Are 30% Playoff Odds Enough for Twins to Buy at MLB Trade Deadline?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The countdown to the trade deadline is officially on. With just six days remaining until the August 3 deadline, the Minnesota Twins are rapidly approaching the moment where they have to choose a direction. Are they buyers? Are they sellers? Or do they try to thread the needle somewhere in between?

There is always a third path available. The Twins could trade from areas of depth to address areas of weakness, without fully committing to either side. They could move one of their left-handed hitters to acquire bullpen help or make another baseball trade that reallocates resources, rather than signaling a clear buy or sell. Those types of deals happen every deadline. But at its core, this deadline still comes down to one simple question: do the Twins believe enough in this team to invest in it? That is a much tougher question.

After taking a series from the Athletics over the weekend, the Twins now sit at 53-54, with a 32.9% chance of reaching the postseason, according to FanGraphs. They trail the first-place White Sox by 3.0 games in the American League Central, while sitting just one game behind the final Wild Card spot. The challenge is that they aren't chasing just one team. Four other clubs are also within 3.5 games of that final playoff berth, making one of the tightest postseason races in baseball even more crowded.

There are only six games remaining before the deadline. Unless the Twins catch fire and go 5-1 or collapse with a 1-5 stretch, they're likely heading into August 3 with playoff odds hovering right around 30%. That leaves the front office with one difficult decision: is a 30% chance at October baseball worth investing in?

Looking strictly at the math, the answer probably isn't yes. After all, flipping those odds around tells an even bigger story. If the Twins have roughly a 30% chance of making the playoffs, they also have about a 70% chance of missing them. Asking the organization to trade away future assets for bullpen help or another rental player in hopes of beating those odds feels difficult to justify. But baseball decisions aren't made in a vacuum.

It's impossible to separate this deadline from everything this organization and its fans have experienced over the past three years. The 2023 season represented the highest point of Twins baseball for an entire generation. Minnesota finally snapped its 18-game postseason losing streak, won its first playoff series in 21 years and looked like it was just scratching the surface on what's possible. Since then, almost everything that could go wrong has done so.

The Twins slashed payroll; collapsed down the stretch in 2024 after carrying roughly a 95% chance of making the playoffs in September; conducted a trade-deadline fire sale; and the Pohlad family took the club off the market after months of uncertainty. Now, they're trying to avoid missing the postseason for a third consecutive year. It's been an exhausting stretch for a fanbase that finally believed brighter days were ahead.

That's what makes this year's deadline so fascinating. Nobody expected much from the 2026 Twins entering the season, but here they are, entering the final week before the deadline with meaningful baseball still left to play. The numbers may say selling is the safest long-term decision, but is it the right decision for the franchise? Certainly not.

Target Field is in the midst of its lowest-attended season ever, and another sell-off would almost guarantee another two months of meaningless baseball. Fans would spend August and September watching unfamiliar faces play in uncompetitive games, instead of watching a club trying to chase down a playoff spot.

Buying, on the other hand, would send a completely different message. It would tell the clubhouse that the front office believes this team has earned the chance to compete. It would tell fans that ownership is finally willing to invest in a team that has exceeded expectations instead of immediately looking toward the future and instill hope into a team and fanbase that desperately needs it

Maybe the Twins buy and still miss the playoffs. Maybe another contender catches fire the way Boston did with its 15-game winning streak and boxes Minnesota out of a Wild Card spot. That's entirely possible, and it may ultimately be the most likely outcome.

But even then, the Twins would have spent the final two months of the season playing meaningful baseball. Fans would have had a reason to come to the ballpark. The front office would have shown belief in a clubhouse that has fought its way into contention, despite modest expectations. Tom Pohlad would have put his money where his mouth is by investing in a team that gave him every reason to do so. And the team could always get lucky in this winter's MLB Draft Lottery, too.

These playoff odds create one of the toughest decisions a front office can face. They're too high to justify an obvious sell-off, but too low to comfortably sacrifice future assets. It's the definition of baseball's gray area. Should they trust the math? Or should they recognize where this franchise and its fanbase are today and decide that, after everything that's happened over the last three years, hope is worth betting on?

