Article: Mauer Outage

[Nick Nelson]

During the month of April, while the Minnesota Twins stumbled out of the gates with a nine-game losing streak and ultimately finished with a 7-17 record, one storyline broke through the overarching dreariness as a shining beacon of hope.

 

It looked as though Joe Mauer, finally, was back.Many fans had understandably lost faith during two straight utterly mediocre seasons following the former MVP's move to first base. Maybe this simply was what he was, and what we'd have to live with it until his expensive contract wrapped up in 2018.

 

This April represented a return to form. Mauer finished the month with a .321 average, ranking among the league leaders. He was spraying liners everywhere. Most encouragingly, he had regained his masterful control of the zone, walking more than twice as often as he struck out (20 to 9).

 

But here in this accursed 2016 campaign, we're not allowed those types of positive developments. It's been all downhill for Mauer over the past two months. Since lifting his OPS to .920 with a three-hit game on May 1st, he has hit .234/.317/.354. He has struck out twice for every walk (46 to 23), a stark reversal from his reinvigorated approach in April.

 

Here's a statistic that is truly incredible to me: In 208 plate appearances during that span, Mauer has hit ONE double. Slicing liners into the gaps and down the lines for two-baggers has always been a specialty, helping make up for his lack of home run power. Now, even that skill has betrayed him.

 

His strong April, and his uncharacteristic homer binge in late May, have proven to be fleeting glimpses. Mauer has gone back to being an offensive liability who does nothing well. He isn't hitting for power. He isn't getting on base. For two months he has been a rather easy out, just as he was for most of last year.

 

Strictly due to his reputation he continues to bat second or third every day, and that doesn't really matter for this season, but if things continue this way the Twins are going to need to re-examine where he fits as they look ahead.

 

It's just another in a long line of headaches facing either this or a reconfigured front office, headaches which the leadership will be forced to tackle this coming offseason.

 

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[h2oface]

Better to burn out than fade away. He might have gotten into the HOF if he was forced to retire with concussions as one of the greatest catchers to play the game, regardless of the short career. Now, with such mediocrity since he stopped catching, there is no way.

[mumoo13]

Last year he also had a pretty good April before falling off. Does something change for him in May, or has he just been lucky the last two Aprils?

[theBOMisthebomb]

It will be nice to fire up the " It's all Mauer's fault" talk once again.

[hybridbear]

So, what's wrong with him? Has his approach at the plate changed? Have pitchers changed their approach? Different combination of pitch selection & location? Different defensive shifts?

[DarrenVahtra]

When Mauer was at his best he controlled at-bats it felt as though he was just toying with the pitcher. He's just not the same guy up there he looks over matched more often than not. So sad that a brain injury robbed one of the best pure hitters of a generation of his powers.

[Winston Smith]

I'm not real sure who was saying "it's all Mauer's fault" on here. Is what Nick wrote accurate? Seems to me it was!

[Vanimal46]

I remember earlier in the season he was trending towards earning a gold glove at 1B. Is that still the case? It's disappointing that Joe's bat has disappeared lately, but there must still be some value in the glove. 

For the duration of his contract, IMO he should be a consistent starter at 1B again next season, then transition to DH and a part-time role for 2018.

[driveto105]

Joe is Joe and that's what he is but get him out of the 3 spot.  Killing our rallies.  This lineup is too inconsistent to have anything set in stone.  If he get's hot again, then move him back up but for right now, he's an absolute rally killer. 

[Willihammer]

I just can't get worked up over a 2 month stretch of .670 hitting. Yeah its not great but that's just baseball. You get hot, then get cold. Its where you wind up that matters more.

 

If he finishes the year batting in the .718 range again I'll be complaining but he could easily get hot again and wind up in the .775 range which would be fine.

 

Also, Mauer's glove is solid IMO. He regularly makes difficult plays look routine, eg. the over the shoulder catch last night.

[cjj td]

 

I just can't get worked up over a 2 month stretch of .670 hitting. Yeah its not great but that's just baseball. You get hot, then get cold. Its where you wind up that matters more.

 

Let's call it the reverse "Dozier effect" this season.  Many, including yours truly, had Brian being DONE a few weeks ago.  Now it looks like he could go up to the plate blindfolded and swinging a broomstick and still hit one out.

 

Long season.... ebbs and flows...oscillations....reversions to the mean...etc.

 

Hopefully Joe has a few more hot streaks later this year. And when he does, hopefully they last for a while.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I just can't get worked up over a 2 month stretch of .670 hitting. Yeah its not great but that's just baseball. You get hot, then get cold. Its where you wind up that matters more.

If this performance weren't so closely in line with what we've seen over the past couple of years, I wouldn't be too worked up. Alas.

[Mike Sixel]

Right, if this was new, I would not be worried, but it reminds me too much of the last two years to feel like it is an aberration. I used to love watching mauer hit, now it makes me sad to recall what he was.

