Out of Patience: Emmanuel Rodriguez's Lack of Remaining Options Is a Problem

[HarmonK03]

58 minutes ago, Cris E said:

Calling up kids to sit on the bench is not fruitful.

Roden and Martin don't play a lot, and Buxton is going to cut into that when he returns.

Not playing the kids is a choice just like today sitting Culpepper after playing two days.  Roden is our strong side platoon and is playing every day when there is a RH pitcher starting and Martin is the short side platoon,  I don't think you can say the don't play a lot because that is just not true.  Martin is only playing less because he doesn't start against RH pitching, but he gets into most games.

[HarmonK03]

32 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I agree but I do see the logic. It's not about this year, it's about next year. Jackson has been pretty good this year in a limited sample size. Good defense and he's hit. Jackson is the 2027 backup or platoon catcher in the likely event that Jeffers isn't back. He has another year of arbitration left and will be a less than $2 million guy so if we put him on waivers and he's claimed (very likely), the claiming team has him next year. He won't be available for us to re-sign. That puts us back in the very grim FA market for backup/platoon catchers since we have nobody in the minors that is ready to make the jump. I get why they want to have him around for 2027. The price of doing that is to keep him on the roster in 2026.

Still, part of me really wants them to call up Jenkins to see if can catch lightning in a bottle for the stretch run. Really, the only way to do that is to either send Martin back to AAA or waive Jackson. Martin has one option left and I suspect they want to keep that for next year, plus he has an OPS of over .800 against lefties this year with a .400 OBP and had a .893 OPS against lefties last year with over .400 OBP. That has value and he serviceable in the OF. That just leaves waiving Jackson. My guess is that Jenkins stays at AAA until there's an injury, especially since he's not exactly tearing it up there. I also guess there will be an injury and he will get a shot at some point this year.

 

Jackson has never sniffed .300 even in limited time in his career, do you really think that is sustainable.  The majority of players just don't all of a sudden turn it on at age 30, Clemens is a rare example.  I believe his value is being overrated, if he could contribute they would find some AB's for him.  This aversion to any risk is keeping the team in mediocrity, Zoll is just Falvey 2.0.

If you can't find another catcher equal to Jackson in the offseason, they might be in the wrong business.

[HarmonK03]

34 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

I like Roden's future, but it seems a pretty easy move to send down a .192 hitter

The only future Roden should have with this organization is as organizational filler.  He will be 27 before next season and has not taken hold of any of his opportunities with us or Toronto.  And he honestly looks like he is regressing every game.

[LA Vikes Fan]

29 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Rodriguez has to be rostered next year. Unless you're dead set on moving him this offseason, I'd argue that trying to roster a guy with zero MLB experience is less fruitful than giving him PAs at the expense of Martin or Roden. 

I said it above, but how often is Buxton is starting in CF? How much "sitting," would Jenkins or Emma actually do? 

I think you can find 2 or 3 games a week for another outfielder, probably not 4. Is that enough? Think it through. Six games a week, 18 "games" a week in the OF. Buxton takes at least 4, probably 5, with one game on the bench and one game as the DH. Bell takes the rest of the games as the DH, maybe ceding one more to Jeffers when Caratini is catching. No more slack at the DH spot other than maybe 1 game a week for the outfielders. Bell leads the team in RBIs and has been hitting well lately. There is absolutely no world in which he doesn't start at DH at least 4 or 5 games a week, most likely 5, and 6 on the weeks without an off day. Keaschall has been our best hitter since July 1 by far. He gets 5 games a week, frankly maybe all 6. They are not going to play him at 2B again because of his atrocious defense unless there's an emergency or an injury. Larnach is slumping right now for sure, but still has an on-base percentage over .360 and a track record of being able to hit RH MLB pitching. Martin has an over.800 OPS against LH pitching this year and it was over .890 last year so he is the platoon guy against LH pitching. All of this compares to two guys who have potential, but neither of whom is tearing up AAA, and have no MLB track record. They are complete unknowns at the MLB level. I would argue that Emma is very likely to initially fail at the MLB level since he has an over 30% strikeout rate in AAA, over 37% this year, so he is likely to be a 35% to 40% strikeout guy or more for a while until he gets his feet wet. He also just came back after 100 days off so he needs at least two weeks to knock the rust off before he's of any likely value at all. I don't think he helps us much at all this year.

