Are 30% Playoff Odds Enough for Twins to Buy at MLB Trade Deadline?

[amjgt]

8 minutes ago, bjorks said:

While I've flipped and flopped over moving Jeffers, it may not be such a slam dunk. Nobody is signing anything between end of WS and CBA expiring and if there ends up being a floor and the Twins are in a position where they have to spend $60-$75MM I'd 100% see if he'd sign a 3/$39 (I don't think he should be a $15/yr catcher) and buy Lackey time while giving Jeffers another run at FA. 

With that being said, it feels like we should continue building over the next few years for a run around '29-'30, but we've solved a hard position to solve (catcher) and it's the same with Ryan/Lopez. We have 2 frontline starters with Taj as a #3, It's not always about projection, we have to play the games. We can fill in some pieces moving (or not) guys like Larnach, Bell, Wallner, Ober, Rogers, etc. and non Top 10-12 prospects. 

I'm not going to claim to have any idea what players/agents are going to do this go around, but the last time there was an expiring CBA there were a TON of free agents that signed before the CBA expired. 

[saviking]

Play-Off odds.. He'll, their odds to win the Division might be better. 

Just dawned on me that the best way to get fans in the seats next year is to be the reigning divisional champion.

Maybe they should go all out at the trade deadline. 

[amjgt]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fair enough. Don't think that's unreasonable. My differing opinion would come down to them relying a lot on young guys and, as we know from the Lewis, Wallner, Julien season, those guys can fluctuate after initial success so selling your other young guys too early can derail a rebuild back to contention really quickly.

I don't have a strong feeling on which way they'll go, was just curious what was making you think they will go big(ish). I wouldn't be surprised either way.

I think the mistake Twins fans might be making is believing that the White Sox will act in the same way that we think the Twins would act in a similar situation. 

[TheLeviathan]

I am not in the camp that believes an 83-85 win, squeak into the playoffs in a bad division, type of run makes any meaningful distinction with the fanbase.  The swings and momentum are going to need to be far more significant for that to happen.  I don't see this team as the one to generate that momentum.  

30% odds really shouldn't be enough to make poor asset management choices.  I don't know what the Twins might be able to acquire for Bell, Jeffers, etc. but I'm more than willing to explore it with those odds.

[USAFChief]

I think there's an opportunity here to repair some of the damage ownership has inflicted on the fan base.

I suggest they seize it. Get some real help. If it fails, it fails. Sitting out the deadline, or worse, only dealing away assets, will be yet another PR blow. This franchise can't afford that.

 

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I think the mistake Twins fans might be making is believing that the White Sox will act in the same way that we think the Twins would act in a similar situation. 

Entirely possible. I'm not going off just the Twins, but teams in their position in general. And not just teams in baseball. Teams across all sports are more often than not at least slightly conservative when they start performing a year or 2 ahead of schedule. Not every team, but most. Those teams are actually in pretty tough spots as they have to be really good at judging what's real and what's not with their young, over-performing players.

The Sox also don't have a great farm system. They don't have the firepower there to really make too big of splash moves. Your point about their financial power is really their biggest weapon right now. Can they send lower end prospects to get back underwater contracts? I assume Roch, Smith, and Bonemer are off limits. Not a lot of other guys teams are clamoring for there. Their sales pitch is really just "we'll save you some money."

[MMBoys93]

No, I don't think it is.

5 teams in baseball history have won the WS with less than 90 wins.

All 5 were somewhere in the 83-88 win range.

1987 Twins
2000 Yankees
2006 Cardinals
2014 Giants
2021 Braves

One of those 5 had a bottom half of the league payroll- any guesses?

1 of the last 30 World Series winners had a bottom half payroll. 2003 Marlins.

This is not a top 5 Twins team of my time, and likely not even top 10. They'll finish with less than 90 wins and a bottom half payroll.

Making a few additions because Jim Pohlad wants to score some brownie points is not the right way to run an organization that won't spend money. 

Trade Jeffers, Trade Larnach, add a reliever if you want and get ready for next season.