[HitInAPinch]

Maybe Joe will follow the old adage "when summer warms up, so will the hitters".

 

[Rosterman]

Well, considering our options are Park and Vargas for now.......

 

I had always hoped that Kepler was getting some rotations at first base and would be our first baeman of the future (assuming Sano didn't need the shift). Seeing that we potentially could fill the outfield, it would be nice to have one of the many guys for the outfield play elsewhere....

 

Park needs some work, some seasoning. He can be our short-term first sacker.

 

But what of Mauer. Yes, move him out of the front of the lineup. Let;s keep that round of msuical chairs going for the season. Why should Joe get the same spot everyday while everyone else wanders the chairs around him.

 

Dangle him out there. Maybe he will allow  trade if a contender comes calling. That would be major salary relief.

 

Or let's get some consistency in the lineup. Return Dozier to leadoff. Bat Kepler second. Have Sano 4th when he returns and stick-with-it. 

[TheLeviathan]

Also, let's dispel the notion that 2 months of awful play aren't a problem, even if you go on some kind of binge to make it look better.  Every game you played in those two months you became a liability to your team winning games.  

 

I get some guys are streaky, but I'd like their hot/cold streaks to be much shorter lived than something you can describe as taking place over "months".

 

And we're not even on "months" any more, we're on "years".  I think his waning bat speed is sapping his ability to hit and I don't think it's coming back any time soon.  And we basically have him cemented into a full-time gig at 1B for the forseeable future.  That's a huge problem.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I just can't get worked up over a 2 month stretch of .670 hitting. Yeah its not great but that's just baseball. You get hot, then get cold. Its where you wind up that matters more.

And Mauer wound up at .718 last year, and .732 the year before.  He's got a .730 OPS over his last 15 months.

 

I agree that I can't get worked up about his 2016 performance, because there is nothing unexpected about it, or the Twins continued usage of him.

[troyhobbs]

Does Mauer even like playing baseball anymore? His lazy ho-hum attitude really bothers me. Get pissed or get excited or take some accountability for your terrible team even if it isn't your fault. I swear the guy talks to the opposition at 1B more than he talks to his own teammates. I have no clue what his work ethic is like but it sure seems like he doesn't care about W's and L's or perhaps baseball in general.

[dxpavelka]

 

Let's call it the reverse "Dozier effect" this season.  Many, including yours truly, had Brian being DONE a few weeks ago.  Now it looks like he could go up to the plate blindfolded and swinging a broomstick and still hit one out.

 

Long season.... ebbs and flows...oscillations....reversions to the mean...etc.

 

Hopefully Joe has a few more hot streaks later this year. And when he does, hopefully they last for a while.

Dozier usually doesn't go up to the plate blindfolded until after the All-Star break.

[Willihammer]

Also, let's dispel the notion that 2 months of awful play aren't a problem, even if you go on some kind of binge to make it look better.  Every game you played in those two months you became a liability to your team winning games.  

 

I get some guys are streaky, but I'd like their hot/cold streaks to be much shorter lived than something you can describe as taking place over "months".

Is that based on any research or just personal preference? I would be curious to know.

 

I know there was an article written a few years ago on fangraphs that looked at "inconsistent" pitchers including Liriano, and the conclusion was that streakiness amongst SPs was actually preferred to consistency. I wonder if the same is true of hitters.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I like Mauer personally. I just have to think as a ball player he has already hit his peak and is starting to decline a bit. I don't know why, but perhaps it has to do with his concussion and maybe even just being a catcher as well (taking a worse beating than any other position players). Maybe too his is trying too hard on a terrible team so his hitting approach has been seriously affected. But I would say this: Joe over all is the best most reliable hitter for this Twins team and far from the reason the Twins have been this bad.

[Willihammer]

If this performance weren't so closely in line with what we've seen over the past couple of years, I wouldn't be too worked up. Alas.

Fair enough. Its safe to say Mauer's best days are behind him. It still seems premature to me to say that his new mean is a .730 batter. The concussion recovery being a big wildcard here. I still hold out hope that he can settle in at the high .700s despite the last 15 months. YMMV. Edited June 29, 2016 by Willihammer

[Dr. Evil]

I would honestly either bench or flat out release Mauer and then send Park to AAA and pick your top first base prospect from the minors let him play out the season at 1B. Not sure if that would be Palka or Vargas or Walker maybe?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is that based on any research or just personal preference? I would be curious to know.

I know there was an article written a few years ago on fangraphs that looked at "inconsistent" pitchers including Liriano, and the conclusion was that streakiness amongst SPs was actually preferred to consistency. I wonder if the same is true of hitters.

 

I've tried to find a study on this......is it better to have guys hit 1 for 4 every game.....or 2 games with three hits and 4 games with no hits (or something like that)? Which one leads to more wins over 162 games?

