A Lowe-Cost Solution to the Twins' First Base Situation

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of David Dermer - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There are a few spots on the Twins’ roster that have some pretty large question marks heading into next season, and first base is certainly one of them.

Minnesota has a few players capable of handling the position, including Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis and Victor Caratini. However, Clemens spent much of the second half of the season at second base, Caratini could be taking over as the primary catcher if Ryan Jeffers leaves in free agency, and Lewis has some performance concerns of his own.

With that in mind, I think veteran first baseman Nathaniel Lowe could be an intriguing addition for the Twins this offseason. Lowe has spent time with six different teams over the course of his eight-year major league career, including four different clubs in just the last two seasons. That might raise some red flags at first glance, but there’s still plenty to like about what he brings to the table, particularly against right-handed pitching.

Lowe finished the 2026 season with a .252/.317/.444 slash line and a .761 OPS, which is a respectable showing for a first baseman. He had posted an .820 OPS with the Cincinnati Reds before being moved to the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline, but his production took a hit following the move. Even with his struggles in Cleveland, though, his underlying numbers suggest he was a better hitter than his final batting line would indicate.

His expected batting average was .268, 16 points higher than his actual mark. That strong mark placed him in the 80th percentile among major league hitters. Lowe also finished above league average in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity, while his chase and whiff rates both ranked in the 65th percentile.

It wasn’t an overly flashy season, but Lowe was a quality hitter who could provide some stability to a Twins lineup that needs it. More importantly, his splits suggest Minnesota could get the most out of his bat by using him in a platoon role. As a left-handed hitter, Lowe has consistently been much more effective against right-handed pitching than against southpaws. In 380 plate appearances against righties this season, he posted an .822 OPS. In his 49 plate appearances against left-handers, however, that figure plummeted to a putrid .297.

Those numbers make it pretty clear that Lowe shouldn't be an everyday option regardless of the matchup. His defense also isn't good enough to make up for his offensive shortcomings against left-handed pitching, which is where the Twins could get creative with their roster construction.

By bringing Lowe aboard as their primary first baseman, Minnesota could establish a platoon with Lewis. Lowe would handle the bulk of the starts against right-handed pitchers, while Lewis could get opportunities at first base when a lefty takes the mound. That arrangement could make sense for both players. While Lewis has struggled against right-handed pitching, posting a 77 wRC+, he was actually a productive hitter against lefties. His .738 OPS and 104 wRC+ against southpaws suggest he could be a valuable option in those matchups.

Of course, that doesn't mean Lewis would be relegated to a short-side platoon role at first base for the entire season. He could still see time at second base and designated hitter, depending on how the rest of the roster comes together. However, having Lowe available would give Derek Shelton more flexibility to put his players in positions to succeed rather than forcing Lewis into an everyday role at first.

It might not be the flashiest move the Twins make this offseason, but it's one that could address a legitimate weakness on the roster. First base became a significant problem for Minnesota in the second half of the season, and while Lowe isn't going to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense, his bat would be a meaningful upgrade. Just as importantly, the Twins wouldn't have to commit to an everyday role at the position. They could lean on Lowe against right-handed pitching, give Lewis favorable matchups against lefties, and use the designated hitter spot to keep both bats involved when it makes sense.

There could also be a financial incentive to pursue Lowe. With a salary floor likely on the horizon, Minnesota will need to increase its payroll, and adding an established major league hitter would be one way to do that without necessarily making a major long-term commitment.

The Twins have plenty of areas to address this winter, and first base might not be the most pressing need on the roster. Still, Lowe could offer a relatively straightforward solution to a position that lacked consistent production down the stretch. If Minnesota is looking for an affordable veteran who can improve the lineup while giving Shelton more matchup flexibility, he's certainly a name worth considering.

 

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[Jeff K]

A bit "Lowe" on octane.  Would prefer a stronger move.

[Linus]

No, just no. Most articles I read have a theme of “this guy isn’t that good but if we platoon him…….”  I believe there is a 13 man roster limit. How about we actually find a solution that makes a difference. 

[MeleMouth]

Are we going to get a parade of articles about how signing "affordable" Tier 3 free agents could, unlike just about every time in the past, make a difference next year?

