Same Offseason, Different Winter for the Twins

[Parker Hageman]

Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Certainly, the list of teams that have yet to sign a major league free agent is trying to tell us something. It always is. When that list includes the Nationals and Rockies -- two clubs that spent 2025 playing out the string and still managed to finish a combined 80 games out of first place -- the message isn’t exactly encrypted. Those organizations have made peace with their current reality, and free agency is apparently not the place where they plan to fix it.

As a reminder, Major League Baseball ownership is not required to spend money in any sort of equitable or competitive way. There are luxury tax penalties, sure, but many teams treat those like speed bumps -- something to hit harder so you get airborne on the other side. The Dodgers, perched at the top of the payroll food chain, pay a luxury tax larger than the entire payrolls of 12 other teams. This is not an accident. It’s a choice.

None of this is meant as an excuse for the Pohlad family. They are free to spend as much as they’d like. In fact, it would probably make them more money in the long run. There’s research on fandom psychology showing that when teams win championships during a child’s formative years (roughly ages 8 to 12), the emotional attachment is basically permanent. Speaking as someone who was 8 and 10 when the Twins last won the World Series, I can say with some confidence that without those titles, I probably wouldn’t be sitting here banging away at a keyboard explaining why this organization should win baseball games.

You can argue, and people often do, that baseball in Minnesota presents unique challenges. Cold spring weather. Cabin weekends. A population that wants to be outside the second the snow melts. Pepper in the lingering perception that downtown isn’t safe. (I’d argue that’s at least partially manufactured, but the response to it is very real. Target Field’s surrounding infrastructure is designed so fans can exit their cars, enter a ramp, cross a skyway, and reach their seats without ever really interacting with downtown at all.) Then there’s the simple, unavoidable cost of taking a family to a game. Wrap that all in a fetid burrito shell of losing baseball and you can see how the attendance has shrunk to near nothing.

All of that is to say: winning could solve a lot of those problems. Grabbing attention in a positive way would help awake a dormant fanbase. 

It would be easy -- and honestly pretty cathartic -- to wallow in the reality that the Twins aren’t going to “play the spend game.” The ongoing team sale saga only reinforces why blowing past self-imposed guardrails might not be prudent when buyers never quite materialize. This is simply the world the Twins have chosen to operate in. We can be mad about it. We can tweet about it. But we don’t control it.

Which brings us to the first immutable truth of the Twins’ offseason: they are not shopping in the premium free agent aisle. You can point to Carlos Correa as evidence that they’ll chase elite talent, but even there the market was softened by injury concerns. Acknowledging that, you’d still think there should be some options in the next tier, those players who fit a team publicly committed to building around its existing core.

As Derek Falvey explained during the Winter Meetings, this is just how the market works now.

Quote

“There’s premium free agents every cycle seeking some of the most significant contracts every offseason. You’d be surprised how many guys behind that all think they peg off of that. Some teams might say ‘I know this team has a lot of money to spend on this player but if they don’t get him we’re right in the mix in the next band.’ That’s six players who all think they’re getting the next band of money. There’s a bit of a domino effect that doesn’t necessarily mean bargain bin or guys that are cheaper. It’s just the reality of the sequence of events.”

The Twins have openly acknowledged the need for a power bat, but the odds of that bat being the market-setter -- someone like Pete Alonso -- were always close to zero. Yes, it would have been fun to watch the Polar Bear deposit baseballs into the Target Field seats for a couple of summers. It’s also true that aging corner infielders on long-term deals have a tendency to stop aging gracefully right around the time the contract gets uncomfortable. The real question is whether similar production can be found in the next tier -- the Ryan O’Hearn or Carlos Santana types who sat just behind Alonso in WAR in 2025.

That doesn’t mean help isn’t coming. As Falvey noted, conversations with late-signing free agents often begin far earlier than fans realize.

Quote

“There will be plenty of time where we make an offer on a player in late November or early December and be told ‘We’re not ready to engage on the offer.’ You go with no feedback for a period of time. That happens plenty. Eventually, you get to it later. Last year, Harrison Bader was a guy we liked... We ultimately came to a place where we could agree on a deal until much later. Danny Coulombe, a good fit for us, and even Ty France later on, a guy we monitored through the offseason. All those guys came later in the offseason, but we were talking about them in December.”

It’s not sexy, but it’s worth remembering that Bader’s 4.4 WAR in 2025 ranked among the best of any current free agent center fielder -- and 2.7 of that came in a Twins uniform. Taken together, the Bader, Coulombe, and France trio produced 5.1 WAR at a combined cost of roughly $8.75 million. That’s not a terrible return for waiting out the market. That said, there’s a fine line between acknowledging efficient roster construction and applauding austerity, and celebrating miserly decision-making by front offices might be the most lasting -- and frustrating -- legacy Moneyball left an entire generation of fans.

