Is "Building Around" The Current Roster Better Than A Rebuild?

[let the kids play]

Allowing Ryan or Buxton to be on the opening day Twins lineup is front office malpractice. They should have already been traded. Risking injury to either of these assets is putting this franchise in a hole it won't be able to crawl out of for years. Lopez can be held on to until the trade deadline if for some reason you are afraid the fans will think less of you as a team, by the way that doesn't seem possible. The worst thing you can do now is pretend you are something you are not. Rebuild, it's not a dirty word it just means you admit that it's over. Let's be honest in two years this whole group including ownership will probably be gone. At least they could say we did the right thing and put this franchise on the right track. Don't be the Pirates, Rockies or the Angels be the Twins.

[Dman]

9 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The question is only worth asking if the returns for Buxton, Lopez and Ryan are not very exciting (i.e. no top near-term projectable prospects and/or controllable proven with upside major leaguers are being offered).

Otherwise the question is essentially ludicrous if not for our sweet talking but delusional GM and the naive Nephew.

This team has exactly ONE above average major league position player and he will be lucky to play 100 games. Jeffers is around average, but the rest of the entire position player lineup is decidedly, unambiguously below average.  There is no money nor trade assets (unless Falvey reaches into our cadre of top prospects - which would be a firable offense) to change that scenario.  All the retread vets Falvey can muster up signing for peanuts are not going to change that. It’s a real Hail Mary to think Falvey can somehow recreate his biggest FA victory (Santana) despite all his other failures or that somehow many, if not most, of Lewis, Wallner, Clemens, Martin, Lee, Julien, Larnach, etc are going to suddenly start producing at much higher levels.

Let’s turn to the mound.  We have exactly TWO above average pitchers on the ENTIRE staff, including the bullpen.  Lopez and Ryan can theoretically keep games close for 5-6 innings; however, a lack of run support and what is arguably on paper one of the weakest bullpens in the league will not result in many victories from their starts. Sure, SWR and Ober are decent #4 types; but, the run support and bullpen issues are only magnified when they take mound.

The HOPE is that several young converted prospect starters, a couple of holdovers, and a few bottom of the barrel newcomers can somehow be cobbled together to form an effective bullpen. But an “effective” bullpen is not enough to consistently win if the run support is atrocious.

To further darken the outlook, the elation once realized upon Rocco’s dismissal quickly turned to despair with the hiring of the “already proven unsuccessful managing a low spending team” Shelton.  The hiring of Shelton feels a bit like the Falvey equivalent of signing retreads like Gallo, Margot, France, etc. etc.  That may be more than a bit harsh, but Shelton’s arrival is not being taken by anyone as a likely game changing manoeuvre.

This all is a decidedly dark (and long, for which I apologize) take. Understood.  But there is no data, precedent, or any other solid reason to come to any more likely conclusion. 

However, going back to the opening premise: if the market for Lopez, Ryan or Buxton just isn’t there right now, than there may not be much choice than to make a few small additions to see if the Hail Mary might work and the team somehow catches lightning in a bottle.  We can only hope.  But if not, we can also only hope that Ryan, Lopez, and Buxton remain healthy and productive, their market opens up as the year progresses and Falvey can actually be smart and flexible enough to pivot to building for ‘28.

I think this is pretty much how I feel about the situation.  The other side of this coin though is how much more bad baseball can fans take and not lose almost complete interest in the team?  It's tough to watch a bad team all season.  I checked out early in 2025 until they went on that winning streak and I'm a pretty big fan of the team.

It's a fine line between competing and being in it and just completely out of it with little to hope for your team.  In the end I think I agree with what the Owners\FO are doing.  Keeping some core players and seeing what area's of the team improve or don't improve.  They can still get good returns at the deadline if this whole thing falls in on them.  If they look like a team on the rise then why not keep guys around that can give you a better chance?  if winning is in the cards then at the very least they should be able to get comp picks for Ryan and Lopez in the end.

I can see it both ways, but prefer having a shot at being good this year.

[mikelink45]

Has anyone noticed the Tigers signed Jansen, traded for a Relief prospect from the Jays, and brought back RP Finnegan?  They seem to be building around their core and filling their BP.  BP pitchers have been seen in a lot of transactions - the Twins might like their core, but the BP was decimated and requires some reliable veteran arms that we do not have. 