So where does that leave us? Depends on what you do with Larnach and Martin. You start with 18 available games in the OF and at least 10 of those go to Buxton and Keaschall, maybe 11. That leaves 8 and Larnach gets at least 4 of those 8. So, you could get 4 games a week for another guy if you never play Martin but why would you do that when he has a very good track record against LH pitching and Jenkins and Emma both hit LH and have no track record at all? At most, you would reduce his role and that of Larnach, or play Buxton in CF only four days a week, to give them one of them a 2 or 3, maaaaybe 4 day a week role. There is no way you can find playing time for both of them unless you send Martin down, thereby blowing all of his options rather than saving his last one for next season, or one of the other 3 0Fs is benched or gets hurt. I actually think it might be worth it to try to get Jenkins a few games in mid August just to see if he can be that instant spark kind of guy, but you would have to do that at the expense of playing time for Larnach and Martin. And I am talking about a very short, instant response type of experiment. Give him 20 AB's and if he takes off, he keeps playing. If not, he either goes back down or sits on the bench. As long as we are still in contention for a playoff spot, you can't bring a guy up and start force-feeding him ABs if you have competent options at his positions. It's not fair to the rest of the team because you're basically punting a little on this year unless the new guy hits right off the bat. That doesn't happen very often. Moreover, Buxton is taking Roden's roster spot this weekend so you have to either waive Jackson, which screws you up at catcher for next year unless you somehow magically re-sign Jeffers, or demote Martin who both doesn't deserve it and then will have no options left for next year.

So for me, is Jenkins worth a call up and a short-term experiment? Sure, but only if someone goes on the IL to open up the roster spot. And that can be anybody since there is enough positional flexibility to move guys around. Emma hasn't earned it and has been hurt most of the year so he's a hard no less injuries open up a second spot. Otherwise, there is no room at the Inn.

[TJSweens]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Keaschall's home is 2nd base and I think that will become clear this offseason. 

If Keaschall's home was 2nd base, the Twins wouldn't have moved him to the OF. Luke is clearly a substandard fielder, but he is less bad in the OF.

[TheLeviathan]

Whether you thought the Twins should be buyers or sellers there was a desperate need for this team to move OFs from the 40 man at the trade deadline.

Don't want to sell?  Ok, then it's time to move E-rod and Wallner for something else.  Bullpen.  Starter.  Whatever.

Want to sell? High point to sell Larnach, move off Bell and give ABs to the young kids.

Either way they need to do something since they piled Roden into this group, signed Bell, kept Larnach, and turned their 40 man into a waystation for lefty hitting outfielders with serious question marks.

[Linus]

The Twins created this problem twice over. Rostering Outman in their never ending quest to raise the floor was the first problem. Secondly, and I’m not going to beat this dead horse, choosing to “go for it” pretty much guaranteed the younger upside players were going to be delayed. Unfortunately even if they fall out of “contention” they will get nothing from Bell, Jeffers, Larnach, etc. 

[mikelink45]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

His OPS is 150 points lower than Wallner and Sabato.  He ranks 12th in OPS among Saints players.  His numbers are decent and he has been a little better lately, but I would not characterize his production as demanding a spot on the MLB roster.   

His batting is on an upsurge, but his fielding has never been a question and Wallner and Sabato do not carry gloves in their resumes.

 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Rooker was holding his own with good expected metrics when the Twins gave up on him. He wasn't "bad" so I'm not exactly sure how to look at that.

Rooker was given a very, very short leash in April, 2021. His demotion came after 8 games, and he was recalled on 7/23/21. After the recall, Rooker was .219/.317/.425 wRC+ 106, wOBA .324, xwOBA .361 over 183 PA. That's the last Rooker ever saw action in Minnesota. Falvey bailed on Rooker in favor of Kyle Garlick. It was asinine IMHO. If the Twins front office continues to toss players who are raking by expected metrics, the Twins are going nowhere regardless.

 

 

Well he was traded and two other teams gave up on him until the A's gave him consistent playing time where he finally made some headway. That's not just the Twins.