Look, Lowe isn't terrible, but he would kind of be the Trevor Larnach of first basemen: a left-handed, part-time, average hitter with poor fielding, except that it looks like he doesn't hit as well as Larnach anymore. Sure, he might be pretty affordable, but that doesn't mean he would raise the ceiling of the team.

These are the kind of moves a team makes when it doesn't expect to compete, but doesn't want to try someone who's untested, so it needs a placeholder for a position.

[Whitey333]

Nothing against Lowe but this doesnt move tge needle at all.  We already have players that platoon at first.  Stop the platooning.  We need regular first baseman to play everyday.  Its also not Lewis.  He needs to go.

[BobAzar]

I say no, but only because I can never remember if he is Lowe (pronoucned low) or Lowe (pronounced like ouch, without the -ch). 

[nicksaviking]

This is the kind of player I'd like to avoid this year. Go big, or stay internal. I'm far from the biggest Clemens champion, but I don't know why you just wouldn't roll with him if this is the caliber of player we're targeting. 

And I'd also prefer seeing if 1B is a good spot for Keaschall long term.

[mike8791]

No question 1B is a position of need if Twins are serious about contending over the next several years, starting in 2027.  As others have noted, Lowe is not the man going forward; we don't need another part-time 1B.  Our offense now is average at best.  We need a player who lifts the ceiling, not the floor.

The FA 1B market is weak, unless you believe France's big 2026 season is repeatable.  Two players stand out via trade :  Alec Burleson and Michael Busch.  Burleson would cost a ton to pry him loose from the Cards;  Busch, with a dip in production last year, maybe less so, but he is young enough(28) to rebound to his 2025 results.  Because there is a risk, he would almost certainly cost less in trade capital than Burleson.  While I would hate to give up Ryan in a one for one trade, our "surplus" of starters would help lessen the pain. Better yet,   perhaps one of our top OF prospects(not named Jenkins) would be enticing to the Cubs who could lose Happ and Suzuki in FA.  In addition, a young starter like Mathews, Prielipp or Abel could seal the deal.

In any case, stop the experiment withe Lewis, do not get a short-term filler like Lowe and go big for a change.  Such a transaction would be very unTwins-like, but its long overdue in this underachieving FO.

[DJL44]

Brandon Lowe would make a difference in the lineup and on defense. Nathaniel Lowe not so much.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Linus said:

No, just no. Most articles I read have a theme of “this guy isn’t that good but if we platoon him…….”  I believe there is a 13 man roster limit. How about we actually find a solution that makes a difference. 

This. A platoon at first? Insanity. 

[Mike Sixel]

59 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

This is the kind of player I'd like to avoid this year. Go big, or stay internal. I'm far from the biggest Clemens champion, but I don't know why you just wouldn't roll with him if this is the caliber of player we're targeting. 

And I'd also prefer seeing if 1B is a good spot for Keaschall long term.

Right. 

[killercarewoliva]

this is not a solution at first base and neither is Royce Lewis. I didn't get through the first paragraph before. I could easily see this idea is a mistake. first base needs someone who can do the job. all season left and right. I can think of a few people The twins have employed to do just that. first phase is not a position he want to do platoon with.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This. A platoon at first? Insanity. 

It’s fine as a plan C if someone gets injured or a way to make the most of an aging player with a bloated contract but it’s not a plan A that will lead to success.

2 hours ago, Linus said:

 I believe there is a 13 man roster limit.

 I don’t see this as a problem. The Twins only used 11 position players for most of the summer. 

[Twins GFP]

Pretty much as everyone is saying. Lowe doesn't move the needle. At this point FA or trade moves should really raise the entire level of the team, not just raise the floor.

[Jack Pine]

Nooooo.

[Whammy]

I'd rather wait out the Alex Bohm market.

I'd much rather get the other Lowe, but that's far less realistic. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

So we should replace the guys currently playing first base with a guy of pretty much the same quality?  Aim higher or go with youth!

[Linus]

This is a great opportunity for TP to show us how serious he is about winning and increasing payroll: Jake Bauers. 

