Aaron Sabato is Thriving at Triple-A. Do the Twins Care?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Aaron Sabato has spent most of his professional career trying to convince the Twins that he could become more than organizational depth. Now, he's finally doing everything they could reasonably ask from a first baseman. The problem? It may have come too late.

Lightly recruited out of Connecticut, Sabato transformed himself into one of college baseball's premier power hitters at the University of North Carolina. He announced his arrival by setting the Tar Heels' freshman home run record with 18 long balls in 2019. Shoulder surgery prevented him from playing summer ball, but he returned in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and launched seven home runs in just 19 games. That performance was enough for the Twins to select him with the 27th overall pick in the first round of that shortened draft. Minnesota didn't select Sabato because of his defensive versatility or athleticism. They drafted him because they believed the bat would carry him to the big leagues. That has always been the challenge.

First base is the most unforgiving position in baseball when it comes to prospect evaluation. Teams can tolerate a light-hitting shortstop because of premium defense. Catchers can stick around thanks to their work behind the plate. Center fielders can survive offensive slumps if they save runs defensively. A first baseman doesn't have that luxury. If the bat isn't playing, there's nowhere else to hide.

For much of Sabato's professional career, the offensive production simply wasn't good enough. He spent parts of four seasons with Double-A Wichita, posting a .749 OPS while struggling to stay above the league-average line. It felt like he might need a permanent mailing address in Kansas.

Everything finally clicked in 2025. Before earning a promotion, Sabato dominated Double-A pitching by slashing .305/.399/.574 with 14 home runs in just 39 games. His .973 OPS translated to a 165 wRC+, forcing the Twins to see whether the breakout was real.

The results after his promotion were considerably more modest. The International League has earned a reputation as one of the most hitter-friendly environments in affiliated baseball, yet Sabato hit just .245/.288/.453 with a .741 OPS over his final 65 games. Fourteen home runs showed the power remained intact, but with an 86 wRC+, he wasn't exactly knocking down the door to Target Field.

Entering his age-27 season, it became easy to view him as little more than experienced organizational depth. Instead, he's responded with perhaps the best sustained stretch of his professional career. After opening the season in a part-time role, injuries throughout the St. Paul roster created regular opportunities. Sabato has taken full advantage.

Through 57 games, he's hitting .284/.346/.581 with 14 home runs, 20 doubles, and a .927 OPS. His 129 wRC+ ranks comfortably above average, and there are encouraging signs beneath the surface that suggest this isn't solely a product of favorable hitting environments.

Perhaps most importantly, he's making more contact. Sabato has trimmed his strikeout rate from 28.7% last season to 25.0% this year. That's still higher than ideal, but every percentage point matters for a player whose value depends almost entirely on his offensive production. At the same time, his .298 isolated power is the highest mark he's posted since the lower levels of the minors, showing that the power hasn't disappeared despite the improved contact.

Interestingly, his hard-hit rate has actually declined by 4.2 percentage points compared to last season. Rather than hitting the ball harder, Sabato appears to be hitting it better. His average launch angle has increased by 2.5 degrees, helping him elevate the baseball more consistently and maximize the raw power that made him a first-round selection in the first place.

Minnesota has spent years cycling through veteran first base solutions. Carlos Santana, Ty France, Josh Bell, and Kody Clemens have all received opportunities while the organization searched for consistent production at the position. The Twins have generally preferred experienced options because Sabato never forced the issue with his minor-league performance.

Now, he finally is. The timing could prove interesting. If Minnesota falls further out of contention, veterans like Bell or Clemens could become trade candidates before the deadline. Even Royce Lewis could draw interest if the front office decides to reshape the roster. A combination of those moves would create an obvious opening for Sabato to receive his first extended major league opportunity.

Under normal circumstances, a 27-year-old first baseman tearing up Triple-A might earn that chance. But baseball doesn't always reward timing as much as talent.

Sabato has spent six years trying to prove he belongs in the Twins' long-term plans. He's playing some of the best baseball of his career, and the numbers suggest this version is more complete than the one that reached Triple-A a year ago. Whether that's enough to change Minnesota's opinion may be the biggest question of all.

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Will Sabato get a chance with the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Brandon]

The Twins spent first round draft pick money to get him, I'm sure he will get a call up at some point.

[Peter Gravett]

So the bat is coming around, which is great ... how is he on fielding? Watching Royce's athleticism vs. Josh Bell at first, that's a pertinent question.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Peter Gravett said:

So the bat is coming around, which is great ... how is he on fielding? Watching Royce's athleticism vs. Josh Bell at first, that's a pertinent question.

Sabato is below MLB average defensively at first base, but better than Josh Bell. The Twins appear satisfied to play Royce Lewis at first base every day. Sabato doesn’t really do anything better than Royce Lewis.

If they trade Bell, they could give Sabato an audition at DH, but they will probably give Wallner another chance instead.

[Dman]

I don't know.  Has he shown he is ready?  In April his His OPS was .760 and in June just over .800 which is OK but not elite.  He has really only had one elite month in May with a whopping 1.100 OPS.

He isn't all that athletic, though he looks to be in the best shape I have seen him in. Personally I'd want to see more before adding him since he is a bat first player.

I'd guess that if he gets the bat back into the .900 OPS range in July he might get a shot if the Twins sell at the deadline.  If not I don't see a reason for them to add him. 