The second notable offseason trend is the reliever market, where top-end arms have been scooped up like James Woods following a trail of candy -- and the Twins haven’t even been rumored participants. This is especially confusing given that the front office effectively emptied the bullpen at last year’s trade deadline. It’s also a team that operates squarely in the modern philosophy of shortening games and leaning heavily on relievers. In 2025, Twins relievers threw multiple innings just 109 times. Only the Cubs and Phillies used their bullpen in shorter bursts.

If there were ever a roster primed for a bullpen reload, it’s this one.

There are reasons for the restraint. Historically, Falvey’s front office has avoided multi-year deals for free agent relievers. Most additions come late in the offseason, on one-year contracts. Given the volatility of bullpen arms, that logic tracks. Pitching is the most expensive commodity on the open market, and the Twins have invested heavily in an “arm barn” designed to produce options internally at a fraction of the cost.

There’s also confidence in the current wave of young arms. Just as Griffin Jax and Louis Varland before them, several starting pitching prospects are likely to be converted into relievers. Scroll through the list of arms acquired or already in the system, and it’s almost a certainty that one or more will be asked to handle late-inning duties by season’s end.

The Twins will continue to take shots on one-year relievers and waiver claims they believe can be molded into something more. It hasn’t always worked, but keeping long-term money off the bullpen preserves flexibility elsewhere.

Still, it’s hard not to feel exhausted by the annual exercise of justifying all of this. From a fan’s perspective, the math is simple: identify the best players and go get them. The Twins’ ownership and front office have chosen a different equation, complete with clearly defined guardrails. And like it or not, they’ll continue operating within them -- come hell, high water, or another quiet winter.

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[LastOnePicked]

For the time being, I've given up being worried about free agent spending for this club. Seems like when you have a roster near contention, you look at the gaps you have and target more aggressively in free agency to fill them. It's downright disgusting that this didn't happen in the 23-24 offseason, but we've all spent enough bile on that.

Now, I want all focus to be on development, development, development. We don't need a Bader or a France or even a Correa. We need some of the best scouts, coaches and training facilities in MLB.

I don't want them to spend a penny of Pohlad and pals precious cash on free agents this offseason. I want to see an organizational rebuild that will keep top talent from crashing out in year two of their MLB experience. I want young players to have a much smoother - and quicker - pathway to success. That's all I care about now. 

[AceWrigley]

So, if the Twins make a move and no one hears it, did they really make a move?

[tony&rodney]

Falvey is determined to get his own personal three-peat: 2023, 2024, 2025 = boom; Falvey wins.

I'm not sure how many people are familiar with the renown trauma physician Dr. Gabor Mate', a Hungarian-Canadian physician. I'm wondering what trauma Falvey endured.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just wanted to say I always appreciate and love your writing Parker. Thank you!

[Woof Bronzer]

I don't know, I'd say a 57 win team would indicate a "broken" team....

This is an odd piece.  I think most fans understand that the Twins don't shop in the top tier.  I guess my issue with the piece is basically condescending to fans that the Pohalds are doing the only viable strategy for this team and we must understand that we cannot have nice things, it is and shall always be.  

Um, no?  The Pohlads choose to act this way.  It's bad for the Twins and bad for the Pohlads' bottom line.  I refuse to buy into this fatalism that MN sports fans have drilled into them.  No.  It doesn't have to be this way.   Adding $30 mil to the payroll "out of the Pohlads' own pocket" is the equivalent to $500 for the median American net worth.  I bet the majority of TDers (with the means) would chip this in to help the team compete.  Stop making excuses for the Pohlads!  There is no one way to run a team; they do what they do by choice, and they are bad at it.  It's quite simple.  

A lot of TD writers have settled on "build on the core" as the one true right thing to do.   Many of us do not agree with that, because this team simply doesn't have enough talent.  I don't want them to sign any pricey free agents at all.  I do not want them to pretend to compete.  Play the kids. Build toward something better.  For the love of pete do something different.  The Twins have done this "same old offseason" thing the past 2 years and both seasons ended in abject failure.  Doing the same thing again and expecting different results with this talent-deficient roster is lunacy.

[tony&rodney]

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I don't know, I'd say a 57 win team would indicate a "broken" team....

This is an odd piece.  I think most fans understand that the Twins don't shop in the top tier.  I guess my issue with the piece is basically condescending to fans that the Pohalds are doing the only viable strategy for this team and we must understand that we cannot have nice things, it is and shall always be.  