For instance Cleveland sign RP Holderman and signed a Rule V RP.

KC signed Lane Thomas and acquired Isaac Collins for their OF - not big news, but they too are building around their core - Bobbie Witt, Maikel, Perez.  And they got RP Nick Mears in one trade and  signed Kevin Newman and Jose Cuas for their BP.

Building around their core is a AL Central strategy - not bringing in any help for that core is obviously only a MN Twins strategy. 

[SkyBlueWaters]

After the dust settled and my gloom lifted in early August, I looked at the pieces left and was actually cautiously optimistic. The toughest thing to develop/acquire is starting pitching. (Joe Ryan is right that letting Sonny Gray go earlier was the worst recent move.) Otherwise, we have an excellent core for the rotation. A lot easier to find no. 4 or 5 starters than it is to find an ace.

Beyond our top 3, we have a lot of arms to pick from as far as bullpen and 4 & 5 starters. It’s very much up in the air, and could either work well or blow up in their (our) faces.

Signing a veteran or 2 to anchor the back of the bullpen could add much stability. I’d be forgiving if the spring saw bullpen struggles while finding answers for summer and early autumn.

A lot also hinges on whether Royce Lewis can develop and complement Buck. A big bat at first would be huge. Lots of questions, including lots of potential.

[Coach Wheels]

15 hours ago, nova_twins said:

It's pure fantasy to think the Twins can accomplish anything by going into "rebuild" mode. They don't have enough assets to make any difference. They should try to win as best they can under the budgetary constraints, end of story.

Playing in the AL Central makes for the theme of a modest budget being competitive. The Tigers shopping Skubal is an example of everyone in the Central lives modestly with payroll.

However, there's "modest" and then there are the Twins; $110 million will not make this team better than Detroit, Cleveland, or KC and the White Sox might be closing in.  Let's see season ticket sales tank and attendance go to about 1 million this summer and maybe then, a buyer will emerge and change can happen. I have no expectations for the Pohlads or Falvey making this better.

[Whitey333]

Im becoming more and more convinced that they need to trade Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, maybe Jeffers.  I don't like losing those players but we finished with 92 losses last year.  Their trade value may never be higher than it is now.  Even with those players we are a long way from being a contender plus it would seem unlikely that ownership would be willing to give them extensions when they come up.  May as well go full rebuild and finally see what if anything these over hyped can't miss prospects can do.  Besides the fans are already tuned out as las year marked their lowest attendance in 25 years.  Unfortunately Falvey just comes across as just a bag of wind.  He continues to sell hype and hope.  Hype the unproven prospects and hope the ever shrinking fan base buys into it.  So far that strategy has failed miserably.

[TopGunn#22]

If, as the company line is now, the Twins actually DID want to "build around their core stars" there would be no consideration of a $95-$110 million dollar payroll.  The payroll would be in the $135-$140 range.  A competent Closer would have been signed (let's just say Ryan Helsley as an example).  A clear upgrade at 1B would already have taken place.  Another solid BP option would have been added as well.  And a solid veteran bat would have been added in an outfield with questions everywhere other than Buxton.  

Instead, they drafted a Catcher in the Rule 5 (Susac) and immediately traded him to the S.F. Giants for a 17 year old Catcher.  That is clearly what a rebuilding team does...trades an asset that could help them now for a future asset that could help in, say, 4 years.  

This team lost over 90 games last year with Buxton having a career year and Joe Ryan having his best season.  There are a lot of smart guys on TD and I don't think any of us expect the Twins to compete for the division this year or even challenge for a Wild Card spot.  The A.L. East is loading up for war.  It's quite possible 2 of the Wild Cards come from there, in addition to the division winner.

The other teams in the A.L. Central (not counting the White Sox) have already made moves to strengthen their teams.  For a team that says their going to build around their "stars" the Twins haven't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.  If they truly WERE going to compete, they'd have been aggressive and secured a couple of valued assets already.  Instead, it's business as usual, waiting for the dust of activity to settle and then scrounging in what's left in the bargain bins.  