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What do you think the Twins should do at the trade deadline? Should they buy, sell, or try to walk the line somewhere in the middle? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Craig Arko]

I would probably adopt what the math world calls ‘a mixed strategy.’ That is, buy a little to improve right now, and sell where appropriate to improve for the future.

Of course, what constitutes ‘a little’ and ‘where appropriate’ is above my pay grade.

[amjgt]

Fangraphs currently has us at 21% to win our division. 

If the playoffs started today, the White Sox would have a first round bye. 

I think the 30% odds you talk about, under normal circumstances, might not push the FO into being buyers, but for not only the franchise-level reasons you mention, but the unique circumstances of the 2026 American League, it's worth investing a little more than normal on a 30% playoff odds team.

I mean Fangraphs has us at 10% odds to get a first round bye.

[farmerguychris]

Can we find a team to send Jeffers to in exchange for some quality relief pitching that can help the rest of this season AND a young guy in high A ball?  Tightrope to walk.

[DataNerd]

I'm a light buyer, getting a couple of bullpen arms and a rental starter that's mainly for insurance (we are 2 SP injuries away from having to start either Gallagher/Klein, and Prielipp might not be able to continue to start in Sep).  Probably sending out Jeffers since that will help get some solid BP arms without spending much prospect capital and since the league is short on C and RHH he probably requires an overpay on the trade charts.

[c24]

Just this year they should change the deadline to mid-August so we can play our series's's against the Brewers, Braves, and Phillies before we decide to buy or sell

[DataNerd]

1 minute ago, farmerguychris said:

Can we find a team to send Jeffers to in exchange for some quality relief pitching that can help the rest of this season AND a young guy in high A ball?  Tightrope to walk.

Probably requires a 3 team trade, since NYY/TBR are pure buyers.  Should be plenty of teams that would love to trade a reliever for prospects as the 3rd team.

[stringer bell]

I think the Twins have a better shot at winningbthe division than being a wild card. While they’ve consistently trailed both Chicago and Cleveland, the margin is less than a series sweep right now. These are two franchises that are unlikely to spend much to improve at the deadline and frankly are the most suspect of teams nominally contending for postseason. 
 

I think Jeffers is going to be traded and i would hope the Twins can acquire a major league arm in any package for him. Pick up another pitcher and perhaps a hitter and go from there. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

7 minutes ago, c24 said:

Just this year they should change the deadline to mid-August so we can play our series's's against the Brewers, Braves, and Phillies before we decide to buy or sell

Oh gosh. I dread those games.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Yes

[amjgt]

3 minutes ago, DataNerd said:

Probably requires a 3 team trade, since NYY/TBR are pure buyers.  Should be plenty of teams that would love to trade a reliever for prospects as the 3rd team.

I'm generally against trading Jeffers, but the way it would probably work is more of a de facto 3 team trade. We trade Jeffers for prospects. We also trade prospects for Relief help. It's unlikely that it would be the same prospects, but it could be that the two groups of prospects changing hands have roughly the same value.

True 3 team trades are just very rare.

[DJL44]

Vikings training camp starts August 1. Lynx basketball playoff games start September 27. Everyone will be too busy talking football and basketball to pay attention to what the Twins are doing.

[amjgt]

2 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think the Twins have a better shot at winningbthe division than being a wild card. While they’ve consistently trailed both Chicago and Cleveland, the margin is less than a series sweep right now. These are two franchises that are unlikely to spend much to improve at the deadline and frankly are the most suspect of teams nominally contending for postseason. 

I disagree with you that the White Sox are unlikely to spend much to improve at the deadline. I expect them to be the most active AL team.

[thelanges5]

Push in some chips, but don’t sell the farm. Zoll’s first big challenge.

[chpettit19]

I'd wait until I see Joe Ryan throw tomorrow before I made any decisions. He already struggles pretty significantly in the second half of seasons so if he's looking like he's struggling right now it'd change my view on any percentage any system kicks out not accounting for that.

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I disagree with you that the White Sox are unlikely to spend much to improve at the deadline. I expect them to be the most active AL team.

Interesting. What leads you to believe that?

[tony&rodney]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Vikings training camp starts August 1. Lynx basketball playoff games start September 27. Everyone will be too busy talking football and basketball to pay attention to what the Twins are doing.

