Twins Ace Pablo López Facing "Strong Likelihood" of Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

[howeda7]

7 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

 

So, I don't know much about pitching injuries so I want to ask the question: Let's say the Twins did a proper tear down and traded away Pablo this winter. Would this have potentially been a red flag in a physical? 

His trade value would certainly have been impacted.

[howeda7]

36 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Another question related to my question above.  Would he have been pitching that third inning yesterday had he not been preparing for the WBC?  

Good question. Probably not. But doesn't it seem like it was inevitable and would have just happened a week from now instead?

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

Lucas Giolito anyone?

Obviously Pablo's injury sucks.  Do not sign any pitcher.  Play in house pitchers and find out if they are MLB caliber or not.  Same thing for position players.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Fans on this site represent the hardcore of the hardcore would rather watch rookies go 60-102 then veterans go 80-82. I get that.

80-82 is out of the playoffs. They don't hang 3rd place pennants at Target Field.

But that's a false equivalence. Trading Joe Ryan is the difference between 74-88 and 69-93. He's not worth 20 wins on his own. Are you a huge fan of 74-88? That's a team that is irrelevant from May to September.

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Well let's see how serious Tom Pohlads is about competing.  Let's go sign Giolito to a 1 year or 2 year deal

It's not a terrible idea. Adding Giolito gives them something else to trade away in July. Buy low, sell high.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Obviously Pablo's injury sucks.  Do not sign any pitcher.  Play in house pitchers and find out if they are MLB caliber or not.  Same thing for position players.

Which position players are huge question marks? Keaschall is the only one we don't know about. The rest are mostly proven commodities. Are they going to learn anything about James Outman, Kody Clemens or Tristan Gray?

[Dawgzilla]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

$22MM for nothing this year with a tight $110-115MM cap. Can't have it. Can't risk it. Now we've got to eat it. I can be glad for Lopez he could make it back in time to get himself a big payday on his next contract. If I were him, I'd be 100% in on UCL surgery asap to give me a chance. Best of luck to him on a fast recovery and great 2027... please no cancellation to the season.

I'll be rooting for the young guys having some breakout seasons.

Twins have insurance policies on players.

[Dawgzilla]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I swear, this franchise is cursed.

This really sucks. Big fan of Pablo Lopez, love watching him pitch.

 

Not cursed, just stupid and tight with money!

[USAFChief]

33 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Fans on this site represent the hardcore of the hardcore would rather watch rookies go 60-102 then veterans go 80-82. I get that.

 

I'd consider myself pretty hardcore...and I would rather watch 80-82 than 60-102.

For one thing, there's zero guarantee of any pot of gold at the end of that rookie rainbow. Just because you play a bunch of rookies doesnt mean there's a payoff down the line.

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

[TheLeviathan]

Teams that pretend to be contenders and hold on to players they shouldn't have things like this happen to them.

The list of assets we've let wither on the vine is stunning.

[bean5302]

8 minutes ago, Dawgzilla said:

Twins have insurance policies on players.

Player insurance premiums began skyrocketing due to risk so those kinds of policies became less and less common. Insurer's are no longer willing to take it on. See what's happening with the WBC as an example. 

[Aggies7]

Screw it. I’m gonna start getting my arm in shape. I can be ready by April. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd consider myself pretty hardcore...and I would rather watch 80-82 than 60-102.

For one thing, there's zero guarantee of any pot of gold at that rookie rainbow. Just because you play a bunch of rookies doesnt mean there's a payoff down the line.

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

Exactly this.  Watching a baseball game between a good team and a .500 team is very interesting and mostly competitive.  Having a roughly 50% chance at victory keeps me interested in the team.  Watching a game between a 90 win team and a 60 win team isn’t usually very interesting and likely mostly uncompetitive.  It absolutely makes me want to tune out on the Twins.  

The idea that “if we trade everyone and just bottom out now, we’ll be good in two or three years” is wishful thinking at best, and ridiculous at worst.  IF we make great trades, AND IF those players that we get do well, AND IF some other players do well, we MIGHT be that 85 win team that some are so frustrated for the past few years.  However, if some of those things don’t actually occur, we’re back at 70 wins  or less.  