The Twins ownership and FO has always left fans frustrated by this kind of behavior, or "strategy" if you could call it that.  They would be better off just being honest and informing the fans that a rebuild is coming.  Buxton is 32.  He is fragile.  He's coming off a career year.  He's willing to waive his no-trade clause.  He won't be around in 2027 or 2028 when the young talent begins to settle in.  Ryan and Lopez are 30 year old pitchers, who while talented, probably aren't going to shine with a poor defensive, 90-loss team.

Trading them now, during this off season would bring more talent than at the deadline, when the risk of injury or less than stellar stats would hurt value.  Ober is still a decent asset but should be moved to allow young pitchers a chance to find their footing.  An Ober (20.4 value) to the D-backs for Jordan Lawler (19.4 value) is just the type of trade this team should have already made.  Lawler could play SS, 2B, 3B and even CF.  He'd be a perfect young player to take a chance on, who, with regular AB's could take a big step.  He's stuck behind a couple of All Stars in Marte and Perdomo.  

Attendance was the lowest in years last year.  The ownership is despised.  The FO not trusted and reviled.  The roster is that of a 90-loss team.  When the Twins get off to a slow start things will get worse (if you can believe they will get worse) quickly.  When the eventual selloff happens as the Twins are trying to hold the White Sox off from falling into last place, the fans will get even more angry.  

A rebuild, with fresh faces and a modicum of hope for the future could get them through 2026.  But with the current "hopium" the team is selling now, and with a projected payroll or $95-$110 million, there isn't any "real" plan to build around their core.  It's just lip service.  

[tony&rodney]

This post and the comments within are a good reflection of the Minnesota Twins and their fans. The poll that showed an even split between those who believe a rebuild is needed versus those who want additions to what is rostered is clear from the comments. The discussion included numerous reasonable arguments from each side. 

If one takes the front office at their word, a decision to roll it back has already been made. All fans can do now is wait and watch for how the remainder of the offseason plays out. 

 

[TNtwins85]

8 hours ago, Dman said:

I think this is pretty much how I feel about the situation.  The other side of this coin though is how much more bad baseball can fans take and not lose almost complete interest in the team?  It's tough to watch a bad team all season.  I checked out early in 2025 until they went on that winning streak and I'm a pretty big fan of the team.

It's a fine line between competing and being in it and just completely out of it with little to hope for your team.  In the end I think I agree with what the Owners\FO are doing.  Keeping some core players and seeing what area's of the team improve or don't improve.  They can still get good returns at the deadline if this whole thing falls in on them.  If they look like a team on the rise then why not keep guys around that can give you a better chance?  if winning is in the cards then at the very least they should be able to get comp picks for Ryan and Lopez in the end.

I can see it both ways, but prefer having a shot at being good this year.

This is the Pohlads fallback position. I’ve stated this several times on Twinsdaily that you can see the plan. The Pohlads have never blown it up when they should have. They hold on to their 2-3 guys to stay “competitive”. In the Pohlads mind “competitive” means they keep guys they should’ve traded to simply claim they’re still “competing”. Through 3 different GM’s/PBO’s this has been the case now. Do I believe they can compete in the central? Yes. But, that’s accompanied by several moves to maximize this core. Maybe Falvey can do what Macphail and Ryan could not. Maybe third time is the charm. In the end three generations of Pohlads have overseen this same situation and it brought us the late 90’s Twins and the 2011-2016 Twins. So sit back and enjoy the show. All while other teams completely tore themselves down to make future legitimate runs at a WS and the Twins continually find themselves back in the same place over 35 years.

Edited December 14, 2025 by TNtwins85
Wording.

[jorgenswest]

10 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee have been sustaining success by routinely trading established players for prospects.  The 2025 Brewers had 13 players with 1.5+ WAR.  7 of them were acquired by trading established players.  Their top 3 SPs by WAR were all acquired in trade. 

Did they trade them as early as the Twins traded Duran, Varland and Jax? It seems like they trade them with 1 year of control or 1+ years at the deadline in a season they didn’t make the playoffs similar to the Berrios deal. The Brewers and Guardians do a good job of maximizing and utilizing the peak value of their players before trading them. The Twins did that with Berrios. They didn’t with Duran, Jax and Varland.