They're not a contender, and I question anyone who thinks that having a chance to make the playoffs makes them one. Even if the hope is that all the stars align in a way that they haven't in the last 30 years, the payroll situation means the Twins can't risk it. Because for bottom payroll teams, if you let the farm system dwindle, then get ready to see 4-5, 90-100 loss seasons in a row in the near future.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think there's an opportunity here to repair some of the damage ownership has inflicted on the fan base.

I suggest they seize it. Get some real help. If it fails, it fails. Sitting out the deadline, or worse, only dealing away assets, will be yet another PR blow. This franchise can't afford that.

 

I think this is a really interesting piece to the puzzle. How big the moves are and how much it fails is a risk to their relationship with the fans. What are you selling to get "real help?" If Joe Ryan isn't first half Joe Ryan, what do you need to sell to get a guy who can actually front this rotation? What do you have to sell to get real pen arms? 

If you sell and still miss the playoffs, how much did it really help? If you go on to miss the playoffs in a similar season next year, does the PR bump hold? If you trade Joe next year or lose him for nothing after the season, are fans going to remember that you added at the 2026 deadline and not scream "cheap Pohlads" then while tanking the relationship again?

I'm of the opinion that to truly repair the damage you need to build a team that actually competes. Not just for .500, but to be a consistently above .500 and show you're willing to invest/buy/whatever then. I think there's a real argument for not selling big in any way this deadline, but I'm not sold that buying in any meaningful way gives any sustainable boost to the PR situation. You can't repair the damage done in 1 season. They've done themselves no favors and I hope they don't look for quick fixes to decades worth of failures.

[HerbieFan]

In a word....YES

[Mike Sixel]

31 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Entirely possible. I'm not going off just the Twins, but teams in their position in general. And not just teams in baseball. Teams across all sports are more often than not at least slightly conservative when they start performing a year or 2 ahead of schedule. Not every team, but most. Those teams are actually in pretty tough spots as they have to be really good at judging what's real and what's not with their young, over-performing players.

The Sox also don't have a great farm system. They don't have the firepower there to really make too big of splash moves. Your point about their financial power is really their biggest weapon right now. Can they send lower end prospects to get back underwater contracts? I assume Roch, Smith, and Bonemer are off limits. Not a lot of other guys teams are clamoring for there. Their sales pitch is really just "we'll save you some money."

If the farm isn't good, they should strike while the iron is hot, because it's not getting better soon. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

If the farm isn't good, they should strike while the iron is hot, because it's not getting better soon. 

Totally fair. If they can buy, they should. I just question what all they can buy. The other poster suggested they'd be the most active team in the AL. They may want to be, but if nobody wants what you're selling it's hard to buy. Their biggest weapon is taking on money. They should if they can. But that limits your options on how big you can actually go.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Totally fair. If they can buy, they should. I just question what all they can buy. The other poster suggested they'd be the most active team in the AL. They may want to be, but if nobody wants what you're selling it's hard to buy. Their biggest weapon is taking on money. They should if they can. But that limits your options on how big you can actually go.

Ya, they're in a tough spot for sure. 

[MMBoys93]

47 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I think there's an opportunity here to repair some of the damage ownership has inflicted on the fan base.

I suggest they seize it. Get some real help. If it fails, it fails. Sitting out the deadline, or worse, only dealing away assets, will be yet another PR blow. This franchise can't afford that.

 

Trading away prospects for expiring contracts that have had most of their salary already paid is not something that should repair the fans relationship.

Trading away prospects for rentals and then spending 40 million more if there's a season next year...Now you're talking.

But there's been no talk about extending Jeffers or Ryan in the past year, and the payroll hasn't gone up in years. There has been nothing that tells us that Jim intends to do anything differently. He's a corporate rah rah nepo baby trying to score brownie points here and as far as I see it, he's threatening a potential future scenario where the Twins could be a small market club that wins games consistently. The gold standards of small budget teams include Tampa, Milwaukee and Cleveland and we don't do anything better than any of those teams.