YMMV, but that’s where I’m coming from. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Another question related to my question above.  Would he have been pitching that third inning yesterday had he not been preparing for the WBC?  

The team isn't risking its players for an outside event. The WBC is happening because teams are considering it a wash based on the usage rules teams set. Just like the Olympics. Players need to be in basically full game ready state for the WBC at the same timeline they'd normally have for Spring Training games.

[TJSweens]

51 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

MAYBE.  IF the reason to move Prielipp to the pen was that they didn’t think that his arm will hold up to a starter’s workload, then moving him to the pen is the right thing to do, both for the pitcher and for the team.   IF they were moving him from what was perceived as a logjam (I hate that word actually) of starters, then by all means keep him stretched out as a starter.  We don’t actually know with certainty what the situation is/was with Prielipp, as we can only guess.  

A few years back there was another guy who they didn’t think would hold up to a starter’s workload named Duran.  They chose wisely in that case.  Regardless of which direction they go, let’s hope that they can choose wisely again.  

Duran was moved to the pen as a means to get him to the bigs sooner. It was supposed to be temporary, but the Twins decided they liked him in the role. Duran actually wanted to move back to the rotation. I think he would have done great as a starter with his assortment of plus pitches.

Prielipp had no health issues last year as a starter. Like I said, start him until he shows he can't be a starter.

[Aggies7]

8 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Exactly this.  Watching a baseball game between a good team and a .500 team is very interesting and mostly competitive.  Having a roughly 50% chance at victory keeps me interested in the team.  Watching a game between a 90 win team and a 60 win team isn’t usually very interesting and likely mostly uncompetitive.  It absolutely makes me want to tune out on the Twins.  

The idea that “if we trade everyone and just bottom out now, we’ll be good in two or three years” is wishful thinking at best, and ridiculous at worst.  IF we make great trades, AND IF those players that we get do well, AND IF some other players do well, we MIGHT be that 85 win team that some are so frustrated for the past few years.  However, if some of those things don’t actually occur, we’re back at 70 wins  or less.  

YMMV, but that’s where I’m coming from. 

Sort of agree but also think they should see what they could get, if the better prospects are still a couple years away. The big risk with burning it to the ground is precisely things like injuries. Just seems to be so many these days across all sports that banking on young guys to deliver the goods AND stay healthy is a gamble. Baltimore doesn’t have much to show for a decade of terrible baseball.

[weitz41]

Man, what a terrible way to start the spring training... hate to say it but I'm sure a few others are thinking/saying it. A couple more injuries and we're looking at a tough fight for 70 wins if we weren't already.

Play the kids instead of bringing in some cooked vet.

Rooting for a quick and full recovery for Pablo. One of my favorite Twins.

[Woof Bronzer]

10 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Exactly this.  Watching a baseball game between a good team and a .500 team is very interesting and mostly competitive.  Having a roughly 50% chance at victory keeps me interested in the team.  Watching a game between a 90 win team and a 60 win team isn’t usually very interesting and likely mostly uncompetitive.  It absolutely makes me want to tune out on the Twins.  

The idea that “if we trade everyone and just bottom out now, we’ll be good in two or three years” is wishful thinking at best, and ridiculous at worst.  IF we make great trades, AND IF those players that we get do well, AND IF some other players do well, we MIGHT be that 85 win team that some are so frustrated for the past few years.  However, if some of those things don’t actually occur, we’re back at 70 wins  or less.  

YMMV, but that’s where I’m coming from. 

You and Chief make a great point here - fans are not monolithic.  If there was a "one size fits all" to get butts in the seats, teams would have discovered it by now.  Just like a baseball team needs to be able to win games in different ways in the playoffs, organizations need to be able to attract fans in different ways.  

Personally a .500 season doesn't get me excited, and given the choice between endless mediocrity and boom/bust I'll take the latter.  And with this roster in particular I think 85 wins (starting to sniff the playoffs) would require historic overperformance and luck. 

But you are right, nothing is guaranteed and the risk is that the Pohlads could turn a 1-2 year rebuild into a lost decade a la the post-91 Twins.  