Who are Vikings?

I would watch Cedar Rapids before watching a football game.

[TJSweens]

Are 30% Playoff Odds Enough for Twins to Buy at MLB Trade Deadline?

 

NO!

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd wait until I see Joe Ryan throw tomorrow before I made any decisions. He already struggles pretty significantly in the second half of seasons so if he's looking like he's struggling right now it'd change my view on any percentage any system kicks out not accounting for that.

My take is irrational. The Twins will need a couple of AAA guys to step into the lineup and play reasonably well. I'm also still not giving up on Prielipp and Rojas, despite common thoughts that they will be shut down due to innings limits. Plenty has gone wrong with the Twins in recent seasons and it is time for some lucky bounces. I would make trades though and the goal would be simply to add talent. If moving some prospects is necessary to make the pieces fit, I'm ok with that. Talent plays. The differences between teams is pretty slim at this time, so just about anything can happen. As always the pitching will lead the way. Hopefully that way is up.

[amjgt]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Interesting. What leads you to believe that?

My gut. Just reading the tea leaves of Ownership shifts.

They've been a sleeping giant over the last handful of years. As of 5 months ago, that sleeping giant still felt a couple years away, but I expect them to look at this division and the AL in 2026 and say... why not now?

They have the financial resources to make bolder and riskier decisions than the Twins. And I expect to see a few this week.

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

My take is irrational. The Twins will need a couple of AAA guys to step into the lineup and play reasonably well. I'm also still not giving up on Prielipp and Rojas, despite common thoughts that they will be shut down due to innings limits. Plenty has gone wrong with the Twins in recent seasons and it is time for some lucky bounces. I would make trades though and the goal would be simply to add talent. If moving some prospects is necessary to make the pieces fit, I'm ok with that. Talent plays. The differences between teams is pretty slim at this time, so just about anything can happen. As always the pitching will lead the way. Hopefully that way is up.

Prielipp is at 91 innings pitched this year. I'd be absolutely floored if they let him go more than about 120ish to chase a playoff birth with a below .500 team. I don't know what the right answer is on inning jumps season to season, but teams tend to be pretty conservative with it. If their data says you can just let him rip for the whole season, do it. But if they have good reason to believe him throwing more than 120 (or whatever the number is) innings this year seriously increases the odds he gets injured late this year or next year, I really, really, really hope they don't push him for a team that can't even get above .500 by late July. 

And to add that to my earlier comment about Ryan, I REALLY don't want them to risk Prielipp's arm in a season where your playoff rotation would be Bradley, a cooked Ryan, and Ober throwing 88 MPH backed up by an over extended Prielipp and unpredictable Rojas and Matthews. I get people want playoff baseball, but I'm not a fan of adding so much risk to future years for this team.

If Ryan doesn't look, and perform, like his typical first half self tomorrow, I don't want them doing anything beyond trading a DeBarge type for a reliever. Unless they find a way to bring in Hancock. If they can get him, it'd change my view on other moves.

[bjorks]

While I've flipped and flopped over moving Jeffers, it may not be such a slam dunk. Nobody is signing anything between end of WS and CBA expiring and if there ends up being a floor and the Twins are in a position where they have to spend $60-$75MM I'd 100% see if he'd sign a 3/$39 (I don't think he should be a $15/yr catcher) and buy Lackey time while giving Jeffers another run at FA. 

With that being said, it feels like we should continue building over the next few years for a run around '29-'30, but we've solved a hard position to solve (catcher) and it's the same with Ryan/Lopez. We have 2 frontline starters with Taj as a #3, It's not always about projection, we have to play the games. We can fill in some pieces moving (or not) guys like Larnach, Bell, Wallner, Ober, Rogers, etc. and non Top 10-12 prospects. 

[jaimedude]

If were gonna have any chance tge Twins need to add a starter. With Rojas and Prielepp pushing innings, we need another starter. 

[rdehring]

To answer your question whether the Twins should be buyers or sellers, my answer is YES.  As many above have stated, this is the year to sell a few players who are a must sell.  That starts and maybe ends with Jeffers.  But when selling, they must get back a pitcher who will help this year.  And that pitcher must not be a rental.  Trade a couple mid-to-upper-mid prospects for another reliever and rental starter and the Twins should be better on August 4 than they are today.