The Brewers received 9 players for Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Josh Hader. I only see one that had even 1 WAR on the roster last year in Caleb Durbin. He is a solid player but a 101 OPS+ at 3B isn’t a difference maker. Contreras was acquired for a prospect in a three team deal. Yelich was acquired for prospects. Peralta was acquired a decade ago for a one year rental in Adam Lind that would be similar to the Twins trading Bader. Who are the other 6 players acquired in deals for players like Ryan or Lopez or Buxton?

Do the Brewers need to keep their impact players to get to the World Series? They had control of Burnes in 2024. In season he would have helped get them the bye. Then he starts game 1 of the divisional series against a team that probably can’t go with their number 1 or 2. Do they make the World Series if they keep him? They need impact players to win the World Series. Their return of DJ Hall and Joey Ortiz hardly seems worth losing a season of a Cy Young caliber pitcher.

 

 

[Doube Duty Dave]

I would definitely build around this team's YOUNG core and pitching depth. Pitching is hard to develop and I think Falvey has done a good job of acquiring quality arms. Apel and Zebby have a chance to be very, very good, Bradley can be a decent 3 or 4 starter, and the minor league system is loaded with potential. Just by playing the laws of probability at least one or two of the pitchers like Festa, Raya, Sota, Preilip, Morris, Klein, etc. are going to be at least serviceable pitchers on a good team. I wouldn't trade from this strength to acquire marginal, journeymen bats. Instead, I would keep Ryan, Lopez and Buxton and let the young arms buck. This is a strategy that is a bridge to the stud bats like Jenkins that are coming soon. Falvey, please go out and find a free agent bat or two. That's the problem with this team. On a controversial note, the Twins absolutely need to keep and play Larnach, and Lee is going to be a stud hitter - may win a batting title. His hands are too good for him to fail. The criteria I would use when looking for hitters is someone who has a real chance to get a knock with a runner on third base with two outs. In other words... BATTING AVERAGE MATTERS. OPS is fine and WAR is okay, but tell me you want Wallner or Clemens in the box in a tie game with two outs in the ninth with a runner on third. Wallner batted .202 and Clemens .213. That's the type of BA that pitchers used to have! This team is not going to compete for a World Series next season, but they can take developmental steps forward. If a couple of prospects become superstars, in a couple of years, who knows? If it appears that this plan isn't going to work, Buxton and Lopez can be dealt at the trade deadline. Under no circumstance would I trade Ryan. He's your ace for the next five years. 

[shimrod]

34 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

f, as the company line is now, the Twins actually DID want to "build around their core stars" there would be no consideration of a $95-$110 million dollar payroll.  The payroll would be in the $135-$140 range.  A competent Closer would have been signed (let's just say Ryan Helsley as an example).  A clear upgrade at 1B would already have taken place.  Another solid BP option would have been added as well.  And a solid veteran bat would have been added in an outfield with questions everywhere other than Buxton. 

Correct. Bottom line the FO is lying about their intentions. We can hope the FO is only lying to the fan base and not lying to themselves. If they think they're going to field a competitive team by building around the "core" with whatever scraps remain after free agency they're frankly delusional. 

I still think the intent is to trade Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, and likely Jeffers. Rebuild after the CBA is settled. 

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, Doube Duty Dave said:

This team is not going to compete for a World Series next season, but they can take developmental steps forward. If a couple of prospects become superstars, in a couple of years, who knows? If it appears that this plan isn't going to work, Buxton and Lopez can be dealt at the trade deadline. Under no circumstance would I trade Ryan. He's your ace for the next five years. 

This is the stance that half of the people chose in the poll and half are supporting in the comments. So. .... that is fine.

It is a little confusing why you choose to add players around YOUNG core but then trade Buxton and Lopez at the trade deadline. This needs an explanation. At least I'm curious what you are thinking.

Buxton is under contract for three more seasons. Lopez still has two more years on his contract. Both make a substantial amount of money on fair but earn slightly beneath market rates. To carry it further you say Ryan is the team's ace for the next five years. Ryan has two more years before free agency. If he is good, the Twins will need to beat the next highest bidder and the cost could easily reach $200M by the beginning of the 2028 season if Joe puts together solid seasons in 2026 and 2027. Will the Twins pay up? 

 

[terrydactyls]

41 minutes ago, shimrod said:

Correct. Bottom line the FO is lying about their intentions. We can hope the FO is only lying to the fan base and not lying to themselves. If they think they're going to field a competitive team by building around the "core" with whatever scraps remain after free agency they're frankly delusional. 

