Three Seasons In, I Still Have No Idea What to Make of Brooks Lee

[Cody Schoenmann]

Brooks Lee broke out in 2026. There’s no debate around that. There is debate about what qualifies as a “breakout campaign,” yes, but Lee’s case is as clear-cut. Over his first 712 plate appearances, Lee manufactured a 71 wRC+, 29 points below league-average. He was similarly dreadful in the field, netting -6 Outs Above Average (OAA) mixing between second base, third base, and short. As a result, the former first-round pick netted 0.0 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) over 189 games, performing at a replacement-level rate.

 

Despite being an offensive and defensive liability in his first two seasons in the majors, Lee flashed the raw talent that led to him getting selected eighth overall in the 2022 MLB Amateur Draft and his accelerated progression through the minors, showing plus power and plate discipline. His skill set was realized in 2026, with the 25-year-old hitting .253/.300/.407 with 24 home runs and a 101 wRC+ over 631 plate appearances.

 

The driving factor behind Lee’s offensive turnaround was the switch-hitter’s ability to produce while hitting left-handed, earning a 120 wRC+ over 424 plate appearances in 2026 compared to a combined 69 wRC+ over 482 plate appearances the prior two seasons. He regressed from the right side of the plate (63 wRC+ in 2026 compared to a combined 77 wRC+ the prior two seasons). Yet, his regression is less consequential when he’s netting roughly 200 fewer plate appearances from the right-handed batter’s box.

 

He also significantly improved defensively, transitioning from the primary shortstop to full-time third baseman in late May. Lee went from being one of the worst shortstops in baseball (netting -6 OAA over 167 attempts) to quickly becoming an elite third baseman, netting 6 OAA over 284 attempts. Undergoing a 12-point OAA swing, Lee generated his first positive season at the plate and in the field, netting 2.9 fWAR. Again, he accumulated 2.9 more fWAR in 2026 than his first two seasons in the majors: he underwent one of the more pronounced breakout 2026 campaigns in the sport.

 

Lee generated the second-most fWAR on the Twins, second only to Luke Keaschall, who earned 3.0. If we are to strip all context and analyze Lee’s performance by strictly looking at the metrics, he was the Twins' second-best player. Of course, that doesn’t feel true, and it probably isn’t. Byron Buxton is better than Lee, but he was hurt for a significant portion of the season. The same goes with Ryan Jeffers. Also, Joe Ryan is a better starting pitcher than Lee is a position player. However, injuries and a late-season collapse derailed his fWAR totals, placing him below Lee.

 

Still, Lee was almost Minnesota’s most productive player this season. Yes, the club was bad, but that doesn’t happen by accident. He had to make meaningful improvements to take such a pronounced step forward—and he did defensively. He is actually one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball now. Yet his underlying hitting metrics suggest he was largely the same player as in 2024 and 2025, making his 20-point jump in wRC+ feel unsustainable.

 

He had poor bat speed again. He kept chasing pitches outside the zone. He rarely ever walked, and he made a ton of weak contact, similar to his first two seasons in the majors. So, what changed? Why was he a dramatically better hitter in 2026 than in 2025 and 2024?

 

Despite most of his underlying metrics remaining unimpressive, he made a monumental shift in hitting philosophy in 2026, prioritizing quality of contact over contact itself. He matured into a quality-over-quantity bat, laying off pitches outside the zone less and making better contact on pitches in the zone. He was able to hit strikes in the air far more often in 2026 than the prior two seasons, resulting in him hitting more doubles and home runs (49) in 2026 than 2024 and 2025 combined (40). Maturing his plate approach with elite raw skills, Lee became the hitter Twins Territory had long yearned for him to become. Combining that with an elite defensive profile, there’s no surprise he was almost a 3-WAR player.

 

That said, his underwhelming underlying metrics shouldn’t be ignored. If his approach converts back to his pre-2026 form, he will regress to a sub-replacement-level bat in 2027; that is a reality we must confront. And if that happens, there is a real chance he could hit his way out of being a full-time player. Moving to third and excelling at the position raises his floor, but still—a postseason-contending team can’t play a 69 wRC+ hitter every game. Alternatively, Lee could build off his breakout 2026 campaign, playing at an All-Star-caliber level early next season, solidifying himself as a core member of the next good Twins team.

 

Either outcome is well within reason. And yes, this level of variance is possible for every major league player. We just witnessed Cal Raleigh regress from an MVP-caliber catcher to one of the sport’s worst hitters in one season. Yet, Lee feels like one of the most volatile position players in baseball. Again, I say feel because this is largely a vibes-based analysis, but his underlying metrics make these doubts reasonable. Three seasons in, I don’t know what to make of Lee. He could regress into a bench bat; continue his current slightly above-average pace; or be the AL’s starting third baseman in the 2027 All-Star Game—None of these outcomes would shock me.