[bean5302]

Aaron Sabato is good-ish at AAA. He's got a wRC+ of 127. I'll admit, the pitching in the International League is so abominable that it's hard for a hitter to show whether they're ready because no matter who is out there, it's tough to OPS like 1.000+, but Sabato's AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA and wRC+ project pretty poorly. Sabato is probably just having a nice career AAA year. Maybe he'll get a Sept call up to get a couple PA in the big show as a pat on the back before he chooses a different career path.

[D.C Twins]

Thanks for the deeper dive!  

I have no idea if he can make an impact in the MLB, but I think he deserves a ton of credit for his grit and perseverance.

I (and a lot of others I think) had completely written him off. 

Kudos to you Sabato, regardless of if you make it to the MLB or not. 

[Jacksson]

His window of opportunity to be an asset for the Twins at the major league level has probably closed; depending on what happens in the Great 2026 Deadline Sell Off.

[High heat]

The lineup has been remarkably healthy, if the trade deadline comes and some injuries occur you could see him get an opportunity.  
 

If Lee or Lewis miss time and Bell and Larnach get moved I could see him get time.  Still would have Kodt Clemens to cover 1B
 

He is still behind Gabby Gonzalez and possibly even Fedko as 1B options so there is a lot ahead of him to get an opportunity.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Sabato is below MLB average defensively at first base, but better than Josh Bell. The Twins appear satisfied to play Royce Lewis at first base every day. Sabato doesn’t really do anything better than Royce Lewis.

If they trade Bell, they could give Sabato an audition at DH, but they will probably give Wallner another chance instead.

It is notable that Lewis is one day (!) younger than Sabato.

[Twins GFP]

Considering he isn't on the 40-man, it is highly doubtful he will get an opportunity without a couple of injuries.

Odds are more likely he will become a free agent after this year and go somewhere he will have a better opportunity

[Danchat]

The Twins seem to be taking the AAA hitting stats with a boulder of salt. I get why, but at some point how does a player force their way up? Would Sabato get any more chance than Fedko, who is barely playing? Methinks Sabato is gonna strike out a lot, and unlike a lot of other power-first prospects we've seen in this organization, he is not going to get much runway to adjust to major league pitching. 

[DataNerd]

He was older, worse offensively at St Paul, and much less valuable defensively than Fedko, and he is not looking great.  Unless Bell gets hurt, I'm not sure he gets time because Mendez/Gonzalez/Roden/Wallner all have much more promise.  He's 27, the start of his peak, and he's an above-average but not elite bat at AAA with no defensive value.

[Cory Engelhardt]

First, Dan Hayes quoted twins officials saying that they weren't trading Buxton OR Royce at the deadline. They know where fans stand on their perception, and moving off one or both of them just isn't happening.

Second, I'm glad that he has made strides, but that strikeout rate is still too high for my liking. And that's nothing to say about his defense.

Good for him for sticking it out. I think he will play really well for a Korean team in 2027, and maybe get a chance back in the states in 2028 or 2029 whenever the cba is fully figured out.

[twinstalker]

His problem is that he swings and misses far too often.  That's against AAA.  He wouldn't touch MLB pitches at all.  It would be more embarrassing to give him a "chance" than not.  He hits the ball hard, so he'd be fun to watch in BP

[DJL44]

Japan?

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Danchat said:

The Twins seem to be taking the AAA hitting stats with a boulder of salt. I get why, but at some point how does a player force their way up? Would Sabato get any more chance than Fedko, who is barely playing? Methinks Sabato is gonna strike out a lot, and unlike a lot of other power-first prospects we've seen in this organization, he is not going to get much runway to adjust to major league pitching. 

Fedko can cover CF or be a defensive replacement or pinch runner. Sabato can't do anything other than swing the bat.

Speaking of Fedko (this year's DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.) he's not doing anything to push for more plate appearances.

[Obsvr]

Couldn't care less about a 27 year old thriving in AAA.  If he was going to make it, he already would have.

[jkcarew]

I don’t think they do...and I’m not sure they’re wrong.

I don’t really think they consider Fedko or Sabato prospects, and fwiw, Fedko was hitting better than Sabato in St Paul. The difference is Fedko can run and field.

[jkcarew]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

First, Dan Hayes quoted twins officials saying that they weren't trading Buxton OR Royce at the deadline. They know where fans stand on their perception, and moving off one or both of them just isn't happening.

The perception is that they’re cheap. Trading Lewis doesn’t make them look cheap. Even trading Buxton really doesn’t.

The perception that they should worry more about is that they’re short-sighted and incompetent. If they think holding onto a player will put two more butts in a seat this year or next, they’ll stand pat no matter what it does…or should I say DOESN’T do…for building an actually competitive team at some point. They’ll obsess that average attendance will fall from 18k to 14k without Buxton (or whoever is perceived to be a favorite), but never ever make a tough decision or commitment that might lead to 30k in the future. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The perception is that they’re cheap. Trading Lewis doesn’t make them look cheap. Even trading Buxton really doesn’t.

The perception that they should worry more about is that they’re short-sighted and incompetent. If they think holding onto a player will put two more butts in a seat this year or next, they’ll stand pat no matter what it does…or should I say DOESN’T do…for building an actually competitive team at some point. They’ll obsess that average attendance will fall from 18k to 14k without Buxton (or whoever is perceived to be a favorite), but never ever make a tough decision or commitment that might lead to 30k in the future. 

Actually winning again will do this. But I'd argue selling the team to another ownership group is the best answer here. 

For the trade deadline here in 2026, I don't see them trading Buxton or Lewis. That would be the short view instead of the long one you mention in getting back to 30k seats sold per game.