first and Garver second against lefties.

same for me. Then Kepler at 3 and Cruz at 4.

[Jham]

The break even success rate for stolen bases is approaching 75% for teams with power....and is easily into the 70's league-wide.

.

Break Even Rate = 0.590 + (3.33 x (HR/PA)) source: Fangraphs

 

So, one CS erases the value of 3 successful attempts. That significantly mitigates the value of even Buxton's 82% (2019) success rate. It's also why nobody else on the club attempts stolen bases at all...to speak of. For scoring runs and winning games...especially in the modern HR-dominated game, OBP trumps every other metric by light-years in that spot. I'm guessing Rocco will be willing to put Arraez there more now that he's into his second year at the MLB level?

Good analysis. I'd add a caveat the statement regarding OBP being lightyears more important. I've read articles suggesting that simply putting your best hitter period in that spot and getting them extra at bats over there course of a season is a better strategy for some teams.

[PopRiveter]

I enjoy how this article concisely made a case for each. 

 

I think Arraez seems the best fit for winning each game, but I think there is also a case to be made for giving Buxton as many at-bats as possible to try and help him catch-up on his development after missing so much time in his career so far. 

 

If Buxton can pay off more of his potential, he can render this debate moot.