I still think the intent is to trade Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, and likely Jeffers. Rebuild after the CBA is settled. 

I have been reading the last paragraph of your post for the last five minutes attempting to figure out what you are trying to say.  Why trade these players now if you aren't going to rebuild until mid-season 2027 (when the CBA is hopefully signed)?

[LambchoP]

I don't get why they would do a major teardown at the 25 deadline, only to change their minds in the off-season and say no more rebuild, we're going to compete. Not a smart baseball move. I think ownership just realized that if they traded any more vets, Buxton would've jumped ship, signaling that this team was dead, and they'd sell no tickets in '26, only adding to the massive debt the Pohlads are already in. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

If, as the company line is now, the Twins actually DID want to "build around their core stars" there would be no consideration of a $95-$110 million dollar payroll.  The payroll would be in the $135-$140 range.  A competent Closer would have been signed (let's just say Ryan Helsley as an example).  A clear upgrade at 1B would already have taken place.  Another solid BP option would have been added as well.  And a solid veteran bat would have been added in an outfield with questions everywhere other than Buxton.  

Instead, they drafted a Catcher in the Rule 5 (Susac) and immediately traded him to the S.F. Giants for a 17 year old Catcher.  That is clearly what a rebuilding team does...trades an asset that could help them now for a future asset that could help in, say, 4 years.  

This team lost over 90 games last year with Buxton having a career year and Joe Ryan having his best season.  There are a lot of smart guys on TD and I don't think any of us expect the Twins to compete for the division this year or even challenge for a Wild Card spot.  The A.L. East is loading up for war.  It's quite possible 2 of the Wild Cards come from there, in addition to the division winner.

The other teams in the A.L. Central (not counting the White Sox) have already made moves to strengthen their teams.  For a team that says their going to build around their "stars" the Twins haven't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.  If they truly WERE going to compete, they'd have been aggressive and secured a couple of valued assets already.  Instead, it's business as usual, waiting for the dust of activity to settle and then scrounging in what's left in the bargain bins.  

The Twins ownership and FO has always left fans frustrated by this kind of behavior, or "strategy" if you could call it that.  They would be better off just being honest and informing the fans that a rebuild is coming.  Buxton is 32.  He is fragile.  He's coming off a career year.  He's willing to waive his no-trade clause.  He won't be around in 2027 or 2028 when the young talent begins to settle in.  Ryan and Lopez are 30 year old pitchers, who while talented, probably aren't going to shine with a poor defensive, 90-loss team.

Trading them now, during this off season would bring more talent than at the deadline, when the risk of injury or less than stellar stats would hurt value.  Ober is still a decent asset but should be moved to allow young pitchers a chance to find their footing.  An Ober (20.4 value) to the D-backs for Jordan Lawler (19.4 value) is just the type of trade this team should have already made.  Lawler could play SS, 2B, 3B and even CF.  He'd be a perfect young player to take a chance on, who, with regular AB's could take a big step.  He's stuck behind a couple of All Stars in Marte and Perdomo.  

Attendance was the lowest in years last year.  The ownership is despised.  The FO not trusted and reviled.  The roster is that of a 90-loss team.  When the Twins get off to a slow start things will get worse (if you can believe they will get worse) quickly.  When the eventual selloff happens as the Twins are trying to hold the White Sox off from falling into last place, the fans will get even more angry.  

A rebuild, with fresh faces and a modicum of hope for the future could get them through 2026.  But with the current "hopium" the team is selling now, and with a projected payroll or $95-$110 million, there isn't any "real" plan to build around their core.  It's just lip service.  

For those of us who have watched the Twins for the entirety of this front office regime, I think this comment is right on. Opportunities have been passed up and numerous easy options not taken. The Twins wait.

To add to this, I am totally flummoxed as to why the Falvey put out statements pulling the Twins guys off the trade market. There is not and was not anything to gain from stating that Lopez, Buxton, and Ryan would be retained and the Twins would add around them. 