[Coach]

Who had better combined first base  fielding and hitting stats than Kody Clemens extrapolated over a 162 game season

When Kody Clemens' performance at first base during the 2026 MLB season is mathematically extrapolated over a full 162-game schedule (scaled to roughly 1,458 defensive innings and 650 plate appearances), his statistical profile transforms into a massive hypothetical monster:
• Extrapolated 162-Game Hitting: .245 AVG, 54 Home Runs, and 124 RBIs (based on his 11 HR and 25 RBIs in 128 plate appearances at 1B).
• Extrapolated 162-Game Fielding: 20 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) (extrapolated from 5 DRS in 366 innings).
Because an extrapolated line of 54 HRs and 20 DRS represents a historic, MVP-caliber campaign, no real-world MLB player in 2026 actually beat those combined, pace-adjusted figures.
However, looking at the everyday stars who actually played a complete 162-game season, the primary first basemen who produced superior cumulative real-world value and elite baseline stats include:

1. Ty France (San Diego Padres)
• Real-World Value: France didn't have Clemens' isolated home run pace, but he was an elite everyday contributor who won the Gold Glove. He posted an excellent overall batting line (.270+ AVG / .350+ OBP) with 15+ home runs across 128+ games.
• Defensive Baseline: France was the only first baseman in baseball to outpace Clemens' extrapolated defensive rate in sheer volume, leading all of MLB with 15 real-world DRS.

2. Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves)
• Real-World Value: Olson actually took the field for all 162 games. He combined elite durability with premier run production, hitting 30+ home runs while maintaining a much higher on-base presence (.345+ OBP) than Clemens' overall .298 mark.
• Defensive Baseline: Olson anchored the National League defensively, securing 11 real-world DRS at the cold corner over a full season's workload.

[bjorks]

I was gonna say something then I had to swallow the vomit thinking about Lewis/Lowe combo. Two average players don't always make a good hybrid. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Coach said:

Who had better combined first base  fielding and hitting stats than Kody Clemens extrapolated over a 162 game season

When Kody Clemens' performance at first base during the 2026 MLB season is mathematically extrapolated over a full 162-game schedule (scaled to roughly 1,458 defensive innings and 650 plate appearances), his statistical profile transforms into a massive hypothetical monster:
• Extrapolated 162-Game Hitting: .245 AVG, 54 Home Runs, and 124 RBIs (based on his 11 HR and 25 RBIs in 128 plate appearances at 1B).
• Extrapolated 162-Game Fielding: 20 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) (extrapolated from 5 DRS in 366 innings).
Because an extrapolated line of 54 HRs and 20 DRS represents a historic, MVP-caliber campaign, no real-world MLB player in 2026 actually beat those combined, pace-adjusted figures.
However, looking at the everyday stars who actually played a complete 162-game season, the primary first basemen who produced superior cumulative real-world value and elite baseline stats include:

1. Ty France (San Diego Padres)
• Real-World Value: France didn't have Clemens' isolated home run pace, but he was an elite everyday contributor who won the Gold Glove. He posted an excellent overall batting line (.270+ AVG / .350+ OBP) with 15+ home runs across 128+ games.
• Defensive Baseline: France was the only first baseman in baseball to outpace Clemens' extrapolated defensive rate in sheer volume, leading all of MLB with 15 real-world DRS.

2. Matt Olson (Atlanta Braves)
• Real-World Value: Olson actually took the field for all 162 games. He combined elite durability with premier run production, hitting 30+ home runs while maintaining a much higher on-base presence (.345+ OBP) than Clemens' overall .298 mark.
• Defensive Baseline: Olson anchored the National League defensively, securing 11 real-world DRS at the cold corner over a full season's workload.

You can’t just extrapolate small samples without regression. 

We don’t need to extrapolate offensive numbers for Clemens, just use his ZIPS projection for 2027. He should be around 100 OPS+.

Over the last 5 seasons he’s 7 OAA at 1B over 177 games. Expect him to be around 6 OAA at first base over a full season or 10 RField. That’s above average but not quite Gold Glove defense.

Clemens is roughly a 2-3 WAR first baseman over a full season.

Go get one of the four free agent second basemen and use what they already have at first base.