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[D.C Twins]

He will likely be an above average MLB 3rd baseman. (not an ALL-Star... or winning big awards)

This is a GOOD thing. Even championship contenders need to have players like this on their roster.

Very valuable, especially while he is under team control

[nova_twins]

Lee looks like trade bait to me, not this off-season but potentially next year. He'll need a solid (around average) offensive year to have much value of course. 

[Patzky]

26 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

He will likely be an above average MLB 3rd baseman. (not an ALL-Star... or winning big awards)

This is a GOOD thing. Even championship contenders need to have players like this on their roster.

Very valuable, especially while he is under team control

You know what else Lee did? He didn't get hurt. He was available virtually season long. 

 

[DJL44]

This year felt like he hit his peak upside. I expect a Joe Crede level career.

[HarmonK03]

Lee had similar numbers to Bell in almost all categories while batting all over in the lineup and yet many are calling for Bell to return but don't know if a 25 year old Lee who can play plus defense has a future with the Twins.  Not everyone will be a star, you need players like Lee to help support the stars.  What we need are more stars.

This was Lee's second full year and he has gotten better every year.  We should be cheering for this development and production.

[PuckettPond]

Lee will hit 30-35 HRs next season as the Twins have him @ his natural position of 3rd base. Looking relaxed, confident will only increase his production next year with an off season of hard work & weight training. Bigger, stronger, better.

[TheLeviathan]

The underlying metrics give pause for skepticism, totally fair.  But I think this kid's makeup is one worth betting on.  I think he's going to be a good player for us and one that we can pencil in the lineup everyday at 3B for the forseeable future.

[weitz41]

Do players bulk up at 3B? I ask because Royce looks different (way more muscular) today then say 2022. If so, can we expect a little more power from Lee in 2027 and beyond?

[LastOnePicked]

21 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The underlying metrics give pause for skepticism, totally fair.  But I think this kid's makeup is one worth betting on.  I think he's going to be a good player for us and one that we can pencil in the lineup everyday at 3B for the forseeable future.

You know me - I'm down on everything Twins. But I haven't felt this good about a Twins 3B since Gary Gaetti.

[bean5302]

Exact same player at the plate as he was in his previous 2 years. Balls he hit just had eyes or cleared the fence by 1 foot rather than being a warning track out. Lee was far better against sliders this year which probably helped him a lot by making him more difficult to put away at the end of an at bat.

Sub-1 WAR player next year.

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, nova_twins said:

Lee looks like trade bait to me, not this off-season but potentially next year. He'll need a solid (around average) offensive year to have much value of course. 

If they're trading Lee next year, it means they've started a roster reboot at precisely the wrong time and with the wrong players.

[SE23]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Sub-1 WAR player next year.

Equal chance he's a 3+ WAR guy next year.

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, SE23 said:

Equal chance he's a 3+ WAR guy next year.

Not sure what world you're living in, but the metrics said Brooks Lee just had the only decent season he'll have in his career in MLB.

[SE23]

2 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not sure what world you're living in, but the metrics said Brooks Lee just had the only decent season he'll have in his career in MLB.

I'm not a big metrics guy

[SE23]

Just now, SE23 said:

I'm not a big metrics guy

At least, not metrics only.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Once he got to third base, he seemed like a pretty solid player.  We'll see if his bat takes another step forward, which would make him closer to an all-star, or a step back which makes him last year's version of Brooks Lee.  I'm not personally a huge fan because I got turned off waiting for him to be something above mediocre, but I will admit he at least has me interested to see his development going forward.  Good for him!  If only a few others (ahem. . . . Lewis. . . Wallner. . . Martin. . . Matthews. . . et al) would take that step forward. 

[PuckettPond]

Last off season he trained his body to play SS this off season he will train to play 3rd, there is a difference. 

[nova_twins]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

If they're trading Lee next year, it means they've started a roster reboot at precisely the wrong time and with the wrong players.

Big talk about a guy with 2.8 career fwar in 345 games. 

[terrydactyls]

The guy had a very nice season, especially after moving to 3B.  But the holy gods of Metrics World refuse to acknowledge what he did.  "Metrics say".....  Barf.  He won't be good because an algorithm (that may be totally wrong) says so.  I prefer to watch him play.  He looks like a decent ballplayer.  And he's better than anyone else in the Twins system right now.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, nova_twins said:

Big talk about a guy with 2.8 career fwar in 345 games. 

Almost all of which were accrued this very season. 

Maybe it's a fluke or career year.

But is it implausible a player might simply continue to improve while maturing from age 23 to age 25?