In late July it is fairly clear that ownership had a sit down with Falvey and directed a reduction in salary outlays. Falvey was to choose how that proceeded and he determined that the expiring contracts and moving Duran would satisfy the bosses. Thus teams called the Twins and a host of conversations took place where offers and counter offers were made and unexpected offers extended. The Twins spent the vast portion of that time working on the transaction with the Phillies, finally accepting Mick Abel as a replacement for their desired target Andrew Painter.Among the unexpected offers were ones for Joe Ryan and one for Louis Varland. The Twins listened to the Toronto offer and decided it was too good to be true ... deal done. There was hesitation on the Ryan offer and the clock ran out before negotiations could be completed. Meanwhile Jim Pohlad called the Houston owner and hammered out the Correa situation. Is there TD disagreement with the above?

Fast forward from July 31 to now and I'm wondering why Falvey cannot be listening and in conversations with numerous teams about a variety of potential transactions. In fact there may be some talks going on. I don't know. However, why take the main choices off the menu? That would seem to undermine the team. Listening on Varland brought an offer which could not be refused according to Falvey (I would have refused). Keeping the lines of communication open might bring about several much better offers. WTF is going on in corporate headquarters when top management is hamstringing production?

Adding to the team at this point of the offseason is still possible but the choices are getting slim and the prices seem to be rising too. I'll take Bo Bichette, Pete Fairbanks, Caleb Thielbar, and Ryan O'Hearn. There, the Twins have now adding a few guys around their core to help them a little bit. 

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee have been sustaining success by routinely trading established players for prospects.  The 2025 Brewers had 13 players with 1.5+ WAR.  7 of them were acquired by trading established players.  Their top 3 SPs by WAR were all acquired in trade.  

I think it's very reasonable to say that trading Ryan / Lopez and perhaps Buxton would have a good chance of producing well above average major league players.  The Twins will have that much less talents for 6-7 years post 2027.   That's the cost.  If the gain is a couple of years of very good teams but I don't think it's reasonable to believe marginal improvements to a terrible team will produce a playoff run.  

How many players above 4 war did they get by trade? 

[Doube Duty Dave]

24 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is the stance that half of the people chose in the poll and half are supporting in the comments. So. .... that is fine.

It is a little confusing why you choose to add players around YOUNG core but then trade Buxton and Lopez at the trade deadline. This needs an explanation. At least I'm curious what you are thinking.

Buxton is under contract for three more seasons. Lopez still has two more years on his contract. Both make a substantial amount of money on fair but earn slightly beneath market rates. To carry it further you say Ryan is the team's ace for the next five years. Ryan has two more years before free agency. If he is good, the Twins will need to beat the next highest bidder and the cost could easily reach $200M by the beginning of the 2028 season if Joe puts together solid seasons in 2026 and 2027. Will the Twins pay up? 

 

Those are fair points. The reason I move on from Buxton and Lopez is that they are older and beginning their years of regression. The move would be a logical step in a more aggressive restocking/rebuilding effort. You'll get more for them at the deadline that you will now. It's logically inconsistent for me to suggest keeping Ryan. I'm old school and believe that aces are a rare commodity. I don't trade aces as a matter of principle. Perhaps we'll have new owners when it comes time to re-sign Ryan. If not, we can deal him during the final year of his contract. In the meantime, we get to enjoy the "experience."

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, Doube Duty Dave said:

Those are fair points. The reason I move on from Buxton and Lopez is that they are older and beginning their years of regression. The move would be a logical step in a more aggressive restocking/rebuilding effort. You'll get more for them at the deadline that you will now. It's logically inconsistent for me to suggest keeping Ryan. I'm old school and believe that aces are a rare commodity. I don't trade aces as a matter of principle. Perhaps we'll have new owners when it comes time to re-sign Ryan. If not, we can deal him during the final year of his contract. In the meantime, we get to enjoy the "experience."

Ok, thank you for the explanation. My thing is that I'm interested to hear what others think even if I may agree or disagree with one thing or another. 

FWIW, Pablo Lopez is less than two months older than Joe Ryan. Byron Buxton is 2 and a half years older than Ryan. 

I too enjoy watching Ryan pitch.

[LastOnePicked]

23 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I don't get why they would do a major teardown at the 25 deadline, only to change their minds in the off-season and say no more rebuild, we're going to compete. Not a smart baseball move. I think ownership just realized that if they traded any more vets, Buxton would've jumped ship, signaling that this team was dead, and they'd sell no tickets in '26, only adding to the massive debt the Pohlads are already in. 