Um, no?  The Pohlads choose to act this way.  It's bad for the Twins and bad for the Pohlads' bottom line.  I refuse to buy into this fatalism that MN sports fans have drilled into them.  No.  It doesn't have to be this way.   Adding $30 mil to the payroll "out of the Pohlads' own pocket" is the equivalent to $500 for the median American net worth.  I bet the majority of TDers (with the means) would chip this in to help the team compete.  Stop making excuses for the Pohlads!  There is no one way to run a team; they do what they do by choice, and they are bad at it.  It's quite simple.  

A lot of TD writers have settled on "build on the core" as the one true right thing to do.   Many of us do not agree with that, because this team simply doesn't have enough talent.  I don't want them to sign any pricey free agents at all.  I do not want them to pretend to compete.  Play the kids. Build toward something better.  For the love of pete do something different.  The Twins have done this "same old offseason" thing the past 2 years and both seasons ended in abject failure.  Doing the same thing again and expecting different results with this talent-deficient roster is lunacy.

I appreciate your position because i mostly share the same thoughts. I do think half of TD thinks differently though. We need to respect those who see things differently and disagree with our position. Even if it makes us drink.

Does Faley think?

[Woof Bronzer]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I appreciate your position because i mostly share the same thoughts. I do think half of TD thinks differently though. We need to respect those who see things differently and disagree with our position. Even if it makes us drink.

Does Faley think?

Oh for sure I'm not saying my opinion is right, who the heck knows who is right? I'm just saying there seems to be an assumption with these articles that trying to contend is obviously the best approach.  This piece takes that for granted and doesn't even ask the question "should we be active in free agency at all?"

[Blyleven2011]

Fan research on Fandom  , again the pohlads and FO haven't done there homework  , attendance has been on the no where to go but up and that hasn't happened since the right sizing after 2023 ...

Yes it would be nice to have a consistent power bat like Alonso , but the twins have only had 1 true power hitter since 1961 and that is the great memories of Harmon Killebrew crushing consistently 40 plus homeruns a season , yes we've had Cruz and Dozier even topped 40 homers for a season , we've had hrbek , Puckett gaetti  , Bruno,  willing ham all top 30 homer seasons but not as consistent as the killer  ...

We really just haven't been a homerun hitting team consistently over the years and it's gotten so boring that falvey believed we were a homerun hitting team and forgot that there is more to playing the game of  baseball than the solo homeruns , ( small ball can be successful if done right and some teams have done it right  ) , so much wrong with this team it's time to turn it around with our cheap minimum wage prospect's and teach them the right way or it's the highway ...

The twins did well with the mentioned 3 free agents last year but even a blind squirrel finds a acorn once in awhile and falvey finally found the veterans after 8 years of dumpster diving  ...

[RpR]

1 hour ago, AceWrigley said:

So, if the Twins make a move and no one hears it, did they really make a move?

Oh yes, the moaing and groaning here about not doing what some here think should be done will  be very loud.

[DJL44]

The Twins will be in the running for the annual wins per dollar spent award again in 2026.

I feel bad for Twins Daily. We all know there won't be any significant transactions until January 15 or later but they have to keep cranking out articles.

[Linus]

I really don’t have heartburn about the lack of free agent spending. For mid market teams big free agents contracts are risky business. What drives me nuts is the lack of aggressiveness in making the roster better. This lineup has been poor by any measure for several years but we just roll the same lineup out there and hope this is the year everyone figures it out. Be proactive and try to address deficiencies. 

[tony&rodney]

19 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Oh for sure I'm not saying my opinion is right, who the heck knows who is right? I'm just saying there seems to be an assumption with these articles that trying to contend is obviously the best approach.  This piece takes that for granted and doesn't even ask the question "should we be active in free agency at all?"

Something tells me Parker doesn't care for the Twins policies and plans, but I don't know.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, RpR said:

Oh yes, the moaing and groaning here about not doing what some here think should be done will  be very loud.

I hear your grunts. Take it easy old fella.

[HerbieFan]

‘We’re not ready to engage on the offer.’ 

In other words..."we really don't want to sign with the Twins but if we get really desperate we'll get back to you in February."

[digging the dirt life]

I was born in '65, moved to the TC in '67, raised throughout the Midwest and considered it all "Twins Territory".  I cut my teeth on Carew, Bostock, Hisle, and Danny Ford and hated every minute of having Cal Griffith own the team.  Then, as a young adult, Kirby, Herbie, and the crew happened as well as '87 and '91.  We've had our moments in the 21st Century.  Just no titles.  