[hitterscount]

If Ober can return to the '23 version of himself the starting rotation won't be the reason I will be tuning out by late. August. More concerned about running out the same lackluster outfielders and a BP that has a lot of questions. But, yes... this sucks.

[bunsen82]

Let's be realistic about what this is.  

1. It truly is disappointing to lose a season of Pablo -  I still stand by this season is not dependent on Pablo.  Yes he would have been a key cog for starting pitching, but this is the one year we have excess starting pitching, with pretty high ceilings.  Ryan is now are de facto #1, Now will Ober or Bradley take the mantle of #2 pitcher.   They stated yesterday,  Bradley's stuff looked very very good.   The only thing we are missing out on potentially is some trade value had we traded Pablo. 

2. Buxton came out and said he was was upset the Twins did not squash the trade rumors more,  even though if I recall the 1 quote was supposedly from Buxton saying he was open to be traded.  I think we are going to stand by Buxton is with us long term.  

3. We are still building for the future whether Tom is willing to admit it or not.  The tradeable players are Ryan and potentially Jeffers. Jeffers was told though that he was going to be the primary catcher this year.   The mixed signals is the difficult part.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

48 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

Duran was moved to the pen as a means to get him to the bigs sooner. It was supposed to be temporary, but the Twins decided they liked him in the role. Duran actually wanted to move back to the rotation. I think he would have done great as a starter with his assortment of plus pitches.

Prielipp had no health issues last year as a starter. Like I said, start him until he shows he can't be a starter.

They were trying to keep him healthy as well and they weren’t sure that he could do that under a starter’s workload.  They also thought his stuff would play up big time in the bullpen — and they were correct.  Indeed, Prielipp had no health issues last year as a starter. . . . for the first time in his career. . . ever. . . . after multiple lost years to injury. I’d like to keep him that way.   

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I'd consider myself pretty hardcore...and I would rather watch 80-82 than 60-102.

For one thing, there's zero guarantee of any pot of gold at the end of that rookie rainbow. Just because you play a bunch of rookies doesnt mean there's a payoff down the line.

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

Especially wasted on day 1.  Sign Giolito or Scherzer or Litell and let's go! ..... 

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I'd consider myself pretty hardcore...and I would rather watch 80-82 than 60-102.

For one thing, there's zero guarantee of any pot of gold at the end of that rookie rainbow. Just because you play a bunch of rookies doesnt mean there's a payoff down the line.

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

I agree. Plus no one is being blocked. I reckon we will see all of Festa, Mathews, Bradley, Abel and more at some point during the season even if we sign Giolito. 

[howeda7]

47 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

If Ober can return to the '23 version of himself the starting rotation won't be the reason I will be tuning out by late. August. More concerned about running out the same lackluster outfielders and a BP that has a lot of questions. But, yes... this sucks.

I am hopeful that either Rodriguez or Gonzalez wins the LF job, or at least they are quick to call one of them up if Roden flops. 

[howeda7]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

80-82 is out of the playoffs. They don't hang 3rd place pennants at Target Field.

But that's a false equivalence. Trading Joe Ryan is the difference between 74-88 and 69-93. He's not worth 20 wins on his own. Are you a huge fan of 74-88? That's a team that is irrelevant from May to September.

It's not a terrible idea. Adding Giolito gives them something else to trade away in July. Buy low, sell high.

85-78 might be. I'm simply advocating that you replace Pablo as best you can and see how the 1st half plays out. You will likely get more for Ryan and Jeffers in July than you will now. If Pablo's arm went out on December 1st, it's a different discussion. A team suddenly doing a 180 and dumping players in February has pretty much never been done. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

I'd consider myself pretty hardcore...and I would rather watch 80-82 than 60-102.

For one thing, there's zero guarantee of any pot of gold at the end of that rookie rainbow. Just because you play a bunch of rookies doesnt mean there's a payoff down the line.

For another, wins matter to me. And I only have so many seasons left to enjoy. I am loathe to see seasons wasted.

And there's a good school of thought that because the playoffs are much more random than the regular season, any year where you have any chance of making the playoffs, you should be going for it. And if you think the team might be 80-82...hell, maybe they catch a few breaks and end up at 83-79 and steal a Wild Card slot (worked for Cincy in 2025).