It's yet another sign that the people involved in decision-making are just so over their heads. They don't have a vision, a plan or the skills required to put a winning plan into action. They aren't villains or bad people or anything like that - they just are making it clear with every action that the organization is totally rudderless. And that lack of leadership has a way of filtering down to on-the-field play.

They simply don't know what they're doing, so it's no wonder we fans are also confused.

[bean5302]

I would rather rebuild than go out there with a $110MM payroll. Why not just keep the payroll at $90MM? It's not like the $20MM makes any material difference to this team.

Why you rebuild? Because virtually every single World Series team in the past decade has a rebuild which preceeded the World Series run. Small market, mid market, large market. Doesn't matter. With the exceptions of the ultra-market teams, rebuilds are almost required if you feel like ever sniffing a World Series. While free agent cost per WAR is about $8MM, the overall cost per WAR in baseball is more like $2MM (including free agency). That's why rebuilding is required. You have to start with a very good, cheap, cost controlled core, then add a few free agents on top because they're way too expensive to use exclusively.

A replacement level team is projected to be about 45-117. 
90 wins through free agency = 90 - 45 = 45 added WAR * 8 = $370MM in payroll.
90 wins through average cost = 90 - 45 = 45 * 2 = $90MM in payroll.

The Twins have 2 years of competitive window left. 2026 and 2027. If they don't make the World Series in the next two years with the existing core, they will have burned every bit of trade value they've got on their biggest assets with nothing in return.

This team lost 92 games last year with what was arguably the best bullpen in baseball prior to the trade deadline, plus Correa, Bader and Castro. Can we get real about how good this team was, and about the expectations of what the team might be in 2026? This is likely a very bad team.

Fangraphs is bizzarely bullish on the Twins by predicting several career years next year. FGDC vs. Steamer

Jeffers	2.6	2.3	*
Clemens	0.8	0.6
Keaschall	3.2	2.6	*
Lee	2.1	1.6	*
Lewis	2.6	2.2
Martin	1	0.8
Buxton	3.3	2.9
Wallner	1.8	1.5
Larnach	1	0.8
	18.4	15.3
Ryan	3.4	3.4	*
Lopez	3.2	3.2
Ober	1.7	1.7
SWR	1.2	1.2
Matthews	1.7	1.7	*
Bradley	1.4	1.4	*
Abel	0.6	0.6	*
	13.2	13.2
*Career year projected

Total WAR (bullpen WAR is only like 2 for each) 33 WAR for the main guys for FGDC (78 wins) and 30 WAR (75 wins) for Steamer plus a BUNCH from the bench, I guess.

This feels like a 75ish win team as-is. $20MM of payroll gets us, what, 2-3 more wins. So the Twins might be a .500 ballclub at $110MM or a 70 win ball club if they rebuild. It does not matter. At the end of the year, it does not matter. This team is a long shot to make the playoffs. If the team goes to $110MM and wins 75 games this year, then the team wins 75 games for the next 3 years. But, if they go down to 70 wins this year, they might go to the World Series in 2027.

[Dennesey55347]

20 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The question is only worth asking if the returns for Buxton, Lopez and Ryan are not very exciting (i.e. no top near-term projectable prospects and/or controllable proven with upside major leaguers are being offered).

Otherwise the question is essentially ludicrous if not for our sweet talking but delusional GM and the naive Nephew.

This team has exactly ONE above average major league position player and he will be lucky to play 100 games. Jeffers is around average, but the rest of the entire position player lineup is decidedly, unambiguously below average.  There is no money nor trade assets (unless Falvey reaches into our cadre of top prospects - which would be a firable offense) to change that scenario.  All the retread vets Falvey can muster up signing for peanuts are not going to change that. It’s a real Hail Mary to think Falvey can somehow recreate his biggest FA victory (Santana) despite all his other failures or that somehow many, if not most, of Lewis, Wallner, Clemens, Martin, Lee, Julien, Larnach, etc are going to suddenly start producing at much higher levels.

Let’s turn to the mound.  We have exactly TWO above average pitchers on the ENTIRE staff, including the bullpen.  Lopez and Ryan can theoretically keep games close for 5-6 innings; however, a lack of run support and what is arguably on paper one of the weakest bullpens in the league will not result in many victories from their starts. Sure, SWR and Ober are decent #4 types; but, the run support and bullpen issues are only magnified when they take mound.