I'm no basketball fan, but the T'Wolves are relevant.  I love watching hockey, but don't quite understand the details the way I do football and baseball.  The Wild just pulled off a mega-trade to go "all-in" for the cup.  The Vikes are no slouches when it comes to spending and operate in an equal opportunity league.  Love 'em or hate 'em, there's always a reason to watch.  Unfortunately, the Pohlads have devolved into Cal Griffith territory with this organization.  I'll keep paying attention to box scores, reading articles on here, and watching a few highlights.  But they won't full me into spending good money on going to a game unless they are actually competing.  So, whatever...

[amjgt]

Quote

They are free to spend as much as they’d like. In fact, it would probably make them more money in the long run.

Look at how much more valuable the Timberwolves franchise got once Edwards came around and the Wolves got good. Maintaining (or increasing) the level of success after the 2023 run would've more than paid for itself in the sale price and buyer interest. 

[Wizard11]

Parker, as always I really appreciate your thoughtful and insightful writing.  You lift the level of dialogue up to a level of thought provoking and away from the ever available sewer of click bait.  Always refreshing.  For me the content you produce (along with Nick) is what keeps me coming back to TD.  Thank you for your hard work.

[umterp23]

So we hear words about building around the core, what if the core is actually the youth core? Lewis, keaschall, Lee, Jenkins, etc and not presumed Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers? Would we be happy with it? I would as you aren’t going to get any of them to resign, or extend, etc as title contention is at best 2028 and that is if you are lucky. AL EAST will be the dominant playoff teams in the mix and your one central rep won’t be the twins in near future. Bargain bin shopping that Falvey likes to do to say we are building around the core is comical, but not funny

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I really don’t have heartburn about the lack of free agent spending. For mid market teams big free agents contracts are risky business. What drives me nuts is the lack of aggressiveness in making the roster better. This lineup has been poor by any measure for several years but we just roll the same lineup out there and hope this is the year everyone figures it out. Be proactive and try to address deficiencies. 

Exactly - this team has more deficiencies than a single move can fill.

[tony&rodney]

54 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

So we hear words about building around the core, what if the core is actually the youth core? Lewis, keaschall, Lee, Jenkins, etc and not presumed Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers? Would we be happy with it? I would as you aren’t going to get any of them to resign, or extend, etc as title contention is at best 2028 and that is if you are lucky. AL EAST will be the dominant playoff teams in the mix and your one central rep won’t be the twins in near future. Bargain bin shopping that Falvey likes to do to say we are building around the core is comical, but not funny

The lack of a plan is evident. Teams with a concept don't wait out the signings and trades and then get busy signing the best of what is left over. Bader, France, and Coulombe were great last season. They were helpful in guiding the Twins to 72 wins. 

Math seems to be difficult for the Twins brain trust. The ownership bleeds money and is now begging for investor funds while the club POBO wonders how much money is available and sits around looking confused. The Brewers, Guardians, Rays, and more keep making their decisions and work quickly to address weaknesses that might hinder their clubs from reaching their goals. It's a tough job but business is tough for most in the scrappy parts of town.

If there was one change that might boost the Twins it is a clever publicist who handles all communications and delivers messages of hope. Falvey doesn't ever need to speak publicly again in his lifetime. It would be for the best. He is by many accounts a wonderful fellow. He is a step below lame as a speaker though which is clearly not his strength. If he is to run the business of the club he needs to allow the employees in charge of talent procurement, public relations, etc. do their jobs. 

The Twins have some good young players that are capable of leading the team in competition for division flags. Those players are Jenkins, Keaschall, and others. It may be possible to hold on to one of Ryan or Lopez for one more year and even Byron, maybe. The time to move on was apparent when Duran and Varland were moved last July. It is time to complete what was started.

[AceWrigley]

It's my opinion that there are no longer any Pohlads that care about the Minnesota Twins in a baseball sense. Through whatever financial endeavors they were pursuing, it left the Twins with an approximate $500 million debt. This debt influenced the hoped for sale negatively enough to prevent any suitor from providing an adequate offer for the Pohlads. They shifted gears and acquired some minor partners in hopes that the injected cash into the Twins will "right" the balance sheet to then again pursue another sale.

I might be wrong but that's how I see it. It's not baseball as normal. This is the worst of the worst situation as a Twins fan. Budget? What budget? Plan? What Plan? I'm of the mindset now that I don't care to even talk or read about what they might do or what they should do because it doesn't matter, it's not going to be what they will do. What are they doing? Who knows, but it isn't about winning baseball games.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

Look at how much more valuable the Timberwolves franchise got once Edwards came around and the Wolves got good. Maintaining (or increasing) the level of success after the 2023 run would've more than paid for itself in the sale price and buyer interest. 

