What Josh Bell’s Signing Means for the Rest of the Twins’ Lineup

[bunsen82]

16 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Sure. I'll take the under on Josh Bell being a 2-3 WAR bat. I mean he hasn't even sniffed 1 WAR in 3 years. That is just not a reasonable projection for him. Do I hope he does that? Absolutely. But a realistic projection for Josh Bell is 0 WAR. 

Bader hadn't touched a 1 War since 2022.  Even still statistical outliers are not normal performance.   

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Bader hadn't touched a 1 War since 2022.  Even still statistical outliers are not normal performance.   

Bader brought elite defense. That was always going to be the case. He was always going to be useful in that way. He's an awful comp here. And he had .9 WAR in 2024. If that isn't "touching 1" I don't know what is. His problem was health. He had .6 WAR in 98 games in 2023. 

Could Bell put up a 130 OPS+? Sure. Julien could, too. Lewis could put up 160. Wallner 150. Larnach 125. Then the Twins are winning the division by 10 games and fighting for a title. "Can" is a terrible metric. What are the likelihoods? That's all that matters. Falvey has been building off the "can" for years and it's gone very poorly because the most likely outcomes are the ones that keep happening. The strategy of "if everybody has career years, we're golden" is a bad strategy. We certainly all hope it happens every year but expecting it is bad team building. It's what the Twins have been doing for years. And it's why they continue to struggle.

[bunsen82]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Bader brought elite defense. That was always going to be the case. He was always going to be useful in that way. He's an awful comp here. And he had .9 WAR in 2024. If that isn't "touching 1" I don't know what is. His problem was health. He had .6 WAR in 98 games in 2023. 

Could Bell put up a 130 OPS+? Sure. Julien could, too. Lewis could put up 160. Wallner 150. Larnach 125. Then the Twins are winning the division by 10 games and fighting for a title. "Can" is a terrible metric. What are the likelihoods? That's all that matters. Falvey has been building off the "can" for years and it's gone very poorly because the most likely outcomes are the ones that keep happening. The strategy of "if everybody has career years, we're golden" is a bad strategy. We certainly all hope it happens every year but expecting it is bad team building. It's what the Twins have been doing for years. And it's why they continue to struggle.

To be fair yes he touched 1, but not the 3.4 he put up.  I am hoping for a statistical outlier.  Is it hopeful yes,  and you are correct Bader provided defense and offense.   Like we have both discussed,  playing for a mediocre team isn't in the best interests of an organization operating like a small market team,   The blow up scenario is the best option.  Even the owners can't stomach the fan upheaval on that so we continue with this buy and sell yo-yo and .500 ish records.  

[IndianaTwin]

30 minutes ago, Jasper said:

Was there an open roster spot or does someone have to move off the roster?

Open roster spot with the DFAing of McCusker and then acquisition and trade of Susac.

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

To be fair yes he touched 1, but not the 3.4 he put up.  I am hoping for a statistical outlier.  Is it hopeful yes,  and you are correct Bader provided defense and offense.   Like we have both discussed,  playing for a mediocre team isn't in the best interests of an organization operating like a small market team,   The blow up scenario is the best option.  Even the owners can't stomach the fan upheaval on that so we continue with this buy and sell yo-yo and .500 ish records.  

Oh, I'm certainly hoping there's a dozen statistical outliers. I just don't judge moves based on that hope. I don't hate this move. It's the type of move I expected. I just don't love the move either. It's defensible and I hope Bell does well.

[IndianaTwin]

What Josh Bell's Signing Means for the Rest of the Twins Lineup?

I think it means (further) trouble for Julien. Injuries leading to IL transactions tend to open things up, but if one assumes a roster of 2 catchers, 6 infielders and 5 outfielders, it's harder and harder to see Julien among the top six infielders, given his positional limitation. In the current mix, I'd see Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Clemens and then Fitzgerald because of his ability to play on the left side.  

That Julien doesn't have options is a strike in favor of making the team so they don't lose him, but it's also strike against him when it comes to keeping him around vs. a Fitzgerald or Gasper, who both do. 

There's talk of Keaschall to the OF, but it seems the most likely way for that to happen is Culpepper thriving and forcing Lee to 2B. I suppose it's possible Julien runs with the position at 2B, but I'm not optimistic. 

[purplesoldier4u]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He's better than Clemens and Julien, but hasn't had an OPS over .750 in four years. I really hope just because he's a veteran and because he was a free agent signing, that they don't automatically pencil him into the middle of the order. Can't we aim a bit higher than that? Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, hopefully Lewis and even Wallner are probably better suited for the top half of the lineup. And that's presuming no other free agents, trades or improvements from the existing players.

