Article: Mauer Outage

[KGB]

During Mauer's entire career, slugging percentage has been move valuable than OBP.  Along with playing a position where you look for slugging and a team that should be building for the future, it's time to see less playing time for Mauer.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

[Minniman]

 

I get there is this image of Joe as this really humble guy who doesn't care about the money, but sorry, everyone cares about the money. Nobody is walking away from that kind of money.

Maybe he would agree to deferring that money over 15 years or something, or a partial ownership stake, but he's not just leaving it on the table.

And for the record, nor should he.

 

Why?

 

[Minniman]

 

That's the problem, even when you have a board chalk full of people who want to rip the front office about advanced statistics, you still get a hoard of people who will say, "he gets no RBI and always looks for a walk!"  Joe is getting on base almost 50% of the time with runners in scoring position.  That should be extremely valuable!   

 

Mauer is being paid to knock those runs in.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pretending that Mauer isn't one of the Twins problems is one of the Twins problems.

Agreed but he's also not killing the team right now. He's providing a useful skill at a position where we thought the Twins had a roster crunch but, as it turns out...

[Halsey Hall]

He has been playing good defense. I'm surprised at some of the digs and dives he makes. Still painful to see the first pitch strike down the middle though.

[Mr. Brooks]

Why?

Why what?

[TheLeviathan]

Agreed but he's also not killing the team right now. He's providing a useful skill at a position where we thought the Twins had a roster crunch but, as it turns out...

If Sano had been moved to 1B we may be watching Polanco play third or short. His OBP is nice, but not nice enough for a 1B.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If Sano had been moved to 1B we may be watching Polanco play third or short. His OBP is nice, but not nice enough for a 1B.

I'd prefer to keep Sano at third for as long as possible. In a lost season, we may as well find out if he can hack it at a more premium position.

 

Getting Polanco playing time would be nice but with Park in Rochester and Sano in Minnesota, I think the long-term play is Miguel at third (if possible).

 

Either way, it's not something I'm going to get too riled up about. As long as Sano stays in the infield, I'm moderately happy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If Sano had been moved to 1B we may be watching Polanco play third or short. His OBP is nice, but not nice enough for a 1B.

Also, not nice enough for a starting every day in a lost season.  His high OBP will still be available to us in 2017 even if we park it on the bench a bit more in 2016.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'd prefer to keep Sano at third for as long as possible. In a lost season, we may as well find out if he can hack it at a more premium position.

 

Getting Polanco playing time would be nice but with Park in Rochester and Sano in Minnesota, I think the long-term play is Miguel at third (if possible).

 

Either way, it's not something I'm going to get too riled up about. As long as Sano stays in the infield, I'm moderately happy.

 

Yeah, I want Polanco up, but I think BD is probably the route best served to get him up.  And I have to think BD can generate a decent return.  Keep Sano at 3rd for now.  Mauer, yeah, he's a problem on the team. Not one that is going to get fixed this season, or quite possibly the next two.  Hopefully new management moves him more to a bench role as better options are available.  It's an expensive bench role, but given his production, it has to be considered... unless of course he's suddenly amenable to going back behind the plate.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get the strawman that saying Mauer is not good enough at 1B, means we HATE him......

 

WAR rankings for 1B:

 

2016: 13th

2015: 18th

2014: 14th

 

If every Twins player ranked at or below median....how good would the team be, really? Don't forget, that's among qualified players, of which there are about 23-25 a year.....

 

He's ok, median or so.....but he's not "good" compared to other 1B.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Joe Mauer has the 7th best OBP in the American League. On a team chock full of players who swing from their heels at pitches over their heads, that has enormous value, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.

This probably overstates Mauer's current ability to get on base.  He had an obscene 18.9% walk rate in April.  It has been 12% since May 1st, exactly in line with his career average.  Given how his batting average has stabilized around .270 over the past 3 years, his final 2016 and true talent OBP is probably closer to .350, which would be 27th in the American League right now.  Solid, but not necessarily that special.

 

Also, the 2016 AL OBP leaderboard seems to be flukily sparse at the top.  Mauer's .370 OBP only ranks 24th in MLB right now.  Looking at past seasons, it would have only ranked 13th in the AL at the all-star break in 2015, 12th in 2014, 13th in 2013, etc.  Still good, but not quite as good/elite as his "7th in the 2016 AL" rank suggests.

[Linus]

Here is the point people are trying to make. Nobody on these boards says Joe isn't overpaid. Nobody. Everyone would like Joe to hit for more power. Everyone.

He has a guaranteed contract with a no trade clause. He's not going anywhere and he contributes enough to be playing. Get over it.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Either way, it's not something I'm going to get too riled up about. As long as Sano stays in the infield, I'm moderately happy.