I also continue to hope the Twins can package Wallner and a pitcher, perhaps someone like Raya, to the Rockies for a mid-level reliever.  Could you imagine Wallner hitting in that thin air?   

[1985Fan]

This deadline is where Zoll will earn his keep, or make it clear we need a new GM. IMO he should add an arm or two without mortgaging the future. If that means trading an asset or two that is internally replaceable (a current position of strength), then that is a move he should make. Jeffers is everyone’s choice to trade since Caratini and Jackson can fill in. That is debatable. I’d rather see them try to sign him for 3 years until the prospects are ready to step in. I’d rather see them deal prospects from the highly touted farm system. Supposedly have an abundance of LH corner outfielders, so that is a position of strength as well. There should be enough history on older prospects that FO can separate the keepers from the suspects. 
Every trade doesn’t have to be a blockbuster headline trade to help out this year. Can make trade(s) for relief arms that won’t break the bank or rental SP that can eat innings, not necessarily top of the rotation types. 
I know that’s easier said than done. I think it’s important to show this team and the fans that they’re capable of at least trying to win.

[chpettit19]

Just now, amjgt said:

My gut. Just reading the tea leaves of Ownership shifts.

They've been a sleeping giant over the last handful of years. As of 5 months ago, that sleeping giant still felt a couple years away, but I expect them to look at this division and the AL in 2026 and say... why not now?

They have the financial resources to make bolder and riskier decisions than the Twins. And I expect to see a few this week.

Fair enough. Don't think that's unreasonable. My differing opinion would come down to them relying a lot on young guys and, as we know from the Lewis, Wallner, Julien season, those guys can fluctuate after initial success so selling your other young guys too early can derail a rebuild back to contention really quickly.

I don't have a strong feeling on which way they'll go, was just curious what was making you think they will go big(ish). I wouldn't be surprised either way.

[Dman]

Every time I doubt this team they seem to come back.  Every time I start to believe they go on a losing streak.  Personally I haven't seen enough to buy.  Maybe enough to stand pat, but that's about it for me.

I wouldn't be opposed to selling if the deals look good.  However, with Ryan's arm in doubt they might not get the kind of deal they need to make it worth it.  I'm fine with a comp pick for him if we have a couple of chances for the playoffs, but if I were running things I'd be getting what I can in future assets and be playing for 2028.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, bjorks said:

While I've flipped and flopped over moving Jeffers, it may not be such a slam dunk. Nobody is signing anything between end of WS and CBA expiring and if there ends up being a floor and the Twins are in a position where they have to spend $60-$75MM I'd 100% see if he'd sign a 3/$39 (I don't think he should be a $15/yr catcher) and buy Lackey time while giving Jeffers another run at FA. 

With that being said, it feels like we should continue building over the next few years for a run around '29-'30, but we've solved a hard position to solve (catcher) and it's the same with Ryan/Lopez. We have 2 frontline starters with Taj as a #3, It's not always about projection, we have to play the games. We can fill in some pieces moving (or not) guys like Larnach, Bell, Wallner, Ober, Rogers, etc. and non Top 10-12 prospects. 

Last time the CBA expired, teams went pretty aggressive in signing guys. It was actually a very large complaint around these parts as the Twins didn't do anything and seemed to have been caught flat footed. I really hope the Twins don't go into this offseason with the same mindset. Guessing at what the new CBA will bring is a really risky to do business.

[Dman]

51 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I disagree with you that the White Sox are unlikely to spend much to improve at the deadline. I expect them to be the most active AL team.

Their GM had already stated they weren't going to move any top prospects for this years run.  I'd look for them to do slightly more than the Twins or Cleveland, but I think they are more likely to have an active offseason than deadline.  Prices are high at the deadline and they are at the beginning of their rebuild.

That being said they are in first place and will likely do something to stay there. Maybe a lower end starter and bullpen help like the Twins I'd think.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, c24 said:

Just this year they should change the deadline to mid-August so we can play our series's's against the Brewers, Braves, and Phillies before we decide to buy or sell

Trade deadline would be so much better if moved to the middle to end of August