Mick Abel’s Potential Is No Longer Enough

Throwing around the term “upside” and playing the “what if?” game is always fun for a little while. But at some point, you actually need to see that upside turn into production. And 2027 feels like the year that needs to happen for Twins right-hander Mick Abel.

Abel was a force to be reckoned with during 2026 spring training, which ultimately led to him earning a spot in the big league rotation to start the year. After pitching his way onto the Opening Day roster, however, things got off to a pretty rough start. He struggled mightily in his first two outings, allowing nine earned runs across just 7 1/3 innings. That certainly wasn’t the introduction the Twins were hoping for, but something clicked after those first two starts.

Mick Abel, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. https://t.co/b3ijkMHeFN

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 15, 2026

He rattled off 13 scoreless innings across his next two outings, striking out 16 while walking just three. Suddenly, the pitcher who had shown so much promise during spring training was beginning to look like the potential frontline starter the Twins hoped they had acquired.

Unfortunately, that turned out to be the last we’d see of Abel in 2026. He landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation in mid-April before suffering a setback with discomfort in his elbow and triceps during a bullpen session. Abel ultimately underwent microscopic elbow surgery in July, bringing a premature end to what had been a very promising start to his first season with the Twins.

We saw the upside. We saw the answer to the “what if?” question. Now, the Twins need to see the sustained production.

There are obviously plenty of legitimate reasons for the Twins to remain excited about what he can become, but eventually, the flashes need to turn into something more substantial. The Twins’ starting rotation entering the 2027 season figures to be a strong point of the roster, too, which could make Abel’s path to a regular spot a little more complicated. Joe Ryan, barring a trade this winter, should headline the group, while Pablo López should be back to full health and provide a quality arm toward the top of the rotation. We also saw a huge breakout from Taj Bradley in 2026, while Connor Prielipp delivered a solid rookie season. And it doesn’t even end there.

Trade deadline acquisition Dean Kremer finished with a 3.48 ERA in Minnesota over the final two months of the season, giving the Twins another legitimate option for the rotation heading into next year. Bailey Ober could remain in the mix, as well, while there’s no telling what 2027 has in store for guys like Zebby Matthews and Kendry Rojas. Then there’s the possibility that the Twins add another starter through free agency or a trade this winter. Abel won’t just be handed a rotation spot simply because of what he showed in 2026. There will be plenty of competition, and that could be a good thing for a pitcher entering such an important season.

If Abel wants to prove he can be a big league starter, the clock is ticking. 2027 seems like a pivotal year for him, but the good news is that the traits are there. In what was, admittedly, a very small sample, Abel flashed the traits of a potential frontline arm. His whiff, chase and strikeout rates were all pretty comfortably above league average, and his four-seam fastball was actually his biggest whiff pitch. That’s a pretty strong foundation to work from.

He doesn’t need to suddenly reinvent himself this offseason. Instead, the goal should be continuing to refine the rest of his arsenal and figuring out how to consistently turn those raw ingredients into outs. If he can keep refining his secondary pitches and build off what he showed during those two dominant outings, there’s reason to believe he can take another significant step forward in 2027.

Obviously, staying healthy is a different question entirely. There’s no way around the fact that Abel’s elbow surgery adds another layer of uncertainty to his outlook. The Twins will have to be mindful of his workload as he works his way back, and his ability to stay on the mound will ultimately determine just how much he can contribute next season. But the stuff is there. He showed enough during spring training and his brief time in the majors to make it clear why the Twins are still intrigued by his potential.

At the same time, potential can only carry a player so far. A lot can, and probably will, change over the next six or so months between now and the start of the season. Injuries and offseason moves will happen, and those developments will undoubtedly impact how the Twins’ starting rotation looks on Opening Day.

There’s no question Abel can make a difference for this team. He has the stuff to be a legitimate big league starter, and if everything clicks, he could eventually become much more than that. But he’ll enter 2027 with plenty of question marks surrounding him. Next season is about turning those flashes into something the Twins can count on. The upside has never really been the question. Now, it’s time to see what that upside actually looks like over the course of a full season.

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