The HOPE is that several young converted prospect starters, a couple of holdovers, and a few bottom of the barrel newcomers can somehow be cobbled together to form an effective bullpen. But an “effective” bullpen is not enough to consistently win if the run support is atrocious.

To further darken the outlook, the elation once realized upon Rocco’s dismissal quickly turned to despair with the hiring of the “already proven unsuccessful managing a low spending team” Shelton.  The hiring of Shelton feels a bit like the Falvey equivalent of signing retreads like Gallo, Margot, France, etc. etc.  That may be more than a bit harsh, but Shelton’s arrival is not being taken by anyone as a likely game changing manoeuvre.

This all is a decidedly dark (and long, for which I apologize) take. Understood.  But there is no data, precedent, or any other solid reason to come to any more likely conclusion. 

However, going back to the opening premise: if the market for Lopez, Ryan or Buxton just isn’t there right now, than there may not be much choice than to make a few small additions to see if the Hail Mary might work and the team somehow catches lightning in a bottle.  We can only hope.  But if not, we can also only hope that Ryan, Lopez, and Buxton remain healthy and productive, their market opens up as the year progresses and Falvey can actually be smart and flexible enough to pivot to building for ‘28.

Pin this perfect summarization! 

It's simply crazy how few star cornerstone position players the Twins have had over the last decade. 

[mluebker]

With so little to build ON, they have to build "around."

[Major League Ready]

50 minutes ago, old nurse said:

How many players above 4 war did they get by trade? 

They had exactly one player eclipse 4 fWAR last year.  Were all of the other players irrelevant to producing 97 wins?  They had two 4+ WAR players in 2024. (Contreras & Adames)  Both acquired in trades.  Contreras 2023.  Contreras has less than 600 ABs when acquired and had produced a total of 2 WAR so he basically had Julien's pedigree when acquired.  Even Yehlich has not produced 4 WAR in the past 6 years.  

 

[old nurse]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

They had exactly one player eclipse 4 fWAR last year.  Were all of the other players irrelevant to producing 97 wins?  They had two 4+ WAR players in 2024. (Contreras & Adames)  Both acquired in trades.  Contreras 2023.  Contreras has less than 600 ABs when acquired and had produced a total of 2 WAR so he basically had Julien's pedigree when acquired.  Even Yehlich has not produced 4 WAR in the past 6 years.  

 

Do you have a concept about outliers?

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Do you have a concept about outliers?

Kindly rephrase.

[jkcarew]

You don’t “build around” guys with spectacular injury histories or guys you’re going to let walk in free agency in two years. But 95% of the fan base keeps swallowing the bait, so…it continues.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Did they trade them as early as the Twins traded Duran, Varland and Jax? It seems like they trade them with 1 year of control or 1+ years at the deadline in a season they didn’t make the playoffs similar to the Berrios deal. The Brewers and Guardians do a good job of maximizing and utilizing the peak value of their players before trading them. The Twins did that with Berrios. They didn’t with Duran, Jax and Varland.

The Brewers won 92 games in 2023 and traded Burnes that winter.  The next season they won 93 games.  The two teams were not in remotely similar situations which is why we are discussing if a rebuild is the best idea.  We would not be having that conversation had the Twins won 92 games.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

Do you have a concept about outliers?

You need to elaborate because I am not sure what you are getting at.  Are you suggesting that other modest revenue teams that reached the playoffs did so because they acquired players that produced 4 WAR?  If the other Brewers teams I listed we ca look at other successful franchises and determine the relative impact of trading for prospects.   In the past 25 years, the Guardians have had seven 92 win teams and the Rays have six.  Players acquired as prospects produced 40% of the Rays WAR and 44% for the Guardians.  How many of those teams do you suppose make the playoffs without the players they acquired as prospects?

[Steve J]

I think blowing up teams for prospects is generally a bad move nowadays as I believe that getting team building prospect hauls for good players is more rare than it used to be.  It's better to hold the faith of our fan base by putting the best team you can on the field.  I think the Twins can build a .500 or better team next year and improving your fan experience is better than cashing out once again for prospects and "the future".