 

Sano to catcher, you say?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Also, the 2016 AL OBP leaderboard seems to be flukily sparse at the top.  Mauer's .370 OBP only ranks 24th in MLB right now.  Looking at past seasons, it would have only ranked 13th in the AL at the all-star break in 2015, 12th in 2014, 13th in 2013, etc.  Still good, but not quite as good/elite as his "7th in the 2016 AL" rank suggests.

Good catch. I didn't bother to flip over to the MLB tab because I assumed the NL looked similar to the AL.

[Shaitan]

 

Here is the point people are trying to make. Nobody on these boards says Joe isn't overpaid. Nobody. Everyone would like Joe to hit for more power. Everyone.
He has a guaranteed contract with a no trade clause. He's not going anywhere and he contributes enough to be playing. Get over it.

 

Reminds me a lot of Todd Helton's contract in COL.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

he contributes enough to be playing. Get over it.

He contributes enough to be playing every day?  At the expense of Rosario, Escobar, Vargas, or even Polanco in a lost season?  (Not directly, but guys could easily be shuffled into Mauer's 1B/DH spot more often to get guys in the lineup at other positions too.)

 

If Vargas, or Arcia, or Parmelee, or whoever was putting up Mauer's 99 wRC+ for 2.5 years now and still playing virtually every day, blocking opportunities for younger potentially better players in a season where marginal wins clearly didn't matter, it would be a situation worthy of criticism.  I don't see why Mauer is above that.

[USAFChief]

 

Here is the point people are trying to make. Nobody on these boards says Joe isn't overpaid. Nobody. Everyone would like Joe to hit for more power. Everyone.
He has a guaranteed contract with a no trade clause. He's not going anywhere and he contributes enough to be playing. Get over it.

Here is the point I am trying to make:  He could try to change his approach to hitting, and perhaps be a more productive hitter.  His current approach prevents hitting with power, prevents hitting to a third of the field (his pull field), and hurts the Twins ability to score runs...since He has a guaranteed contract with a no trade clause. He's not going anywhere.

 

"Contributes enough to be playing" isn't winning the Twins many ballgames, which is the goal.  

[h2oface]

Maker's decline also correlates directly to getting married and having a family. No judgment, just fact.

Mauer's......Mauer's decline, of course. Damn spell check on this phone.

 

This observation by no means is saying it is his wife or children's fault. It has to do, as all that have a wife and or family come to know, that there are now additional compartments that need focus, and they should be just as important if not more important than baseball, especially when your contract is guaranteed.

Edited July 20, 2016 by h2oface

[DrNeau]

Some of you are trying desperately hard to muddy up the waters in this discussion. He is an AL 1B with a .372 SLG % and 29 RBIs after 93 games. He might not even get 50 RBIs, and he's on pace for 150+ games. There is no argument to fight this ineptitude. 

 

Serious question: How low will the slugging percentage need to drop until the lack of performance becomes unacceptable - even for the apologists? 

 

* .350? 

* .325? 

 

If his slugging percentage were to fall to .325, would it be acceptable to rip him then? Yes, he has a decent glove and takes a walk now and then. No one is arguing that. There is value to that. Those assets were valuable for a few years for Nick Punto, but Mauer's numbers, as an AL 1B, are clearly terrible. 

Edited July 20, 2016 by DrNeau

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Some of you are trying desperately hard to muddy up the waters in this discussion.

No, we're not muddying up anything. We're simply suggesting other stats exist beyond slugging percentage (and I won't even dignify your continued usage of RBI with a rebuttal).

 

In fact, OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than slugging percentage. If anything, I'm using a better stat than you are.

 

We all want Mauer to play better and slug higher. That isn't in dispute... But some of us aren't restricting stat usage to fit our viewpoint.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Some of you are trying desperately hard to muddy up the waters in this discussion. He is an AL 1B with a .372 SLG % and 29 RBIs after 93 games. He might not even get 50 RBIs, and he's on pace for 150+ games. There is no argument to fight this ineptitude. 

 

Serious question: How low will the slugging percentage need to drop until the lack of performance becomes unacceptable - even for the apologists? 

 

* .350? 

* .325? 

 

If his slugging percentage were to fall to .325, would it be acceptable to rip him then? Yes, he has a decent glove and takes a walk now and then. No one is arguing that. There is value to that. Those assets were valuable for a few years for Nick Punto, but Mauer's numbers, as an AL 1B, are clearly terrible. 

 

Just glancing at his splits, his OBP has been higher than his SLG in 3 out of 4 months. I don't even know what to make of that but it sounds bizarre for a 1B/DH. That has to be highly unusual outside of speedy SS/CF types and pitchers.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Taildragger8791

[Willihammer]

It is possible to win with athletic, high OBP low Slg 1B, see the early 00s teams with Dougie M. on the team.