 

I can't find one, but I'll ask on a FG chat or tweet one of them, and see....

[jimmer]

 

I would honestly either bench or flat out release Mauer and then send Park to AAA and pick your top first base prospect from the minors let him play out the season at 1B. Not sure if that would be Palka or Vargas or Walker maybe?

Wonder what our team OBP would be without his .367, considering he's second on the team?  Our team is already 14th out of 15 (only 1 point above the As) with a team OBP 58 points lower than Mauer's. 

 

The Twins on the active 25 man roster with a higher wRC+ than Mauer:

 

Grossman (give him a week or two).

Nunez

Dozier

 

Unless we're taking into account his salary, he's probably not the guy you bench or release.  Still a disappointing season for him, though, no doubt.

Edited June 29, 2016 by jimmer

[Jham]

 

I've tried to find a study on this......is it better to have guys hit 1 for 4 every game.....or 2 games with three hits and 4 games with no hits (or something like that)? Which one leads to more wins over 162 games?

 

I can't find one, but I'll ask on a FG chat or tweet one of them, and see....

Interesting concept.  My thought is that there would be a positive correlation toward the latter scenario, but I don't think the results would tell you much.

Getting 1 hit in 4 at bats for .250 average (last year's league average was .254) is likely to be almost neutral for wins and losses based on being so close to the league average without looking at average wins per team.  Going 0-4 in any particular game probably correlates slightly with a loss, certainly more so than a 1-4 day.  Going 0-4 might mean you met Chris Sale, but even Sale gives up hits.  If you went 3-4, you probably did not face Sale, you probably faced Nolasco.  You're more likely to beat Nolasco than Sale.  You might go 0-4 against someone in the middle, you might go 3-4 against someone in the middle.  But 1-4 doesn't tell me much.  Thus my hypothesis is slight correlation toward multi-hit games, but only because your probably not the only one hitting well when you go 3-4.  (correlation vs. causation).
 

[troyhobbs]

 

Grossman (give him a week or two).

Just for fun.

 

Grossman Last 7 Days    .160    .300    .200    .500

Arcia         Last 7 Days    .438    .444    .750     1.194

[Mike Sixel]

 

Interesting concept.  My thought is that there would be a positive correlation toward the latter scenario, but I don't think the results would tell you much.

Getting 1 hit in 4 at bats for .250 average (last year's league average was .254) is likely to be almost neutral for wins and losses based on being so close to the league average without looking at average wins per team.  Going 0-4 in any particular game probably correlates slightly with a loss, certainly more so than a 1-4 day.  Going 0-4 might mean you met Chris Sale, but even Sale gives up hits.  If you went 3-4, you probably did not face Sale, you probably faced Nolasco.  You're more likely to beat Nolasco than Sale.  You might go 0-4 against someone in the middle, you might go 3-4 against someone in the middle.  But 1-4 doesn't tell me much.  Thus my hypothesis is slight correlation toward multi-hit games, but only because your probably not the only one hitting well when you go 3-4.  (correlation vs. causation).
 

 

Great post......

 

I agree, there would be a TON of noise in looking at individual games.

 

What about a simulation where every player hits .280, on a consistent basis, game over game, vs a series of simulations where every player hits .280, but one month it is 240, and the other month it is 320? You'd need to run thousands of simulations to account for some times when all the players hit well the same month, vs not........

 

to me, I'm just curious if consistent performance, game after game, is more or less valuable than a series of games where a player is o fer vs 2-4 fer.....

Edited June 29, 2016 by Mike Sixel

[Dr. Evil]

Wonder what our team OBP would be without his .367, considering he's second on the team?  Our team is already 14th out of 15 (only 1 point above the As) with a team OBP 58 points lower than Mauer's. 

 

The Twins on the active 25 man roster with a higher wRC+ than Mauer:

 

Grossman (give him a week or two).

Nunez

Dozier

 

Unless we're taking into account his salary, he's probably not the guy you bench or release.  Still a disappointing season for him, though, no doubt.

I get your point, believe me. I would just prefer his playing time go to someone in the next wave. If that means we lose 2 more games this year I really don't care. Just my opinion.

[Vanimal46]

 

Great post......

 

I agree, there would be a TON of noise in looking at individual games.

 

What about a simulation where every player hits .280, on a consistent basis, game over game, vs a series of simulations where every player hits .280, but one month it is 240, and the other month it is 320? You'd need to run thousands of simulations to account for some times when all the players hit well the same month, vs not........

 

to me, I'm just curious if consistent performance, game after game, is more or less valuable than a series of games where a player is o fer vs 2-4 fer.....

Sounds like a great HYPERthetical question to me! 

Would you rather get on base 162 games in a row, but never have a multi-hit game? Or would you rather be more streaky, but have multiple 2+ hit games?