Think back to the free agents that had the most support here.  Hoskins was the bat and Montgomery was the arm.  We would not have been any better.  Yes, they should not have dialed back the spending but the assertion that spending would have made a big difference is not necessarily true.  Santana was actually better than Hoskins and Montgomery sucked.  Had they made those two popular moves they would have been worse.

[GNess]

Let;'s face it, the Twins in effect are in direct competition with teams who are willing to spend much more money on payroll than they are choosing to do. Yes, the different markets contribute tø this, but choice is still a big part of it.

So as fans of the Twins we have some tendency to romanticize the great bargain free agent that Twins once in a while secure (e.g. Carlos Santana) as evidence that frugality can win in MLB because the Brewers do it.  Disdain for the Yankees, Dodgers and Mets et al runs deep as they spend their way to success it would seem. Full disclosure I can't stand the Yankees.

The current. state of the barren BP illustrates this point. We take solace in the successful conversion of former failed starters like Jax or Duran and assume somehow this can be repeated because it has happened.

Meanwhile other teams knowing it may not be money well spent are still spending big money on RP (Diaz, Finnegan, Jansen etc.). Nothing is stopping these teams to also convert their failed starters into competent MLB RP.  Falvey supposedly learned his lesson by the failure of signing Addison Reed a number of years ago so the Twins actively avoid this alternative.

The honest truth is the Twins have opted out of using all available methods to succeed. That is making a World Series appearance all the more improbable. (It's been 34 years since the Twins made it to the Fall Classic.)

[Whitey333]

Falvey is a joke.  He has mismanaged the payroll given him over the years.  Until recently the Twins were at the top or near the top in team payroll in the Central division.  Before the trades they were about 17 in payroll.  Not great but not bottom feeders until the past few years.  But to spend payroll dollars on players like Correa and Donaldson with out enough to build around them is just plain incompetence.   Attendance las year was at a 25 year low for the franchise.  That alone speaks volumes about how the fans feel about the teams direction.  Nothing has changed except even lower payroll.  Otherwise it's the same old bargain basement shopping and trying to sell hype and hope to fans and hope they buy into it.  It's not working.  Don't blame the Twins philosophy and direction on the fans.  

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I don't want them to sign any pricey free agents at all.  I do not want them to pretend to compete.  Play the kids. Build toward something better.  For the love of pete do something different. 

Yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes to all that! 

I am also not surprised that they are not going after any big name free agents, and that's fine. But I still wish the Twins would be more proactive and sign a few useful free agents that won't break the bank, maybe with the idea of building the bullpen back up again? I believe that is still a major issue. But alas, they will no doubt wait until February to make any sort of moves at all, and we will be lucky if any of those signings make a difference. 

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Even if it makes us drink.

Which I am doing more than usual tonight!

[Mahoning]

You have to wonder what the mysterious limited partners are looking for. The Pohlads have been busy driving down the value of the team. If the new investors are, as rumored, bringing in cash just to bring down the debt, they must be looking forward to a big payoff through a big increase in the team's value. That isn't going to come through signing Josh Bell. Can there be a genuine plan hidden somewhere?

[KirbyDome89]

29 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Think back to the free agents that had the most support here.  Hoskins was the bat and Montgomery was the arm.  We would not have been any better.  Yes, they should not have dialed back the spending but the assertion that spending would have made a big difference is not necessarily true.  Santana was actually better than Hoskins and Montgomery sucked.  Had they made those two popular moves they would have been worse.

Or that money is funneled into one player, or they could've swung a trade, or just signed other guys that weren't the worst possible outcome. Spending correlates with winning, that's an undeniable fact. 

[KirbyDome89]

19 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

For the time being, I've given up being worried about free agent spending for this club. Seems like when you have a roster near contention, you look at the gaps you have and target more aggressively in free agency to fill them. It's downright disgusting that this didn't happen in the 23-24 offseason, but we've all spent enough bile on that.

Now, I want all focus to be on development, development, development. We don't need a Bader or a France or even a Correa. We need some of the best scouts, coaches and training facilities in MLB.

I don't want them to spend a penny of Pohlad and pals precious cash on free agents this offseason. I want to see an organizational rebuild that will keep top talent from crashing out in year two of their MLB experience. I want young players to have a much smoother - and quicker - pathway to success. That's all I care about now. 

Honest question, how does any of this happen if Falvey remains in control? Also, do we want a rebuild if the decision maker who necessitated the overhaul is the architect?