But yeah, the team is probably going to act like this was a big-time free agent signing and treat it as such line-up wise.

Wallner?

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

But Bell plays a defensive position that is the lowest on the spectrum.  The incremental hitting far outweighs any difference in the fielding prowess of Ty France, or any other prospective Twin 2026 first baseman.   If you really expect the Twins to be marginal competitors, this isn't a terrible signing.  

They signed the 37th best first baseman of 2025 to help them "compete". That's a terrible signing. Ty France (27th) and Kody Clemens (20th) both ranked higher than Josh Bell.

[Linus]

Here is a wild idea. Trade for a controlled first baseman that actually could solve the problem.   I’ve heard that one way to be a good team is to add good players.  Just tossing out wild ideas here……

[Brandon]

I would think if Bell hits 20-25 HRs and 70-80 RBIs he will justify his 7 million salary easily.  I feel like he can easily do this.  The question is can the Twins get his defense close to average so he can be worth 1-2 WAR on the season.  

[Nashvilletwin]

Cody, thank you for so clearly pointing out how poor this signing is.

He can’t field.

He’s really only usable against righties (don’t we have enough of that already).

He’s 100% going to take ABs away from Wallner, Julien, Larnach and Clemens.

He will limit the possibility of getting Keaschall reps at 1B.

His presence could contribute to delaying bringing up Jenkins, ERod and/or Culpepper.

He cost $7MM - money that could have been spent on the relief corps.

He’s 33 and on the downside of his career.

He has no chance of being here for the post lockout core in ‘28.

No one could possibly expect him to add more than a win or two at best to a team where one or two more wins are inconsequential. 

The only positive attribute you pointed out is that he might be tradable at the deadline.

Bell is an absolute Falvey special. Nothing more or less.

I, for one, have zero desire to commit my fan emotional energy to him or any of the other one and done retreads Falvey signs.  I’m certainly less likely to buy a ticket today than yesterday   

 

 

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The only positive attribute you pointed out is that he might be tradable at the deadline.

Washington couldn't trade him last season at the deadline.

The last two Josh Bell trades were

August 1, 2023: Traded by the Cleveland Guardians to the Miami Marlins for Kahlil Watson (minors) and Jean Segura.

July 30, 2024: Traded by the Miami Marlins to the Arizona Diamondbacks for player to be name later.

Kahlil Watson is still a prospect - ranked #18 in Cleveland's system with a 40 FV. He looks like a utility outfielder. Jean Segura is retired.

Miami ended up with cash considerations instead of a PTBNL.

If the Twins want "cash considerations" they could just save the $7M and not sign Josh Bell.

 

[AceWrigley]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I fully and completely believe Derek Falvey thinks he just made a meaningful deal that will help this team be good in 2026.

And therein lies the problem.

[AceWrigley]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If the Twins want "cash considerations" they could just save the $7M and not sign Josh Bell.

 

[RpR]

Hopefully it keeps Julien off the Big League field for 162 games.

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

It isn't an awful move by any means. But let's not make Josh Bell into more than he is.

Which is a bit bette than the usual make some thing into less good than it is/was.

[TopGunn#22]

Cody and NashvilleTwin have really shined a spotlight on what a poor signing this was.  Others have as well.  He's a "functional" hitter, but nothing special.  He was the #37th rated 1B in Major League Baseball last year, and his defense is so atrocious you'll have to see it, to believe it.

Lewis, Lee and Keaschall cannot be excited about this trade.  They paid $7 million dollars for a bad option.  There were better options available for the same or a little more. 

If Bell has to DH a lot, the player I see most negatively affected is Matt Wallner.  We've learned that the "meandering moose" is NOT a very good OF despite having a good arm.  A majority of those on TD were envisioning him as a DH in 2026.  Josh Bell kills that dream.

Larnach is certainly going to be traded after this signing and I would suggest that Wallner's promise and current value (20.5 BBTV) could bring back something good to a weak area of the roster.  Had they signed someone who could field a lick at 1B, Wallner might have been in a better situation.  Instead, if the Twins are going to give Wallner any decent number of AB's they will be forced to start Bell at 1B with Wallner at DH.

Did I say that Lewis, Lee and Keaschall are less then thrilled about this signing? 

The best thing about Josh Bell is that he's durable and he hits RH pitching pretty well.  Unfortunately, other than durability, Left Handed Power is what Wallner was supposed to supply...as the DH.   