Plus, the changes to the draft/lottery have really disincentivized the Astro Strategy of "lose a ton for 4 years, pile up the top 5 draft picks, and get it on", because you ain't getting top 5 picks 4 seasons in a row again, ever.

Sigh. I'm bummed about losing Pablo. He was fun to watch pitch. Maybe we'll get lucky (for once) and Mick Abel or Zebby Matthews figures it out and turns into A Guy.

[rdehring]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The team isn't risking its players for an outside event. The WBC is happening because teams are considering it a wash based on the usage rules teams set. Just like the Olympics. Players need to be in basically full game ready state for the WBC at the same timeline they'd normally have for Spring Training games.

Don't think you understood what I was trying to say.  On the first day of full team workouts, would Lopez have been pitching into the third inning of a simulated game if this wasn't a WBC year?  I don't know, but seriously doubt it.  Also don't have a clue if this was going to happen anyway and this just brought it on sooner.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Fans on this site represent the hardcore of the hardcore would rather watch rookies go 60-102 then veterans go 80-82. I get that.

 

 

If the question is would you rather go 60-102 or 80-82 that's a different question. 

Speaking for myself and probably 1 or 2 others. 

I just don't believe that going with youth automatically means 60-102 and I don't believe that vets mean 80-82. 

I'm not talking about the specific random numbers thrown out. It's the implication that youth is bad and vet is good or at least average that I'm not so sure about. 

Even if the youth is bad... At some point you'll have to turn your youth into vets... might as well get the process started.   

Cleveland and Tampa are routinely youthful and routinely competitive. 

 

 

 

[Rosterman]

This is where the Twins suffer in their marketplace standing. Between Pablos $20+m and the $10m paid to the Astros to play Correa the next few seasons, it is basically 1/3 of the payroll not being used to play the game.

On top of that, the Twins will be stuck paying Pablo for 2027, with hopes that they get a decent season out of him, make a qualifying offer, and get at least a modest draft pick.

The Twins can't afford to have salary sit on the bench, sadly, unlike BIG market teams. And although we could've got out of Pablo's services, possibly, right at season's end, the value wasn't there. it was still a major gamble for any other team who would jsut as soon wait to see how Pablo comes back in Spring Training, or how he starts the season.

I'm still curious to see how the World Baseball Classic plays out in the end. Ryan pitching there. Is Hendriks still pitching for Australia, or realizing he is better suited to being in camp with the Twins to get the job. Matt Bowman also pitching in the classic. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

This is where the Twins suffer in their marketplace standing. Between Pablos $20+m and the $10m paid to the Astros to play Correa the next few seasons, it is basically 1/3 of the payroll not being used to play the game.

On top of that, the Twins will be stuck paying Pablo for 2027, with hopes that they get a decent season out of him, make a qualifying offer, and get at least a modest draft pick.

The Twins can't afford to have salary sit on the bench, sadly, unlike BIG market teams. And although we could've got out of Pablo's services, possibly, right at season's end, the value wasn't there. it was still a major gamble for any other team who would jsut as soon wait to see how Pablo comes back in Spring Training, or how he starts the season.

I'm still curious to see how the World Baseball Classic plays out in the end. Ryan pitching there. Is Hendriks still pitching for Australia, or realizing he is better suited to being in camp with the Twins to get the job. Matt Bowman also pitching in the classic. 

This is one of the biggest differences between big and small market teams.  A team with a $100M payroll needs to have nearly everything go right from a performance and injury perspective in order to be successful.  On the other hand, a team with a $200M payroll has some leeway built into the budget projection. They might just be able to go out and sign a replacement right out of the free agent market.  A hit of $20M (Lopez) plus $10M (Correa) is extremely detrimental when your budget can’t absorb it.  This problem takes the already inherent disadvantages of a small market/budget team and amplifies them to the point where an injury or two can tank an entire season, or at very least, delay progress.  

[Craig Arko]

I suppose with the chances of a long work stoppage in 2027 this might be the end of Pablo’s Twins career. That’s just a real bummer.