Letting Jeffers and Larnach walk, holding Ryan even longer and then coming into 2027 with ideas of the same payroll (or worse) would be a slap to the face of diehard fans of this team.  I still shudder at the memory of 2011-2014. Aging players, a bottom 10 farm system, bottom 10 payroll. 

This is the situation that the franchise can't afford.

[tony&rodney]

There are players to hold and some that can be moved. I'm keeping Jenkin, K. Culpepper, Houston, Rojas, Quick, Diaw, Ellwanger Winokur, and Mercedes from the current MLB prospect list. That does not include Lackey, who stays. I'm also keeping Abel, Bradley, Gomez, Lopez, Morris, Prielipp, Rojas, and Buxton from the 40 person roster. There are many others Iwill only trade if the offer is right. Some will not be traded because the Twins are committed to them. 

Transactions are possible but I'm not expecting much. Of course last trade deadline was a doozy so one never knows. The one surprise would be if the Twins still rostered three catchers on August 4.

Big series begins tonight with the Kansas City Royals.

Go Twins.

[Riverbrian]

Our front office decided to go for it and after 107 games of going for it. They find themselves 1 mere game out of the wild card and 3 mere games behind in the AL Central. I'm sorry to all that feel differently but they need to be buyers. 

If they decide to NOW NOT go for it and not THEN! What a waste of service time and therefore trade value when they were actually somewhat successful and against the odds that most of us put on them.   

If they change course now... We got bigger front office problems than the scope of this specific discussion. 

At the start of the season I would have bet that our starting pitching would be OK and our offense was going to struggle. 

It has been the reverse. 

 

 

 

 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

To answer your question whether the Twins should be buyers or sellers, my answer is YES.  As many above have stated, this is the year to sell a few players who are a must sell.  That starts and maybe ends with Jeffers.  But when selling, they must get back a pitcher who will help this year.  And that pitcher must not be a rental.  Trade a couple mid-to-upper-mid prospects for another reliever and rental starter and the Twins should be better on August 4 than they are today.

I also continue to hope the Twins can package Wallner and a pitcher, perhaps someone like Raya, to the Rockies for a mid-level reliever.  Could you imagine Wallner hitting in that thin air?   

1st I have to imagine Wallner making contact against MLB pitching.

[HarmonK03]

2 hours ago, jaimedude said:

If were gonna have any chance tge Twins need to add a starter. With Rojas and Prielepp pushing innings, we need another starter. 

Rojas isn't even one of our starters now.

[mikelink45]

Make good trades, tweak this year, but make the gain one that sustains us in the future.  Figure out were we have excess talent - OF/1B/DH and use that for a gain (I include minor leagues in these position evaluations).  Get BP help, but don't over due it.  BP is too volatile to over spend for a team that might be in the playoffs but will go no where. 

 

[HarmonK03]

What is the long term vision for this team.  If you want to fill in around the edges to help this year's team, primarily with relief pitchers, fine.  But to make a real impact on this year, you probably need two relievers, a starting pitcher and a true middle of the order bat to replace Bell.  What do you have to give up to get all that, I am guessing more than most would want.

Start with figuring out where you want players to play and let them play there.  Bring up Culpepper and Jenkins, they can help this year and it helps for the future. At some point, you have to get production from your top prospects, you can't miss on them all. Figure out where the holes are and fill with quality players next year.  There should be no more relying on AAAA and past their prime types.

Clear some outfielders from the 40 man, Wallner needs to be one to go, regardless of what you get for him.  The Twins have lost faith in him, give the AB's to someone with a potential future with the organization.

My biggest concern is, this is asking a lot of someone with no experience in the top chair and is Zoll up to it.

[LastOnePicked]

This '26 team has a habit of proving me wrong, so I'll just say no. They're not gonna wion anything.

I do hope I'm wrong. A playoff berth would be a nice way to turn the page. But I still fear that even if they make a tepid little run at the playoffs, their longer term chances would have been far better served by trading their assets, taking their lumps and upgrading their prospects.