[S Bart]

4 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Who would have thought Pagan would have got a 2 year $20 million contract.  I might have gone slightly over,  but look at our own Bader who we signed in that $5 to $6 million range,  he is looking at a 2-3 year deal in the the $10 million to $13 million AAV range.  

Well...players aspire to do better after experiencing the Twins

[nova_twins]

I don't understand what all the armchair GMs would do with no budget. Make fantasy trades that can't happen in real life I guess. 

[Linus]

1 minute ago, nova_twins said:

I don't understand what all the armchair GMs would do with no budget. Make fantasy trades that can't happen in real life I guess. 

There are all kinds of trades that can be made. 

[nova_twins]

4 minutes ago, Linus said:

There are all kinds of trades that can be made. 

The kinds of trades people want are very rare and, at the end of the day, trades shuffle assets around but don't change their immediate value. 

The Twins need a bunch of additional value but can't take on payroll and prospects take time/are unpredictable. 

Shortcuts are a fantasy. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You're pointing out two undeniably good deals and veterans that were used to near perfection? 

Ty France had to be packaged with Louis Varland to offload 2 months of his $1m contract for Alan Roden who shouldn’t make any 26 man roster and is out of options. That was not a good deal. He over performed and still sucked. Bader had his best season in years. These are absolutely examples of outcomes that could happen. Either end of it. Knowing this team, which is more likely to repeat?

[Linus]

18 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

The kinds of trades people want are very rare and, at the end of the day, trades shuffle assets around but don't change their immediate value. 

The Twins need a bunch of additional value but can't take on payroll and prospects take time/are unpredictable. 

Shortcuts are a fantasy. 

So Ryan or Lopez can’t bring back a player that can help fill one of those holes longer term? Or even Ober or SWR?

[D.C Twins]

"Bell has been charged with -20 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average. He struggles with range and consistency, and his lack of speed shows when plays require lateral movement."

Tell me he should only DH without telling me that he should only DH...

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

I don't understand what all the armchair GMs would do with no budget. Make fantasy trades that can't happen in real life I guess. 

Play Roden at first? Wallner at DH? Make a trade or three? Not sign a guy that was not good for three straight years?

[Mike Sixel]

22 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

The kinds of trades people want are very rare and, at the end of the day, trades shuffle assets around but don't change their immediate value. 

The Twins need a bunch of additional value but can't take on payroll and prospects take time/are unpredictable. 

Shortcuts are a fantasy. 

And thinking Bell is going to help this team win is what, realism?

[D.C Twins]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins are trying to claim they are trying to be a good team, though. And people here are going to claim the same thing, and point to this signing as a reason to believe they can be. 

I'm on a crusade to make it known far and wide that the Twins are not going to be the team so many want them to be until we stop accepting that these are top half of the order hitters. We've been so conditioned now that people are really struggling to look at the team and compare it realistically to what the actual good lineups look like. I've made it my mission to annoy everyone by pointing this out constantly.

THIS.... one clear above average player in the line-up currently (Buck). That is not a plan to be a good team (even if you did have any semblance of a bullpen)....

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

He's better than Clemens and Julien, but hasn't had an OPS over .750 in four years. I really hope just because he's a veteran and because he was a free agent signing, that they don't automatically pencil him into the middle of the order. Can't we aim a bit higher than that? Buxton, Keaschall, Jeffers, hopefully Lewis and even Wallner are probably better suited for the top half of the lineup. And that's presuming no other free agents, trades or improvements from the existing players.

But yeah, the team is probably going to act like this was a big-time free agent signing and treat it as such line-up wise.

Is he really better than Clemens - I posted their stats on another TD essay - I am not convinced we improved.

[nova_twins]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And thinking Bell is going to help this team win is what, realism?

It's what they can afford, I really don't see the point of pretending there's some easy magic fix and Falvey just loves losing instead. It's a childish way of looking at the situation. 

[nova_twins]

18 minutes ago, Linus said:

So Ryan or Lopez can’t bring back a player that can help fill one of those holes longer term? Or even Ober or SWR?

Neither Ober nor SWR can bring back anything impactful. 

Ryan or Lopez is just taking with one hand and giving to the other. Get worse in the rotation for an upgrade elsewhere. Why? There's no guarantee even the current rotation will be a strength. 

There is no magical series of trades out there. This isn't a video game. 

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

It's what they can afford, I really don't see the point of pretending there's some easy magic fix and Falvey just loves losing instead. It's a childish way of looking at the situation. 

Who said there is any easy fix? Calling people who disagree with your take childish? Nice.