But I'm not sure its possible to win it all that way.

 

I'd like to see Molitor man up and pare down Mauer's playing time, and drop him in the order. I wonder how Mauer would react. Maybe he would respond positively.

[jimmer]

 

It is possible to win with athletic, high OBP low Slg 1B, see the early 00s teams with Dougie M. on the team.
But I'm not sure its possible to win it all that way.

I'd like to see Molitor man up and pare down Mauer's playing time, and drop him in the order. I wonder how Mauer would react. Maybe he would respond positively.

If the guy can't slug, and his offensive skill set is getting on base, why drop him in the order?  Shouldn't your high OBP/low slugging guys be in the one and two spot to set up the sluggers? Should we shove our speedy guys who can't get on base in the top spots instead and let the guy who makes the least amount of outs get a significant amount of PAs less than them?

Edited July 20, 2016 by jimmer

[Willihammer]

If the guy can't slug, and his offensive skill set is getting on base, why drop him in the order? Shouldn't your high OBP guys be in the one and two spot to set up the sluggers?

Yes, unless dropping Mauer in the order caused him to become a better batter.

Its probably a long shot but players are territorial about those things. Dropping a veteran in the lineup could be a challenge, one that might resonate with a veteran player like Mauer.

[Monkeypaws]

Seems like batting second would make good use of his OBP, and perhaps advancing runners. 

 

Problem is, nobody really is hitting like a #3 right now except Nunez, and he's leading off.

Edited July 20, 2016 by Monkeypaws

[jimmer]

 

Seems like batting second would make good use of his OBP, and perhaps advancing runners. 

which is where he is being used more and more, like people have been wanting for years.

[KGB]

 

In fact, OBP has a higher correlation to runs scored than slugging percentage. If anything, I'm using a better stat than you are.

 

 

That is not true - from the link in my prior post:

 

"But that difference doesn’t mean that OBP>SLG is an iron rule. Take 2015, for example. The correlation coefficient between on-base percentage and runs per game for the 30 teams last year was just 0.644, compared to 0.875 for slugging percentage. Slugging won in 2014 too, 0.857-0.797. And 2013, 0.896-0.894. And 2012, and 2011, and 2010, and 2009, and every single year starting in the Moneyball season of 2002. Slugging percentage, not on-base percentage, is on a 14-year run as the best predictor of offense."

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That is not true - from the link in my prior post:

 

"But that difference doesn’t mean that OBP>SLG is an iron rule. Take 2015, for example. The correlation coefficient between on-base percentage and runs per game for the 30 teams last year was just 0.644, compared to 0.875 for slugging percentage. Slugging won in 2014 too, 0.857-0.797. And 2013, 0.896-0.894. And 2012, and 2011, and 2010, and 2009, and every single year starting in the Moneyball season of 2002. Slugging percentage, not on-base percentage, is on a 14-year run as the best predictor of offense."

Interesting. I've read articles stating the exact opposite. I'll try to dig one up if I have the time.

[DocBauer]

First of all, I have always been a Mauer fan and supporter. And I dont care about the value of his contract. He earned his money fairly. It's not his fault his career has taken a dive due to his concussions (plus wear and tear) Get over the hate. And I've previously argued that fine defense at 1B, contact, and quality OB have a place in the lineup. There are many ways to build a roster/lineup, and not every position on every team is stocked by a player who is pigeon-holed in to a certain type.

 

And while I wholeheartedly agree Sano IS a 3B, and is OK there, and will get better, (little weight loss would probably help), and any move to QB is probably years away, I do see a potential problem at 1B/DH. There are a lot of unknowns here to be uncovered still. But Vargas is not some fly by night washed out prospect. He's young, has some real potential, has a nice milb track history of production, showed his potential in 2014, but had a rough 2015. Park has real potential. Fully healthy, we may not be even debating his worth at this point. And he has a nice glove at 1B. Palka appears to have nice potential, and may have been a steal. Walker is an enigma, but an enigma who has produced at every level, seems to be making some adjustments, and shouldn't be counted out even if he needs more AAA time, or a full season, in 2017. Additionally, a team doesn't HAVE to have a full time DH. But if you've got real depth in the OF and 1B, you can roll everyone for half days off through the DH spot.

 

Unfortunately, Mauer's skills as a batter have diminished greatly. I won't bag on him for his OB or good defense. Those are fine things. But are those things enough to continue taking up a roster spot these next two seasons when we may actually have good young hitters knocking on the door? I don't know if trying to move him to a team with a chance to compete for the next couple of years is the answer, (with his blessing and eating dollars of course), or attempting a buyout to move on, or suggested retirement are the answers. But I'm just not sure he fits with the future direction of this team any longer.