Front Page: Who Hits Leadoff for the Minnesota Twins in 2020?

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The break even success rate for stolen bases is approaching 75% for teams with power....and is easily into the 70's league-wide.

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Break Even Rate = 0.590 + (3.33 x (HR/PA)) source: Fangraphs

 

So, one CS erases the value of 3 successful attempts. That significantly mitigates the value of even Buxton's 82% (2019) success rate. It's also why nobody else on the club attempts stolen bases at all...to speak of. For scoring runs and winning games...especially in the modern HR-dominated game, OBP trumps every other metric by light-years in that spot. I'm guessing Rocco will be willing to put Arraez there more now that he's into his second year at the MLB level?

Good points about base stealing, but speed is also about advancing and scoring. With Buxton on second, almost any subsequent single scores a run. With Arraez standing on second it better be a well-struck, well-placed, outfield single.

 

...or just hit a double.

 

 

...or a home run.

 

That's probably what they'll do anyway.