If you look back his defense in left was not good with the Twins.  How do you feel about Matt Wallner who had a WRC+ of 141 and 154 a few years back?  Lot's of people here feel he is not a good defender and too strikeout prone.  Pretty much Rooker like.  Do you see them bringing Matt back soon?

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

While I might make a different decision since I'm a fan and not a front office guy, I think the decision to keep Jackson on the roster at the likely expense of calling up Jenkins is defensible. Jackson's roster spot depends a little bit about how you prioritize this year versus next year. If we waive him, he's gone and another team will use his arbitration year next year so he's gone for 2026 and for 2027. I suspect the thinking is that we will need him in 2027 two pair with Caratini when Jeffers is gone and he's better than anything we have in the minors or likely to be available on the free agent market, particularly at is likely less than $2 million a year price.

So the key question is what's more important, adding a bat Jenkins who could but might not help us more than Jackson for the stretch run in 2026 or having Jackson available in 2027 to be a platoon/backup catcher? Seems to be that depends on whether you think were going to be more of a "contender" in 2027 then we are this year. It seems more likely than not that we will be more of a contender next year when all of the currently injured pitching is assumedly available, particularly Lopez, but who knows. They could all get hurt again. I think the Twins thinking is that the team will be better next year with Lopez and the other injured pitchers back and they're prioritizing having experienced decent quality catching next year over the contribution they think Jenkins can bring for the rest of 2026. I might not make the same decision but I think it's defensible.

I think if they believed so much in Alex Jackson they weren't going to jump at the chance to sign Caratini. I sincerely hope the Twins aren't burning a roster spot because they're afraid of losing a AAAA catcher. 

How is this even a question? Prioritize getting your top prospect, who has enormous upside, actual experience, or continue to hand a valuable roster spot to a journeyman C? This team continues to be obsessed with washed and/or not good "vets," and it has worked out poorly for them. If you're a contending team, you don't want Alex Jackson playing 40% of the time. 

I don't think wasting a 26 man spot is in any way defensible.

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

Well he was traded and two other teams gave up on him until the A's gave him consistent playing time where he finally made some headway. That's not just the Twins.

If you look back his defense in left was not good with the Twins.  How do you feel about Matt Wallner who had a WRC+ of 141 and 154 a few years back?  Lot's of people here feel he is not a good defender and too strikeout prone.  Pretty much Rooker like.  Do you see them bringing Matt back soon?

I've been over the topic a few times and my feelings about how players are viewed after their initial team gives up on them.

It certainly feels like the Twins are done with Wallner, and Matt has talked about that in a Pioneer Press article recently. Also, Wallner has 1,107 plate appearances at the MLB level including 135 with putrid results (and expected results) this year.

Rooker had 209 total plate appearances including only 30 plate appearances where he struggled in early April, 2021. After that small rough patch, his results were solid enough for 183 with excellent expected metrics and the Twins still closed the book.

Wallner's last results at MLB were terrible and expected to be terrible. He's ending his 28 season and has over 1,000 plate appearances of experience at MLB.

Rooker's last actual results in a Twins uniform were solid and the expected results were great. He was ending his age 26 season and only had 200 plate appearances at the MLB level.

I don't see them as particularly comparable except the concern the Twins might be overlooking something. It's the front office's job to evaluate talent and they're paid millions of dollars more than you or I are paid to do it.

[weitz41]

5 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Keaschall's home is 2nd base and I think that will become clear this offseason.  

Jenkins - Buxton - Rodriguez  outfield

Lee - Culpepper - Keaschall-  Lewis    Infield

Caratini - Jackson    Catchers

Clemens, Martin, Kreidler   as bench players.   That is a very strong bench,  defense running ability hitting ability.   

I'm not a big fan of Keaschall at 2nd base. I'd also prefer Clemens in a utility role as well. I'm wondering if Buxton as a 50/50 DH may save on the hip issue that's popped up the last few seasons. A few spots for upgrades and trades to make it a little better 26-man roster.

As for the article. I'd say the Twins need to bite the bullet and send Jackson down. I hope he clears but there will be other catchers available during the offseason if he doesn't. Maybe even him...Then give Emma his spot on the active roster and Jenkins Sept 1st when the rosters expand.